Brexit 2020+

if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage

if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage

Thats why they’ll be bringing Renaults here, they’ll then only build RH drive Nissans and Renaults for the UK market and any other market where there is an existing trade deal

If this proves to be true, which we should know by the end of the month, I think it’s very good indicator that a no-deal is pretty much nailed on.

Its been glaringly obvious for quite some time that No Deal is the only outcome they’ve ever wanted. They need the ensuring financial chaos to restructure our society into the Ayn Rand style, deregulated, tax haven Fantasy Island.

Incredibly, they’re so unhinged that instead of viewing what’s happening at the moment as a reason to maybe pause and take stock of the new economic reality, they’re determined to do the opposite. They see this whole crisis as an opportunity, no matter what the final death toll is

mdavids – the UK market is not big enough to sustain them and we will have NO trade deals if its no deal. The trade deals we have now are as part of the EU. Leave the EU with no deal none of them apply

Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won’t have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules

Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.

We really are truly ****ed!

They are straining every sinew to ramp up capacity. Herculean effort. Following the science.

The article quoted doesn’t relate to the Customs staff but Agents who prepare the customs entry and then submit it to Customs, so in reality it’s a double shambles- no private industry to make declarations no HMRC to deal with entries. Blue passports though.

Which right hand drive markets were you thinking of @mdavids ? I can see models for the entire group being produced here (for a short time at least) for UK market… but I can’t see exports being a major part of that plan.

You’re rich enough to sort your non-UK passport, but haven’t yet? What are you waiting for…? Pay to keep your rights… it’s only the plebs that we’re stripping of theirs…

Tory donors and Brexit backers now heading to Cyprus & Monaco to buy their EU passports, while others pick Singapore. They said Brexit would be great for Britain, but always had escape plans.

One rule for them, another for the rest of us #ExposingTheLieshttps://t.co/jKs91kRnuB

— Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) January 17, 2020

the UK market is not big enough to sustain

Based on recent available figures you’re wrong. Right hand drive sales alone for Nissan and Renault would be enough to keep the plant viable, its probably about 200’000. Plus any car built in the UK would be instantly 10% cheaper than anything imported giving them a large price advantage over their competitors.
Rest of World non-EU volumes are only a small percentage of their build and are a nice-to-have rather than essential so if trade deals with those countries couldn’t be carried over straight away this wouldn’t make the plant non-viable.
In the event of a no-deal, the current situation for Nissan is that their entire Europe operation becomes non-viable, not just UK. So they either shut up shop completely in Europe or adapt and at least keep some sales.
Renault really don’t want the UK to build their models, unless they really had to. Being able to build and sell them 10% cheaper than importing them is a rather large incentive. If the stories turn out to be true, for me that indicates the industry is betting on a no deal and preparing accordingly.
I guess we’ll find out at the end of the month.

@binners

Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won’t have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules

Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.

We really are truly ****ed!

The main thing I took away from his ‘interview’ was that he sounded like he was pissed.

I always just assumed, from the way he sounded, that David Davis was permanently pissed.

Then I thought that maybe he wasn’t and he just sounds like it because he’s a simpleton.

Now I just think it’s both

Blue passports though.

My passport expired so needed to renew, the new British passport arrived and looks black unless it catches some light just right

Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported

European Nissan plants will be almost unaffected

There will be no export market for Nissan uk

Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported

Did you not listen to David Davis this morning TJ? There aren’t going to be any tariffs. The EU are going to cave in at the last minute, in the face of plucky English negotiating skill and give us the best tariff-free trade deal ever, because… erm… BMW’s and Prosseco, or something

While we clap for carers, and Prince Charles backs the “PICK FOR BRITAIN’ campaign, we are supposed to be thanking the government for punishing those who come here to work in the care system and work on our farms. Depressing stuff.

Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported

European Nissan plants will be almost unaffected

There will be no export market for Nissan uk

Reverting to WTO rules will add 10% to the sale cost of all cars coming in and going out of the country. A Renault or Nissan thats built and then sold here will not face that tariff therefore 10% cheaper than an imported one, and 10% cheaper than their competitors.

Imported automotive parts are different and can be left tariff free if the government desires, see below link:
Link

There are also a lot of UK parts suppliers and a big drive to bring in more, also many parts coming from China, Japan etc.

Nissan Barcelona is barely viable as it is and the reports are suggesting this will be closed with their models going into Renault plants, allowing Renault models to then shift to UK.

You’re right, there won’t be an EU export market, thats the point I’m making, but it won’t be needed as the majority of vehicles will be sold in the UK with a small percentage going to non-EU markets

.

And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK

Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit

And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK

EH?? If a supplier wants to sell parts to the UK why wouldn’t they? It’s extra business, and it’s up to the UK whether to add import tariffs to those parts, and according to that link there won’t be tariffs on these goods

Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit

In it’s current form yes. The addition of Renault volume makes it viable.

If it’s a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?
Are Renault not still partly state Owned?
Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place

I think you are hopelessly optimistic

If it’s a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?

With or without Brexit, Barcelona has problems.

Are Renault not still partly state Owned?

Yes. And heavily unionised and very protective. Which is why if the reports are true and they allow models to come to the UK it suggests a no-deal is inevitable – they can sell Renaults in the UK cheaper than their competitors.

Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place

Export tariffs on what? The point I’m making is the vast majority vehicles would be for the UK market, they wouldn’t be exported to the EU. Renault plants in the EU would build the same models but just for the EU.

I think you are hopelessly optimistic

I’m passing on what various papers have reported, and suggesting if this is true it’s a good indication that Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors.
If manufacturers pass on the 10% to the customer, as most will, buying a UK built car will save you a lot of money.

Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors

Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening, whatever they “know”… waiting for the outcome of negotiations if an extension is ruled out is not any option… the timeline just doesn’t work if you have plants and production to plan for.

Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening

I agree, but knowing about it and actually being able to do something that mitigates the damage are 2 different things.

As Nissan have publicly stated, no-deal will destroy their Europe operation completely. However building cars in the UK for the UK might be viable providing the volume is there.

The majority of EU manufacturers will just stick 10% on to the cost of car for UK customers as there just isn’t the profit margin not to.

Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu

Most of the value of the cars is it not?

might be viable providing the volume is there

Let’s hope nothing happens that craters our economy even harder than Brexit and pulls the rug out from under the car lease market. Fingers crossed.

Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu

I’ll be honest I don’t know if they could, my understanding is tariffs are generally levied at the point of import by the country doing the importing.

I’d suggest it would be completely ridiculous for them to do so, they’d be deliberately making their own companies un-competitive, there are many other automotive suppliers all over the world who would happily take that business off them.

Most of the value of the cars is it not?

Surprisingly not

It doesn’t matter if the car built here is cheaper, if your unemployed and bankrupt, you still won’t be able to afford one 😁

I thought to mark our triumphant escape from our continental oppressor we were going to relaunch the glory days of the British car industry?

Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant

The pcps will just have longer terms, people like their German Kubelwagens.

Don’t forget they were promised all sorts of sweeteners in the May days, wring some more money out of a desperate government and walk away later if it’s not enough.

The Covid money tree can carry on shaking if required.

Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant

I’ll try and explain it as simply as I can.

Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there’s no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100’000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200’000’000

They aren’t losing volume because they are still building for non-UK markets and Nissan would shift volume from their closed Barcelona plant to Renault, plus if they just kept importing to the UK they’d likey see a massive drop in RH drive sales as customers would be unwilling to pay the extra 10%, plus if they are cheaper than their competitors they would likely see an increase in sales.

It would make sense for both companies, especially when neither company is doing particularly well at the moment

I just googled “export tariffs” and the first response tells me that they are levied to encourage domestic consumption of domestically produced goods (and therefore discourage the export). It also tells me they are less rare than import tariffs…

mdavids its makes no sense for renault EU to do that tho. Thats the problem. They would rather have the barcelona plant open as closing that will cost a lot. Same for the unions. There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK

There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK

There literally is, cold hard cash.

Also the UK plant is an order of magnitude bigger than Barcelona, capable of pumping out half a million vehicles a year, and are already building the Nissan equivalent of the Renault models so very little investment would be needed.

Whatever happens with Barcelona is a decision for Nissan Japan, not Renault.

Bored now, I’m not making this up, the stories are out there, just google it. They might not to be true, I’m just giving you an insight and suggesting a few reasons why they could be true, and if they are true why this is a likely indicator of a no-deal.

I think point most miss when talking about cars is that the majority of buyers will just suck up the 10%. Doubt you’ll even see it as the various promotions will become less generous to cover the cost.

If I wanted a 20k Ford Focus and it suddlenly jumped up 2k that wouldn’t make me buy a 20k Renault that I didn’t want in the first place, even less so if talking about 12/15k Fiesta/Micra. If every 60k BMW/Merc/Audi bumped up 6k what are the buyers going to turn to? My bet is they’ll just not spec the 3k ICE or the like.

The car manufacturers are past masters at hiding price rises or convincing people they’re getting a great deal so I really can’t see much changing. The fact the economy is going to be borked will be the problem.

@mdavids you’re going to have to explain your numbers here.

I’ll try and explain it as simply as I can.

Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there’s no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100’000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200’000’000

Are you saying the car will be 10% more expensive no matter where it is made, but that the manufacturer can hoover up an extra 10% profit per car?
If you are saying they’ll sell the UK made car at the original price then there’s no extra money in it for them and export tariffs may well make it less profitable, not more.

The Nissan renault group make about 3.5 times as many cars in Sunderland as they sell in the UK. Most of them go to Europe.

Modern car factory’s can’t just swap between models easily, it costs hundreds of millions to tool them up for each specific model. They can’t just make the whole Nissan and Renault range at Sunderland for right hand drive markets, it’s a cloud cuckoo land fantasy.

No deal means WTO rules on cars, meaning cars imported into the UK will have a 10% tariff added, and cars exported from the UK to the EU will have 10% added. Either the manufacturer absorbs this and accepts £2k (approx figure) less profit per car. Or increases the cost to the customer by £2k.
Rather than Renault importing into the UK they’d build cars here for the UK and continue to build in their own plants for the EU domestic market. Not all models, just Kadjar and Captur, which share a chassis with the current Nissan Qashqai and Juke and already share parts, so there’s very little extra tooling required.
Although the Nissan UK volume would reduce from its current levels, it remains viable by having Renault’s UK volume added.

Link to sky news

I thought Juke sales were catastrophic and the Captur has embarrassing environmental credentials. They are old platforms which will need replacing with the investments that implies. The commitment to Sunderland seems low according to those stated objectives – no mention fo the Leaf which is the most promising Sunderland product.

Within the Renault-Nissan group Sunderland isn’t a source of cheap cars compared with Roumania which saves 200e per Clio compared with France or Spain IIRC. 10% WTO is on complete cars, components are at 4.5% which means parts from Turkey and other low cost factories can still be attractive.