Possibly the only reason they know or suspect is we will have our own ship designed for cutting communication cables.

It would be prudent for us to have our own.

Biden looks clueless. He may as well have green lit Russian actions with his ‘minor incursion’ gaff.

It’s not always such a big deal to disclose intelligence unless drawn from covert human sources.

For many things, it will be obvious that the other side knows the capabilities. For example, an AWACS plane is huge and cannot be disguised. Other countries can get high resolution photos of them, look at the visible antennae, and analyze all the electromagnetic signals. Once they are used operationally, it’s not giving anything away to discuss their obvious capabilities.

There are numerous signals that Russia has sent recently that make me believe invasion is almost certain, as well as a substantial number of reasons for why this is the preferred route for Putin

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) December 21, 2021

That German navel commander got the sack (left his post) this morning.
Also news but could be rubbish that Putin has brought in a lot of eastern Russian based soldiers that might not have close ties to Ukraine or western lifestyle ambitious for the dirty fighting when the general population get involved.
It turns out it’s a well know tactic even the Roman empire did it.

I can see a huge cyber attack coming to keep you IT folk off singletrack you can put those coffee machines to good use.

Why hasn’t Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?

They (and Georgia and Bosnia) became ‘partners’ in 2008, with aspirations to join.
The official reason is that they do not yet meet all the criteria.
I’m not sure if they could be granted emergency admission tomorrow, that would be a very strong signal to Russia, but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.

but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.

Exactly. Feels like Russia can pretty much invade who it likes

BREAKING: I demand the immediate withdrawl of Russian troops from the historical sphere of influence of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, including #Belarus and #Ukraine. Russia's westward expansion since the annexation of Novgorod in 1478 is an outrageous provocation. @RussiaMfa pic.twitter.com/tHUOqLb2WP

— Matas Maldeikis MP 🇱🇹 (@MatasMaldeikis) January 24, 2022

Haha! But, also, depressingly good point

Oh god imagine if the UK demanded the same? That’s nearly a 1/3 of all habitable land mass, isn’t it?!?

Why hasn’t Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?

They don’t meet several anti-corruption standards that are part of the formal requirements for joining.

There’s also the small matter of having an Eastern region in the middle of a seperatist civil war, where do you draw the border?

That said, international treaties are very much a case of ‘where there’s a will there’s a way’ and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.

‘where there’s a will there’s a way’ and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.

All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked. Ukraine has major corruption problems. They need to get their house in order before anyone is going to let them join NATO.

However, if Poland is used as a base to supply weapons and train Ukrainian soldiers out of reach of Russian weapons, that will force Putin to decide whether to tolerate it or attack Poland. If he does attack Poland, then NATO will be forced to respond. That would involve military action within Ukraine, even if they didn’t attack targets in Russia. Once that happens, some sort of quasi-membership of NATO for Ukraine seems likely.

Interesting bit of posturing from the RAF. This is a live track for one of their spy planes right now – just chugging along the border of Crimea. The purple lines in the sea mark the territorial boundary.

They’d not normally fly with the tracking switched on.

Rivet Joint aircraft – MOD

All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked

Article V. In the absence of that I can’t see anyone in NATO having the appetite for even a limited mechanised war against a well-equipped enemy.

Stand back everyone! Liz is on the case!

Liz Truss says she will be visiting Ukraine next week. Says met PM last night to discuss crisis. In reference to Germany's refusal to allow Estonian arms exports into Ukraine via Germany she says "We do need all of our allies to step up".

— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) January 25, 2022

It is unclear at this point whether she’ll be driving a tank

Interesting analysis.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/

^^^ Fantastic article. Thanks.

With Putin’s troops mincing around on the Ukrainian border I can’t help but look at Russia and appreciate just how backwards it is. At least the degree of corruption in the UK appears to be simmering around illegal wine and cheese at the moment, as opposed to invading an entire country to give the world’s richest man slightly easier access to his holiday home.

It would be nice if we could have a tiny gap of normality between Covid and war in Europe.

That German navel commander got the sack

Navel commander got the sack.

Must have been aiming too low 😛

Speaking of anti corruption standards America not too pleased with Putin using London to launder his cash

Or the number of ministers taking Russian money

From a wide-ranging report by the Centre for American Progress – a think tank close to the Biden administration – on what to do if Putin invades Ukraine. This passage says U.K. govt so compromised by Russian money, the US may have to intervene. https://t.co/tSZngDCM4V pic.twitter.com/nkNwjW9OLt

— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) January 26, 2022

This is what Putin is actually afraid of.

“A free Ukraine will pull Russia westward if it isn’t brought to heel.” https://t.co/NjGViJWzHc

— John Sipher (@john_sipher) January 26, 2022

Good article that. I would imagine the ripple effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan would be of concern too.

I am increasingly of the opinion that the side show we are all missing is the effective takeover or Belarus. It will be a tangible increase in power and set back any hope of getting rid of the current dictator the people might have after the stolen election

I’d seen that mooted elsewhere, and certainly Belarus has something looking like an occupying military in place now.

This is what Putin is actually afraid of.

Great point. A bit like how Ukraine was pulled towards Europe after seeing the massive uptick in Poland’s fortunes after joining the EU

In fact that also explains why Russia was interfering so hard in our 2016 referendum

Me to Russian-speaking waiter in eastern Ukraine: so do you think Vladimir Putin will invade again?

Waiter: No way! They'll face even more Western sanctions, and they already have no proper parmesan in Russia or good foreign cheese at all. It won't happen.

— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) January 30, 2022

Two waves of Eurofighters over our house this afternoon.

We get no military aircraft activity here and they were clearly in transit rather than a training exercise.

Edit – This is the UK

The Sino-Russian joint statement, signed in Beijing, is an extremely interesting programmatic document. I am sure we'll soon have the English translation but here's the link to the Russian version: https://t.co/LMmQYpoxzh. Some observations. 👇🏿

— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) February 4, 2022

Two waves of Eurofighters over our house this afternoon.

5 Harriers shot down during the Falklands skirmish, against a relatively small power as Argentina is, they’re going to need a shed load more against a superpower like Russia.

Total losses in the Falklands were 258 men, 6 ships,(10 others damaged in battle) total 34 aircraft(in battles or lost as a result) at a cost at the time of £3billion(about £10billion now).

We cant afford such losses. A few Eurofighters flying this way and that to get in the papers might bolster the Sun, Mail and Dail Star, but I dont think the powers that be, are going to seriously consider such a move as going up against Russia, no matter the provocation..

We cant afford such losses.

Completely the opposite. The Russian economy is about the size of Italy’s. It’s a fraction the size of the NATO economies. Russia can’t afford to fight NATO. To Putin, having NATO forces on the Russian border is intolerable, but there’s nothing he can do about it. He’s really painted himself into a corner on this, he can’t back down, Ukraine isn’t capitulating, and he can’t afford to get into a proper war because the Russian economy is a basket case.

They have China in their corner and China is desperate for resources of the type Russia has in abundance. Might find China picks up some of the tab. Plus China is never going to be a friend to nato or the US.

Plus I think the whole Russia/Soviet thing never really went away, and if the military is told to do something they do it.

Nothing boosts an economy like a good war.

Sing up now.

he can’t afford to get into a proper war because the Russian economy is a basket case

I suspect he doesn’t care that much about such issues.

I suspect (IANARE) that pride and power may override such practical considerations.

They have China in their corner

China is in its own corner. They don’t care about Ukraine or Russia. China will do whatever it thinks is best for itself, they have no loyalty to Russia.

Russia directly fighting NATO is fantasy chat.

Russia directly fighting NATO is fantasy chat.

Exactly.

China is in its own corner. They don’t care about Ukraine or Russia. China will do whatever it thinks is best for itself, they have no loyalty to Russia.

Absolutely. And if China thinks it going to get a better deal on resources they’ll go that route. I dont think anyone is denying China ,like every allied power is free to choose who or what it does in any conflict.

Except maybe Lithuania, currently acting as empowered mouthpiece for the US.

Except maybe Lithuania, currently acting as empowered mouthpiece for the US.

Lithuania is a NATO member. They can mouth off as much as they like and Putin can’t do anything abut it. If he attacks them, all NATO countries are required to join the fight.

My money on this is that Putin realizes that his bluff has been called and he slinks back to cower in his little grotto. He’s not going to win this, it’s just a matter of how badly he chooses to lose.

let us all hope so.