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  • 2019 General Election
  • outofbreath
    Free Member

    as they were told by just about everyone who actually knew anything about it.

    All the parties agreed significant cuts were required to get debt under control. There is no example of any other country in the world that managed to spend it’s way into a boom over the last 10 years. (And Greece tried spending their way out and went utterly tits up.)

    If growing an economy was as simple as borrowing and spending there would be no poor countries and every country in the world would be spending like crazy.

    trickydisco
    Free Member

    Talking of rail fares and labour affordability

    We have the highest fares and most profitable rail companies in the world

    Monthly train tickets cost:

    France: £66
    Germany: £118
    Belgium: £144
    Spain: £108
    Italy: £65
    Britain: £381

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    Interesting that there’s been little focus on how Labour’s WASPI promise may influence voting intentions of women affected.
    There are about 4 million; surely they’re not all existing labour voters?

    A couple of LBC presenters talked about it in one of their podcasts. It wasn’t a reliable sample but they were saying in a one hour show dedicated to the issue only one voter who believed it was going to actually be delivered got through to their researcher.

    That matches my perception. All the parties have gone so blatantly pork-barrel this time I don’t think anyone gives any credibility to any of the bribes. So incredibly, it seems offering a 31k bribe to 4 million people might have won very few votes.

    Moreover, the most Labour could find for the NHS is 9bn. Yet they had 58bn un-allocated all along! Mental.

    zippykona
    Full Member

    On my FB weather page it says snow coming on the 12th especially oop north.

    I guess many elder voters won’t be able to venture out. My mum certainly couldn’t even if she wanted to.
    Let’s all do a  snow dance.

    jjprestidge
    Free Member

    It’s not that difficult to understand working class Tory voters:

    Many will have memories of the terrible Labour government of 74-79. Corbyn’s Labour, with its nationalisation agenda and general left wing stance will remind many of these voters of this era.

    Others will see a lack of fiscal responsibility. The Tories can be just as reckless, but as they are generally perceived as being more careful with spending (which does have some historical precedents) they are more likely to get away with it in voters’ eyes.

    Aspirational working class types will also not vote Labour, almost as a matter of principle. Ditto many of those who have risen to the ranks of the lower middle class.

    JP

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    There’s a document costing everything, why don’t you give that a read.

    Fantastic, please post a quote from the section of the document that explains the 58bn over 5 years for WASPI women.

    Nope

    😀

    I knew it wasn’t in the document

    😀

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    My annual metro card (West Yorkshire) costs me about 120 quid a month through salary sacrifice.
    It’s cheaper than driving of you factor in parking charges in Leeds. But if you don’t commute to a city it’s debatable whether it’s worth it. And the service is a nightmare at times.

    binners
    Full Member

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    It’s not that difficult to understand working class Tory voters:

    Many will have memories of the terrible Labour government of 74-79. Corbyn’s Labour, with its nationalisation agenda and general left wing stance will remind many of these voters of this era.

    Others will see a lack of fiscal responsibility. The Tories can be just as reckless, but as they are generally perceived as being more careful with spending (which does have some historical precedents) they are more likely to get away with it in voters’ eyes.

    Aspirational working class types will also not vote Labour, almost as a matter of principle. Ditto many of those who have risen to the ranks of the lower middle class.

    All of that, plus I’m not especially poor and I can think of far better things to spend many thousands of pounds of my money than nationalising a load of stuff. If money was really tight how does that decision go. Shoes for the kids, or buy out the shareholders of some seriously massive firms… Which is most useful… Let me think…

    Also don’t forget there are a vast number of working class people with small Ltd Company businesses. The medium and big firms will just move HQ abroad and avoid the corporation tax rise, small shop owners and plumbers can’t.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    LOL @binners. Priceless.

    taxi25
    Free Member

    We have the highest fares and most profitable rail companies in the world

    When taken as a whole they don’t seem very profitable ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46398947

    iffoverload
    Free Member

    Obviously you buy shoes… for the kids of shareholders of some seriously massive firms… 😉

    and tax evading big companies can take their business with them when they go, I am shure someone else will take up the business they leave behind.

    frankconway
    Free Member

    oob – yes, it’s all pork barrel politics but voters can be easily persuaded by the illusion of money; particularly when it’s allied to a feeling of a wrong being righted.
    Regarding small number of callers to LBC, perhaps most were out working to earn money to supplement/replace their deferred pensions…..

    DrJ
    Full Member

    Interesting item on C4News about a focus group with ex-Labour voters. They were asked about Johnson. “A character” they said. “Straight talking” one said. Hard to imagine anybody less worthy of being called “straight talking”.

    But I am lucky. I will survive a Tory government, whereas probably many of the focus group will be foc’ed. So let ’em enjoy it.

    rothdogg
    Free Member

    Channel 4 10pm tonight. Dispatches Growing Up Poor: Britain’s Breadline Kids

    This is the real picture of what austerity by the tories for a decade has created. This is a very common picture in my local area and our Tory MP said it was lies created by labour supporters!

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion but if you can watch that and still put a x in the Tory box then you are a very selfish person.

    robdixon
    Free Member

    France: £66
    Germany: £118
    Belgium: £144
    Spain: £108
    Italy: £65
    Britain: £381

    Is this actually comparable though? How much is the cost per mile and to what extent are fares in Britain reflective of how long people commute?

    To get to £381 a month you’re probably looking at a 50-60 mile rail journey – so around 0.16p a mile.

    Edit: the headline figures probably don’t tell the whole story:

    https://www.seat61.com/uk-europe-train-fares-comparison.html

    molgrips
    Free Member

    There is no example of any other country in the world that managed to spend it’s way into a boom over the last 10 years.

    Portugal was cited:

    Portugal’s Economic Recovery: How Much Came from Ditching Austerity?

    Quite a few other hits about spending out of recessions. It’s a thing.

    I can think of far better things to spend many thousands of pounds of my money than nationalising a load of stuff. If money was really tight how does that decision go. Shoes for the kids, or buy out the shareholders of some seriously massive firms…

    They won’t be taxing poor people who can barely afford kids shoes. Not doing that is literally the entire raison d’etre of the Labour party. You really are talking absolute rubbish, it’s quite strange how selective your perception is. You utterly mis-udnerstood my point re the WASPI compensation. I knew it wasn’t costed (as I said) so my original comment was NOT an attempt to say it was costed – just an invitation for the poster to read about stuff for himself. Point missed completely. And then you mock me for your own misunderstanding of my point. Please try to understand not just sling mud.

    Also don’t forget there are a vast number of working class people with small Ltd Company businesses. The medium and big firms will just move HQ abroad and avoid the corporation tax rise, small shop owners and plumbers can’t.

    Small businesses won’t pay more corporation tax, because it’s paid on PROFIT after costs such as salaries. So the only way they will pay more tax is if they are using bonuses and dividends to pay less tax than they should in the first place.

    iffoverload
    Free Member

    no idea if these are accurate, maybe someone with better gewgleidge skills can confirm/deny?

    The Four Big Myths of UK Rail Privatisation


    “The cost of running the railway has more than doubled in real terms since privatisation from £2.4bn per year (1990–91 to 1994–95) to approximately £5.4bn per year (2005–06 to 2009–10).
    Official figures show that all but one of the private train operators in the UK receive more in subsidies than they return in the form of franchise payments to the government. In 2013–14, the government contributed £3.8bn to the UK rail industry.
    The top five recipients of public subsidy alone received almost £3bn in taxpayer support between 2007 and 2011. This allowed them to make operating profits of £504m – over 90 per cent (£466m) of which was paid to shareholders.”

    molgrips
    Free Member

    When you buy a rail ticket from a private rail company, to get to work, some of that money goes into the pockets of rich businessmen. Is that the way it should be? Should people be profiting from an essential service? I say no.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    and tax evading big companies

    Evading?

    take their business with them when they go, I am shure someone else will take up the business they leave behind.

    The rules don’t require them to take their business – just move the nominal HQ. That usually requires redundant-izing a 2-4 uk staff and employing a 2-4 in the new country’s address and holding board meetings in that country – a PITA even in the Easy Jet age but in a fiercely competitive world what’s the alternative?

    All academic because we’re talking about working class voters with small LTD firms – tradesmen/small shop owners. A plumber with a van can’t move HQ they’ll be paying the lot – hence they’re examples of working class people who might not be enthusiastic about voting Labour.

    iffoverload
    Free Member

    Precisely, is Avoidance the correct term?

    the rules need to change to not allow tax to be paid in low tax havens for big companies trading in other countries.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    I see a manifesto as a direction rather than an absolute.

    Ah so the Tories could ignore that referendum then?

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    Portugal was cited:

    Did you read your link? [1]

    Portugal simply benefited passively, along with others, from a strong recovery in Europe overall.

    It raised the possibility ending Austerity did it, it certainly doesn’t conclude it. Hell of a coincidence that it turned around when Europe turned around!

    They won’t be taxing poor people who can barely afford kids shoes.

    They will. Corporation tax is just like VAT. The customer pays. It’s not remotely progressive. The greengrocer has to pass it on to his customers, he doesn’t create special money from an alternative source to pay his taxes, he makes all his money from his customers. There is no way to spend the sums Labour (and the Torys) are talking about without the vast majority of us paying. Very few people, if anyone believes the “other people will pay” mantra.

    [1] In fact that’s the second time you’ve wasted my time tonight. First you claimed the Grey Book included costings for all Labours promises, now you’ve shared a link without bothering to read it yourself. I’ll hit send on this because I’ve already written it but I won’t be replying to you again for a while.

    richardkennerley
    Full Member

    Interesting item on C4News about a focus group with ex-Labour voters. They were asked about Johnson. “A character” they said. “Straight talking” one said. Hard to imagine anybody less worthy of being called “straight talking”.

    I saw one vox pop recently and the respondent described Boris as “a man of his word.”

    CaptainFlashheart
    Free Member

    greentricky
    Free Member

    Can;t blame people for being terrified of Corbyn
    https://twitter.com/Millar_Colin/status/1201581431371247616

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    the rules need to change to not allow tax to be paid in low tax havens for big companies trading in other countries.

    That’s easy, VAT does exactly that. It’s not politically very popular though.

    Unless you’re talking about changing the rules to make companies HQ and pay *corporation* tax in a specific countries. That isn’t so easy. If it was somewhere would have cracked it. (Ok, North Korea & East Germany solved it…)

    dannyh
    Free Member

    Tories. Financial credence.

    Brexit will cost the country, net, about £60bn a year in perpetuity. That is a ‘conservative’ (ha!) estimate. Brexit is a Tory owned problem.

    The Tories are not what they were. They are not the party of business or economic prosperity or however else they used to be perceived. They have been taken over by disaster capitalist and spivs who want a quick and gargantuan pay day and **** the rest of us.

    Financial credence my arse.

    cromolyolly
    Free Member

    All the parties agreed significant cuts were required to get debt under control. There is no example of any other country in the world that managed to spend it’s way into a boom over the last 10 years. (

    I actually don’t think labour did. Plus there is a massive difference between cuts and austerity.

    Must be a coincidence that the places that borrowed and spent and avoided austerity budgets recovered more fully and more quickly than those that didn’t. And that the ones that didn’t were getting ample evidence of it but chose to pursue ideology instead of good advice.

    Austerity continues to be a drag in the UK economy today while other places are doing really quite well.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    IFS said today that No Deal Brexit & Tory manifesto pledges will cost more than Labours spending plans + their norway Brexit

    (And unless Johnson does some major u-Turns on his current red lines or EU concede majorly then no deal it is)

    kiksy
    Free Member

    The Tories are not what they were.

    Not at all, this new breed bears little resemblance to the party of old.

    https://www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

    robdixon
    Free Member

    “Precisely, is Avoidance the correct term?

    the rules need to change to not allow tax to be paid in low tax havens for big companies trading in other countries“

    Most of the largest U.K. headquartered PLCs derive the majority of their revenue (and hence profit) overseas. They can therefore legitimately choose to locate their HQ wherever it makes sense to do so – many choose London for access to City firms in particular, law.

    Should they choose to domicile in Ireland they would not be “evading” anything but in almost every case shareholders would benefit from the reduction in corporation tax from the 26% Labour are proposing and the 12% that Ireland currently levies.

    When most revenue / profit is derived overseas you can’t simply cry “tax haven” because other countries in Europe are more competitive on tax.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    The Conservatives stole the miners’ pension fund.

    Stole? According to the FT it was guaranteed in exchange for 50pc of any surplus (if there was one).

    https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2019/06/11/govt-mulls-pension-guarantees-for-mineworkers/?page=1

    molgrips
    Free Member

    First you claimed the Grey Book included costings for all Labours promises

    I most emphatically did not, as I’ve tried to point out I think twice now.

    It raised the possibility ending Austerity did it, it certainly doesn’t conclude it.

    I did read the link.. you don’t seem to be understanding what’s going on here. I’m trying not to post black and white partisan links in an effort to win. I’m trying to have a discussion about the issues. Of course I’m not an economist, and I only have minimal time for research, so I’m throwing information into the mix and trying to be balanced about it. Maybe I’m naive in hoping for people to follow suit 🙂

    The greengrocer has to pass it on to his customers, he doesn’t create special money from an alternative source to pay his taxes

    Why does a greengrocer pay any corporation tax at all? You do know how corp tax works don’t you?

    iffoverload
    Free Member

    Most of the largest U.K. headquartered PLCs derive the majority of their revenue (and hence profit) overseas.

    that is fine and they can pay tax on the % of their overseas profits wherever they make them.

    but it seems unfair that it is possible to benefit from the infrastructure and market of a given country and then export those profits outside of its borders to pay a lower rate of tax to a goverment that has little if anything to do with the creation of that profit.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    but it seems unfair that it is possible to benefit from the infrastructure and market of a given country and then export those profits outside of its borders to pay a lower rate of tax to a goverment that has little if anything to do with the creation of that profit.

    Well, if you can make up rules that stop that happening without going all “North Korea” you can sell it to governments throughout the world and fix the problem for good.

    In the meantime there’s VAT.

    jjprestidge
    Free Member

    Small businesses won’t pay more corporation tax, because it’s paid on PROFIT after costs such as salaries. So the only way they will pay more tax is if they are using bonuses and dividends to pay less tax than they should in the first place.

    You really don’t understand this do you? We pay significant sums in corporation tax every year, and we’re a very typical small business with 4 employees. The notion that small businesses wouldn’t be affected by an increase is nonsense. The only businesses not affected are large organisations that can afford to use arcane offshore structures to stop paying any corporation tax at all.

    If corporation tax were reduced to a sensible level we’d probably re-invest our additional revenue, primarily in creating jobs, thereby generating income tax revenues, or increase dividends, which would also generate tax income. Larger companies would also be less likely to try to avoid paying the tax if it were set at a lower level. But let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good ‘all companies are evil and should be taxed to death’ doctrine, shall we?

    JP

    molgrips
    Free Member

    We pay significant sums in corporation tax every year, and we’re a very typical small business with 4 employees.

    Ok, fair point. I’m thinking of the plumbers etc individual traders.

    Curious as to why you bank profits each year though? Is it simply a case of not being able to spend it by year end?

    If corporation tax were reduced to a sensible level we’d probably re-invest our additional revenue, primarily in creating jobs, thereby generating income tax revenues, or increase dividends, which would also generate tax income.

    So I definitely don’t understand how lower corporation tax rates would lead you to re-invest revenue. If you re-invest it then you don’t pay corp tax on it do you? This is surely the entire point of corp tax – to encourage you to re-invest? What do you do with it if you aren’t re-investing it? Put it in the bank? Isn’t that what attracts tax?

    Dividends are taxed, but surely less than corporation tax which is why contractors pay themselves that way… unless it’s changed since I last did it.

    But let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good ‘all companies are evil and should be taxed to death’ doctrine, shall we?

    Not even close to my position. I’m trying to have a discussion, not win an argument.

    iffoverload
    Free Member

    Well, if you can make up rules that stop that happening without going all “North Korea” you can sell it to governments throughout the world and fix the problem for good.

    not that hard shirley?

    Northwind
    Full Member

    jjprestidge

    Member

    The only businesses not affected are large organisations that can afford to use arcane offshore structures to stop paying any corporation tax at all.

    And most small businesses, because most small businesses don’t pay corporation tax. I think we did this a couple of weeks ago? Sole traders and partnerships don’t pay corporation tax, as they’re not corporations. They amount for 2/3ds of all companies in the UK and of course that’s heavily biased towards small companies.

    Some people either don’t understand how corporation tax works, or want to misrepresent who has to pay it. Or like Boris Johnson, can only make their argument by lying about it.

    Of course, the Labour policy is simply reversing the cuts of recent years to where we were in 2011, 26%. It wasn’t high then, and it wouldn’t be high today- in fact it’s bang on the EU average, and under the world average. UK businesses will still benefit from a lower rate of corporation tax than Germany, France, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, and Greece. And Japan, and Mexico, and pretty much the same as the USA.

    For some reason the Tories say that to compete, we have to compete on corporation tax with Lithuania, rather than our european industrialised peers. Never quite understood why so many conservatives think the UK is somehow inferior to Germany and France and can only compete by undercutting them massively. (because even with Labour’s hikes, we will still undercut them, just not by as much.)

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