Ukraine

I learned everything I know from Red Alert

In which case you know that Ukraine has cheaper supply lines and can walk all over Russia. Maybe that’s why Putin has an Inf-zerg building up on the border!

Tesla coils?

Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?

Lots of reasons I imagine, although the number is inaccurate and the definition of a “lillypad” used to boost it to sell the book. I really don’t think they are looking to lay siege. Quite the reverse, Russia has challenged freedom of navigation not the US.

The reality of the US in Ukraine is probably close to this, with a likelihood that numbers may swell to speed up any evacuation of US citizens
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220119-russians-pose-threat-to-us-training-mission-in-ukraine

Well its an interesting list of foreign bases per country.

Russia has 13. France has 15, Australia was 2, Turkey has 10, Britain has 16, Canada has 4, Italy has 4, India has 5, and the US was 800.

Hmmmmm, bit of a disparity going on there, but hey, that doesn’t mean to say the US is an aggressive country.

😆 😆

Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.

I am not sure Russia has enough tugboats to tow their navy to Britain.

Putins sabre rattling is all about domestic politics, he needs foreign distractions to make him look strong because he is presiding over a domestic policy disaster. Even imprisoning and killing all his rivals is starting to wear thin.

Unfortunately the idiot Biden has left him a path to make a “minor incursion” so he can sell his strongman image in Russia while the west just impose a few more futile sanctions while buying all the gas they can take.

Sure it wasn’t a deliberate slip. Biden has been at this game for a very long time.

and the US was 800.

Probably 550 of them in Iraq and Afghanistan.

800 averages about 4 per UN member which is why it’s a number designed to illicit a particular response rather than inform on US bases abroad

Unfortunately the idiot Biden has left him a path to make a “minor incursion” so he can sell his strongman image in Russia while the west just impose a few more futile sanctions while buying all the gas they can take.

That might be the NATO calculus, unfortunately Ukrainians paying with their lives to keep Putin in power and western Europe warm with the lights on

Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?

In reality, they don’t. That number will include a bunch of tiny outposts that aren’t really a base in the sense of being a viable stand-alone entity. In countries like South Korea and Japan, there ae multiple bases – naval, airforce, and marine corps. Those bases are there because the governments of those countries want U.S. troops on their soil to deter Russia, China, and North Korea. Many countries are ambivalent about the U.S. but having a defense treaty with the U.S. and some bases is much preferable to being left to deal with Russia or China on their own. Russia and China don’t have bases all over the world because they are not welcome whereas the U.S. is tolerated.

And if you counted Wagner et al I suspect Russian bases would be in the hundreds in Africa alone, not 13 globally 😉

A significant portion of the Ukrainian population have done time fighting and are willing to fight. The joke that was Ukrainian military has changed as has the willingness to fight. Any invasion will see an intolerable number of body bags going back to mother Russia

Ask a Russian about how successful they were during the Winter War with overwhelming odds on their side…

I suspect im not the only one on here or irl that’s getting up each morning and clicking on the news half expecting the breaking story to be that Russia has invaded Ukraine.

Same as it ever was, the little people die to fulfill the ego and power struggles of the rich and powerful.

half expecting the breaking story to be that Russia has invaded Ukraine.

Russia invaded Ukraine several years ago. What you mean is that they escalate the invasion.

^^ You know what I mean.

I have a question: Is it normal for an invading army to gather in their hundreds of thousands at the border of the intended invadee and then just sit there, waiting? It’s been weeks!! It’s not exactly preserving the element of surprise…

They never would have had the element of surprise anyway. Apparently, part of it is waiting for the ground to freeze so that vehicles don’t get bogged down in mud. They also need time to ship tens of thousands of tonnes of equipment around. On top of that, Putin has attempted to use this as a negotiating tactic to force concessions out of NATO. To do that, he had to openly make preparations for a large-scale invasion so that NATO knew he had something to exchange. The element of surprise is whether they will escalate, where, and to what degree.

I think it’s an issue of intimidation tactics and a mild, therefore muddy, winter preventing a swift invasion.

Desert Storm was hardly a surprise attack. As above, the obvious build up was a tactic to try to get the other side to back down

I have a question: Is it normal for an invading army to gather in their hundreds of thousands at the border of the intended invadee and then just sit there, waiting? It’s been weeks!! It’s not exactly preserving the element of surprise…

The problem is massing troops on a border looks pretty much the same whether it’s being done to force a conciliation on something or as a prelude to invasion (e.g. Iraq and the Kuwait invasion).

If Russia does invade it will likely be a combination of Spetsnaz airborne/seaborne (these guys aren’t the ones massing at the border – in fact many are reportedly in Ukraine already as Ukraine doesn’t have control of the much of the Donbas). The troops massing on the border are the expendable (to Putin) conscripts who will grind their way in to reinforce the Spetsnaz as the second wave. If Putin’s intent is a full-scale invasion then the third wave will be reinforcements (better trained and equipped than the second wave) going in through Belarus, Crimea and Russia. Or I could just be talking bollocks :p

…China don’t have bases all over the world because they are not welcome whereas the U.S. is tolerated.

The CCP just buy influence and power with investment trade deals etc around the world which is probably a lot easier.

The CCP just buy influence and power with investment trade deals etc around the world which is probably a lot easier.

The U.S. has been doing that for decades too. Their global power isn’t purely military force, most of it is economic.

One sure way for Russia to dissuade its immediate neighbors from joining NATO would be for Russia to cease threatening, attacking, and occupying its immediate neighbors.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) January 21, 2022

I’m guessing there will be a move by Russia to “secure” Donbas. Putin will try and sell this as protecting the Russian population and as a way of ending the ongoing conflict in the region. There will also be statements that Russia won’t go any further, limited operation, nothing to see here etc etc.

Alexander Vindman thinks a full-on Russian assault is most likely.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks

Alexander Vindman thinks a full-on Russian assault is most likely.

Was he rubbing his hands with glee at the time ?.

I’ve never really been a viewer of Tucker or Fox news, but at least they’re saying what it is.

Tucker Carlson talks a lot of shit, a lot of the time. I’m not even going to give that Trumpist culture war cock bag a play as his usual barrage of misinformation is not how I want to start the weekend, but does the video paint Democrats/current administration in a very bad ligh?

Actually, what happened to last years $2.7 billion law suit against Fox by Smartmatic, went in November time iirc?

I’m not even going to give that Trumpist culture war cock bag a play as his usual barrage of misinformation is not how I want to start the weekend, but does the video paint Democrats/current administration in a very bad light?

He seems to be talking more about the military war machine. But yes there’s some anti democrat stuff in there (To be expected.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-karen-mcdougal-case-tucker-carlson-2020-9%3famp

Sorry, I should have been less ranty. But just to say Carlson is a massively unreliable and a hopelessly biased “commentator” and it’s definitely not news. It’s how he has so far got away with some of the stuff he says, as it’s “opinion” not “fact”.

I have him about on par with Neil Oliver on vaccines.

The headline from BnDs link

Fox News won a court case by ‘persuasively’ arguing that no ‘reasonable viewer’ takes Tucker Carlson seriously

Tucker Carlson talks a lot of shit, a lot all of the time.

FTFY. It’s his business model. He just says whatever outrageous bullshit keeps his audience riled up. He’s a smart guy and he knows he’s talking shit, but he also knows he can make a lot of money by talking shit.

Honestly, if you want to find some alternative viewpoints on this, go visit Reporters Sans Frontiers, pick a few countries from the top of the list and see what’s on they’re news.

You will still likely end up with a European perspective, but we also tend not to kill many journalists, which has a large part in the ranking. US media can be pretty nuts too, flicking from Fox to CNN is some hell of a jump of viewpoints.

BBC News – Ukraine: US orders families of embassy staff to leave
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60106416

It’s not looking good

“Top German Navy officer Vice Adm. Kay-Achim Schönbach said that the idea that Russia seeks to seize additional territory from Ukraine is “nonsense.”

You would think he would be best placed to make such a comment.

You would think he would be best placed to make such a comment.

He does seem very familiar with nonsense. He’s just spouting the German official line. Germany just wants to pretend that this isn’t happening and that they’ll be able to keep importing Russian gas and exporting stuff there. Germany is in denial about reality on this.

https://nypost.com/2021/09/13/russian-spy-ship-that-can-cut-undersea-cables-spotted-in-english-channel/

Hmmm, what are the Russki’s up to?

https://nypost.com/2021/09/13/russian-spy-ship-that-can-cut-undersea-cables-spotted-in-english-channel/

Hmmm, what are the Russki’s up to?

And how exactly would they know the capabilities of such a ship. I dont think they print that type of stuff in the local Russian library under – Spy Ship Plans.

And given theres so many, you pretty much cant sail anywhere without crossing over at least one.

The New York Times today issued an extraordinary mea culpa over its coverage of Iraq, admitting it had been misled about the presence of weapons of mass destruction.

New York Post Archives.

And how exactly would they know the capabilities of such a ship.

It’s called “espionage”. Each country photographs the shit out of every military vehicle, ship, and aircraft belonging to other countries every chance they get. Those are analyzed by experts who pore over every detail. They also gather electromagnetic and infrared emissions and analyze those for clues, plus seabed microphones to gather acoustic emissions, and so forth. On top of that, defectors or spies might provide detailed technical details. Just getting dockworkers drunk and letting them blabber away will give details about operational matters. Figuring out that a ship is designed to cut undersea cables would not be as difficult as you imagine.

It’s called “espionage”.

Yup this is true.

But when you know about such information it’s prudent not to let on you know what they have,and printing it in the main newspapers throws that into a cocked hat.

I read a case years ago about a secret US aircraft. It was top top secret, even congress didnt know it existed.

Until a local model company released it as a kit.

They while picking up plans for aircraft for their models were inadvertently given the secret plans as well.

But when you know about such information it’s prudent not to let on you know what they have,and printing it in the main newspapers throws that into a cocked hat.

Yes and no. Disclosing what you know about another nation’s activities can let them know that they are being watched and deter them from doing it. It’s not always such a big deal to disclose intelligence unless drawn from covert human sources.

The cable cutting, or at least getting caught doing it, does seem to be a Russian speciality. Their vessels have been spotted close to areas where cables have been ‘damaged’. There was one up in Sweden last week that was almost certainly conducted by the Russians. So not a biggie to say: “We know what your ship can do and we know where it is and where it has been”.