Ukraine

The Stans?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-kazakhstan-start-oil-sales-via-azeri-pipeline-bypass-russia-2022-08-12/

Kazakhstan is expected to sell some of its crude oil through Azerbaijan’s biggest oil pipeline from September, as the nation seeks alternatives to a route Russia threatened to shut, three sources familiar with the matter said.

Itll be a mixed bag in reality

At this point, it’s impossible to tell what is Ukrainian psyops and what is fact. The Ukrainians apparently tracked all the Russian cellphones operating in Ukraine (i.e. Russian soldiers) and sent them a text message explaining how to surrender. The “reports” that large numbers of Russians are negotiating to surrender might be true, they might just be another attempt at demoralizing Russian troops. I hope the Russians do either surrender of flee, but best to not believe anything until it’s confirmed.

Good point. Its not necessarily lefties tho

I agree, the left doesn’t have a monopoly on bad takes about Ukraine. A pro Kremlin stance seems to be one thing many on the far left and far right agree on.

I think though that when @thols2 referenced ‘how can we stop this war’ he was referring to this event, which to be fair is organised by the left, includes no Ukrainian input on the panel but does include someone banned from entering Ukraine for his pro Kremlin views. I can imagine how enraged Ukrainians would be by this, as evidenced by some of the comments.

@STWUK #LabourParty Conference Fringe Meeting

How Do We End the War in #Ukraine?

Sun 25 Sept • 7:15 PM

RSVP?? https://t.co/oiYwdDKZ2N#Lab22 pic.twitter.com/9cAMXkIIn0

— Stop the War (@STWuk) September 7, 2022

I hope the Russians do either surrender of flee, but best to not believe anything until it’s confirmed.

It’ll be simpler if they flee because of the logistics involved in PoW processing, feeding, transporting, etc. There’s enough to do with the logistics of dealing with the materiel left behind
Having said that it does make PoW swaps more problematic, especially as civilians have reportedly been moved to Russia

Rumours that putin has fled Moscow to his country retreat.

I think ‘flee’ is doing some very heavy lifting in that Link!

It’s going to be a cold winter for residents left in Kharkiv.

RF just destroying infrastructure on its way out of town.

The moment of the missile strike on the Thermal power station in Kharkiv from UkraineWarVideoReport

Maybe thats Putins new plan.

Blow all the infrastructure and then hand then thousands of POWs that ukraine now has to feed / heat and guard. I suppose if you are going to struggle to feed your own troops making them your enemies problem is probably a better gambit.

Wonder if ukraine could call on other states to house / help out with the POW’s. Thats non-combative assistance

A lot of Ukrainian psyops with the surrender stuff, but there’s probably plenty of Russians who want a way out

And with resupply lines from Belarus via Izyum now gone they will be worried

Surrender cards are being distributed to ??forces:

'Your ticket to a peaceful life. Show this card to a Ukrainian soldier – it will save your life and help you get back home'

On the back: a telegram chat & phone number they can contact 'to receive detailed support'.#Ukraine️ pic.twitter.com/sGFqZTiDyu

— WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) September 12, 2022

What’s the point of Russia doing this? Is Putin having a tantrum? Has no-one ever said “no” to him before?

This just makes things worse when inevitably they have to face up to reality.

Ukraine was calling for about $300Bn in reparations a few days ago – that actually seems like quite a reasonable request. But this kind of thing just adds to the final bill for Putin’s party.

this event, which to be fair is organised by the left, includes no Ukrainian input on the panel but does include someone banned from entering Ukraine for his pro Kremlin views. I can imagine how enraged Ukrainians would be by this, as evidenced by some of the comments.

Exactly. It’s an embarrassment (although I am assuming they aren’t going to conclude that we should send weapons and money to Ukraine so that they can expel Russian forces, if they do, credit to them.)

What do we make of Putins demand that the oligarchs fund and build their own armies?

Putin flees Moscow.

Goat deflowerers are being sent to round up Russian army deserters.

Regional deputies are issuing letter of no confidence.

There are no supplies for an army (and that’s ignoring the lack of willing volunteers).

Ukraine has struck strategic military targets in Russia.

There’s been a fair bit of chatter on all of those topics some of which may or may not be true but all seem to have some grounding in truth. So what happens now?

What are goat deflowerers?

Wild stab in the dark here, but I’m going to guess it’s a derogatory term for Muslims, probably Chechens.

Enquiring minds want to know. ^^^^ 🤷‍♂️

ISW is reporting the surrender negotiations (caveated) – they’re usually reliable.

Thats a derogatory term for Kadyrov’s Tik Tok Battalion. Ive not seen it used more generally but im sure someone has.

Id post THAT night vision video with the goat…. but id really rather not. (Which has to be faked anyway)

What’s the point of Russia doing this? Is Putin having a tantrum? Has no-one ever said “no” to him before?

Ukraine has been an embarrassment to Putin – after the breakup of the soviet union former soviet states have flourished and Russia has stagnated. particularly during the time of Putin’s leadership. Ukraininans have been enjoying a much better quality of life that their Russian neighbours. So although Putin has been calling this a ‘liberation’ he’s been destroying infrastructure and shopping malls and housing since the start – its never been the aim for life to be better there in future. But its easier to make things worse in Ukraine than it is to make things better in Russia

If you think back to the Vietnam war there was a change of strategy by the US from one for winning to one for losing with their interests in mind. The campaign of carpet bombing was nothing other than vandalism it wasn’t an effort to win – they just wanted there to be nothing for the winners – it was just covering the landscape in craters and unexploded ordinance so that it would be un-farmable –  a way of ensuring poverty in the country for generations to come.

I’m surprised that UA has not moved past the Oskil river and further pressed its advantage. I supposed an operational pause is needed for supply lines to catch up with the advance.

Thats a derogatory term for Kadyrov’s Tik Tok Battalion. Ive not seen it used more generally but im sure someone has.

There are loads of Ukrainian trolling memes suggesting Kadyrov has ‘a fondness’ for goats.  The guy seems a nasty piece of work but I’ve not seen any evidence of that.  It does sometimes seem to be extended to Chechen fighters generally, which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.

Yes I’ve seen this meme

Trap for #Kadyrov #kadyrovites #RussianWarCrimes #RussianUkrainianWar #Russians #RussianSoldier pic.twitter.com/rp7bdo8ePh

— Mariusz Cieslinski (@MariuszCieslins) April 23, 2022

which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.

No arguing with that.

how did we get from a hypothetical Russia being defeated by Ukraine on Ukrainian territory to ‘you’ (do you mean me, Ukraine, the West) moving to to Asia and threatening China? That’s some leap and not what we were talking about.

I think Chewkw’s point depends on certain conspiracist assumptions. Viz:

1. This is actually a proxy war between Russia and NATO/The USA/The West/etc etc
2. So if Russia is defeated and has settlement terms dictated to it, these terms are actually NATO/The USA’s
3. Thus, if forced to accept these terms, Russia now becomes some kind of vassal state of NATO/The West

If we accept the above premise, it does logically follow that China would be unhappy with the sudden influx of US troops and Walmarts and Aircraft Carriers and branches of Dick’s Sporting Goods that would shortly appear on its Siberian border. Understandably. But it’s all a little bit fantastical.

Echoes of Balaklava Company and the Thin Red Line shortly?

which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.

They are at war, this isn’t some diversity and inclusion seminar. 🤦‍♂️

If we accept the above premise, it does logically follow that China would be unhappy with the sudden influx of US troops and Walmarts and Aircraft Carriers and branches of Dick’s Sporting Goods that would shortly appear on its Siberian border. Understandably. But it’s all a little bit fantastical.

US companies where operating freely in Russia and Ukraine before this conflict so not sure how much will change if Russia is defeated. Apart from Starbucks and Maccies wanting their businesses back.

But it’s all a little bit fantastical.

The whole idea that NATO is a puppet-master pulling strings is mostly just a fantasy. NATO and the other U.S. alliances (Japan, South Korea, etc.) are really quite uneasy marriages of convenience. Countries bordering China and Russia don’t trust them and see an alliance with the U.S. as a better choice, but they are also suspicious and resentful of the U.S. and have their own agendas that are somewhat in conflict with the U.S. agenda. If Russia, China, and North Korea weren’t so belligerent, the Western liberal alliances probably would have faded away. The idea that the U.S. just snaps its fingers and its allies do its bidding has no basis in reality.

They are at war, this isn’t some diversity and inclusion seminar.

Those that consider goat **** an insult are in fact demonising the goat **** community

Maybe they need to go to a diversity and inclusion workshop to learn how to be less judgemental towards people who love goats a little too much?

They are at war, this isn’t some diversity and inclusion seminar. 🤦‍♂️

Well thanks for explaining that to me.  I’m a cheerleader for the right of Ukraine to defend their sovereignty with all the force available to them.  But, Ukraine has had a problem with the extreme right in the past, and though exaggerated that has been weaponised by Putin and used as one of the trumped up reasons for the invasion.  In light of that, maybe Ukrainian memes implying muslims are all fond of bestiality isn’t the best ploy.  Just a thought.

it does not explicitly mention religion just an individual and his acolytes

it does not explicitly mention religion just an individual and his acolytes

It’s directed towards Chechens who are largely muslim and plays on some unpleasant national stereotypes.

The whole idea that NATO is a puppet-master pulling strings is mostly just a fantasy

Although ive no doubt NATO is making the most of it.

Although ive no doubt NATO is making the most of it.

When something like this happens, every country has to think about what their national interests are and how they can best deal with the situation. The West has generally decided that supporting a democracy that was invaded by a violent autocracy was the best course of action. That’s not the same as being a puppet-master pulling the strings, it just happened that Ukraine’s self-interest aligned with the other democracies.

I wonder why they didn’t align in 2014?

When something like this happens

Well, quite.

You can accept an aggressively expansionist authoritarian state expanding on your door step.

Or you can do something to contain it.

I wonder why they didn’t align in 2014?

It’s all about the situation at the time I guess. Back in 2014 the Russians were a bit more ‘subtle’ about what was happening. Plausible deniability and all that. In addition there was a feeling that the Crimea really was (and wanted to be) a part of Russia (gifted by Stalin etc). In addition the Donbas was seen as an internal conflict (albeit supported logistically by the Russians – but then the West has form for supporting domestic insurgencies when deemed appropriate to our interests) which was up to the Ukrainians to resolve.

Because the Russians were circumspect enough about their involvement we were left with a situation whereby the only way we could be meaningfully involved would have been to put boots on the ground. We aren’t going to now and certainly weren’t then.

However what we did do was start to invest significantly in the training and development of the Ukrainian army, as well as supplying them with advanced weaponry. After all those tactics and anti tank missiles that pushed the Russians back from Kiev didn’t just materialise overnight.

As we now know, Putin’s big mistake was to push the West into a position whereby we were forced to get involved. That and seriously underestimate the Ukrainian reaction whilst seriously overestimating his own army’s capabilities.

I think, also, Ukraine had a history of serious corruption and it wasn’t obvious that military support would achieve anything. A big part of Ukraine’s success has been that the people chose democracy and wanted to be like a European country. The West urged them to deal with the corruption problem and provided support for creating a more professional army, but it was the Ukrainians who actually did the work of creating a functional democracy because they didn’t want to be like Russia. With hindsight, it seems inevitable that things would turn out the way they have, but back in 2014, it was not so clear. History is full of the U.S. supporting governments that turned out to be worse than the ones they replaced, Ukraine is one of the shining counterexamples.

^^Two great posts 👍

“Still going to be a bloody rough winter for Ukraine. I don’t see Putin doing a U turn anytime soon. He doesn’t care how many (of either nationality) he sends to the meat grinder.”

The same about/Blair / Obama /Bush etc and many other world leaders .

I think the West only really woke up and aligned when it was clear Ukraine were going all in to resist and fight the invasion and the conflict was going to be bloody. If Russia had walked into Kyiv with no shots fired I they wouldn’t be supported in the same way at all. I think when it was obvious Ukraine was willing to fight the West had to decide to just stand by and watch or to support Ukraine with arms.

The same about/Blair / Obama /Bush etc and many other world leaders .

You’ll find many here that were vocally against what Bush, Blair and others have done abroad… but still think Ukraine should be helped to stand against the invasion by Putin. Have a read of the thread.

What’s with the spaces before full stops thing? I’ve noticed you do that a lot. What’s your first language?