Brexit 2020+

Shakelton – Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs

In general, the reason we have regulation is to protect employees and consumers from badly designed, potentially dangerous products. The same regulations allow you to whistle-blow for dodgy practices at work, and allow the HSE to stop you losing limbs, eyes, or catching cancer.

They are not there to deliberately stifle production or innovation unless you consider paying your workers below minimum wage and providing a safe working environment detrimental to your business.

I notice that Dyson is using Covid-19 as an excuse to ditch UK employees in advance of Brexit.

Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs

But we aren’t talking about deregulation, we are talking about trade. Most EU regulations are sensible and easy to comply with and are accepted globally as a sign of safety and quality so are sensible to comply with as they open you trade options. Deregulation is generally acknowleged to limit higher value export trade. Most export business will have to continue to comply with EU or equivalent standards but UK will have even less (read none) say in their setting.

Before you answer just stop, please go and read some informed commentators on global trade, have a think and then comment. Believing your opinion, based on poorly understood superficial observation, to be equivalent to fact is what caused this shitshow. Gets some facts on your side, understand the implications and then engage.

Sorry if that sounds patronising but I’m getting tired of dealing with people who gladly act in ignorance or out of prejudice.

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.

Am I to be told that this isn’t a cost we can recoup

So, OK, two things here:

1) this sounds like a big number, but in economic terms it’s buttons.

2) I said earlier on this thread that in my experience with conversations with leavers one of three things always happens when they’re proven wrong: They don’t reply and change the subject; they get angry and offensive; or they go quiet for a while before coming back with the same argument.

And you my little doggy friend very much fall into the first category. This is not having a discussion, this is you regurgitating ill-informed non sequitur after non sequitur. Which is a waste of both our time.

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You’re basing your opinion on a deal when you have absolutely no idea what the implications of that deal may be?
Incredible.

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.

Because at this moment in time “no deal” is what happens unless something changes between now and next year, it’s the default action. And yes it might well change and we all desperately hope you’re right. But betting the farm on it is up there with “thoughts and prayers” right now and patting yourself on the back for your cheery optimism doesn’t change shit. Hope for the best, expect the worst.

What do you mean by “a deal” exactly anyway? There are a thousand agreements to potentially consider, there’s no such thing as “a” deal. Do you mean a trade deal? Fine. What about ERASMUS? Open Skies? Galileo?

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

Ok….I’ll bite and reply seeing as others appear to have the patience of the reincarnated baby jesus

If (and at our current level of negotiations i seriously doubt we will) we manage to scrape a deal together it will be vastly inferior to our current deal, not because the EU wish to punish us but being a block of 27 countries they have a duty to protect their own interests and members, they have zero obligation to furnish us with a “world beating trade deal” (tm-gove).

Whatever deal we get WILL be inferior to our current arrangement

Oh, and,

You never answered my question (on the back of yours) as to how your industry certifies that your products are safe and legitimate for international export. Care to have a crack at that?

What makes you think we will get a deal?

Given that to get a deal ( unless johnson capitulates completely) Johnsons red lines are incompatible with EU law and treaties.

If Johnson does capitulate he will last about 5 mins and the deal will be repudiated

Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs – hello american fake cheese

Dougie says he’s in pharma?, is that “pharma” as in £6 per pill, two for £10 and a wrap of speed type pharma?

If it is he’s using far too much of his inventory for personal use.

Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs

This sort of takes a massive dump on your negotiating position in any trade deals,someone’s dropped a bollock on this.

Pharma – where was the EUs medicines regulatory body – london – but its gone, we can no longer use it, we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

I’m not, all the costs I listed previously, are ones we have to pay regardless
That £13bn in customs costs would not be reduced if we get a deal

I think we’ll get a deal, Johnson’s one is particularly unambitious and offers only small increases
The same for his USA one (and Truss is rounding her numbers up to get 0.16% over 15 years)
Johnson will sacrifice fisheries to keep Nissan here but…
When Scotland votes to leave, a quick entry in the EU will see Sturgeon trying to woo Nissan 70 miles North & avoid all those extra costs & delays of our new customs regime (applies to Airbus, pharma, etc)
Johnson will have to promise BIG to get them to stay & that is only going to be possible if he can get an agreement on state aid, which is the other major sticking point for an EU deal

we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body

Ours will be world beating thou 🙂

Aren’t you listening to anything we’re telling you? We become “other” overnight.

I sincerely hope he isn’t because he is being told a load of rubbish.

which bits Mefty?

Awaits detailed rebuttal from mefty…..

In 2018 just under 80% of our non Eu trade was done under WTO terms so the position will be unchanged whatever happens. Likewise just under 80% of our remaining non Eu trade is done with countries who have agreed to roll over deal, which will implemented under the terms of the Trade Bill. We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

And in your case TJ I have never seen you get anything right, I think you and Binners are performance artists.

So assuming we leave with no deal at the end of the year, how soon afterwards will we start to see the effects on the ground and what will these be?

Food and medicine shortages? Chaos at Dover? Masses of businesses going under and redundancies?

What are people going to notice and when?

We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

Who said we won’t be trading with the ROW?

No one said we couldn’t trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.

No one said we couldn’t trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.

Not with over 90% non EU trade it won’t, it will be on the same basis.

We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

But no one said we couldny trade with ROW

The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don’t comes close to that yet

Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?, 5 mins on google will give you the actual figures and it is nowhere near 80%.

Here you go

Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?

knock yourself out.

The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don’t comes close to that yet

The post I quoted from was suggesting without all the EU agreements we would find it very difficult to trade with the rest of the world. This is simply not the case as the numbers I have put up show.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

for an explanation of WTO terms. NOte carefully the stuff on most favoured nation status. without trade agreements we HAVE to treat everyone equally

Mefty – when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.

Or very simply put analysis showing just how disadvantageous WTO rules would be
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/wto-rules-explained-trade-tariffs-uk-after-brexit-agreement-391230

Mefty – it will be very difficult – read up on what WTO means. Useful links above

Mefty – when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.

Even in the autumn of one’s like it is not too late to acquire new skills.

Need to bush up on your maths? 120% of trade?

Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade

Which is a way of saying ~40% of our trade

But TJ has a point, under no deal MFN rules means if we do impose tariffs on any EU goods mefty is wrong to say

so the position will be unchanged whatever happens

Nice one somafunk – that shows exactly how much bollox Mefty is spouting

I do love the fact that in meftys world we can have more than 100%

My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.

squaredog – at the simplest level, any goods inc food, which are imported are likely to be more expensive and subject to delay at point of entry.
UK will become (even) less competitive so jobs/companies/business sectors will be under threat.
Financial services sector is major employer and significant economic contributor; as various posts ^^^ have stated, banks and others already have advanced plans to move (parts of) their businesses into European financial centres if/when circumstances dictate.
Job losses are inevitable – and they won’t be small scale.
Unless johnson capitulates in some way the impacts will become visible from early 2021 and become progressively worse.
Here’s a recent article about how few companies have prepared for no deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-poorly-prepared-companies-coronavirus

@mefty – But the numbers you put up have no factual basis. You might as well say 120% of our trade is done on WTO rules.

My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.

apologies – I did misread it

However your numbers are still wrong – clearly so.

And the reason UK has to build Farages Garage & all the extra customs infrastructure away from ports is to prevent the 50% of our trade with the EU causing snarl ups with the non EU half that enters/leaves via the same ports