Ukraine

funkmasterp
Full Member
I’ve been following this thread since the start and I’m dismayed by how long it has gone on for and the loss of life as a result. A question for everyone, is Russia toothless? I get the distinct impression that if their bluff were to be called they’d fold like a cheap tent. A huge gamble but how long could this drag on for otherwise.

It’s a mafia family with nukes and it’s going to have one hell of an economic hangover after the war is over. Ironically, it might be that, that does for Putin.

Putin only has to fold out for a matter of weeks now till trump is inaugurated.

This is one of the many (!) reasons why we won’t be seeing nukes flying towards us. One trumps in office, putin will likely be given (most of) the concessions he wants.

Mind you, Putin will have to contend with a very angry, technologically innovative country on his border… I suspect Ukraine may well give Russia a taste of it’s own hybrid warfare for decades to come. Things going bang (including top political and military leaders) with just enough plausible deniability to stay under the radar.

I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it’s own nukes too and who can blame them?

and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.

and if they don’t?   Will we all shit ourselves and wonder what to do or do we fire back and just call it a day?

I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.

it annoys me that I didn’t vote for Nuclear annialation, yet the little UK always has to follow the US.  We are a tiny little power, why do we always choose to be involved in these things, why not someone else take the US partnership ahead, why us?

I doubt it, Putin is just the same as Trump, all mouth and no trousers.

Europe has been very carefull so far, and that is a massive mistake…

I think it’s well overdue we start hitting the Russians with x10 more… ++++ them.

For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.

All of them? They have such numbers that it would be disastrous even with a very high failure rate.

I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it’s own nukes too and who can blame them?

They’ve said NATO or nukes, and that they’d prefer NATO.

We are a tiny little power, why do we always choose to be involved in these things, why not someone else take the US partnership ahead, why us?

Because someone has to, and it’s looking likely it won’t be Trump. If the US is going to abandon Ukraine then other countries who can do so have a moral obligation to get involved.

After the three big powers the UK remains one of the strongest militaries in the world, albeit nowhere near where we were a hundred years ago. Who is more powerful/better able to stand up to Russia? India won’t. It’s us, the French and maybe the Germans. Poland and the Baltics are doing more than almost anyone proportionally to the size of their economies but they are still small players.

Kryton, I type the following because I truly believe it to be the case. You are a decent guy and i know current events are playing on your mind a lot. I hope my and other posters comments reassure you as they are, mostly, in alignment.

and if they don’t? Will we all shit ourselves and wonder what to do or do we fire back and just call it a day?

No way will any Western country assume that russian nukes won’t work. It would be an incredibly dangerous assumption. It only takes one to work and the whole world we know will have changed in an instant and to be clear I bet many more than one will work just fine. So allowing the use of ATCMS/ Storm Shadows will have had some of the best strategic minds on the  planet involved in it’s planning.

I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.

Storm shadow has already been used on Russian soil.

They were used in 2023 in Crimea, a land that Putin has officially designated as Russian soil. Putin’s response? He carried on murdering civilians in Ukraine, just as he had before the storm shadows hit.

No nukes are going to fly in this conflict, Putin has no wish to die, remember his hilariously socially distanced table during Covid?

Putin got all his Christmas presents early with Trumps win. No way is he doing to consign Russia to bring an irradiated wasteland with a compliant Trump only weeks away from power.

Longer term its China that keeps me awake at night but I’ll worry about that if and when the time comes. Lol

It’s a mafia family with nukes and it’s going to have one hell of an economic hangover after the war is over. Ironically, it might be that, that does for Putin.

It’s a fat, out of shape, drug dealer with a roided up XL Bully.

Poland and the Baltics are doing more than almost anyone proportionally to the size of their economies but they are still small players.

They are a bit closer to the ever expanding Russian border so I’m not supprised they are getting a bit twitchy.

The EU and the UK needs to step up and hit Russia hard, and fast,  with weapons and with sanctions.

It’s lovely that Biden has authorised some new missiles, but we all know that Trump will put a stop to that, just as soon as he’s pardoned himself for the rape and fraud, as even dictators have priorities.

bikesandboots
They’ve said NATO or nukes, and that they’d prefer NATO.

Very true but if Trump effectively forces Ukraine to give up the aspiration of ever joining NATO, which lets face it, is more then likely, I can imagine them seeking other means to keep a murderous neighbour at bay.

No way will any Western country assume that russian nukes won’t work.

This. The way this threat will be assessed is the same way at an operational task/mission level we would assess an enemy units capability; if they have a piece of kit/capability we assume it is functional, effective and at what likely point/threshold would they employ it? This would shape our initial plan, actions-on its use (most likely both) and what we could do to mitigate the risk or respond to it.

I can’t go into chapter and verse because it would derail the thread, but with what I know from my service and as succinct as possible, I can say with utter certainty that those who work in that space will be taking it very **** seriously indeed and will not be playing fast and loose with anyone’s lives, regardless of what politicians may be saying or doing.

Regardless of how some posters on STW like to denigrate the military/security services it is chock full of very committed and dedicated professionals who give many **** about protecting this nation and that of its allies and will not want to contribute to an escalation.

Ukraine should join the EU…

So should the UK, for that matter.

I bet countries will be thinking carefully about using foreign technology in their weapons in future:

The missile relies on classified American-owned cartographic data, using Terrain Contour Matching or TERCOM, to guide the missile to the target. This gives the American government veto of any sales to foreign countries under ITAR. In 2018 the French government tried to bypass this by creating a “ITAR-free” version of the missile for sale to Egypt that didn’t use TERCOM. The missiles would have relied solely on GPS and inertial navigation systems to get to the target. Making the missile more vulnerable to Electronic Warfare. An issue in Ukraine where Russian jams GPS signals, so American approval is necessary for the missiles to operate to peak performance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

It’s a good job I’m not in charge, I’d have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.

mattyfez
Full Member
It’s a good job I’m not in charge, I’d have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.

The start of the Grand Tour! 😉

(If you know, you know.)

Joking aside, I think we should encourage Poland and Lituania to annexe Kallingrad.

I’d also like to know what the chuff Sweden and Finland are doing, given that Stockholm and Helsinki are in close proximity.

Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.

Joking aside, I think we should encourage Poland and Lituania to annexe Kallingrad.

Rather than to encourage the Polish and Lithuanian to fight in Ukraine, the British government should send the British forces to fight the war instead.

It’s a good job I’m not in charge, I’d have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.

You do know those are not Middle East cities, don’t you?

I’d also like to know what the chuff Sweden and Finland are doing, given that Stockholm and Helsinki are in close proximity.

Coz they know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever.  In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.

For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.

The whole rationale of deterrence is not being entirely sure what the opposition will do. We don’t know what condition Russia’s missiles and warheads are in, there may be a fairly high failure rate, but the assumption has to be that a considerable number will work. However, for Russia, attempting to use nuclear weapons destroys their deterrent effect. If they work, NATO will annihilate Russia in a counter-strike, Putin knows that, threats against NATO are a bluff to get attention. The other concern for Russia is that if they try to launch a limited strike (for example against Ukraine rather than NATO) and the missiles and warheads malfunction, then their deterrent value is diminished.

The key thing with nuclear weapons is they are much more useful if you don’t use them than if you do. The Russians know this, that’s why they’ve never used them.

I was going to post that the whole point of nuclear weapons is not to use them, but thols2 put it way better!

Coz they know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever. In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.

Finland is a very sore point for Russia. The Finns have history of beating Russia and the Russians are unhappy at losing a bit of their Empire. It’s the same resentment often displayed by the English towards Ireland, India, etc etc

resentment often displayed by the English towards Ireland, India, etc etc

I was with you about Russo-Finnish history, but I’m struggling with that tbh. Historically, perhaps, but these days? “Often”? “The English” generally, or a specific group? No one I know harbours those feeling towards Ireland or India, most people barely give those places any thought whatsoever unless they have family connections or are visiting on holiday. The idea that most of the “English” are still bitter would be colonialists seems to be a bit daft to me. Maybe a handful, snoozing in the house of lords, but not the rest of us!

chewkw
Free Member
Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.

Or… To give Ukraine a better hand to play when trump forces them to concede territory… which will lead to a simmering resentment in Ukraine for generations to come, totally understandable too. We’ll end up with another Korean DMZ always on the point of boiling over.

Well done Trump.

Coz they (Sweden, Finland) know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever. In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.

Best we let them know that they don’t need to be in NATO then or that the cyber attacks and under sea cable cutting is pure coincidence. 😉

I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.

A nuke is a nuke and if Russia goes down that path there really is no return from being a nuclear pariah state like N.Korea and to a lesser extent Iran. International sanctions will be immense and trade non-existent, including the legal sale of cheap O&G. China knows this and has warned President Putin off publicly, but the reality is that he knows it too.

The current lifting of restrictions on ATACMS, SCALP-EG, Storm Shadow and the supply of anti-personnel mines are not strategic game-changers. We don’t know the details of restrictions on their use, but they’re not going to be “do what you like”. Ukraine will have to dot every legal i and cross the Ts within those restrictions as well.

Their use will promote morale and some excitement in Ukraine, a bit like ^^ 🙂 . ATACMS have been telegraphed for months and although there are some 245 potential targets within 300km, most Russian aircraft have been moved out of reach

This is similar to pronouncements about Sweden and Finland joining NATO, HiMARS, F16, Abrams, Challenger and Leopard tanks, DPICMs, etc. It’s not hugely different to Ukraine already having the ability to strike targets inside Russia in self-defence with US MLRS (HiMARS, etc.), they just reach a bit further but there are fewer of them.

Russia is beating their reflexive control drum, but it’s been heard before

Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.

See my post above

To give Ukraine a better hand to play when trump forces them to concede territory… which will lead to a simmering resentment in Ukraine for generations to come, totally understandable too. We’ll end up with another Korean DMZ always on the point of boiling over.

Well done Trump.

Nobody knows what he’s likely to do. He’s just as likely to sell Ukraine weapons and tell them to get on with it, because that increases trade and industrial output

We don’t know what condition Russia’s missiles and warheads are in, there may be a fairly high failure rate,

Like ours

Well, that’s the first ICBM used in anger. Looks like the IC part was forgotten about and the warhead removed, but Vlad decided to use the big toys against Dnipro this morning.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt

I can imagine that a lot of people were quite worried when they saw that lighting up.

So there we have it, “the appropriate response”… an ICBM launched… With no payload or a conventional one. AKA a big missile with long range.

He’s changed the constitution so he could have fired a nuke… But didn’t.

Same old, same old.

On a more serious note, we have chewkw incoming in T minus 10….9… 😉

I find it funny that all the European newspapers are pointing out that the storm shadow missile was made in the UK.

“It was them Miss, they did it !”

I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor

If Putin was going to use nukes, he would have done so long ago, and he would have used them well away from Russia. Tactical nukes are inherently extremely dirty and the fallout from using one in the Donbas would mean that the territory that Russia says is part of Russia would be contaminated by fallout (and so would the western part of Russia if the wind was blowing that way). Using them as battlefield weapons would really only make sense if Russia was retreating and wanted to render the territory that Ukraine captured uninhabitable.

Firing one at Ukrainian cities nearer the Polish border would result in fallout in NATO countries. Russia seems to have decided against that right from the beginning. If they were going to nuke Kyiv, they would have done so when they realized their invasion had failed.

From the BBC:

The regional head of Dnipro says that two victims were injured following a missile launch by Russia on the Dnipro area this morning.

A 57-year-old man was treated for his injuries on the scene and a 42-year-old woman has been taken to hospital, Serhy Lysak writes on Telegram.

A rehab centre for people with disabilities was damaged in the attack, but there are no reported injuries there. In addition, nine garages are also reported damaged, and an “industrial enterprise”, Lysak adds.

Two other people were injured and are currently in hospital after strikes on Kryvyi Rih, west of Dnipro. An administrative building was destroyed and two residential buildings were damaged, according to Lysak.

Let’s hope that they stop there. They’ve rattled their sabres, they can claim a great victory to the Russians who believe in this.

I do find the certainty everyone has around trump interesting, I’m really not sure what he will do.  My guess is similar to above – he will continue to supply ukraine but at a huge expensive.  So you could end up with half of ukraine conquered militarily by Russia and half economically by the US….

Re ICBMs is there anything that can stop those?  Can they be intercepted by the kit ukraine has?

 is Russia toothless?

It depends. They still have vast vast amounts of military equipment and soldiers, more than most other nations. The paradox is that their strategic and tactical plans have spectacularly failed to overcome a broadly inferior (but much more motivated) opposing  conventional armed forces. Not only are their doctrine suspect, but their weaponry have been shown to be clearly inferior and vulnerable to most anything that the west/NATO can deploy. But – Any long term war/campaign is largely one of logistics and finance. In the end those are the determining factors rather than individual battlefield weaponry or tactics.

The trouble with that assessment is that it is now, more than ever, its vitally important that the countries that largely rely on ex-soviet/Russian military hardware (China/North Korea for example) to try show that’s not the case, and it’s just been bad management of the campaign so far that’s the cause of all the woes. I can see why it’s in their interests to prop-up the Russian campaigning efforts.

At the same time however, China, especially, cannot afford to be in a position where it’s own military is also regarded as not as effective by comparison to anything that the US can deploy. – Hence the Chinese authorities allowance and probably encouragement on the recent scathing attacks of the SU-57 on social media in comparison to its own projects in that area.

Re ICBMs is there anything that can stop those?  Can they be intercepted by the kit ukraine has?

No, Patriot isn’t designed to intercept ICBMs. There are some weapons in the US that can – In theory, such as the THAAD system, and in practice – The US Navy’s Aegis SM3 which has been able to intercept ICBMs.

Just linking this 8 year old video, seems like a good reminder of the possible scale of wars :

I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor

I feel fairly sure that Vlad has been told that the first time he uses a nuke one is coming thru his window in 5 mins.

So there we have it, “the appropriate response”… an ICBM launched… With no payload or a conventional one. AKA a big missile with long range.

That’s the long and short (so to speak). Russia has been using short-range ballistic missiles (BM) for a while now, including variants of the Russian Iskander, and N.Korean Hwasong-11 (KN23 and KN25). The missiles all have the capability of a nuclear warhead, but are used with a conventional warhead

Iskander BM (there’s a cruise missile variant too) have been shot down by Ukraine and the Hwasong-11 reportedly wasn’t particularly reliable, failing in flight. The opportunity for N.Korea to test the missiles and Russian expertise will undoubtedly improve them https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-examines-nkorean-missile-debris-amid-fears-moscow-pyongyang-axis-2024-05-07/

EDIT: Ukraine is reporting it was an RS-26 Rubezh ICBM that doesn’t have a conventional warhead option https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/21/7485582/

I’d also like to know what the chuff Sweden and Finland are doing

Probably being thankful that they decided to join NATO, secure in the knowledge now that they are a bit more secure from being attacked by their neighbour.

the possible scale of wars

It’s worth noting that Soviet/Russian battle field tactics and doctrine hasn’t moved on since WW2 ie  “Throw as much tanks and soldiers as you can into the space in the hope of overwhelming your enemy”. The waste of human life is criminal