Ukraine

From my armchair, i can see a strategy of attacking / invading across the border, causing massive local disruption then retreating before the might of the russian army is brought to bear, only to repeat the process in a different russian bordering region a few weeks later.

It’s a sound strategy. It will bring a rise in readiness and alert to Russian units, that in and of itself creates tension which in turn impacts morale, and this can impact discipline, which then impacts operational effectiveness.

The at impact then increases the likelihood of success for the attacker, which then further feeds the above and thus creates a cycle which takes effective leadership to break. In professional militaries you will see high levels of activity to maintain discipline going on, equipment maintenance, SOP & TTP rehearsal; very structured and deliberate routines, all to keep the mind sharp and focussed on the tasks all against the backdrop of an expectation of high standards of professionalism and conduct.

All of this in a force with a high proportion of pressed-men that uses brutality to maintain discipline stacks the odds well into the favour of UKR.

Surely thats largely on Angela Merkels shoulders. German govt could have acted in 2014 after the Crimea and Donbass invasions but chose not to. To be fair the Schultz gov’t has totally got with the programme now.

It was systemic though.  The whole west’s idea seemed to be to bring Russia closer for better cooperation etc.  I think the collective international community should have done more at that point in 2014 and realised the writing was on the wall about the type of state they were dealing with.  Certainly not going to Sochi…

One of the reasons for Ukraine failing to launch a successful summer offensive last year was the lack of experience of it’s more senior battlefield commanders in handling co-ordinated manoeuvre warfare in large scale formations.

It won’t have helped that Jack Teixeria leaked their preparations on Discord before the June offensive. Ukraine should have shelved it then https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/04/13/ukraine-war-plans-leak-discord-server/

This is why they kept OpSec so tight on the Kursk offensive and didn’t tell anyone beforehand

Seems the Ukranians are now turning back west / coming over a wider border area.

I can’t see any evidence that Ukrainians are turning back. I wonder if it’s an escorted convoy of PoWs, “hundreds” have been taken, one report suggests 2000 so far.

The Geneva Convention says that PoWs should be evacuated ASAP

The Geneva convention says alot of things.
Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be a Cyrillic translation readily available.

thousands of pows is going to cause ukraine another big logistics headache. surely it would be better for them to let them flee rather than capture them

thousands of pows is going to cause ukraine another big logistics headache. surely it would be better for them to let them flee rather than capture them

There’s a few articles on this.

Firstly they are well set up for big numbers, they have international inspections etc

Then they have a chance for diplomacy through love. I’m sure it’s not easy being imprisoned, but new clothes, hot meals, nice guards, no beatings etc has a huge psychological benefit. Soft diplomacy.

Lastly, let them go and tomorrow morning they are all attacking you again…

thousands of pows is going to cause ukraine another big logistics headache. surely it would be better for them to let them flee rather than capture them

Haven’t you seen Saving Private Ryan?

Also PoW exchanges have been going on since the beginning of the war, the more you take the more of your own guys you can get back. Sadly Russians haven’t been treating their returning PoWs nicely either to encourage others to fight on when all is lost rather than get caught.

Ukraine reported to have dropped bridges the Russians need to resupply their forces in Kursk, suggests they are planning on making Russia fight if they want it back.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1824447266884567503

its the buffer zone Putin wanted.

apparently, a large missle attack on the crimeai bridge was thwarted by russian aa yesterday too.

apparently, a large missle attack on the crimeai bridge was thwarted by russian aa yesterday too.

Dammit.

apparently, a large missle attack on the crimeai bridge was thwarted by russian aa yesterday too.

Maybe, maybe not… Ukraine has been needling the Crimea bridge since the start without intentionally trying to destroy it with any sort of real forcefullness.

I’m no miltary strategist, but if you can keep the enemy occupied with various little pokes in random places, it can be used to great advantage/leverage… it’s classic Sun-Tzu.

At least, that’s what I hope is hapening.

Kursk must be of particular significance to Russia (if not Putin)….. the Battle of Kursk 1943…   supposed to be the biggest tank battle in history…… although it was a Russian victory the casualties were : Germans 200,000    Russian 800,000 (and these are thought to under estimate the real numbers).

Kursk must be of particular significance to Russia (if not Putin)….. the Battle of Kursk 1943…   supposed to be the biggest tank battle in history…… although it was a Russian victory the casualties were : Germans 200,000    Russian 800,000 (and these are thought to under estimate the real numbers).

Indeed.  The symbolism of German panzers once again rolling into Kursk to fight the Russians is not lost on them.  Putin will be be very well aware of it

Putin will be be very well aware of it

Good.

As will so many others in Russia. Thier words and actions hollow, thier lack of resources obvious.

Good.. a bit of a fight on thier own borders might make the ‘russians’ think twice when thier own people are getting killed on thier own ground…. it sends a strong message.

Ukraine is setting up humanitarian aid for Russians abandoned by their state https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-humanitarian-aid-occupied-part-russias-kursk-region-2024-08-16/

Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be a Cyrillic translation readily available

🙂 It’s an official script of the EU. The people of Ukraine (amongst others) might be surprised as well 🙂

Maybe, maybe not… Ukraine has been needling the Crimea bridge since the start without intentionally trying to destroy it with any sort of real forcefullness.

+1

Ukraine doesn’t have that capability (they’ll now prove me wrong 🙂 )

Germany estimated that at least 10 Taurus cruise missiles would be needed and they aren’t supplying them.

The US is considering supplying AGM158A JASSM air-to-surface cruise missiles for Ukraine’s F16 fleet, but it doesn’t have the necessary warhead

Made me chuckle.

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1824566666434613636https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1824566666434613636

This afternoon Ukraine should hold a “free and fair” referendum on whether Kursk wants to be Ukrainian.

Kursk and the name is connected to the first six months of putins presidency and his embarrasing mis-management of the tragedy. Not only this incursion is embarrassing but it might rake up old memories by association.

From Wiki

Russian President Vladimir Putin, though immediately informed of the tragedy, was told by the navy that they had the situation under control and that rescue was imminent. He waited for five days before ending his holiday at a presidential resort in Sochi on the Black Sea. Putin was only four months into his tenure as president, and the public and media were extremely critical of his decision to remain at a seaside resort. His highly favourable ratings dropped dramatically.[20] The president’s response appeared callous and the government’s actions looked incompetent.[21] A year later he said, “I probably should have returned to Moscow, but nothing would have changed. I had the same level of communication both in Sochi and in Moscow, but from a PR point of view I could have demonstrated some special eagerness to return.”[22]

This map suggests that Ukraine are aiming to trap Russian forces south of the river. I have no military experience, but setting up a defensive line along the river seems like an obvious thing to do to make things difficult for Russia to retake their lost territory.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1825357258810695699

I have no military experience, but setting up a defensive line along the river seems like an obvious thing to do to make things difficult for Russia to retake their lost territory.

Nail. Head. If you look at the map another way then they’re protecting their left flank back to the international border by using the river. Russia has a long, difficult trek to get on Ukraine’s left and they’ll need logistics, which without bridges…

If there are more Russian PoWs in that area then it’s a bonus for future trade

A very interesting, though slightly pessimistic assessment of the likely Russian response to the Kursk incursion. From Anders Puck Nielsen, one of the more credible and less hyperbolic analysts.

I have no military experience, but setting up a defensive line along the river seems like an obvious thing to do to make things difficult for Russia to retake their lost territory.

It is. Anything that involves your enemy crossing an obstacle or vulnerable point (vernacular dependant on your era) works to your advantage, it slows momentum, drains resources and removes, as in this case the opportunity to use ground as cover.

It also allows you to range and fix coordinates for arty/mortars/etc with greater ease and effect as you have created a fixed front which removes the ability flank, there’s onlzy one way and it’s across.

sober listening that vid

poor sods russian conscripts. ukraine is going to be going for maximum casulties. that convoy on the first day was the start.

Or parachute in behind the fixed defense line . Tricky if your opponent has Abraham or Challenger tanks knocking about.

Or parachute in behind the fixed defense line . Tricky if your opponent has Abraham or Challenger tanks knocking about.

There’s a reason mass para drops haven’t been a thing in modern warfare, they’re **** disastrous. In this conflict slow moving planes packed full of troops at a suitable height to drop meat-bombs by static line is going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Now if we’re talking smaller, more specialised teams with advanced jumping capability then that’s a difference conversation.

Halo insertion with heavily armed platoon strength to cause enough disruption while the main forces cross the river. Probably be a suicide mission though.
And for nowt really , to relieve a village or 2 . hardly a major strategic strong point

Ukraine packed a strong air defence element for their Tour of Russia.

And for nowt really , to relieve a village or 2 . hardly a major strategic strong point

+1 Although I have no doubt that some very important noses are out of joint

I see that there have been some quite significant strikes in the last day or so. Airfield with a few dozen front line fighter bombers, a RoRo ferry the military use, a train full of fuel to the front line etc….

https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/1826643666934661462

Considering Ukraine have just marched boldly over the biggest, fattest red line imaginable and the Russian nukes have stayed in their silos, I suspect that the biggest long term effect of Ukraine’s little Kursk Road trip may be Western Allies taking the conditions off their aid now Putin’s bluff has been called in such spectacular fashion.

Russia having safe haven within its own borders was a huge strategic advantage for them on so many levels, losing it genuinely could alter the course of this war.

The other thing is all those barely trained conscripts from Moscow and St Petersburg who were put somewhere ‘safe’and are now being thrown infront of some of Ukraine’s most battle hardened units.

As far as the Russian public are concerned this was NOT part of the deal.

I see that there have been some quite significant strikes in the last day or so. Airfield with a few dozen front line fighter bombers, a RoRo ferry the military use, a train full of fuel to the front line etc….

Both armies must be close to the point of maximum effort and they won’t be able to sustain that level for much longer.

Russia has just about reached the tipping point where their equipment losses aren’t sustainable, even by raiding museums. Open sources suggest that they are withdrawing troops from Zaporizhia and Crimea to counter Ukraine’s invasion of Russia

Russia has a heavily railway oriented army and doesn’t have the heavy trucks and loading equipment needed to make logistics work well. Target their trains, convoys of little vans and their fuel and Russia will culminate more quickly than Ukraine.

Anecdotally, glide bomb attacks on Ukraine’s positions have reduced dramatically too

Ukraine is spreading sideways into Russia, rather than forwards. This keeps their salient difficult to surround and cut off while keeping Ukraine’s logistic lines short

Also the Russian economy is in poor shape, inflation at 9.1%, interest rates at 19%, the Ruble at 92/$ .

I think the legacy Soviet armour is likely to run dry sometime in 2025.

I was listening to Ben Wallace on R4 about the ‘rules’ of use of foreign arms on Russian soil. He was of the view that the gloves should have been off for a long time – what is the difference between firing a UK Storm Shadow at Crimea, a place Russia considers Russian and currently occupied by Russia, and firing the same missile at the Russian airbase being used to daily launch glide bombs at trenches and missiles at civilians in Ukraine?

He also was of the view that the stocks of the German version of Storm Shadow would be pretty transformative if combined with the change in rules…

It seem such an obvious move – but I am not an expert on the politics of why countries are still refusing, other than a concern Russia would use it as an excuse to attack the supplying country?

I listened to that on the way home last night. All very balanced, I’d have been happy for him to respond to the hypothetical question about them not firing on the Kremlin with, ‘Oh yeah’, they should bomb the shit out of that!’ rather than the red line/rule of war actual answer.

Probably a good job I’m not a (n ex) Secretary of State for Defence.

It’s largely a hypothetical question but are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

I’m not asking if it’s a good idea or even possible, but whether or not there is a rule, unwritten or otherwise, that you don’t do that.

It’s largely a hypothetical question but are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

I’m not asking if it’s a good idea or even possible, but whether or not there is a rule, unwritten or otherwise, that you don’t do that.

Allegedly Russia tried very hard to bump Zelensky off in the early days of the conflict with teams of assassins in Kyiv.  I suspect they might be a bit more circumspect about anything so blatant now. I think though if either side had intelligence that the opposite leader was anywhere near artillery range at the front line they would take advantage and that would probably be ‘legal’ insofar as the laws of armed conflict apply or are even observed.  ISTR Ukraine had a pop at Gerasimov in a targeted strike during a front line visit a year or more ago? More of a risk for Ukraine than Russia as Putin never seems willing to witness first hand the death and destruction he has caused, but Zelensky does visit the troops at the front.  I’m not so sure it would be a wise strategy for Ukraine though, even if they had the opportunity.  There isn’t a queue of benign and competent replacements behind Putin, he’s killed or jailed them all. It would have unforeseen consequences which could be worse than the status quo.  There’s also the argument that his paranoia and repeated sacking and reshuffling of advisers and senior officers is of strategic benefit to Ukraine.