Ukraine

Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn’t seem to happening anyway..

It might or might not be connected with Gerhard Schroeder being employed by some of the Russian gas companies at a senior level.

Good article on German military assistance to Ukraine here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html

I read the Gepard anti air tanks are credited for keeping the Russian airforce away from countering the UA Kharkiv offensive. Germans are criticised for not supplying Leopard 1 tanks they have in storage, but no country has supplied western tanks. The Germans have encouraged eastern partners to provide Russian tanks and be back filled by German tanks. I do think Olaf Scholz comes across as a bit hand wringing about this, though that’s understandable given past German history in eastern europe.

I especially like the 30 Amorok SUVs

Comment in the Guardian.

Such are the grim dynamics of Russia’s descent into totalitarian paranoia that any hope of Putin being dislodged from power brings wariness of whatever might follow. There is no successor and no mechanism for naming one. The model is a hybrid of tsarist autocracy and mafia clannishness. Communist one-party rule in the Soviet era had at least some constitutional consistency before it unravelled completely.

shermer75
Free Member

Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn’t seem to happening anyway..

TBH it seems to be entirely manufactured outrage? IIRC they’ve supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA. Some people just seem to like slagging off germany.

IIRC they’ve supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA.

Supplied or promised? That’s a genuine question. I haven’t followed up on details of aid, but I think one of the criticisms was that Germany was promising a lot, but not actually delivering, whereas Poland was actually delivering a lot more than Germany. Things might have changed since then, of course, but even if Germany has delivered everything promised, other countries are providing much relative to the size of their economies.

Article here about German arms supply to Ukraine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/13/ukraine-germany-more-military-hardware-counter-offensive

Ukraine singled out the German anti aircraft Gepard tanks as being crucial to their recent victory in khrakiv

Worth pointing out that Ukrainian commanders have singled out the Gepard as one of the most crucial elements of their forces in the Kharkiv counteroffensive, keeping the Russian airforce at bay. Germany's support to Ukraine has been significant. https://t.co/ECp6jTrlEh

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 11, 2022

Germany has announced they are sending a further 50
Ukraine are asking for the Leopard MBT as well, but Germany are reluctant ( tho I’m not sure any country is supplying modern MBTs?)

TBH it seems to be entirely manufactured outrage? IIRC they’ve supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA. Some people just seem to like slagging off germany

The issue with Germany is that it has the largest GDP in the EU, followed by France, Italy and Spain.
The first three are seen as having the greatest links to Russia: Germany through the NordStream scandals, France through Macron and Italy through Berlusconi, although support for Russia in Italy had lessened.
Germany’s initial offering to UKR was 5000 helmets, which is pitiful for the fourth largest world economy by GDP.
For years those same countries have been under-funding their indirect contributions to NATO (set at 2% GDP in 2006) Estimated 2021 figures put Spain at 1.02%, Italy at 1.41%, Germany at 1.53% and France at 2.01%. Each of those countries had been contributing much less for many years until Trump threatened to pull the US (3.52%) out if countries didn’t contribute. (UK for reference has been 2%+ for a decade or more)
Biggest economies + greatest links to Russia + low NATO contributions = something that doesn’t sit well

I made the comment however many pages ago that I didn’t think that Germany has the kit to send, it still has c100 Tornado aircraft, for example (we got rid of ours in 2019), but what it could do and hasn’t is buy kit and send that. Early in the war (April??) the UK bought and refurbished artillery pieces specifically for Ukraine, Germany has hidden behind a programme of promises and training, then supplying nothing until everyone is trained

More dissent from the party line on Russian TV. Just one guy getting hounded by the hawks but the body language to my mind says he wins and their bluff and bluster is paper thin and faltering.

I hope he and others who criticise are OK, but they certainly seem more willing to speak out in recent days. A glimmer of hope that Putin’s narrative is creaking.

"Are We The Baddies?" moment on Russian TV: one pundit—responding to his genocidal colleagues, who assert that Ukrainian nationality and language do not exist—suddenly realizes he is in the company of actual Nazis and says, "This is clear cut nationalism."https://t.co/9If9zMLrn2 pic.twitter.com/qZUX0etGlL

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 14, 2022

And in other news:
The St Petersburg District Council that called for Putin to resign is likely to be dissolved following a Court Order yesterday

Border guards in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have exchanged gunfire. I don’t think that’s what was envisaged by one poster here when they considered that Central Asia might wade into the conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been kicking off on their border, approx 100 killed yesterday. Russia’s war in UKR has undermined its role in regional security, IDK whether Russia has removed its peace-keepers in the region to duties elsewhere

I started a new thread on Armenia and Azerbaijan to keep this one on topic.

Armenia and Azerbaijan

Border guards in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have exchanged gunfire.

There are a few improbably straight line borders in the Stans. I don’t know too much about how they got that way if anybody happens to know?

is this the start of several countries chosing this moment to settle disputes. feeling like domino’s are starting to fall

While Germany could have done more & faster a lot of the criticism is overhyped

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html?m=1

Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, Germany has faced severe criticism and even mockery for its perceived lack of support to Ukraine and its ill-fated attempts to keep its relationship with Moscow intact. While ultimately positioning itself as a reliable partner of Ukraine, it can be argued that Berlin’s communication to affirm its Ukraine stance and explain foreign policy goals has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster.

German materiel support already delivered to Ukraine includes fifteen Gepard SPAAGs, three M270 MLRS, ten PzH 2000 self-propelled guns (SPGs) along with guided artillery rounds, 3200 man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), close to 10.000 Panzerfaust 3 and RWG 90 MATADOR anti-tank weapons, hundreds of vehicles, nearly 22 million rounds of ammunition and a plethora of other equipment including 28.000 helmets and MiG-29 spare parts. These deliveries are soon to be followed by a further 15 Gepard SPAAGs, one IRIS-T SLM SAM battery, 20 laser-guided rocket systems, 43 reconnaissance UAVs and up to 20 unmanned ships. Berlin also contributed at least €2 billion to Ukraine’s security capacity building fund with which the Ukrainian government can purchase armament from other countries, including a further 100 PzH 2000s from German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.

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Also worth pointing out Germany has taken in over a million refugees, second only to Poland

Meanwhile the UK has taken in well under 100,000 with the visa process still denying 1000s

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk has claimed that the Ukrainians have taken Lyman. Important because it acts as a staging post for an assault on both Severodonetsk and Svatove. The latter is apparently important as it acts – like Balakliya did – as a supply dump for the Russians and would also allow the Ukrainians to circle behind the new Russian lines to the east of the Oskil River.

Unconfirmed of course, but if true would indicate that the Ukrainians aren’t stopping and are moving into the Donbas proper. Were they to take Severodonetsk it would be massive given its wider strategic importance and the effort that the Russians put in – in terms of men and materials – to take it in the first place!

Thanks for that kimbers.

Yeah, I think one big problem for Germany is that they come across as sitting on the fence, hoping that this will all blow over and they can get back to making money from trade with Russia. I used to be in favour of the idea that Russia and China (and other autocracies) could be persuaded to improve their behaviour by engaging in trade and showing them the benefits of a peaceful international system. I think the West had to try that, but now it’s time to acknowledge that it has failed completely with Russia and that Russia needs to be isolated until they prove they can behave like a civilized country. I believe that will take decades and Germany should just accept that things aren’t going to go back to how they were.

The other problem is that countries with much smaller economies are contributing much more relative to their economic size. That makes it easy for Ukraine to criticize Germany. Part of that is probably a Ukrainian strategy to pressure the West for more assistance, they were saying similar things about the U.S. a few months back too. Not entirely honest on Ukraine’s part but it’s hard to criticize Ukraine for doing that given how desperate their situation is.

While Germany could have done more & faster a lot of the criticism is overhyped

Absolutely. @thols2 points out that they did nothing early on, which for many was Crimea in 2014 all over again. Scholtz, Macron and Draghi didn’t visit Kyiv until the end of June. Boris, Ursula von der Leyen (EC), Andrzej Duda (Poland) and Karl Nehammer (Austria) all managed to visit in early April.

Germany has displayed poor communication skills and actions leading to criticism that may not be wholly justified. The light man-portable kit was delivered in March, but most of the heavy stuff didn’t begin to be delivered until July and August.

Nice to see Germanys contribution laid out like that. I think the perception has been coloured by their risible initial offering of 5000 helmets. But what about Italy, Spain Belgium etc, piss poor! 👎 And France isn’t doing much better either 🤷‍♂️

I used to be in favour of the idea that Russia and China (and other autocracies) could be persuaded to improve their behaviour by engaging in trade and showing them the benefits of a peaceful international system.

That’s an on-going process, it has been since WW2, and it has been quite successful on balance. It did for the Soviet Union, didn’t it?

You have to remember that Putin is not Russia. There are plenty of modern urban Russians who were getting used to western comforts (see the ones in tears because IKEA was closing) and they have seen a comfortable life with opportunities. Their views won’t go away, and they will be quite clear on how they get it back. So the desire to trade and work with the rest of the world is still there with the people who can. So Putin or whoever else tries to run Russia as an authoritarian isolated regime will always be fighting against that.

That’s an on-going process, it has been since WW2, and it has been quite successful on balance. It did for the Soviet Union, didn’t it?

No, the Soviet Union imploded. It didn’t become a bastion of liberal democracy because of trade ties.

Smaller countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan became liberal democracies because they had close relationships with the West and their leaders realized that their countries were much better off as part of a liberal international order than aligning with the USSR or China.

Russia and China have deep-seated grievances against the West. They see themselves as great powers that have been crippled by unfair treatment from the West and their vision isn’t to join a U.S. dominated economic system, but to destroy that system and impose their own. Russia is not going to liberalize any time soon, regardless of whether the West agrees to lift sanctions or not.

So Putin or whoever else tries to run Russia as an authoritarian isolated regime will always be fighting against that

From what I understand, the majority of Russians still support Putin. They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.

I dont believe theres any truly reliable information on that.

The prison sentences for opposing the war and much more dont really encourage honest opinions.

From what I understand, the majority of Russians still support Putin. They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.

Maybe the majority of people, but what about those with influence?

No, the Soviet Union imploded. It didn’t become a bastion of liberal democracy because of trade ties.

You don’t think the Russian people’s views of life being better in the west had anything to do with it?

Smaller countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan became liberal democracies because they had close relationships with the West

South Korea was a dictatorship up until the 1981 with a further 5 years of slow transition towards democracy.
Taiwan started to transition from dictatorship at roughly the same time but took longer.
Japan is… complicated with the 1955 system.
The “liberal world order” was quite happy with them as dictatorships though so long as they were on the same side.

Wasnt one of the reasons for Germany’s slowness to support down to their own internal rules around supplying arms to other countries? Probably sensible given WW2….

I cant find the military flights thread but a Rivet Joint is doing laps of Kaliningrad / Konigsburg atm
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d0

Wasnt one of the reasons for Germany’s slowness to support down to their own internal rules around supplying arms to other countries? Probably sensible given WW2….

they were probably conflicted with “giving credence to Russian De-Nazification claims” if their old enemy piled in straight away as well.

I cant find the military flights thread but a Rivet Joint is doing laps of Kaliningrad / Konigsburg atm

Here’s an interesting one. Not your usual Gulfstream executive jet. Looks like it has a side looking radar on it. Currently doing laps of the Romanian Black Sea coast.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=33fd99

What happens to Kaliningrad, Transnistria South Ossetia and all other other littler statelets that Russia has either supported or willed into being will be very interesting now that their much vaunted military might has been shown to be a paper tiger.

Interesting times. The Ukrainian’s have been massively successful which is to be lauded.

I wonder where this takes us. Despots don’t usually last very long after humiliating military defeats.

I don’t think that the Germans, Poles, Swedes etc  want Kaliningrad back. They all have historical claims to it but I’m sure it’s not going to be moving away from Russia any time soon. It’s an artefact from WWII

The other 2 are areas where Russia has deliberately provoked the local status quo with their own land grabbing interests at heart.

Here’s an interesting one. Not your usual Gulfstream executive jet. Looks like it has a side looking radar on it. Currently doing laps of the Romanian Black Sea coast.

Italian Air Force Gulfstream G-550 Conformal Airborne Early Warning (CAEW) aircraft.

More reading here.

Not sure about us having an historical claim to Kaliningrad other than the fact that Sweden once owned most of the countryside around the Baltic. That was, as I understand it, a long time ago and not something that we are looking to do again.

What happens to Kaliningrad, Transnistria South Ossetia and all other other littler statelets that Russia has either supported or willed into being will be very interesting now that their much vaunted military might has been shown to be a paper tiger

Georgia is considering taking back Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Georgian Dream Party promises to hold referendum on beginning war on Russia

They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.

They also don’t have a say in that decision

I think the West had to try that, but now it’s time to acknowledge that it has failed completely with Russia and that Russia needs to be isolated until they prove they can behave like a civilized country

It looks like we’ve taken some steps towards that. China, on the other hand, might be lot more difficult! Our economies rely so heavily on theirs I just don’t see how it could be done

Zelenskiy in Izium is again a sharp contrast with Putin, who hasn't been anywhere near front, made brief visit to a military hospital once in May, and otherwise (as far as we know) has got no closer to troops than looking at them through binoculars at exercises. (pics AP&Reuters) pic.twitter.com/X66OBTch1R

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) September 14, 2022

At least one of the reasons why Putin is losing his war