Ukraine

A useful update from Phillips P O’Brien. I’ll make a small addition that President Putin has also exchanged thoughts with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, where the Azeri airliner crashed.

The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments , NKorean troop update and some Syria stuff that I’ll also put in that thread https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-113-this-war-is-truly

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US

Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?

Yes. The bottom line is that Ukraine (and the US) still have options, including manufacture, but they will all cost more and take time

Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?

This has been rumbling for years, in 2017 the US ordered its military to stop using DJI drones, software, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40860806

18 months ago China banned the export of heavier drones to both Ukraine and Russia.

A year later,

“Starting Sept. 1, China will prohibit the export of numerous radio and drone components through standard parcels delivered by air and sea.

The ban includes components used to build drones, such as motors and cameras for quadcopters, as well as radio systems, portable walkie-talkies and hunting knives.” https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38142

I’m not sure of the significance of “standard parcels”. Other media reports of the same story talk simply about banning all exports of civilian drones that could be put to either terrorist or military use because China was getting unwarranted criticism

More recently, some US companies have had Chinese component orders refused because they’re supplying drones to Taiwan and so it goes on…

sea drone shoots down helicopter

Ukrainian Magura V5 drones reached another sensational milestone. For the first time an USV shot down an aerial vehicle. In this footage Russian choppers tried to intercept the UAV, but with R-73 „Sea Dragons“ missiles one chopper was shot down and another one damaged.

— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) 2024-12-31T07:31:03.715Z

Insightful into Russian people’s thinking from Steve Rosenberg again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/ce327we7w7zo

The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments

A further consequence floated by “experts” is the possibility that this will lead to routine interception of shadow fleet tankers with impact on Russia’s efforts to avoid sanctions on its oil exports. If tanker owners face real risk of losing their ship they may be less likely to risk playing ball with Putin. Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.

Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.

The thing about the Baltic is that at certain points it narrows massively leaving only a very narrow sea lane between the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia.

Prior to Russia’s actions encouraging Finland to join NATO, Russian shipping had more room for manoeuvre under international treaty. NATO members now legally control almost the entire width and can deal with ships more easily.

I’m no maritime expert, but my understanding is that it makes tankers like Eagle S much easier to deal with. That little adventure has so far cost a tanker (currently impounded near to Helsinki with its own exclusion zone), its load of unleaded and a pile of surveillance gear (not to mention the missing anchor)

NATO now controls the entire airspace, apart from a short, restricted corridor to Kaliningrad and back (no onward travel), so the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia on several fronts

…Russian choppers tried to intercept the UAV, but with R-73 „Sea Dragons“ missiles one chopper was shot down and another one damaged.

There was a grainy image of a similarly equipped UAV on a video a few weeks ago, which I was convinced was a wind-up by Ukraine; an air-to-air missile on the sea, power source, lock-on indicator and other challenges. Clearly it wasn’t!

5am today was the last time for Ukraine to allow the transit of Russian gas to Europe. PM Fico of Slovakia and PM Orban of Hungary will be digging deeper to pay their bills.

Moldova and Austria will be paying more too, but Moldova and Transnistria won’t be under Russian energy blackmail influence

Ukraine did offer to continue transit if Russia agreed to payments being held until peace has been officially declared, but Russia didn’t renew the agreement https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-halts-gas-exports-europe-via-ukraine-2025-01-01/

Seems that Transnistria has turned off gas to residential properties.

You choose your side time….

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html

I don’t have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They’ve had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.

I don’t have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They’ve had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.

Arguably a big error by Russia to use energy blackmail so early following the invasion on 24th Feb 2022. They cut Nordstream supplies by 75% in June 2022 and shut it completely for 10 days in July.

What else would you do but top storage up for winter and hunt for new suppliers?

Moldova had the unique problem of being reliant on its Russian-leaning Transnistria breakaway because Russia supplied all of its gas there and not to the Moldovan state. Transnistria also generates electricity for the whole country and being possibly the poorest country in Europe, but not an EU member, Moldova didn’t have too many options.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and Europe has financed Moldova’s energy infrastructure. Moldova (and Ukraine) has been moving its electricity grid to the Continental European system and away from the Russian-Belorussian synchronous system since 2017. In 2022, following invasion, this became urgent and they managed the final changes within three weeks.

Moldova now has electricity supply connections to Romania and Ukraine, with a third 400kV line to Romania in the planning stages.

1st Jan 2025: “According to Zelensky, most European countries “have adapted” to the termination of Russian gas transit. Zelensky added that the allies’ common task now is to support Moldova, dependent on Russian supplies, in its energy transformation.” https://kyivindependent.com/one-of-moscows-biggest-defeats-zelensky-on-stopping-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine/

Slovakia and Hungary are a different case and are anti-Ukraine, e.g. PM Fico of Slovakia threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine ( https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-threatens-to-cut-electricity-supplies-if-ukraine-ends-russian-gas-transit/ ) while PM Orban believes that Ukraine should return Zakarpattia aka Trans-Carpathia to Hungary

Austria is different again and constitutionally neutral following WW2. You can interpret that in many ways, but business is business…

Yeah, I was excluding the poor Moldovans in my brief summary. The Russian agitating bastards have really done a number on them and but for the fact they don’t have a direct border to be invaded over I suspect they would have been back as part of Russia some time ago.

NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!

A little more detail on Transnistria’s problems. “Jan 2 (Reuters) – The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers, an official said on Thursday.”

It seems that Russia has abandoned the idea of supplying gas to its enclave, although it had the option (see Matt’s link^^)

The local parliament last month sent an appeal to the Kremlin and the Russian parliament to reach a new agreement with Ukraine to enable gas supplies to continue. Moscow said at the time it would protect its citizens and soldiers in Transnistria. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html

Moldova has successfully trialled supplies coming from Romania

The head of Moldovan national gas company Moldovagaz, Vadim Ceban, said his company had told the gas distribution company in the separatist enclave, Tiraspoltransgaz, that it was willing to help purchase gas from European countries to ease shortages.
But any gas supplied to the region would have to be paid for at market prices, he told TV8 television. Transdniestria has for several years paid nothing for supplies from Russian gas giant Gazprom under a tacit understanding with Moscow. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/breakaway-moldovan-regions-power-plant-switches-coal-after-gas-cutoff-2025-01-02/