Ukraine

That’s like saying it’s okay for my neighbour to pre-emptively punch me in the face because I am planning on having a noisy BBQ in the summer. Muppet

Yes but lets not forget that one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO

No it wasn’t, it was a convenient excuse that Putin used to do the thing that he wanted to do. There is no scenario in which any of Russia aggression is Ukraine’s fault. If NATO had declared that it was barring Ukraine from joining, Putin would’ve declared that he using that as the go ahead signal that he could do what he wants.

dazh

Yes but lets not forget that one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO which Putin was never going to accept.

Sorry daz but no, just no, Zelensky wasn’t even in power when Crimea/ Eastern Ukraine was invaded in, what? 2014.

Had NATO ruled out the prospect of Ukraine joining from the outset we would probably be in a very different place today.

Putin has no more right to control Ukrainian domestic or foreign policy than we have to control the Republic of Ireland’s for instance.

one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO which Putin was never going to accept.

It’s not up to Putin who joins NATO.

[dazh]

dazh

Full Member

Come on @dazh, what’s your red line? At what point is it time to say enough is enough?

I’ve already said that if a NATO country was attacked by Russia that would require direct NATO involvement. It’s pretty obvious that’s what the red line is, isn’t it?

ah, the problem with that red-line is that Article 5 doesn’t expressly mean that NATO has a joined response, it’s left to individual countries to do what it deems as necessary – and that extends to but does not mean militarily.  Putin knows this, so he can do what ever he likes in a hybrid warfare arena -such as crashing DHL planes (few of those recently), or poisoning people (novichock), leaving IED’s in airports and trainstations  (Gatwick and Euston this last weekend) – all aimed at disrupting life not too dissimilar to what ISIS where doing.  All examples technically breech the threshold, but the individual states are allowed to decide what it should do about it!

Come on @dazh, what’s your red line? At what point is it time to say enough is enough?

I’ve already said that if a NATO country was attacked by Russia that would require direct NATO involvement. It’s pretty obvious that’s what the red line is, isn’t it?

Yes but lets not forget that one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO which Putin was never going to accept.

Yeah cant see why Zelensky would want to join a defensive alliance against getting invaded.

Although given that Russia had already invaded Ukraine in 2014 I am not sure it really adds up as a reason vs just Putin felt it his troops were in a position to finish the job.

Putin was actually worried about NATO encroachment

Its amazing how this bit of Kremlin propaganda was once far left myth is now a far right MAGA myth

NATO didnt force anyone to join up, the only people that held a gun to their head was Russia, every time they invaded a former soviet country saw a round of countries signing up –
• Poland, Hungary , Czech all joined up after the 1st Chechen War
• The next round of enlargement was after the 2nd Chechen War when Russia levelled Grozny (using tactics theyd repeat in Ukraine) Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia all jumped on.
• Then after the invasion of Ossetia and Georgia , Albania & Croatia joined.
• Russia invaded Donbass and Crimea – Macedonia & then Montenegro joined
• And after the latest invasion Finland & Sweden joined after years of trying to be neutral.

And Ukraine have been asking for years to join but the west kept stalling & delaying for fear of upsetting Russia (because we wanted cheap oil & gas)  and look at the result, had we said yes the first time they asked then this war couldve been avoided

Yes but lets not forget that one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO which Putin was never going to accept.

“just surrender and it won’t hurt at all”

Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO

Wow… How dare a sovereign state form alliances, sign treaties and trade deals! The very cheek of it!

Muppet

Nice! Funny isn’t it how I get all sort of abuse for earlier using the phrase ‘idiots’ but I’m guessing the same people won’t bat an eyelid in this case.

Irregardless of the right and wrongs of of whether Ukraine should have been allowed to join NATO, the simple fact is that Putin was never going to allow it one way or the other. Yes he may have invaded even if NATO had ruled out Ukrainian membership, but leaving the possibility open guaranteed the outcome we see now. We simply don’t know what would have happened if NATO had ruled it out, but my guess is that we would be in a very different place right now.

had we said yes the first time they asked then this war couldve been avoided

Think this is also true. NATO dithering and incompetence has played a large part in where we are today and NATO should acknowledge this in any negotiations to bring an end to the war. They won’t though, they’ll just allow it to grind on while the younger generation of Ukrainian men are wiped out so they can save face.

I reckon the reality is that there was no way to avoid Putin invading. Looks very much to me like a geo-political fait accompli. What’s important now is how to bring it to an end before the west and Russia end up at war with each other.

ElShalimo
Full Member
That’s like saying it’s okay for my neighbour to pre-emptively punch me in the face because I am planning on having a noisy BBQ in the summer. Muppet

I fundamentally disagree with dazh on this single thread subject** but he’s not definitely not a muppet.

Sorry, it’s just the thread is better when it’s not personalised imo, though I totally understand why we can all get a bit too invested in the discussions given what’s going on over there.

We all agree its a bloody tragedy, we just disagree on how it came to this or the best way out of it for Ukraine.

** Many other threads on various topics I agree with a lot of what he says.

Sorry, it’s just the thread is better when it’s not personalised imo,

I totally agree but unfortunately that is always going to happen on this thread. Most contributors to this thread don’t want to go beyond seeing the subject from a simple black and white perspective, which is why I think Daz is wasting his time, and why I rarely contribute, beyond the occasional observational comment.

the right and wrongs of of whether Ukraine should have been allowed to join NATO

Allowed by who? Ukraine is an independent country.

Anyway.. On the best way out of this… Is for European countries to do much as they are with the end game of beating Russia back and out of Ukraine.

For the sake of Ukrainians and somewhat selfishly for the future of general European security.

Putin didn’t stop with the invasion and annexation of Crimea.. What possible reason would putin have to stop at taking yet more territory unless he is stopped?

The answer is none.

I have some Lithuanian friends, now settled in Spain… And they don’t talk about Russia, and it’s probably best not to ask.. If you made any sort of pro Russian comment to them, I doubt you would walk away with your teeth and kneecaps intact!

Most contributors on this thread don’t want to go beyond seeing the subject from a simple black and white perspective

This has always been where I’m coming from on this subject. No doubt many on here think I’m a Putin apologist or whatever but I’m really not. I have very little interest in pointing fingers and wailing about how evil Putin is or how unfair it is on the Ukrainians, and only interested in how it is brought to an end before the world goes up in a cloud of radioactive dust. I guess it probably is a waste of time but I’m not going to stop however much abuse I get.

I guess it probably is a waste of time but I’m not going to stop however much abuse I get.

So you’re going to keep on trotting out lies that get throughly and (mostly) patiently debunked?

There’s a word for that.

Allowed by who?

You can’t join NATO unless it’s existing members agree to it.

What possible reason would putin have to stop at taking yet more territory unless he is stopped?

There are plenty. Given the human and economic cost of the Ukraine war I doubt Putin or anyone else in Russia has much appetite for a rerun. Each scenario needs to be judged by the facts on the ground and the positions of the various actors. Just because something happened before, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. That’s why comparisons with the appeasement of Hitler are so wide of the mark.

So you’re going to keep on trotting out lies

What lies? You think anyone with a different view is peddling lies? There’s a name for that too.

Yes he may have invaded even if NATO had ruled out Ukrainian membership, but leaving the possibility open guaranteed the outcome we see now.

No it did not. There would have been only two options to avoid the war.

• Install a puppet Russian government in Ukraine to run it as poorly as Russia is being run and hence not set an alternate example.
• Ukraine being given immediate Nato membership.

He had already invaded prior to Nato membership being discussed. It was a major part of why Zelensky etc wanted it as an option.

What lies? You think anyone with a different view is peddling lies?

They become lies rather than an a “different view” once they get dubunked with actual facts, and then get trotted out again…and again…and again…

So @dazh…

Your solution would be to throw Ukraine to the wolves and all the misery Russia will inflict on them?

Not only that, but you belive putin would only stop there?

If we ignore the plight of the Ukrainians and on a selfish level…and just let it become Russian territory…

What do you think would happen to the cost of living in Europe and by extension, the UK, given the *vast* agriculture industry in Ukraine?

Russia would love it.. They could then not only use gas as blackmail, but food supply too.

You are off your rocker. No offense intended.

once they get dubunked with actual facts

What facts? I mostly see opinions and assumptions on this thread with a healthy dose of whataboutery. Saying Putin will invade the west if he isn’t stopped in Ukraine is an opinion not a fact.

Your solution would be to throw Ukraine to the wolves and all the misery Russia will inflict on them?

Where have I said that? I don’t have a solution, and it’s not up to me to come up with one. I want all the parties to come up with one though that doesn’t end in us going to war with Russia. Seems to me a lot of people on this thread just want ‘victory’ at all costs no matter where it leads us.

What facts?

The ones that explain this in less words: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations

TLDR: Ukraine didn’t make moves towards wanting to join NATO until after the annexation of Crimea, by, you guessed it, Russia.

What lies?

The ones that require time travel to make any sense.

Ukraine was already losing ground to Russia before Zelensky was elected. This isn’t on him, or any moves he made to try and stop further Russian advancement though calls on existing protection agreements [ such as the Budapest Memorandum ], or attempts to get new ones [ stepping up NATO partnership and EU accession talks after Yanukovych had all but paused them ].

I used to be pretty sceptical of us having nukes, in an ideal world I still would be, but now? Having seen what happened to Ukraine after giving up it’s nuclear arsenal? Sod that.

This is where I’m at, reluctantly. I know that Ukraine really had no real choice but to disarm, and they did so as part of the only path towards peace in the region… but that path was entirely reliant on their old “partner” and other world powers not using the remaining nuclear capability as a threat to back up conventional destruction. I used to by all for total unilateral disarmament, but accept now that it can only go so far… complete nuclear disarmament can only safely come about though worldwide agreements, and strong policing of those agreements.

It doesnt take much digging to see that every time Russia invades another country other countries sign up  to NATO, usually following referenda or elections of parties that promised to do explicitly that

Its almost as if a country run by a  guy who has  stated he wants to rebuild the USSR and has demonstrated time and again that hes willing to take them by force…….. clarifies peoples minds

I think they only way of a lasting peace deal now would be for Ukraine to join NATO, otherwise Russia will simply keep rearming for the next invasion.

Wow… How dare a sovereign state form alliances, sign treaties and trade deals! The very cheek of it!

Some folk in Havana are interested in this concept.

one though that doesn’t end in us going to war with Russia.

According to the red lines he’s set at various points of this conflict he considers Russia is already at war with the west.

NATO dithering and incompetence has played a large part in where we are today

I think the collectives world response to his invasion of Crimea and the two South Eastern regions of Ukraine in 2014 was poor, and I agree that that decision undoubtedly made further invasions by Putin more likely, in that we have a responsibility to aid Ukraine.  the response wasn’t NATO’s decision though.  I still think the only just outcome is the total withdrawal of Russian military from the entirety of Ukraine (including Crimea) and UN resolutions to make it difficult for ‘future’ Russia to do the same again. Anything short of that is capitulation.

Ukraine was already losing ground to Russia before Zelensky was elected. This isn’t on him

I didn’t say it was on Zelensky*, but Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for a long time, and NATO have been trying to get them to join for a long time. Since 2008 in fact…

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm

“NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO.  We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.  Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations.  We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May.  MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership.  Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for MAP.  Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications.  We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting.  Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.”

*edit: Well ok I did, but what I really meant was that Zelensky is the latest and most vocal in a number of Ukrainian leaders with unrealistic NATO ambitions.

No doubt many on here think I’m a Putin apologist or whatever but I’m really not.

I was going to post an hilarious meme in the style of Binners but decided I really can’t be arsed.

why are Ukraine’s NATO/EU ambitions singularly unrealistic when other former Soviet states – Poland, Hungry, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania (off the top of my head) and other countries that share a border with  Russia (Finland, Sweden, Turkey)  have joined either one or both?

Wow, been out for a bike ride (I know, right) and it’s all kicked off in here! @dazh for the record, seeing as I called you out for your idiot comment the other day, the Muppet comment directed at you was equally out of order. There is no need for personal abuse at all. Having a different opinion is allowed, and when it’s in the face of such a large consensus, it takes some courage, which I respect.

I don’t think you’re a Putin apologist, I get that you are genuinely concerned at the risks of a wider conflict, which is absolutely valid. I disagree with you fundamentally on a lot of your conclusions and thoughts on how we should deal with Russia, but my take and everyone else’s carries no more weight than yours. I’m glad you are going to continue posting, alternative views challenging the consensus on here are healthy.

It would be great if the rest of us could be a bit more tolerant of alternative views. If this thread is just going to be an echo chamber where we agree on everything, what’s the point?

why are Ukraine’s NATO/EU ambitions singularly unrealistic when other former Soviet states

I guess because Putin wasn’t as bothered about them? It might not be what we like, but ultimately what he and Russia want is important. It would be lovely to ignore Putin and just do what we/Ukraine want but that’s not how the world works is it?

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of any. Can you give some examples?

A quick google brings up Mike Pence and President Obama on Syria and also over Iran.

Which you could have easily found had you bothered to go look for yourself. But seems you need somebody to hold your hand and walk you through these things.

*edit: Well ok I did, but what I really meant was that Zelensky is the latest and most vocal in a number of Ukrainian leaders with unrealistic NATO ambitions.

Fair enough, that makes sense now, even if I don’t agree.

Interestingly that quote mentions Georgia, that is probably the next Crimea.

And it is still the lack of a firm and enforced defence agreement that has doomed Ukraine, not the seeking of outside help. We (especially those countries involved in supporting Ukraine’s military denuclearisation) have let the people of Ukraine down. And worse is yet to come I fear.

I’m partly agreeing with dazh.

Think this is also true. NATO dithering and incompetence has played a large part in where we are today and NATO should acknowledge this in any negotiations to bring an end to the war. They won’t though, they’ll just allow it to grind on while the younger generation of Ukrainian men are wiped out so they can save face.

I agree with what, but the motivation I think is more complex, with a healthy dose of a weakened Russia is good for us all.

a number of Ukrainian leaders with unrealistic NATO ambitions.

Why do you think it’s unrealistic? Yes they had/have huge issues in society and politics to solve before they can join, but a sovereign state deciding for itself to form alliances seems perfectly reasonable, no matter how aspirational.

I’m also of the view that any appeasement of Putin would and still be completely useless. Putin has many times stated he aims to take back into Russian control many states they used to have influence over in USSR and previously in history*. The only way that they can do this is through manipulation, undermining or invasion. There’s a long list of European countries (both geographically and politically) that he’s got in mind. Any appeasement or weakness through capitulation would have led to an emboldened Russia, with more resources and finance, and more instability and invasions. Ukraine happened to be the one country they saw as weak, full of resources to plunder (humans included), and in the way physically from invading the next few countries.

Ukraine has no choice but to fight – because to capitulate would be easily as violent and endure due longer.

I have thought that the west needs to continue to step up. You only have to look at the countries ‘next on the list’ and next door to Russia and the huge efforts they are making to defend what they expect to be coming should Russia win.

I’m also aware of the huge interference Russia has in the UK at present. My staff at work happen to be married to military, civil aviation and technology folk – and all three are having significant issues around security and interference from Russia. I really want our press to pick this up, but it seems security suggests playing down some of the issues is needed.

*his history is all over the place, and ignores choice of alliance Vs oppression.

No, Ukraine Cannot join NATO, regardless.

It is Not up to America/NATO/EU etc to determine if a sovereign state has the right or not to join NATO, when another power is nearby.

It is exactly similar to the principle of Monroe Doctrine where no other power or influence is allowed near America, hence Cuba (and some other S.American states) suffers the consequences.

The notion of “peace” as determined by NATO is obsolete, if not dangerous, when another nation bordering another powerful nation wants to join NATO.

Peace can only be achieved if a buffer zone is established, and only in this context that Ukraine can achieve peace if they consider themselves as the buffer zone state between two powers, no matter how sovereign a state they can be.

It is all about Power and Power sets the rules.  Look at history when half the world was part of the British empire and where Britain exerted their dominance over other nations in the name of “peace”.  In those days, nations that could not or had no ability to fight back got dominated.  Hence, gunboat diplomacy.  Fast forward to 21st century, we have rocket diplomacy.

In fact, if Ukraine remains “neutral” they can enjoy the best of both world but they think the grass is greener on the other side.

It is exactly similar to the principle of Monroe Doctrine where no other power or influence is allowed near America, hence Cuba (and some other S.American states) suffers the consequences.

Can you please explain the FOUR neighbouring countries that have been in NATO for the last 20 years?

Can you please explain the FOUR neighbouring countries that have been in NATO for the last 20 years?

Google is your friend.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm

What’s your point?

edit:  Those are not koala bear next door but Kamchatka bear so should naturally instil fear on those that come too close.

What’s your point?

That you’re testiculating. Again. At least it wasn’t incomprehensible babble this time.

…but Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for a long time, and NATO have been trying to get them to join for a long time. Since 2008 in fact…

Daz, you’ve chosen the minutes from the two-day Bucharest summit on 3 April 2008. It doesn’t give a balanced history, rather a snapshot

In fact, Ukraine agreed in 2010 not to pursue NATO membership, which was a policy of Russia-leaning then-President Yanukovych and supported by international Pew Research opinion polls https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/03/29/ukraine-says-no-to-nato/

The Kremlin would be very well aware of all of this and the vote in Ukraine’s parliament to be a militarily non-aligned country was widely reported https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10229626

In fact, if Ukraine remains “neutral” they can enjoy the best of both world but they think the grass is greener on the other side.

They were neutral.

And yet Russia invaded in 2014 and 2021.

So I’m not sure that counts as ‘enjoy’.