Tories not doing so bad in Scotland after all

Bxp ltd collapse saving them

Which sucks for rest of UK

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (+6)
LAB: 15% (+3)
LDM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-3)
BXP: 0% (-6)

Via @YouGov, 29 Nov-3 Dec.
Changes w/ 23-25 Oct.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) December 6, 2019

mrwhyte is right

But, of course, fewer teachers means teachers are more stretched, so part of any plan to retain staff is to train more staff (and make it enticing for staff to return to the profession, and to come from other countries). Even more true of nursing (both NHS and in care homes).

It’s a chicken/egg situation.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 32% (+4)
LDEM: 13% (-3)
GRN: 3% (-)
BREX: 2% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 02 – 04 Dec
Chgs. w/ Novhttps://t.co/m1hoBpI81D

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 6, 2019

Ipsos Mori is one of the most extreme with 16pt Tory lead last poll.

They also polled people’s thoughts on who was having the best campaign – Tories by far – apparently.

The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign and how easy a ride its giving Johnson is utterly depressing to witness

And they should do what?

I tell you this – I’ve been involved in the local campaign recently (offering my media services where time allows) filming the local Hustings (which just happened to be hosted by an independent school) and a vote sample was taken – this in a 70% Brexit constituency – widley tipped to go Tory – and Labour were way out in front on the vote. Not what I expected. And this is purely down to the campaigning effort thus far by the Labour PPC / Labour at large.

The trouble is people queue up to reward Boris Johnson’s bad behaviour. That’s the rub. People actively go for his lies. Corbyn could walk on water – but you ain’t doing battle with that irrational logic.

The polls seem to show that most people are watching the same one as me 🙁

They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.

Of course, voters are swayed by far more than the campaign… everything said or done (or not said and done) before the campaign has set many people down a voting path that last minute campaigns will not shift. Some have bought into the “success” of the swing managed in the 2017 campaign, and think the same level of change is possible again, as if voters will ignore the last two years.

They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.

Alright so the fact the gaps have close over the last few weeks would indicate a positive direction?

+1 My constituency’s the same. Conventioal wisdom says it should go one way, all the evidence I’m seeing (and there’s a fair bit) is that it’s going a completely different way.

What are the particulars – out of curiosity?

Looking at Scotland data above- is Jo Swinson’s seat safe?

Both main parties are a complete shambles.

Brexit can be stopped, or take years. There is no path to it being “done” quickly. It’s yet another appealing but empty nebulous three word slogan.

What are the particulars – out of curiosity?

On the surface a very safe blue seat. Lib dems came third last time. Lab 2nd. Leave Majority in the Referendum.

In contrast to what you’d deduce from the above, the facts on the ground seem to me to be:

Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
I can’t find a blue voter – they’ve all openly gone Lib Dem.
Outside my house I met a Blue Party member who stood as a Blue councillor in the local elections in the summer campaigning for the yellows!
I can’t find a red voter – I’ve no idea where their votes are going but it isn’t to the red candidate – my gut feel is they’re either not voting or going blue and don’t want to say so.

I’m convinced the numbers are going to be a real shock, maybe even the result.

I’m sure there are other places, like yours where the surprise will be a red win. My point is this election can’t be predicted, you can’t tell from national polling where votes in the constituencys are going. I wouldn’t be ruling out any result at all.

Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.

How do you come to these conclusions if you can’t find any red or blue voters?

Not as simple as a simple lie.

The only quick way to get brexit out of the headlines is to remain. If we leave in any terms there’ll be a generation of fighting against our former allies.

THe big issue is, as said above, people no longer care if things are out-right lies if it meet their world view. It’s therefore hard to run a reasonable campaign and get your point across; which is why the tories seem to be doing well by repeating their three-word bullshit mantra.

Also, I’m not sure how many people are even listenting to the campaigns compared to having decided who they would vote for long before the election was called.

The big concern for me is the number of people (over a dozen) I’ve spoken to in my constituency (a labour marginal where the differnece when the tories took it in 2015 was under 30 votes) who are intelligent, pro-EU, but are sayign they won’t vote for Corbyn again so will vote liberal (who had a few percent last time). You can blame the media for mis-representing Corbyn as much as you like but it doesnt change the fact he, or people’s impression of him, are putting people off voting labour. I find it mindblowing that people won’t hold there nose and vote tactically in such a key marginal but it seems many won’t.

(over a dozen)

Same here. Locally Corbyn is still the block to previous Labour voters voting for the only local candidate that can unseat our no-Deal Brexit advocating Tory MP. I’ve persuaded one or two to hold their noses and back the Labour candidate, but many still will not. One week to go. Keep pressing people to face up to the reality… Johnson must have his majority denied him, vote for whoever can keep your seat out of his hands… try and persuade others to do the same.

Voters have been told that the withdrawal agreement is simply a means for getting Brexit done. A way to make the whole thing stop. They deserve to know, not just that the process would drag on for many years to come, but also that it would harm their country in ways that go far beyond a simple cut in GDP.

Johnson’s Brexit Deal is Getting No Scrutiny – But it is the Most Damaging Proposal Ever Put to Voters

For the first time in my life, I really don’t know who to vote for.

After 3 years of damaging bickering, I do believe that we need a majority government. Coalitions just tread water and focus on in-fighting rather than moving forward.

Realistically the vote therefore is for Conservative or Labour. If you don’t want Labour, you have to vote Conservative, otherwise there would be a hung parliament. If you don’t want Conservative, you have to vote Labour as the chance of any of the next tier parties forming a majority government is slim to bugger all.

I have traditionally voted Conservative, but I am a strong Remainer, and despite associating more with the rest of their policies than Labour, their stance on Brexit is a deal breaker for me.

If Labour would get off the fence on Brexit they could get my vote, despite Corbin, who I think is a danger to the country. But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.

Despite their views on Brexit, the Lib Dems are not a realistic choice to form a majority government.

So I genuinely have a dilemma. I want to vote as I believe it is a fundamental obligation and a hard fought right that not everybody in the world has. But literally none of the choices represent me, and despite their manifestos and campaigning BS, there won’t be a massive difference between any of them.

Fundamentally politics is broken. Professionally, as a business we all pull together across functions, nations and roles collaboratively, yet our politics are designed to spin and divide rather than all pulling together for the common good (climate, health, education etc – none of which should be politicised).

Grrrrrrrrr.