Ukraine

I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don’t feel the same way about Ukraine…

@Kryton57

It wasn’t aimed at you.

The history of Ukraine’s relationship with NATO until 2014 hasn’t changed, but the same few seem to think it worth raising every now and then

I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don’t feel the same way about Ukraine…

And I find it rather odd that the people who trumpet Israel’s right to kill Palestinian children – in Gaza or otherwise – are upset about Russia bombing power stations.

It’s not so much the topic or scope of the discussions on the last couple of pages which bothers me but the tone. Far too much points scoring and insults to be useful or helpful.

.

I said something a couple of pages ago, Poopscoop disagreed, so he said, clearly and politely, why he thought I was incorrect and what he thought was more likely to happen and why he thought that.

Can we all try to be more like Poop please?

I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don’t feel the same way about Ukraine…

You mistake what people want for what they recognise as reality. I would love Putin to get out of Ukraine as much as I would love Israel to get out of Palestine. It’s not going to happen though is it? Just like I want negotiations in Israel/Palestine to bring the senseless slaughter to an end, I want the same in Ukraine.

I’m amazed that the people who support western involvement in Ukraine don’t also show the same dislike of the genocidal actor in Israel/Palestine. Supporting Ukraine with miltary resources and support Israel doesn’t look very consistent to me. The only common factor I can see is that Western arms companies make enormous amounts of money, and I think that might explain quite a lot about why western govts are involved in these two conflicts.

I’m amazed that the people who support western involvement in Ukraine don’t also show the same dislike of the genocidal actor in Israel/Palestine.

You’re assuming they don’t and in many cases, mine included you’d be absolutely wrong.  There is a Gaza thread and there is a Ukraine thread.

There is a Gaza thread and there is a Ukraine thread.

It wasn’t me who was trying to link or equate the two issues in the first place. I’ve got no interest in trying to link them, they’re completely separate things with different countries, people and histories. Doesn’t make any sense to apply what happens on one to the other.

Although the apparent inconsistency in the western approach is interesting and very illustrative. It’s almost like the west doesn’t really care much about what’s happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.

Meanwhile back to Ukraine – I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson – they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.

Although the apparent inconsistency in the western approach is interesting and very illustrative. It’s almost like the west doesn’t really care much about what’s happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.

I think that’s been sadly true for many of the conflicts in the last 50 years.

It’s almost like the west doesn’t really care much about what’s happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.

Welcome to diplomacy 101… first time?

If you think ‘the West’ is cynical you wait until you meet the rest of the world.

In this instance an independent and free Ukraine is actually both in our interests and the right thing to do, a very rare instance of self-interest and the moral imperative pulling in the same direction.

I think that’s been sadly true for many of the conflicts in the last 50 years.

You missed a couple of zeros from that number.

If you think ‘the West’ is cynical you wait until you meet the rest of the world.

I think you’d struggle to find many other countries more cynical and destructive than western imperialist powers who have murdered millions, suppressed entire continents, destroyed numerous indigenous cultures and appropriated natural resources on a scale never seen before. We wrote the book on it, and the likes of Putin and other dictators are just following in our wake. Probably needs another thread for that though.

Strokes goatee, adjusts thick-rimmed glasses, have you considered, America bad?

Ok, at the risk of stirring up the whole Gaza debate… Sorry.

I don’t think they are entirely separate issues. Iran is a major ally of Russia. Iran are also the major supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah. It’s not entirely inconceivable that Russia has asked Iran to stir up some unrest in their neck of the woods to at least distract, and hopefully divide, the west whilst they get on with their own mission in Ukraine. Whether they could have foreseen what’s actually happening now I don’t know, it’s possible it got out of hand/went better than expected, depending on which side you’re on.

We wrote the book on it,

Maybe updated it a bit with modern technology but the Mongols definitely added a couple of chapters and the Neo-Assyrians started it off.

Whilst they are plenty of negative things to say about our lot over the years at least there isnt a nice sculpture of Victoria having lunch at Buckingham palace with a decapitated head or two of her vanquished foes hanging behind her.

/Ghengis Khan has entered the chat

Whether they could have foreseen what’s actually happening now I don’t know

Everything I have read suggests the Iranians didnt know about Hamas attack up front and would have been unlikely to have been in favour of it. The lower level conflict suited them better.

Hezbollah for example basically didnt get involved beyond the bare minimum until the Israelis escalated. If it was planned by the Iranians I would have expected them to have launched a major offensive shortly after the Hamas attack.

Meanwhile back to Ukraine – I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson – they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.

Unfortunately it seems it’s already making a big show on Telegram. I don’t think it will end well for the silly young fella. Putin may want to make another show of scaring the West here.

Iran is a major ally of Russia.

Oh come on, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation share absolutely nothing in common, bar one thing – both  face intense Western hostility and they have been driven into each other’s arms by Western policies.

Their relationship is one of convenience and mutual benefit and nothing more – the ayatollahs and Putin’s oligarchy could not possibly be more ideologically at odds.

Iran has become a world expert at circumventing and minimising the effects of Western imposed sanctions, they are now helping the Russians with regards to sanctions because it serves their interests, as does supplying them with hardware such as drones, not for any other reason.

With growing Western hostility towards China, and which no doubt will accelerate under Trump, expect China to increase its cosy relationship with Russia and Iran, and again despite the fact that they share nothing in terms of values and ideology – the Chinese government has a long history of brutally oppressing Muslims, for example.

The history of Western foreign policy is the history of bad decisions. Bad decisions which invariably appear to bite them on the arse, eventually.

There is a blind spot by many with regards to the negative effects of Western foreign policy, no doubt it will continue even when Donald Trump becomes the Leader of the “Free World” in a couple of months time.

Maybe updated it a bit with modern technology but the Mongols definitely added a couple of chapters and the Neo-Assyrians started it off.

Where do the Vikings fit into that as well?

Anyhow, this thread is about Ukraine and while I understand the world is deeply connected in culture and politics, I do think we need to keep it focussed on Ukraine.

I also think we need to agree to differ. I don’t think I will ever completely agree with dazh or chekw, and while I have appreciated their alternative views, always arguing will get us just all het up. So a view point is that – and we do not always need to win a point or persuade people around. Do please keep posting, but let us not get buried.

There are more important things in life, like riding bikes.

(Yes I am new, no I have no problem with falsehood and untruth being challenged, but once it is done, let us move on and not sustain a perpetual argument?)

I think the issue with that is that our purveyors of alternative truths remain adherent to those truths even after their thorough debunking, and bring them up again ad-nauseum.

 I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson

Me too, knowing his service history it’s unlikely he’s had any of the training that might help keep him safe or be useful to help manage the mental aspect of captivity.

There is a blind spot by many with regards to the negative effects of Western foreign policy, no doubt it will continue even when Donald Trump becomes the Leader of the “Free World” in a couple of months time.

There is? I’ve seen none of that in this thread. Some do seem to have a blind spot as regards Russian foreign policy though.

In good news, I see the Ruble has once again put on a dive today:

https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M

Surely we are at a stage where even the hardiest of Russian allies is struggling to take payment in Rubles, and that other currency in Russia is now all but spent? Internally, this drop combined with north of 20% interest and inflation is going to see prices just rocket for every day food etc?

I think the issue with that is that our purveyors of alternative truths remain adherent to those truths even after their thorough debunking, and bring them up again ad-nauseum.

Indeed, they follow mantra ‘The more I write the more I’m right’.

I also see this is the response from Poo-tin and co, clearly only a step from nuclear….

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/nov/26/keir-starmer-labour-tory-jobs-plan-latest-politics-news-live

I think you’d struggle to find many other countries more cynical and destructive than western imperialist powers who have murdered millions, suppressed entire continents, destroyed numerous indigenous cultures and appropriated natural resources on a scale never seen before.

Not really… Russia for starters

Just because they tended to spread their territory on land at the expense of their immediate neighbors rather than by sailing around the world doesn’t make the Russian Federation any less of an Empire and if you read even the most cursory history of Russian since Ivan the Terrible I think you’ll find they tick every box on your list, often many times over and frequently with quite breathtaking brutality.

Where do the Vikings fit into that as well?

That’s an easy one…….the word ‘Russian’ comes from Ruse’ a Viking group who founded the medieval state of Kievan Rus’. Note also the connection with the name of the capital city of Ukraine.

I was thinking on the way home.

I wonder how all this would be if Russia still owned Alaska. Iirc it was sold(?) late 1800’s to USA? I bet there would be a lot more kerfuffle in the west and USA about this conflict.

Oh come on, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation share absolutely nothing in common, bar one thing – both face intense Western hostility and they have been driven into each other’s arms by Western policies.

Their relationship is one of convenience and mutual benefit and nothing more

I don’t know disagree with any of that, but what’s important is the outcome rather than the reasoning behind it.  “My enemy’s enemy is my friend” has been the basis of many an alliance

I wonder how all this would be if Russia still owned Alaska. Iirc it was sold(?) late 1800’s to USA? I bet there would be a lot more kerfuffle in the west and USA about this conflict.

Why? it’s very geographically isolated with a very low population.

I wonder how all this would be if Russia still owned Alaska.

Not only Alaska, but California as well. Fort Ross US history could’ve been so very different at any stage in the early/mid 19thC

With growing Western hostility towards China, and which no doubt will accelerate under Trump, expect China to increase its cosy relationship with Russia and Iran

Maybe not. China is keen on getting a large slice of Russia that they took from the old Chinese empire a while ago (Vladivistock and the like). Some Russia towns in the east are chinese apart from name only by all accounts as they buy stuff up and their people start moving in.

China also sends a very small percentage of its exports to Russia so if it choses Russia over US/EU then its going to take a massive hit on its income.

Everything I have read suggests the Iranians didnt know about Hamas attack up front and would have been unlikely to have been in favour of it. The lower level conflict suited them better.

Hezbollah for example basically didnt get involved beyond the bare minimum until the Israelis escalated. If it was planned by the Iranians I would have expected them to have launched a major offensive shortly after the Hamas attack.

Slight diversion (will not repeat in this thread)

None of the Islamic world leaders knew about Hamas’ attack otherwise that would not happen.  If Iran knew, Israel would know too because they have many moles in Iran and plan would leak out easily.  Hamas’ action is to wake up the entire Islamic world and not the Islamic leaders (too cosy sitting high up on their “thrones”). Notice the world Islamic leaders only started to voice their concerns after the decimation of the Palestinian population? Too late, because they are all in trouble now (distrust in their leaders has started) especially those that have began to inch closer to the Western policies. Israel may have won the battle against Hamas but it actually spells the beginning of an end.

Oh, the common denominator is US. i.e. US applying the old world diplomacy.

Meanwhile back to Ukraine – I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson – they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.

If he is caught inside Russia, then they will consider him a spy and probably belong to some of the special force gathering information etc.  Probably will need Tom Hanks (a good lawyer like the movie Bridge of Spies) to negotiate an exchange.

In good news, I see the Ruble has once again put on a dive today:

Yes, against US Dollar etc, but as long as their trading partners accept Ruble the value of Ruble remains.  If US or the West sanctions those that trade with Russia then they will cause a major problem. i.e. Dollar dumping or avoidance of the payment system (if I own the payment system I would be rich beyond my dream …)

China is keen on getting a large slice of Russia that they took from the old Chinese empire a while ago (Vladivistock and the like). Some Russia towns in the east are chinese apart from name only by all accounts as they buy stuff up and their people start moving in.

China also sends a very small percentage of its exports to Russia so if it choses Russia over US/EU then its going to take a massive hit on its income.

That is precisely my point. Western foreign policy is forcing a relationship which otherwise would be unlikely to exist. And the second Trump presidency’s policy towards China is likely to accelerate this process.

China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world

https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955

(This FT article shouldn’t be behind a paywall, it details how Western sanctions have brought the two countries much closer economically)

Edit: Actually it does seem to be behind a paywall now, this link will circumvent it:

https://archive.li/2024.05.15-114410/https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955

Rubble to the dollar now 107.7 that’s a devaluation of 10% in a week!

Ukraine continues to fire short range missiles into Russia- we are not at war with Russia, MAD did not happen (I know, amazing right, I was convinced it nuclear war this time) – 

So what’s happening?

Russia continues to make small advances at a cost. 1400/1900 troops a day, they are running out of AFVs and are now using civilian vans in their assaults, for instance.
the economy is looking very shaky, industry is short on manpower,

how long can Russia keep this up?

how long can Russia keep this up?

To be fair, we’ve been asking this for months on here. There have been many predictions of Russia’s imminent collapse that haven’t come to fruition, so I’ve become quite sceptical of new ones. Like it or not, I think we have to admit they are more resilient than many of us (me included) gave them credit for.  I’m not saying they can carry on for ever with such losses and economic impact, but it might be for a good while longer yet. Although, I’m sure Ukraine’s resolve is far greater as they are fighting for their very existence rather than imperial conquest.

Like it or not, I think we have to admit they are more resilient than many of us (me included) have them credit for.

So far the Russian Army has lost 700,000 (at least) troops, some 3,500 MBT, and well over 7,000 armoured vehicles. The reason they cam keep going is the vast stockpiles of ex-Soviet era tanks, and vehicles in storage. The Russian MOD reckons it can bring at least 1,200 tanks a year to front line service – although these are now T80/T72 era and are comparatively vulnerable. But much much smaller numbers of more sophisticated tanks like the T90 ( its estimated they can only build about 28 a year) Given Russian tactics though – quantity over quality, and a high tolerance for casualties,  it doesn’t really matter. The one area that Russia has a massive advantage over Ukraine (and Western/NATO forces for that matter) is artillery. The MSTA-B and D30 are  both more accurate and can sustain a higher rate of fire than anything the west can field. Its not an overstatement today that without them, the war would look significantly different. Now that N Korea are supplying rounds, and Syria are supplying the forged casings for artillery rounds, Russia can probably sustain the offensive at least into 2025 at the rate they’re going

Interestingly enough, Russia are also modifying their battlefield Army organisation, they’ve reverted to more traditional (read Soviet) Battalion organisations – operation is now at ( below Combined Arms Armies) smaller Line and Storm battalions which are tactically easier to re-deploy and manoeuvre. The significant detail is that like Ukraine, Russia has lost a good portion of it’s senior battlefield leadership and is very hastily training more junior officers to replaced those lost and these are done in training battalions on the border. After the Wagner crisis, more and more of the Army is being restricted to these smaller and more localised organisations, although there’s still something approaching half a million Russian troops in Ukraine.

how long can Russia keep this up?

Just a week longer that the Ukrainians.

Also

The reason Russia can sustain that many lost troops is that of course these are mostly contract soldiers as opposed to the conscript army. The two are very different. After the experience of Afghanistan, the Russian public were horrified at the loss, and new laws were implemented that meant that conscripts weren’t allowed to be deployed overseas. Something that Putin has maintained. All the current losses are being sustained by contracted soldiers, and recruitment is currently still at about 85% of target – the money on offer is too good to ignore for many.