Ukraine

aphex_2k
Free Member
Heard on news that “drones” have been seen over a couple of US bases in UK. And Putin saying allies of Ukraine are just as much targets now. Media hyperbole or actual threat?

One of Putin’s well known tactics has been to pay criminals or sympathisers a few hundred dollars/euros to get them to set a warehouse on fire etc. If these drone incursions are real, they are very much of the bought on Amazon variety and the “threat”, such as it is, it to sow fear and division in the population of allied states. It’s absolutely classic Putin, hybrid warfare shenanigans.

China actively encourages (by sctively I mean, it makes zero attempts to stop it and it absolutely could if it wished) it’s citizens to fly drones over Taiwan’s military bases for the same reasons.

Anyone who thinks Putin using a nuke in Ukraine wouldn’t escalate into a wider nuclear war is living in fantasyland.

There are two points here:
There’s no reason for him to use nuclear weapons of any sort
If there isn’t a reason, there won’t be an escalation into nuclear war

Let’s take a step back and look at why there isn’t a reason for him to use nuclear weapons of any sort.

Russia has been struggling to take more than 20% of Ukraine since 2014. Russia unceremoniously retreated from an attempt on the other 80% following the August 2022 Kherson counter-offensive and the Sept 2022 Kharkiv offensive. Why didn’t he use them then?

Russia is making more progress now than it has for some time; it didn’t use nuclear weapons when retreating, so why now that it’s on the offensive?

Nothing that the west has done has been serious enough on a strategic game-changing level to promote nuclear war. Storm Shadow/SCALP/ATACMS have been used to attack Russian targets for between 12 months (ATACMS) and 18 months (Storm Shadow/SCALP) and nuclear weapons haven’t been used.

Arguably, because Russia has been making the first escalations, eventually they will escalate to nuclear weapons and I won’t be able to convince you otherwise. The problem with that argument is that you are only thinking of Russia and President Putin, which is the media POV amplified by sources such as Kim Jong Un, Alexander Lukashenko and Viktor Orban.

Of countries more closely allied with Russia, China is openly against nuclear weapon use and is observing international sanctions while Iran has stepped back from wider conflict with Israel; don’t discount their influence and that of others.

Finally, “Ukraine and the states in the region not bought and paid for by Putin such as Hungary and Slovakia, are supporting Ukraine in its campaign for ranged attacks. If they are not worried, maybe those further away can stop losing their heads.” https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-108-ukrainian-ranged

Putin saying allies of Ukraine are just as much targets now.

Putin’s target audience is mostly the Russian public, he’s posturing as a tough guy for a domestic audience. He’s been issuing threats like that for years but has not carried out any direct attacks, including against Sweden and Finland who both joined NATO despite Putin saying that he would not tolerate NATO countries on Russia’s border.

Germany’s Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius: is quite switched on about Putin.

“He proved in this war that he (Putin) never needed a provocation to escalate. Rather, he escalated when he thought an escalation was the right thing to do for tactical reasons.”

Worth watching the full excerpt

https://bsky.app/profile/jacy1892.bsky.social/post/3lbmzoivdyk2g

There is no scenario where using Nukes gives Putin a tactical advantage

Putin’s target audience is mostly the Russian public, he’s posturing as a tough guy for a domestic audience. He’s been issuing threats like that for years but has not carried out any direct attacks

This has been the American line too. How many times have you heard them use the phrase “No option is off the table”

Just as they say, ‘Sabre rattling’

How many times have you heard them use the phrase “No option is off the table”

Off the top of my head, I can’t think of any. Can you give some examples?

There is no scenario where using Nukes gives Putin a tactical advantage

Maybe not right now but there are scenarios which move Putin closer to thinking he has nothing left to lose. The reality is that if the risk of Putin using nuclear arms is to be kept to a minimum (and it must be kept to a minimum), then he needs to be able to save face and get something out of the current situation. It’s all very well shouting ‘nothing but all out defeat will do’ but the reality will be very different. As has always been the case since the start of the cold war, prevention is the only cure to the nuclear problem.

Come on @dazh, what’s your red line? At what point is it time to say enough is enough?

Putin isn’t going to launch a nuke because of a fear of MAD.

So which of Putins previous red lines should not have been crossed? Any, all, none?

Worse case scenario question.

If the worse does happen, and the northern part of the planet is turned into radioactive rubble, and those who survive the blasts inevitably succumb to sickness or starvation.

Would China or even the more Southern countries have enough reserves to survive to then become the dominant world power?

China is the worlds largest food/agricultural products importer and has a long and painful history with food security and when that goes wrong. I know they, quite sensibly have ambitions to reduce their reliance on food imports but that will take a long time to achieve.

Long read here https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-food-security-key-challenges-and-emerging-policy-responses

The UK would be double ******

Went down a rabbit hole of yt shorts Joe Rogan  taking about Ukraine.

Wow. But not in a good way.

His is the most listened to podcast.

The guy’s a ****.

e-machine
Free Member
Worse case scenario question.

If the worse does happen, and the northern part of the planet is turned into radioactive rubble, and those who survive the blasts inevitably succumb to sickness or starvation.

Would China or even the more Southern countries have enough reserves to survive to then become the dominant world power?

Hypothetically speaking here. I’m not stock piling beans, this isn’t a man that looks ready to die of covid or radiation poisoning.

Anyway…

If the whole theory of nukes triggering a nuclear winter turns out to be true, I doubt there will be any country in a position to be a world power. Of anything.

I suspect though, if we wanted to think in the terms of which regions/ countries might be least effected, it could well be the least “sophisticated” societies that fair the best.

They don’t need Google as they are still used to hunter gathering or living directly off the land via simple, non intensive horticulture.

The rest of us are way, way too reliant on technology to survive imo. Once the tinned food run out its basically a pretty fast decline to The Road and beyond.

All the above said, I still think that pastural societies are still buggered, turn the sun off, via a nuclear winter and not much survives, however good it is at living off the land

Not even touched on tainted drinking water, the death of the oceans and all the other things we can’t even imagine as a nuclear war has never happened.

That said, X will be gone. It’s not all bad.

x/space Karen be in his teslabunka planning the next phase which ends with him eating his own feet.

scuttler
Full Member
x/space Karen be in his teslabunka planning the next phase which ends with him eating his own feet.

Ridiculous..

He’ll eat someone elses feet. 😉

It’s widely reported today that Andrey Rudenko, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs (not the boxer from Ukraine), has warned South Korea not to send weapons to Ukraine “and will respond in any way deemed necessary” (exact translations vary) and any such exports will destroy relations between the two countries.

SKorea is technically at war with NKorea and has a strong arms industry; they’ve been considering supply more strongly since NKorean troops began training in Russia last month, “Officials agreed to take phased countermeasures, linking the level of their responses to progress in Russian-North Korean military cooperation, according to the statement.” https://www.itv.com/news/2024-10-23/south-korea-warns-it-could-send-weapons-to-ukraine

Would China or even the more Southern countries have enough reserves to survive to then become the dominant world power?

In the event of full scale nuke, Northern hemisphere will have severe dark radioactive winter while Southern hemisphere will have gloomy days with something (little) to eat.

Dominant world power?  Everyone (the whole world) will be starving and dominating the world is the last thing on their minds.

Putin isn’t going to launch a nuke because of a fear of MAD.

So which of Putins previous red lines should not have been crossed? Any, all, none?

The current situation is tense especially if NATO (I mean Biden’s administration) still thinks they have the upper hand even after Russia showcased their hazel nuts flower (Oreshnik).

Red line?  Why not NATO send their Tomahawk to test it out after Stormshadow?  I wonder if the Iron Dome can catch any of the Mach 10 Hazel Nuts flower as they rain down from the sky with their kinetic force.

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

I want some of what you’re smoking Chewy, do you ever read over your posts before hitting send or is it just a stream of (un)conscious thought?

Yes but away from Gardener’s World the Russian actions may well prompt South Korea to send a couple more shells to Ukraine.

I want some of what you’re smoking Chewy, do you ever read over your posts before hitting send or is it just a stream of (un)conscious thought?

Russia has given all the warning but somehow many in the west still think it is a good idea to escalate already hopeless situation.

Yes but away from Gardener’s World the Russian actions may well prompt South Korea to send a couple more shells to Ukraine.

South Korea’s action is simply futile.

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

I seen this on a Superdry hoodie once. I’m sure it’s not original.

Chew…

Sometimes your posts (on the Ukrainian thread) sadden me a little, sometimes they confuse the sod out of me then:

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

And I remember that, all things considered, I’m glad you are on the forum! 🙂

Edit: Nobody saw that right, right! I swear to God, predictive will get me punched one day! 😀

If, and it’s a big if, Putin is ever going to use a nuclear weapon my guess is that it will be when he’s on his deathbed, when he personally has nothing to lose.

Probably just in Ukraine (if I can’t have it no one will) but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the UK is a target. We are very much at the top of the list of countries which annoy him and might be the one he chooses to make an example of.

It’s sufficiently unlikely, and there’s nothing I can do about it anyway, so I’m not going to worry.

As an aside, how worried is Putin about MAD? If he decides to flatten Ukraine, the UK, or everyone else will we retaliate? We’ve seen, even before Ukraine, that he has no problem attacking civilians (Allepo for instance) so we have to assume that he would use his on big cities. The west are generally more concerned with not killing civilians, does that make the threat/deterrent effect less? Ours would probably be launched at their silos, launch sites, naval bases etc rather than Moscow and St Petersburg, whereas he’s just as likely to go for London as he is for Faslane. Anyway, is our detterant less because of this?

Sorry, not “bit quoting” you in what can be the very STW way of nitpicking your post apart in a bid to somehow say my opinion must be right! Lol  I’m just doing it to give my own thoughts on what are perfectly valid points and anyway.. what do I know at the end of the day? 🙂

andrewh
Free Member
If, and it’s a big if, Putin is ever going to use a nuclear weapon my guess is that it will be when he’s on his deathbed, when he personally has nothing to lose.

True but when he’s at that point, there will already be the other big players he has suppressed for decades lining up their own succession bids. They won’t want to reign over an irradiated desert. I suspect when the other players smell his weakness and get wind of a possible, “nuke the world” scenario, Putin’s control of the levers of power will erode incredibly quickly. Now, possible successors may well not be better than Putin but they are likely younger, wealthy and have families and will get to rule their own country. Having all that means nothing of you are dead. They also likely think Putin is mad to risk what he has to try and establish a new Soviet empire. The are likely just as nasty but far more pragmatic and likely have no love for the old Empire. Sod the risks of building a new one, Russia is huge and for many despots it’ll be plenty large enough.

Probably just in Ukraine (if I can’t have it no one will) but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the UK is a target. We are very much at the top of the list of countries which annoy him and might be the one he chooses to make an example of.

We’ve been a target for years, assassinations, literal use of a WMD on our soil, numerous hacks on government and civil institutions etc. We just chose to bury our heads and not to see it for what it was, a new way of waging war. If he he turned it into a conventional war he knows full well there is NATO and he is buggered. His use of waves of meat charging enemy positions won’t work against a modern military with a far better air force. If he went nuclear, ignoring the rest of the world and what they would do, the captain’s of our nuclear deterrent subs will have sealed orders from the PM to open and I don’t see them being, “it’s ok guys, live and let live.” I used to be pretty sceptical of us having nukes, in an ideal world I still would be, but now? Having seen what happened to Ukraine after giving up it’s nuclear arsenal? Sod that.

As an aside, how worried is Putin about MAD? If he decides to flatten Ukraine, the UK, or everyone else will we retaliate?

He *is* flattening Ukraine, when you see the towns he has liberated/conquered his standard way of achieving that is to absolutely obliterate everything that’s there, every building and every man, woman and child that hasn’t cleared out first. If you look at the before and after pics of the places Russia has gained control of, it’s appalling. Ptetty much medieval. He doesnt need nukes to do what he’s doing, it’s far, far less risky for him to carry on doing it with conventional arms.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it all. 🙂

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

No amount of monkeys, no amount of typewriters, no amount of time………

Sorry, not “bit quoting” you in what can be the very STW way of nitpicking your post apart in a bid to somehow say my opinion must be right! Lol I’m just doing it to give my own thoughts on what are perfectly valid points and anyway.. what do I know at the end of the day? ?

No, it’s good. I’m just musing, and ultimately know no more than anyone else here, it’s good to have these musings challenged and hear other perspectives on it all.

Maybe not right now but there are scenarios which move Putin closer to thinking he has nothing left to lose.

While it’s true that the Russian armed forces doctrine has a much lower barrier for use-case for battlefield nuclear weapons than NATO, and with the caveat that we must always take all threats of the use of these weapons seriously, I cannot see that a resolution that preserves the integrity of Ukraine, and removes Russians forces from currently occupied land that is either back up directly by NATO troops in Ukraine, or concludes in negotiations that reassure Ukraine sufficiently for it’s future protection i.e. NATO or EU membership should cause their use.

Putin has always escalated. and the use of that is a deliberate tactic to keep the west off guard, but the resolution that everybody wants – Russian withdrawal, doesn’t require the use of them taking into account the possible follow-up.

Please give me the strength for what I’m about to do…

Dominant world power? Everyone (the whole world) will be starving and dominating the world is the last thing on their minds.

Which is why this won’t happen…

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

Same post, it doesn’t go both ways

I love this phrase

…mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower

How many $bn has this missile cost to develop? How many $mn did that one cost?

The point about this was that it was a huge PR exercise. 36 weighted missiles for a test project that would be nuclear armed and so lack any accuracy as a kinetic payload. It would only hit a ship in an ocean by pure chance

Operationally it was a waste of components, as will the launch of any others (Ukraine thinks that up to 10 exist in various states of preparedness)

Why not NATO send their Tomahawk to test it out after Stormshadow?

That isn’t a NATO decision, that’s the Russian by-line.

Why not? Because Storm Shadow is a lot less of an escalation; it’s never had a nuclear warhead, the range is about 1/6 of Tomahawk and couldn’t threaten Moscow from Ukraine. It’s the better missile for the job and it doesn’t warrant a nuclear response

No amount of monkeys, no amount of typewriters, no amount of time………

It’s funny you should say that as last night I was thinking to myself that Chewy’s posts remind me of Shakespeare. When I see something written by Shakespeare my usual first reaction is “what a load of shite”, but if I can be arsed to give it a bit more attention it starts to make a bit more sense.

Chewy’s posts on this page actually make quite a bit of sense to me, although admittedly I had to read them more than once to get the gist.

Russia has given all the warning but somehow many in the west still think it is a good idea to escalate already hopeless situation.

The west haven’t escalated at all, and in fact the USA is studiously making sure that it doesn’t provide Ukraine with permissions, information, or supplies to mount anything like a proper defence, it’s whole strategy is keeping it contained  China, Iran, and North Korea on the other hand are contributing directly to allow Russia to continue with their aggression.

Come on @dazh, what’s your red line? At what point is it time to say enough is enough?

I’ve already said that if a NATO country was attacked by Russia that would require direct NATO involvement. It’s pretty obvious that’s what the red line is, isn’t it?

Personally I think we are more likely to see a nuke used in israel than we are ukraine.  I think ukraine / russia is going to keep rumbling on, with Russia making slow but steady progress at huge cost.

I don’t see an off ramp, I cannot see ukraine ‘winning’ or russia ‘losing’.  So some sort of frozen conflict like the press is starting to push on to us is the most probable outcome.

If I genuinely thought uk was about to be nuked I would be looking to get my family out, no idea where or how, but I wouldn’t be sat here typing on STW….

Chewy’s posts on this page actually make quite a bit of sense to me

Whilst his posts sometimes baffle me, I aim off for the likelihood that English is not his first language. I do value his perspective as someone from the opposite side of the globe. I think the forum is a little too regionally/demographically homogeneous for a totally objective view of the conflict. There are nuggets of wisdom amongst the strangeness. The strangeness can be pretty epic too though to be fair. I can definitely say he does not remind me of Shakespeare, unless the bard was on the ‘shrooms!

I wonder how aircraft carriers will react if they are faced with mach 10 hazel nuts flower shower.

Well any USA/NATO carrier battle group will be completely covered by multiple overlapping AEGIS and CIWS systems, each of which makes the 20 year old Patriots Ukraine had been using look like something you’d get out of an Xmas cracker,

If the missiles start flying then an NATO carrier battle group may actually be the safest place on earth to be.

Unlike the Kremlin, no matter how bloody deep Putin’s bunker is.

I’ve already said that if a NATO country was attacked by Russia

Russia doesn’t have the capability to fight two wars on different fronts.  It’s taking Russia’s entire economy to keep this one going. That’s why there’s 10,000 North Korean troops in Kursk, Russia’s not going to attack any NATO countries. NATO isn’t the reason it launched an attack on Ukraine, after all if Putin was actually worried about NATO encroachment (like we’ve been told is apparently legitimate) Why has he done nothing about Finland and Sweden both on his border and joining NATO?

Russia doesn’t have the capability to fight two wars on different fronts.

Yes I’m well aware of that. I was just answering the question about what I think the red line is, and that’s it. I’m really not worried about Putin attacking a NATO country. That doesn’t help Ukraine of course, but some here seem to be suggesting that NATO be more directly involved in Ukraine, which I think would be very dangerous and stupid.

Putin was actually worried about NATO encroachment

Which is utter bollocks. Poland joined in 99, the 3 Baltic States in 2004. So 4 direct neighbours since 20 years ago !

NATO expansion since the 2004 cohort was into the smaller Baltic nations who are not direct neighbours and have no regional power.

but some here seem to be suggesting that NATO be more directly involved in Ukraine, which I think would be very dangerous and stupid.

I think the negotiations to end this will involve either UN troops in an demilitarised zone (inside Russia) and those will come from European and NATO forces, or Ukraine being able to join EU/NATO. Both of those currently will set off the sabre rattling that Putin does to keep the west on the back foot. At some point this needs to end with Russia withdrawing it’s forces totally and Ukraine being satisfied that Russia will be prevented from doing the same again. There’s no point at which it makes any sense to use Nuclear weaponry. I think, unless he’s being fed nonsense, Putin already knows that this isn’t going to end the way he envisioned it, and throwing nukes around isn’t going to change that for the better.

Which is utter bollocks.

Yes but lets not forget that one of the things that started this nightmare was Zelensky openly talking about Ukraine joining NATO which Putin was never going to accept. Had NATO ruled out the prospect of Ukraine joining from the outset we would probably be in a very different place today.