Brexit 2020+

Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade

Precisely.

However your numbers are still wrong – clearly so.

Nope – you just need to do the arithmetic.

NOpe – yuou need to look at somafunks link

Yeah, it’s only about half our exports facing new hassle, expense and delays… what’s the worry, huh?

yuou need to look at somafunks link

I have

Which shows your numbers are wrong

So in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU. The EU has also negotiated or is in the process of negotiating trade deals with other countries, including Japan and Australia.

and the Wto rules mean that if we have no tarriffs on EU trade we can have no tarrifs with anyone

The numbers are very simple. Approx. 40% of our trade is with countries who do not belong to EU or are covered by an agreement. Approx. 50% is EU trade and therefore taken out. Therefore 40/50 equals 80%. Of the remaining 10%, 8% will be covered by rollover deals. 8/10 equals 80%. Actuals are slightly different and I was using more uptodate 2018 numbers than that article (2016), the broad numbers are similar.

TJ mefty did say 80% of our non EU trade which is the other ~40% in the fullfact link

He is wrong to say that won’t change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade

Which is partly why we’ll end up with some sort of deal.
Leaving with no deal would be an even bigger gift to Sturgeon

+ When will indyref2 be , is the going to be the next question, a no deal would see Sturgeon play her hand sooner, if a deal she’ll have to wait a wee bit longer
#BorisFarwellTour today was pretty desperate stuff , his popularity up there is so dire could he even fill Ibrox with his Scottish supporters 😜?

Then we have to remove the Blue from the Red White & Blue & rename ourselves..

Wangland ?
Lesser Britain ?
Little Britain ?

He is wrong to say that won’t change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade

Well the discussion was mainly about exports which wont change. As far as imports are concerned we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.

As far as improts is concern we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.

Unless we end up in reatilliatory tit for tat tariffs

Which would not be a benefit (see China/trump)

Replying to an hours old post on a fast moving thread is pointless.

Please ignore ;o)

TJ- The UK has the MHRA which issues guidance for pharmaceutical manufacturers and distributors, these are the guidelines we use, it is called the orange guide.

Our company also follows FDA guidelines for the US market, other rules for ROW are VICH guidelines in our case.

Brexit Britain – will they bring back Betamax?

Kimbers – I did acknowledge the misreading of Meftys post

Dougie – what about the EMA?

Yes the MHRA guidelines are aligned to those.

In answer to someones post about the two types of brexiteers, for a start I have to work and I also have to sleep.

So what about these EU FTAs then?

What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?

Also regarding non-sequitirs, I am replying to more than one voice here.

I often think that certain elements of a no deal WTO type exit are often overlooked, after all pure free trade is a the heart of the ERG and Tory party in general so if you analyse what would happen under a WTO exit and a zero tariff environment you start to see how a Tory gov would survive…

1. Food and consumer food are likley to become cheaper ,(The Rees Mogg, Tim Wetherspoon argument) this would keep the Redwall Tory voters happy and in practical terms reduce the amount you need to pay people in both wages and benefits over an extended period. The downside is it will remove large parts of Farming and food production as well as manufacturing (but may protect the car industry in the UK)

2. The disaster capitalists will have their day.

3. Deregulation becomes the norm but the great unwashed dont care as beer is a £1 a pint and a new TV is a £100 and chickens are 3 for a £1.

4 no need for new customs posts/people and the whole of the UK is a freeport…

So what about these EU FTAs then?

What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?

All the Rollover FTAs we have so far are ~8% of UK trade, and not one of them represents an improvement on what we have now,
(& iirc only the Chile one stays exactly the same in case of No Deal brexit- even then, things like rules of origin mean our exports to them will be effected)

It’s a far cry from …

https://www.businessinsider.com/liam-fox-promises-to-sign-40-free-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

And what do we gain from our deal with the SADC, which includes South africa and Mozambique?

Quick google gives these figures; “Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion.”

So £10 billion?
When the total looks like this;
“In 2019, the UK’s exports of goods and services totalled £700 billion and imports totalled £724 billion”

I propose when all is said and done the UK economy looks more or less the same with a shift in trade to a more R.O.W focus, and yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.

What I dont see is the closing down sale that many on here would have us believe Bojo and his chums are planning.

Quick google gives these figures; “Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion.”

So £10 billion?

That’s not an increase of £10bn in trade

What it means is that an extra 10bn is stil covered by the FTA we had with the EU

All this has done is ensured we don’t lose out on some of the trade benefits the EU had got for us .

It still leaves us with huge costs to cover, way in excess of membership fee

yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.

When you say instability, you mean closures & job losses

more instability.

When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.

Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That’s “taking back control” for you.

This is handy

Bloomy estimate of what we gain/lose with FTAs & assuming we get an FTA with EU

What’s funny is Truss has asked her department to come up with a different USA FTA figure because she says 0.16% doesn’t ‘feel’ right

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-23/u-k-says-benefits-of-post-brexit-trade-deals-underestimated?__twitter_impression=true

yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.

Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?

Whats even funnier Kimbers is there will be no FTA with the EU as is becoming more obvious by the day thus the financial hit will be even greater and of course those no EU FTA have not been made yet in most cases.

When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.

Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That’s “taking back control” for you.

As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.

Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?

Hold on I got called out for speculation

Kimbers, your graph suggest to me a GDP shortfall of 0.6%

Thats a hit I dont think I have suggested there wont be a hit from realigning our economy.

Whilst the breakup of the UK is speculation at the moment under the GFA there is a right to have a border poll and in Scotland the SNP are heading for a landslide with a large pro independence majority and polling in both places shows a significant majority for independence.

As for financial services – a lot has already gone and much more will follow after the no deal crash out. iScotland will be in a uniquely advantageous place to attract them as its clear iScotland will just smoothly go back into the EU

Someone reposted the governments leave Brexit contract with the British people that they used during the referendum.
Number 1, EU Trade : Exact same benefits.
The rest are equally balls but somehow the people are getting what they voted for?

so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?

As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.

You know all those industries like motorbikes and cycles and ship building and cars and, and, well, Christ, the list is now almost endless.

You know how they all ****** off abroad?

You really are, on biblical scale, deluded. Stunning.

What? Triumph and BMW to where? China?

So it happens to German companies too?

You are saying thats a direct result of Brexit, or Globalisation and and increase in China’s high tech manufacturing industry?

so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?

But think of the long-term? Gig-economy and less red-tape for employers could herald unlimited earning potential if prepared to work hard for it. We could be like the USA in what, 15 years? Who would you rather bet your home/money/first-born on? One of this bunch of backwards-looking remainers who still cling to the EU:

Or would you prefer to be yachting around the 51st State of Biglygood?

Triumph already do much of their manufacturing in Thailand.

Financial services are moving – some already done so and many with plans to do so

The UK BMW operation will be run down as will Nisan – because they lose their ability to export into the EU. Nissan have already made it clear

Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?

It isn’t a question of want, doogie, it’s a last resort if I want to keep my business running as it does currently. I haven’t done the final move as it will cost more money and can be done in days when finally required. But I had to put the framework in place.

so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?

Not so bad? Estimates (2022, IIRC?) say Brexit will have soon recouped the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.

*Edit

Sorry. That should have been

Brexit will cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

I was momentarily affected by Brevidence to the contrary. Felt good though. I can see the attraction if I just bang head repeatedly at this door-frame some more.

Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?

People in Paris and Frankfurt can still speak/write in English.

Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.