Brexit 2020+

Yes I do reject this idea that brexit is necessarily a left/right issue, I would consider my self reasonably central on most issues. I once read on here “forget left/right, there is only up”

I voted leave in brexit because it was a simple question, “do you think we should leave?” That was as far as the question went.

I believe the ultimate goal of the EU is statehood (I may be wrong but that is my gut feeling and has been since I was young, I dont see any point in the EU otherwise). If the end goal is not to become further integrated what is it? If the EU is only a union why can we not leave on agreeable terms?

Why is everyone so adamant that there will not be a deal in the next 5 months?
I believe some sort of deal is very likely.

Johnsons red lines rules out a deal and it is clear that the negotiations are a sham

We could leave on agreeable terms if Johnson wanted a deal. What the UK side are insisting is they retain all they benefits without any of the obligations

TJ the negotiations were also a sham until it went to the wire last year, the same will happen this time.

On the subject of state aid, I really dont want to be in a club that has to bail out member states on a 10 year rolling period, this is what happens in the EU. There is a fundimental disparity between the economic output of the northern countries and the southern ones.

Helping truly disadvantaged people in Yemen/Syria/Bangladesh, I am fully for that.

Incorrect dougie

All that happened before was that Johnson went back to accept a position he had been offered earler and rejected. The EU did not move AT ALL

He sold it as a victory but it was a humiliating defeat

And the ERG, having campaigned for it, won the election on it and voted it through parliament, have now realised that it’s a crap agreement and want to repudiate it.

There is a fundimental disparity between the economic output of the northern countries and the southern ones.

You’re in Northern Ireland, yes? Have you not seen how inward investment from the rUK and the rEU has improved things there? And then the rest of us benefit later from our neighbour being better off?

TJ the negotiations were also a sham until it went to the wire last year, the same will happen this time.

Have you read about the differences between a trade deal and the withdrawal agreement, in terms of the process, the democratic ratification of them, and the implementation of them?

Dougie you just seem.to take as gospel everything the government says

Talks were not a sham until the last minute, that’s another brexiteer myth

Johnson’s deal is almost identical to May’s deal, which only didn’t pass BECAUSE HER OWN GOVERNMENT VOTED AGAINST IT !

Johnson’s pivot was to concede on a customs border in the Irish sea (breaking his promises as pointed out earlier)

Only other changes were to move guarantees on workers rights, food, environment protection etc- as demanded by US trade negotiators

You can see changes he made here….

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/withdrawal-agreement-act

As for

If the EU is only a union why can we not leave on agreeable terms?

We can leave easily but it’s only not ‘agreeable’ because we lose the benefits of membership & that shafts our manufacturing, farming, pharma, etc industries. And puts up barriers to half our exports
YOU voted for this if it’s not agreeable to you, maybe you should have paid a bit more attention to ‘project fear’

Why can I not leave my gym membership on agreeable terms? All I want is continued access to the facilities. Not asking too much surely?

So we’re back to… it you wanted us to leave the EU, what new arrangements did you want to be put in place dougie… or, if you considered that “someone else’s problem”, who are you trusting to form those arrangements and what have they done to win your trust in them doing so with your interests at heart?

Kimbers – Yes we have received the benefits of a club which we pay handsomely to be a part. A club with which we cannot now negotiate an agreeable relationship without facing financial ruin. Speaks volumes to me about the future direction of the EU as a federal state.

He moved the rights to the PD as I posted earlier, which he can be taken to task on.

I work in a Pharma company which exports to the US and EU markets, we already abide by all necessary regs for both markets, so what changes apart from having an office in an EU state? Which we already have.

Dougie wrote ‘it was a simple question, so I voted leave’

I admit to be losing interest in your ‘evidence’ at that point. Same with the ‘I’m alright Jack, I got my CT scans so don’t see a problem with privatisation of the NHS’

(I sincerely hope that you watched/will watch the docu video (About NHS) I posted as it’s usually worthwhile looking outside of our own bubble. Ironically, that’s why I asked you to provide me with some evidence that would help me see beyond mine.)

You may well be more the ‘gut-feeling’ type, as you state that was the reason you went with Leave (?)

Interesting, as (forgetting the L vs R sideshow/distraction) I deduced from the off that such was a key difference between voters going with Leave vs Remain.

Because the ‘remain’ campaign by it’s nature had to be evidence-driven. A very difficult task given the weight of data required not only to sell the remain argument but to counter the many myths and misunderstandings about the EU (most of which were planted into British ‘gut-feeling’ by decades of anti-EU tabloidism)

Meanwhile the ‘Leave’ campaign simply had to use the same tabloidism to appeal to ‘gut feelings’. Easy job.

Is that a fair assessment?

“do you think we should leave?” That was as far as the question went.

^ Speechless at this.

I work in a Pharma company which exports to the US and EU markets, we already abide by all necessary regs for both markets, so what changes apart from having an office in an EU state?

This is an easy one… we no longer set the EU regs.

A club with which we cannot now negotiate an agreeable relationship without facing financial ruin.

I thought that was project fear? The people now running the country promised us a better relationship with the EU, and others… didn’t they? Did they suggest anything like “financial ruin”? I would suggest that the UK will recover economically, but please, be open eyed about the changes that will have to occur for that to happen, and what the average brit is going to lose. What is happening may have been enabled by your vote… but at some point you need to become aware that it isn’t being done for your benefit… we are increasingly aware that is going to take a long time.

It’s hard to counter such a robust and comprehensive argument

Read again your post and think if they are the thoughts of a well-mannered adult. If you truly think that then you are part of the problem of the modern left, vilifying those who think different to you.

“Protect the things they love”, just because something makes you warm and fuzzy inside doesn’t mean you are right.

Again take a step back and rethink your post. There is more to the left and right than these heavily polarised 4-5 years.

you truly think that then you are part of the problem of the modern left, vilifying those who think different to you.

Agree. And the same goes for the ‘modern right’. Would anyone take bets on which side of centre are most commonly ‘vilifying others different than selves’?

‘L vs R’ is now at best a sideshow that went mainstream and has infected every area of social media to the point of global tabloidism

Its you guys on here that seem to be suggesting financial ruin. The great heist you were calling it?

The EU regs are very much in line with the MHRA which I dont see becoming any less stringent, because we along with the US very much had a part in writing those regs.

Malvern – that was the question that was put to the people? I’ve tried to explain my reasoning for my answer.

I see an attitude of lets see the problems and not the solutions in here. Which is why I originally made my echo chamber comment.

You folk still haven’t explained why an ever expanding and more deeply integrated EU state is such a good idea?

What happens when we eventually have to give up control of our banking and currency?

As you guys say no one trades on WTO rules so why would we suddenly be doing this?

Try asking Jenkyns dougie…

? WTO here we come! https://t.co/wDlS7IGwvs @MailOnline

— Dame Andrea Jenkyns ?? (@andreajenkyns) July 22, 2020

Malvern – that was the question that was put to the people? I’ve tried to explain my reasoning for my answer.

I see an attitude of lets see the problems and not the solutions in here. Which is why I originally made my echo chamber comment.

Imagine being awake in surgery and hearing the surgeon speaking to the nurse

‘(Outstretched hand) Gigli saw’
‘Dr?’
‘Quick now, saw. Before the local wears off’
‘But Dougie’s notes say he’s here for ‘assessment’?’
‘Let’s see the solutions before we see the problems’
‘But Dr…’
‘All I’m hearing now is an echo. Have no patience with you’ (grabs saw, begins sawing on left arm). Site-mark right leg please…’
‘Dr?’
‘Solutions first’

So under that we trade on the same terms as the US?

An echo chamber is a place you go to hear your unchallenged views reflected back on you, which this thread does.

Analogies to surgery may sound good in your head but don’t really serve the purpose of debate.

An echo chamber is a place you go to hear your unchallenged views reflected back on you, which this thread does.

Hang on.. you started this “echo chamber” line when we were posting links to the Telegraph and others suggesting that the UK was about to give up on a new deal with the EU (and the USA) and we were heading for a no deal Brexit… and you are arguing that we’re not. Yes? You think it’s just brinkmanship, and we’ll get a new deal at the last minute? I hope you’re right… but those of us who aren’t exactly mad keen on Brexit, or Johnson, or the Telegraph, are not perpetuating an “echo chamber” by posting links to content published by the Telegraph featuring news and comment we’d rather not hear.

You folk still haven’t explained why an ever expanding and more deeply integrated EU state is such a good idea?

The past 40 years of unparalleled peace, prosperity, health and freedom seems pretty compelling to me.

Of course, as an EU member, we got to help set the parameters of that integration, and our participation in it.

From the outside, we are just going to watch helplessly and cope with the consequences.

Yes we have received the benefits of a club which we pay handsomely to be a part. A club with which we cannot now negotiate an agreeable relationship without facing financial ruin. Speaks volumes to me about the future direction of the EU as a federal state.

No it doesn’t, it speaks volumes to the manner in which our economy has been restructured to take advantage of SM & CU membership

You can’t blame the EU for our own economic decisions!

And if you work in Pharma you are surely aware that UK has been the driving force behind EU pharma law, the loss and of the EMA meaning any new drugs will have to be certified by the MHRA as well as to the EU adding an extra layer of red tape for drugs to be sold on the UK
We’ll also be leaving the European Clinical Trials directive, so some of our participation in some of Europes (the world’s) biggest trials are in jeopardy, the trials based in UK need a new legal sponsor in EU
We now have a completely unnecessary & costly layer of bureaucracy

And as we lose our influence at the EMA & in Brussels we will still have to align with all their rules (according to government current plan) just no longer get a say in writing them.
I’m sure Swiss & German etc pharma will be keen to make sure that future rules benefit them over UK firms.

And on top of all that you have the issue of supply chains & customs checks requiring millions to be spent on stockpiling.

What happens when we eventually have to give up control of our banking and currency?

When do we have to do that ?

Conspiracy theories are nice but try & keep it factual!

I seem to a rather rare breed these days, a Brexit agnostic. I came down on the side of remain after much thought but don’t subscribe to the notion that anyone who voted the other way is an idiot and am also naturally wary of any forum or thread that seems heavily biased in one direction.

You can say that those who voted to leave didn’t really understand what that meant, but the same is true for most of those who voted to remain. We may have been part of the club for 40 years, but very few of us really know how it works or where it is going.

On balance I do think that the benefits of membership outweigh the costs, but I also wonder how a union between countries as diverse as Germany and Bulgaria can work long term. A loose trading arrangement between nation states could work, but the EU moved well beyond that years ago. You could ague that New York and Iowa are just as diverse, but that’s just making the case that the logical end point of the European project is some form of united states of Europe.

Calling the other side idiots doesn’t get us anywhere. Yes the details are complicated, but the basic principles aren’t. Are you happy with ever closer political and monetary union? If not (and you are prepared to take the consequences) then now is as good a time as any to get off the bus.

The hysteria about the NHS does make me laugh though. As if public vs private were a binary choice or the NHS should be preserved forever as it is now. There is already an internal market (in England at least). Services, such as dentists and opticians that used to be state funded are now private. Hospitals can (and do) already commission all sorts of services (from cleaning to diagnosis and treatment) from the private sector. If you want to limit private sector involvement in the NHS then you need to vote for a party that will do that. But that’s got very little to do with Brexit.

I fear that in an ever increasingly integrated EU,

From the outside, we are just going to watch helplessly and cope with the consequences

the UK as a member becomes what you said while still paying for the pleasure.

The concensus here is that the UK gov. is capable of a deep conspiracy against the population, but of course the EU bloc is incapable of that as it is a shining utopia.

I see an attitude of lets see the problems and not the solutions in here.

We keep asking you what you would like to replace membership with… but you offer no solutions. I posted the options as the Conservative government saw them before the referendum. Have a read, tell us what direction you think we should be taking. Ask yourself why this Vote Leave government is taking the one it is, whether it looks anything like what it sold the public in 2016, and if it benefits you, your family, your employer, your country, the UK as a whole… and so on.

What happens when we eventually have to give up control of our banking and currency?

With a statement like that its pretty clear you are all being trolled

the UK as a member becomes what you said while still paying for the pleasure.

As a member we had MEPs voting & sitting on committees(just coz Farage rtc never bothered to turn up & represent ULd interests is not EUs fault.
We had commissioners, a seat (& veto) on European Council, we had judges on ECJ etc etc

And yes we paid about £9bn a year, but the costs of the new customs regs alone is £7bn a year!!!!

We’re paying far more handsomely for the privilege of still having to follow almost all the regs without influencing them.

Calling the other side idiots doesn’t get us anywhere. Yes the details are complicated, but the basic principles aren’t. Are you happy with ever closer political and monetary union? If not (and you are prepared to take the consequences) then now is as good a time as any to get off the bus.

Yes. I agree that calling people ‘idiots’ doesn’t get anywhere. How about ‘hysterical’ instead?

The hysteria about the NHS does make me laugh though…

…If you want to limit private sector involvement in the NHS then you need to vote for a party that will do that. But that’s got very little to do with Brexit.

So you say. What evidence do you offer to counter concerns about MPs just voting against protecting the NHS from a post-Brexit trade deal? Are you happy with a Trade Bill that offers absolutely no protection for our NHS? Happy to risk of higher drug prices, private companies being able to sue the government if it tries to limit their ability to profit from our healthcare? Are you happy with opening up the door to the US getting their hands on it? If not (and you are prepared to take the consequences) then now is a pretty bad time as any pretend the writing wasn’t on the bus.

The concensus here is that the UK gov. is capable of a deep conspiracy against the population,

I don’t think it’s conspiracy, just unbridled hubris & incompetence (+ a natural reflex to lie their arses off, every time they screw up)

Are you happy with ever closer political and monetary union?

This is also a nonsense

We have a veto !

More to the point so do the populist leaders of Hungary, Poland, Italy etc etc
Exactly what closer union is on the horizon in the EU ?

I actually think closer union is no bad thing if done well, eg joining € only makes sense if ECB had greater powers.
Personally o couldn’t care less who’s face is on a coin

With a statement like that its pretty clear you are all being trolled

Don’t think it’s trolling or nonsense. The direction the eu so going is for more integration and a higher level of union. Hence a logical conclusion is that eventually we should adopt the euro. Otherwise we would be still half in half out. This at least stands from a 2016 perspective.

You can say that those who voted to leave didn’t really understand what that meant, but the same is true for most of those who voted to remain. We may have been part of the club for 40 years, but very few of us really know how it works or where it is going.

Which is why asking the question of the public was monumentally stupid in the first place.

As it was, it was only designed to bring the eurosceptics in the Tory party to heel a bit. The plan was: hold a referendum, remain wins, the ERG can be told to shut up and stop making so much bloody fuss and life carries on.

You may as well as the public about astrophysics! They’d already shown they couldn’t even be trusted to name a boat properly.

As roverpig was getting at in his comment, I see the only eventual outcome of the EU being a federal state, That would mean a universal currency (euro), central bank and an armed force.

As I said re: “echo chamber”, not every opposite opinion is a troll.

Otherwise we would be still half in half out.

Yes, we were exactly that. Half in, half out. And would have continued to be… the flexibility of a “satellite” state, but with a veto. Win, win. Not involved in closer union, but with all the freedoms and rights we helped form and put in place. A bespoke deal if you like. So… what are we going to be instead? Are we all now accepting that no deal (or close as dammit) is coming? And that looks nothing like what was proposed in 2016? Have you worked out what that is likely to mean for your industry? For your country?

Yes. I agree that calling people ‘idiots’ doesn’t get anywhere. How about ‘hysterical’ instead?

Fair point 🙂 Maybe hysteria isn’t the right term. There does seem to be a tendency on both sides to try to polarise debate, which I don’t think is healthy. I picked he NHS as an example from the remain side. Trying to claim that Brexit is an existential threat to our NHS when we’ve watched the creeping privatisation for years (during EU membership) doesn’t make sense to me. But there are plenty of examples from both sides.

We have a veto !

More to the point so do the populist leaders of Hungary, Poland, Italy etc etc
Exactly what closer union is on the horizon in the EU ?

This is kind of my point. The remain side are quick to point out that leavers didn’t fully think through the implications and I dare say that is true. But I don’t think remainers have fully thought it through either. We haven’t had an open debate about the ultimate goals of the European project. I’ve not heard anybody argue that the current situation is ideal (or even sustainable). Most people want it to evolve in one direction or another, but few people can tell you where it should end up. @kimbers you are honest. A currency union with a more powerful ECB would be a logical step. But you must be able to understand why lots of people would be nervous about being in a currency union with all the members of the EU.

As a member we had MEPs voting & sitting on committees(just coz Farage rtc never bothered to turn up & represent ULd interests is not EUs fault.
We had commissioners, a seat (& veto) on European Council, we had judges on ECJ etc etc

While having 3 parallel levels of government doing the same things.

Another reason I voted for brexit was that our government was seen as taking EU directive on domestic issues and whether true or not, 4 levels of government (council<local,westminster<EU) seems like a very wasteful higherarchy.

But you must be able to understand why lots of people would be nervous about being in a currency union with all the members of the EU.

The Euro will never have all the members of the EU in it… and there wasn’t even the sniff of a chance in 2016 that the UK would be joining it while any of us were still alive. A huge red herring.

whether true or not

Indeed.