Ukraine

Seems reasonable. Good bit of kit, that.

This is unbelievable

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 13, 2022

Should we (NATO) train UAF on NATO MBT’s and aircraft over the winter, ready for a spring offensive?

I’m not sure that it’s either simple or effective. It’s not just drivers that you’ll need but the logistics, the technicians, the stores of weapons and spares, refuelling (especially in-flight refuelling) etc, etc.
Some of the more up to date systems might have to be removed for reasons of operational security and ease of training. It’ll take months just to sort the admin and logistics; don’t forget that you’ll have to supply everything because Soviet kit won’t fit in the barrels and talk to the western kit
The German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has been taking a kicking in the media for refusing to send Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) and MBTs until a consensus has been reached in the west. She’s been accused of lying because Oz has supplied the Bushmaster, but she’s correct; the Bushmaster isn’t classed as an IFV in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe because the weaponry is too small.
Far better IMHO to support UKR in its use of Soviet IFVs and MBTs (they build them) and help out with logistics, maintenance and supplies from other former Soviet NATO members.
Similarly with the aircraft; UKR know how to fight with the Soviet kit.
Update the former Soviet NATO members to NATO kit which enables them to integrate better and sort UKR out as and when they join NATO and the EU

This is unbelievable

I’m actually amazed that any of them actually stayed this long, assumed they all fled after the airbase attack.

A lot of supposition & rumour but the above could be related to this

This is where Russia keeps its AWACS and IL-76 transport fleet aircraft.

If this was indeed a successful Ukrainian strike on Russia's AWACS fleet.

Crimea is may now be untenable as a base for the Black Sea Fleet without airborne radar command post coverage. https://t.co/VpDv3uGfsA

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 12, 2022

Manchester Guardian has a decent little article that has some of the background to the Armenian/Azerbaijan dust up.

I really don’t remember a 2020 six week war! Suppose it was overtaken by Covid news.

Eg we’ll lift some sanctions if Russia agrees to open elections with EU/US/whoever representatives over seeing them?

Possibly. But Putin is only in this for himself. And that is purely based on greed and ideas of his legacy.

Russia will not surrender to the point where the west can place the terms on to Russia. This is not like WW2 where Germany was made to unconditionally surrender because it had no choice. Ukraine is not going to go all the way to Moscow and make Putin’s regime untenable. Russia will still have an army.

The only hope we have is the Russian people revolting when sanctions really start biting. Whether Putin gives a shit is another matter.

Can’t see the sanctions going anywhere anytime soon

A lot of supposition & rumour but the above could be related to this

It seems that is August footage of the airfield attack in Crimea. Trent Telenko (Great name BTW) later retracts that tweet  and admits he got taken in by it.

The only hope we have is the Russian people revolting when sanctions really start biting.

Although we’ve not heard much about it recently, there was quite a lot of unrest about Putin in the eastern regions a while back. If the military getting their arse handed them results in a lot of dead soldiers or more criticism from regional leaders, this hopefully this will expand and start a revolt sooner. Just hope it doesn’t end in military violence against civilians.

The US has 400 HIMARS systems, they should send them all.

The US has 400 HIMARS systems, they should send them all.

Ammo is going to be the problem. They are already working through the stockpile especially since they have the M270s (same ammo but tracked vehicles instead) as well.

Putin is assembling his most elite troops

#Ukraine Russen #UkraineRussiaWar #Russian

Wer kennt sie nicht diese berüchtigte russische Eskalationsdominanz… https://t.co/T3G8hiZRDl

— Patrick Cameron (@PatrickLiberal) September 13, 2022

I do feel that jigsaw pieces are being put in, and perhaps we are at the point where the picture is clearer and there are only a few hundred pieces of a 5000 piece puzzle to get in place…

I do feel that jigsaw pieces are being put in, and perhaps we are at the point where the picture is clearer and there are only a few hundred pieces of a 5000 piece puzzle to get in place…

Ah but that’s the slowest bit! You’ve done all the interesting stuff and now there’s just a load of identical blue pieces to finish the sky off. Nightmare. Takes ages.

Putin is assembling his most elite troops

Reminds me of the “authentic frontier gibberish” scene from Blazin’ Saddles.

Ah but that’s the slowest bit! You’ve done all the interesting stuff and now there’s just a load of identical blue pieces to finish the sky off. Nightmare. Takes ages.

Agreed.

Yet the end feels like it may be in sight.

Colonists leaving Crimea after all this time represents a complete collapse of confidence.

I don’t know if this song is Ukraine’s national anthem or just a popular patriotic song, but I’ve heard it, or excerpts from it on loads of Ukrainian video clips.  Either way it’s incredibly stirring, it knocks spots off our dirge of an anthem.  This rendition is fantastic, especially the little lad playing guitar on a stick top right at the end!  Makes the hairs stand up on my neck, even though I haven’t a clue what they are singing!

#Ukraine #ukrainecounteroffensive #StandWithUkraine #GoAhead #SlavaUkraini #ArmUkraine ????✊??Jusqu’à la victoire ! #contreoffensive ?? #StopRussianTerror pic.twitter.com/n0CSNJnWhd

— StandWithUkraine (@UkraineStand) September 12, 2022

Has ‘too bloody old’ been booted off STW?

No forum posting history on his profile now.

That’s a rework of a very old folk song.

This is the actual Ukr anthem, these were some of the troops just hours before they took part in the Kharkiv offensive, gets me everytime.

Has ‘too bloody old’ been booted off STW?

No forum posting history on his profile now

Hope so, although it’s prob more likely a forum glitch

Shirley, it can’t be beyond the mods to track down the IP and geolocate…

Not going to miss absolute bs like this;

Putin is far cleverer than just about anyone else and very well trained .

90 Minuten Telefonat mit #Putin: Russland muss seine Truppen aus der #Ukraine zurückziehen und die Souveränität und territoriale Integrität anerkennen. Anders ist eine diplomatische Lösung nicht vorstellbar. pic.twitter.com/OizvxZHwiE

— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) September 13, 2022

Scholz stating that Putin needs to leave Ukraine before a diplomatic solution is conceivable.

This is really impressive stuff from Ukraine. Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country

Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country

Thank **** Boris is no longer around to pop out there and take the credit for it.

Although I suppose Liz could still dip into her own dressing up box for a publicity tour…

TBF to Boris, he was pretty solid and outspoken in support of UKraine. I just can’t believe how it’s turning out. As long as the Russians keep collapsing, they should be gone in weeks!

Agreed. This is the one thread in which I could post in praise of his actions. Despite his dubious links to Russian interests before this invasion, he did step up and offer clear support for Ukraine as soon as Putin’s intentions were clear.

This is really impressive stuff from Ukraine. Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country

There’s still a long way to go and the cost will be high, the fighting in Kherson and Donetsk is much fiercer than Kharkiv

True, if the Russians regroup effectively and dig in…I suppose they already have a more solid base in the Southeast of Ukraine. Unless they can sneak round the back and cut them off?

If the Russians dog in do the ukranians now have the tools to bomb them to bits?

Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn’t seem to happening anyway..

Is it sensible to imagine that the Russians will be ****ed with the onset of winter, ie ill-equipped for the weather, lacking reinforcements/replacements, malnourished, poor morale, etc? And surely more people in their homeland will be increasingly aware of what’s really happening?

Ukrainians OTOH will no doubt be up for the fight with better winter gear, equipment etc.

Surely Putin will become the new Napoleon?

I think it is brilliant to watch the Ukrainians go on the offensive as it will be great for their morale and hurt the Russians……..however I am not going to celebrate too much yet. I think the Russians knew they couldn’t hold all the ground they had and will regroup and dig in to hold what they have in Donetsk and Luhansk where they have been for years and will be harder to shift and will let Putin keep saying he is achieving his special operation goals. I also think they will try to hold where they are in Kherson and Zaporizhzkia in a bid to protect their land bridge to Crimea and there could be a bit of a stalemate for a while. if the Ukrainians can make inroads here then the tide may turn and make things  untenable for Putin. The quicker option would obviously  be for Putin to go which may happen yet.

Can anyone tell me how the people of Luhansk/Donetsk and Crimea see things (genuine question)? After so long with Russian influence do they support Russia or Ukraine, as this will obviously impact on what happens here.

Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine?

Well, no one has sent modern (I mean currently western built) heavy NATO MBTs/IFVs yet I don’t think? Which is what I’m seeing Germany criticised for. And one of the most advanced artillery systems available is the PzH2000.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-authorizes-production-of-100-howitzers-for-ukraine/

Although Archer looks terrifying.

Today, together with @AndersFoghR in Kyiv, we present recommendations on security guarantees for Ukraine, which were developed on behalf of @ZelenskyyUa. pic.twitter.com/zPtQwdf2Ij

— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) September 13, 2022

Document for that here https://www.president.gov.ua/storage/j-files-storage/01/15/89/41fd0ec2d72259a561313370cee1be6e_1663050954.pdf

Unless they can sneak round the back and cut them off?

That looks like the strategy to me – but what do I know?

If the Russians dog in do the ukranians now have the tools to bomb them to bits?

I would imagine large numbers of Russians would use that as an excuse to simply surrender.

⚡️ The authorities of Georgia proposed to organize a national referendum and ask the question: do Georgians want war with Russia.

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) September 13, 2022

The main bonus Ukraine has now (compared with 5 yrs ago), is much better support from NATO/EU, who realise the Putin threat. It’s too late to back out, so they may as well finish the job.