Ukraine

…long range tank in the Bombay of the mosquito…

Extra fuel tanks would cause problems with the mix 🙂

And I never understood why they didn’t fit a long range tank in the Bombay of the mosquito and turn it into a long range high speed fighter escort.

I thought they sent them on night fighter missions into Germany to hunt down the German night fighters. My guess is that they would be too unwieldy to go one-on-one with a single-engined fighter in daylight.

So the tech savvy Ukraine boffins bolt for example , a cbu87 front end to their new rocket drone

SAAB-Boeing tried this sort of mash up with their Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) in 2023, using existing parts that were sitting in huge numbers in storage.

Unfortunately they’ve been withdrawn from Ukraine for further development, reportedly to harden their EW defences. All of the weapons that pass the prototype stage need to be proved in the field.

Russia says that they’ve been shooting the HRIM-2 down since March (yes, I know 🙂 ), so we’ll see what the production version does and how many can be produced.

There’s little doubt that Ukraine has some excellent engineering brains; Russia put production of its tanks out to Ukraine’s engineers

Also, post the russian visit, I wonder what Modi will come away from Zelenski with

Written piece here, 3 min read: https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-away-from-the-battlefield-the-diplomatic-wrangling-hots-up-with-modi-visit-to-kyiv-237161

Pity the reservists traveling to the front line in Kursk Oblast trying to outrun FPV drones hunting them, the traffic cameras are all still working, and they get a ticket for speeding. If they cover their plates, the police stop them and force them to uncover them.

#mutleysnigger

https://arstechnica.com/culture/2024/08/trying-to-outrun-ukrainian-drones-kursk-traffic-cams-still-issue-speeding-tickets/

It seems that Ukraine has hit more fuel storage /small refineries overnight, with some still burning. Also a fire / explosion at a power plant in Russia, 400km from Ukraine (could just be poor maintenance…).
And lots of reports that as more Russian military arrive in Kursk they are looting shops and homes of their own people.

The president of Finland also calling for more support for Ukraine – saying that Ukraine is causing instability within Russia and this is a Very Good Thing for the west, and could precipitate and end to the war through Russia not being able to function well. (Of course that skips over the fact that what comes after may not be good…)

And an interesting article on the drones Ukraine are building…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6240qepyppo

Unfortunately they have lost one of the precious few F16s already. Sadly the pilot too which they are even shorter of. On Monday, whilst it was engaged in downing Russian cruise missiles. Apparently not due to enemy action.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-f-16-jet-destroyed-crash-monday-wsj-reports-2024-08-29/

Edit to say there are unconfirmed reports it might have been downed by friendly fire from a AFU patriot battery:-(

This will happen, they’re having to learn on the job at breakneck speed with of one the world’s largest militaries acvtively hunting them and them in particular.

Did anyone see the reports that Belarus had shot down a Russian drone?

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/belarusian_jet_shoots_down_russian_drone_in_yelsk_district_for_the_first_time-11676.html

Interesting. It was just passing through, same as loads have done previously. So why now?

Probably thought it was Ukrainian and trigger happy.

The F16 and pilot lost looks like it was friendly fire too.

Edit to say there are unconfirmed reports it might have been downed by friendly fire from a AFU patriot battery:-(

There are a couple of possibilities here, bearing in mind that it’s an unconfirmed report:

1) NATO aircraft and NATO AD systems talk to each other to avoid this. Either it wasn’t Patriot or there was a system failure

2) It could have been a soviet system used by Ukraine. In the case of an unverified soviet system the pilot should have been warned to evade while counter-measures were used. Again, a possible system failure

3) The pilot could have flown into debris or an active missile being used in the attack

Whichever, a terrible tragedy that happens in war

EDIT to add a more in-depth link that is far better than my effort 🙂 https://weapons.substack.com/p/ukraine-loses-its-first-f-16

Interesting. It was just passing through, same as loads have done previously. So why now?

President Lukashenko has been broadcasting some cryptic stuff in the last couple of days. He doesn’t want war as discussed ^^ and he won’t be around for eternity.

Is he ill? Is his reluctance going to cost him his life? Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?

I’ll find some links and edit this post if I can manage the 15 minutes deadline

Missed it…

Last Saturday offered insight into Lukashenko’s growing paranoia. When asked by a Gorodishche resident about his decision to run for a seventh term as president, Lukashenko responded, “You should get used to the fact that the president will be different. I’m not saying that I’m going to leave you tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and so on. But everything happens in life. You should get used to the fact that I won’t be around forever, just like all of you.”

That is not dictator-talk. In a world of survive or perish, Lukashenko may have just foreshadowed his own transition out of power, which will surely include conditions for his own golden parachute. Unlike his Ukrainian counterpart, flight is his most likely course of action to avoid a fate like that of Benito Mussolini or Nicolae Ceausescu.

Link to ^^ https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4838862-belarus-lukashenko-russia-ukraine/

Lukashenko has stated that they won’t invade, colour me unsurprised 😉

could be a bluff of course- I doubt it though

Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?

As one of the tinniest and pottiest of Tin Pot dictators I’d bet he’s had that sucker loaded, fueled and sat in a hanger ready to roll for good time now, esp after he only clung on by the skin of his teeth in 2021.

Dubai here we come.

could be a bluff of course- I doubt it though

It does seem unlikely. If he was going to help out he would have done so when it was still a three day victory parade.

Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?

I suspect after Prigozhin it may be downgraded to a bus first…I would expect that ol’ Pooters has a firm eye on him doing a runner, and will have made it clear it is not acceptable…
If he ran, who replaces? Would Russia try to take over more formally – and would they have any resources to strong arm Belarus as an invading force?

Probably thought it was Ukrainian and trigger happy.

The report I read said the pilot followed it for 15 mins before shooting it down.

If he ran, who replaces? Would Russia try to take over more formally…

There’s a real President exiled in Lithuania, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, along with the country’s Coordination Council Presidium.

Lukashenko arrested the opposition candidate (her husband) before the elections, but allowed her to stand in because he didn’t believe that a woman could win

I suspect after Prigozhin it may be downgraded to a bus first…

Single decker for extra safety, wouldn’t want to fall out of an upstairs window in a freak accident when going over a speed bump

Agreed, there’s a whole shadow government ready to go the minute Lukashenko’s goons are out of the way.

They even have a degree of democratic legitimacy as Tsikhanouskaya is widely believed to have won the 2020 election.

Poland and the Baltics will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of  re-orientating Belarus towards ‘the West’ and I’m sure they’ll be doing things behind the scenes to put a few thumbs on the scale.

It’s almost worth somebody quietly offering Lukashenko safe passage with his loot just to get him gone peacefully and quickly, hugely unsatisfying though that would be considering what he’s inflicted upon his own people. but..  if it helps screw Putin harder and faster… bigger fish and all that.

if it helps screw Putin harder and faster… bigger fish and all that.

Yesterdays comments from Finnish president were around Ukraine doing a great job of instability and uncertainty inside Russia now – and suggestions that all the neighbours should encourage that, as a weakened Russian leadership is a Good Thing for the rest of the world.

Could it be that this war can be ended by causing instability and breakdown of Russia? Would Russia break into separate states / civil war? I know a lot of countries they have significant influence over would happily seek a new allegiance given half a chance…

It’s certainly one of the most likely outcomes and one of the better ones for Ukraine and ‘The West’ in general although the disintegration of the Russian federation would obviously bring up it’s own problems in due course.

It’s also one of the few proven ways to get Russia to stop it and bugger off, see Afghanistan for details.

and turn it into a long range high speed fighter escort.

They tested it, and it just wasn’t very good. Too many blind spots for air to air with Luftwaffe single engine fighters, and just not manoeuvrable or robust enough, and with long range tanks, the P51 was more than capable. The Hornet was supposed to be the “fighter” mossie, but took too long to develop.

Or why on landing craft the front door didn’t have a 90 degree return on it

Can’t use them for small vehicles if you do that, and as brutal as it seems, for the loss of life that actually occurred on all the amphibious landings, the cost of making landing craft more complex wouldn’t have been worth the extra time, money and material it’d cost to make them.

Edit to say there are unconfirmed reports it might have been downed by friendly fire from a AFU patriot battery

I wonder if the Patriot was on ‘auto’. Just sits there and scans the sky, it interprets everything it sees as hostile and aims for the nearest target. There were some issues in the Gulf War when patriot batteries targeted a whole bunch of F-16 and A10’s returning to King Fahd airport

I wonder if the Patriot was on ‘auto’. Just sits there and scans the sky, it interprets everything it sees as hostile and aims for the nearest target.

That would be pretty reckless. The AFU are pretty switched on and tech savvy, I can’t imagine them doing that in an environment with plenty of friendly aircraft. All modern air defence weapons and military aircraft are fitted with IFF systems to prevent this.  It’s not perfect  of course and mistakes do happen. It’s more of an issue in conflicts like the Gulf war where you have a coalition of many air and ground forces and the need to share, protect and coordinate the transponder codes across different nationalities. It should be much less of an issue within a single nation’s forces, even if they are operating Western and ex Soviet kit.

Rather than the battery IFF being switched off, I think it’s more likely that the aircraft IFF transponder was either off or faulty.  A valid IFF response to a battery interrogation proves it’s a friendly aircraft but the absence of one does not prove it’s an enemy aircraft.  That’s when the battery commander has to use his judgement and make a difficult decision.

Reuters is insinuating a link between the F16 crash and the dismissal of Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk.

It’s way too early for that link to be made and I’d suggest that the dismissal has been in the pipeline for a while https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-dismisses-ukraines-air-force-commander-2024-08-30/

President Zelenskyy is also reported to be in the process of dismissing the head of Ukraine’s power grid operator Ukrenergo, Vadym Kudrytskyi https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-power-grid-operator-head-be-dismissed-media-reports-2024-08-30/

Both men have responsibility for protecting the power grid, which I think is a more compelling reason for their dismissal

For those with a geo-political bent, there’s plenty to get stuck into at ISW this morning:

-European Union (EU) member state officials continue to express divergent views about Ukraine’s ability to use European-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
-Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces made marginal gains in Kursk Oblast on August 30.
-Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
-Venezuela extradited Colombian citizens who fought as members of the Ukrainian military to Russia, demonstrating growing Russian-Venezuelan cooperation and Venezuelan support for Russia’s war.
-Hungary and Russia continue to deepen their bilateral cooperation.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk as Ukrainian Air Force Commander on August 30.
-Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
-French outlet Le Monde reported on August 30 that about 100 mercenaries from the Russian “Bear Brigade” private military company departed Burkina Faso to join Russian forces fighting in Kursk Oblast.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2024

The final item is one of several over a couple of weeks about different Russian forces across Africa flying troops home to fight. Resources are getting tight, which links into the domestic discontent also reported in the same article

A large attack by Ukraine on Russian fuel depots and energy centres. It seems they are after the fuel to power the war machine rather than heating for civilians, but seems very risky? Or is it creating awareness of the war back in Russia?

Of course Russia’s missiles just aimed at residential blocks, sports facilities, playgrounds and similar as much as energy supplies for civilians.

A large attack by Ukraine on Russian fuel depots and energy centres. It seems they are after the fuel to power the war machine rather than heating for civilians, but seems very risky? Or is it creating awareness of the war back in Russia?

I think that you’ve answered your own questions:

Damage Russian logistics; fuel is arguably their most basic need because it powers transport, offence and defence

Move Russian materiel and troops from the frontline to protect logistics. They have to move troops rather than mobilise greater numbers because of public attitudes reflected in polling. Shifting air defence to Moscow would help in freeing Ukraine’s fighter/bomber aircraft

Taking recent polls and pressuring the Kremlin further by attacking around Moscow and the adjacent Tver region https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/1/7472902/. “Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.” ^^ If state-owned agencies acknowledge discontent then it’s undeniable.

Levada Center’s polling data indicates that the Kremlin’s refusal to fully transition Russian society at large to a wartime footing and the Kremlin’s ongoing domestic information operations aimed at normalizing the war to Russian society have mitigated against domestic war weariness thus far and that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has not changed this mindset. The fact that Russian society in general appears to not be experiencing war fatigue likely grants the Kremlin flexibility in how it strategizes to wage a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2024

Looks like the Russian Pokrovsk offensive has stalled for the time being, possibly showing that the Kursk offensive has had a positive effect.

We must also be near the wet and muddy season, closely followed by winter. I was reading a piece (will go find it again) saying that the Russians are poorer at logistics and the gains they have made in some areas leave them with difficult logistics and valley bottom/muddy. The Ukrainians have defended and set up on drier ground over looking the muddy logistics routes…

Whilst I’m very happy to bang the ‘rah-rah go Ukraine’ drum on here, It should be noted that Russia doesn’t need to take Pokrovsk, just get its artillery close enough so that it can safely batter the rail junction there into dust.

Fully taking the actual town would be a nice little propaganda coup for the Kremlin so I’m sure they’ll try but the main objective of screwing up Ukraine’s rail logistics does not require it.

It also shoud be noted that estimates for recent Russian Casualties in the Pokrovsk salient are now well into 5 figures, a year or so ago I commented on here that one way Ukraine wins this is by fighting another 10-20 Bakhmut’s where they just bleed Russian attackers white, well they just put another brick in that wall.

Pokrovsk may be more strategically significant than Bakhmut but here Ukraine is killing huge numbers of contract soldiers rather than Wagner convicts, that is going to only ratchet up discontent back home.

I’d be surprised if taking the rail infrastructure at Pokrovsk is considered significant by either Russia or Ukraine. Adding the city to the list of Russian gains is a media bonus because of its size as compared to some of the “cities” that Russia has gained recently

The significance is in disrupting Ukraine’s road logistics to both the NE and S of Pokrovsk and the resultant comparatively easy run for Russia W beyond the Donbas regional border

Ukraine recognised that additional forces wouldn’t achieve much more than slowing the Russian advance. This slow down would have allowed Ukraine more time to build defences W of Pokrovsk and would have allowed them to attrite Russian forces more.

The gamble was that using those same additional forces in Kursk would take the pressure off Pokrovsk by diverting Russian forces for several weeks, but Russia didn’t take the bait.

Kursk might still turn into a strategic advantage for Ukraine by changing things significantly (Pokrovsk, on the other hand, isn’t strategic). If Ukraine has shown that Russia’s red-lines are just hot air and the US allows western long-range weapons to be used then that will be a significant game-changer

Pokrovsk, on the other hand, isn’t strategic

Not in terms of Russia taking it will end the war but it certainly will great assist Russia’s further advances, Iwould certainly argue that it’s fall would be  significant.

Perun has his usual measured take on it.

Strategic or otherwise, both sides think it’s important.

I’ve not seen any reports on rasputitsa yet?

^ see my comment above. I can’t find the article I read from someone like Institute of War who suggested that Ukraine were positioning to make very good use of it through being on dry land above wet Russian supply routes, across rivers etc.

I thought this was interesting. An interview by a Kyiv independent reporter with a Russian POW captured in the Kursk oblast incursion.  They are at pains to explain at the beginning of the interview that it was voluntary and compliant with international law. He’s an older contract soldier, not a conscript.  He gives a good insight into his motivations, training, quality of command and his perceptions of Putin, the war and Ukraine prior to his capture.

It’s sad and depressing. You can see the influence of Putin’s propaganda on some of his views, but you can also see scepticism, regret and remorse.  He comes across as an intelligent man who has ended up in a shit situation due to being misled and circumstances mostly beyond his control.  It’s little insights like this into the human impact on Russians, as well as Ukrainians that underline what a thunder **** Putler is.

It’s sad and depressing. You can see the influence of Putin’s propaganda on some of his views, but you can also see scepticism, regret and remorse.  He comes across as an intelligent man who has ended up in a shit situation due to circumstances mostly beyond his control.

They are all human (both sides).

If we look back to history we have plenty of evidence that human beings are always fighting with each others for whatever reasons.

The last few hundred years saw the expansion of Western empires colonising less technologically advance nations, creating lasting conflicts in their path.  But empires do not last forever and as in history empires collapse after a period of time, but it is the transitional period that is usually considered as the difficult with death and destruction before it can stabilise again.

There is no right or wrong in a conflict, and the victors will always dictate the narrative.