Ukraine

As confident as you were that Russia would never invade

Well now that we’ve crossed that rubicon the logic only goes in one direction. When you’re wrong you reappraise and assess the new situation. I see no reason why he’d now suddenly pull back having crossed the point of no return. Especially when there are many in the west now joining in with the war rhetoric.

Quite frankly if we’re all f**** already then it wouldn’t give me any comfort that we stood up to Putin in the process cos we’ll all be dead anyway

Better to die a free man….

Especially when there are many in the west now joining in with the war rhetoric.

In your imagination. I’m not seeing anyone seriously wanting to risk NATO taking on Putin, on this thread or anywhere else.

Supporting Ukraine, yes. You are conflating the two.

Better to die a free man….

Utter bollocks quite frankly. Like I said, stupid male pride.

Putin used a radioactive poison to kill someone on NATO territory

A poison that uniquely (& deliberately) left a trace back to the source

Daz – I don’t think that’s fair – there are many millions of Ukrainians who would strongly disagree with any suggestion of giving up, and it has nothing to do with male pride. If you were a young woman facing rape, torture, murder and a shallow grave, would you just give up and accept it.

You thought Putin would not invade and I 100% wish you had been correct. But he did and we’ve now got to stay resolute in the face of that. Frankly that’s pretty easy for us compared to what the Ukrainians are going through, but my view is if they can take it so can I.

Is it really? So the Ukrainians taking a stand are suffering from inflated pride?

Better than capitulating cowards, they’re the sort that sell people out in a heartbeat because they cannot manage their fear and neurosis.

Taking a stand against tyranny isn’t inflated pride or ego; it’s people trying to prevent what has ultimately & sadly happened; people laying in the street, hands bound after having their heads turned into a canoe, mass graves and all manner of other atrocities committed against citizens.

You’ll find it’s you chatting utter breeze.

Utter bollocks quite frankly. Like I said, stupid male pride.

Ukrainians who would strongly disagree with any suggestion of giving up

Sigh. You think I think Ukrainians should give up? Not a chance. They’re in this now and are perfectly entitled to do whatever is necessary to protect themselves. If they want to. If they want to flee or give up instead then that’s should be their right too, free from any judgement from us.

The point is it should be their choice. What they don’t need is westerners making assumptions and projecting their own beliefs onto a situation which they themselves will never have to experience. So please let’s not have any of this fantasy ‘better to die as a free man’ nonsense. It’s not a Hollywood movie.

There is only one man struggling with “male pride”
His name is Putin.

Netter than capitulating cowards

I presume you’re posting this from the front?

The Ukrainians were right not to surrender

Breaking News: Satellite images refute Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, a suburb of Ukraine's capital, occurred after its soldiers had left town, a New York Times analysis found. https://t.co/2pDlly6EHs

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 4, 2022

If they had then the whole of Kyiv might look like Bucha now

You think I think Ukrainians should give up? Not a chance.

It’s late, and I cba to trawl back through 7000 posts, but ISTR you have said as much, many pages ago?

The point is it should be their choice. What they don’t need is westerners making assumptions and projecting their own beliefs onto a situation which they themselves will never have to experience.

I’m pretty sure Ukranians don’t give a flying **** what bollocks we spout on this forum, or feel pressured to do what we suggest.

We are debating our opinions amongst ourselves, not bullying a nation into doing what we say.

I think you are reading too much into the bollocks we are spouting

but ISTR you have said as much, many pages ago?

Then you misunderstood. If they want to fight then fine but it should be their choice. What I also said was that they shouldn’t be forced to fight via conscription. If it was me I’d run, as many millions have done. But the ‘free’ men aren’t allowed to do that are they?

Also it’s whataboutery now but there’s no certainty that if Ukraine had rolled over that Putin would have gone on an unhinged rampage. A quick victory for Russia probably would have saved a lot of innocent lives. As usual though people at the bottom have to die to protect the people at the top.

And that’s me out. Clearly no one here is interested in looking at this clusterf*** of a situation from a humanistic or objective viewpoint. War is bandwagon we’re not allowed to not jump on, and anyone who doesn’t is a coward or some other pathetic insult.

None of us want the threat of nuclear conflict hanging over us, but seeing the accounts of Russian atrocities in Ukraine does not fill me with one iota of confidence that Putin is going to stop if we simply roll over and let him conquer a nation of 44m people and turn it into a puppet state.

Perhaps the word “encroaching” is the wrong in usage, invasion is the right word (should have used that word instead). Non of your examples actually tested multipolar power or warrant invading a country.

Do you even recognise multipolar power or simply NATO/West as the unipolar power to define world power?

Therefore, are you advocating preemptive strike or getting NATO to take action on Russian soil or to impose a no fly zone in Ukraine? Wonder why NATO has not done so if they think Putin/Russia is just a paper tiger? After all they have plenty of time since 2014.

So what? you’re just a bloke hammering away at his keyboard like the rest of us, who cares what you think is more likely? you’ve no more info that the rest of us have about the likelihood or otherwise of Putin being stupid enough to turn the launch key. You’re the one who thinks he’s not an idiot after all.

Based on evidence, which I am totally sure, NATO has not declare war on Russia and nor Russia on NATO. Therefore, until someone starts a preemptive strike, conventional warfare prevails in Ukraine. The question is who will trigger the nuke first? Who dares who first?

there’s no certainty that if Ukraine had rolled over that Putin would have gone on an unhinged rampage

He brought 45000 body bags and mobile crematorium, so I think we can assume he intended to do exactly that.

dazh

Also it’s whataboutery now but there’s no certainty that if Ukraine had rolled over that Putin would have gone on an unhinged rampage. A quick victory for Russia probably would have saved a lot of innocent lives. As usual though people at the bottom have to die to protect the people at the top.

Fair potential assumptions but it’s just kicking the killing down the road until he eventually invades a country that doesn’t instantly surrender.

My take is that the West should have been a damned sight more belligerent in 2014, preferably before in fact, then the people of Ukraine wouldn’t be getting slaughtered right now.

Letting Putin push and push with no meaningful deterrent has lead us directly to where we are now.

Forceful retribution is the only “morality” this “man” knows. He has no self imposed limitations, so the world could have and now must impose them on him.

Plenty have, and continue to be objective.

You seem to flounce out when you don’t get your way or others disagree with you, you also have a habit of taking what others say and pulling insults out of thin air.

You’re very much the example of fragile male pride right now.

And that’s me out. Clearly no one here is interested in looking at this clusterf*** of a situation from a humanistic or objective viewpoint. War is bandwagon we’re not allowed to not jump on, and anyone who doesn’t is a coward or some other pathetic insult.

so I think we can assume he intended to do exactly that.

Or he expected to get the resistance he got? Seeing as that’s what happened is that not the likeliest explanation? No doubt I’ll be called an apologist or something for that point but it’s the most likely explanation for an army taking body bags to a war. Also from what I read the crematorium was for dead Russian troops to prevent the negative PR of coffins being shipped back to Russia.

My take is that the West should have been a damned sight more belligerent in 2014,

More belligerent than US politicians and CIA agents travelling to Kyiv to organise a replacement government once the existing one had been deposed?

Truly horrible. But quite revealing: so it was not and is not about Nato? It is instead about eliminating the existence of Ukraine? Those in the West who blame the mess on the US because of Nato enlargement should please take note. This is pure fascism. Nothing else. https://t.co/0A7X5xNTv2

— Wolfgang Ischinger (@ischinger) April 4, 2022

pulling insults out of thin air.

I haven’t insulted anyone. I may have been direct in response to some arguments I think are stupid, but I’ve not directed a single thing at anyone personally. I’ve been on the receiving end of many though for speaking my mind. I’ll be reporting anything directed at me personally though from now on.

there’s no certainty that if Ukraine had rolled over that Putin would have gone on an unhinged rampage.

This is looking desperately naive now
Putins has spent years conditioning the Russians to view ukranians as subhuman

These atrocities were inevitable

Seeming likelier Russian forces may have committed horrible crimes against civilians anywhere they occupied.

A harrowing story from southern Ukraine – the other end of the country from Bucha – by @ikhurshudyanhttps://t.co/DOj496XvQn

— max seddon (@maxseddon) April 4, 2022

Perhaps the word “encroaching” is the wrong in usage, invasion is the right word (should have used that word instead). Non of your examples actually tested multipolar power or warrant invading a country.

Really? It’s April 2022 and we still haven’t had an inquiry into the Sailisbury attack.

Therefore, are you advocating preemptive strike or getting NATO to take action on Russian soil or to impose a no fly zone in Ukraine? Wonder why NATO has not done so if they think Putin/Russia is just a paper tiger? After all they have plenty of time since 2014.

For the record, I like everyone else in this thread am shocked and appalled that in 2022 a nation may commit horrific war crimes on this scale. I don’t believe that Putin will be persuaded not to do really shitty things by appeasement, but I do believe that we have a duty to impose wide ranging economic sanctions on Russia and to stop buying Russian fossil fuels

If we choose to do nothing so as to avoid the possibility of inflating the cost of our chippy teas then Putin will likely not stop at Ukraine. We’re out of “good” options, but with international cooperation and an end to dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels we may yet be able to economically isolate Russia. As an aside, I’m also not at all sure that Navalny deserves being lauded in the west either.

My take is that the West should have been a damned sight more belligerent in 2014, preferably before in fact, then the people of Ukraine wouldn’t be getting slaughtered right now.

^This.

Wonder why NATO has not done so if they think Putin/Russia is just a paper tiger? After all they have plenty of time since 2014.

I wonder why indeed. Good job that here in the UK we haven’t seen much evidence of Russian political interference, eh?

dazh
Full Member
My take is that the West should have been a damned sight more belligerent in 2014,

More belligerent than US politicians and CIA agents travelling to Kyiv to organise a replacement government once the existing one had been deposed?

Honesty daz, you can be a real factual butterfly but I’ll answer anyway (though, as you fail to point out, the only “deposing” being done was at an election box)… absolutely, yes.

We should have been more belligerent. At this point I think you are possibly in a tiny minority in believing Putin has any self imposed restraint whatsoever.

Part of me really would like to know your completely unedited thoughts on this war and Putin as I suspect many of us would be genuinely shocked. That’s entirely rhetorical as you have repeatedly hinted at them all through this thread.

Frankly I’ll never understand your stance and I’m really glad I never will.

I think your intentions are good (no sarcasm in that at all) but would result in an even more fragile world than the one we already inhabit if given free reign. It takes no account of the fact that evolution can occasionally throw up the likes of a Putin.

Tbf dazh hasn’t really insulted anyone, even at the start when he was insisisting that Russia definitely wouldn’t invade

@dyna-ti on the other hand got a bit abusive, but has gone very quiet after having spent the beginning of of this thread shooting down anyone who said that Russia might invade

This is looking desperately naive

Ok fine I’m naive. Given I’m already horrifically pessimistic about the outcome of all this it means any residual optimism or hope that this can be de-escalated is for the birds. Happy now?

At this point I think you are possibly in a tiny minority in believing Putin has any self imposed restraint whatsoever.

I think the opposite. Either I’m not making myself clear or you’re not reading my posts properly.

Part of me really would like to know your completely unedited thoughts on this war

Why do you think I’m holding anything back? I’m anti-war. That’s it. There’s really nothing more to it than that I’m afraid.

I’d normally be happy to expand on it but it’ll just result in more abuse so you can forgive me for maybe not saying more. This thread isn’t a place where where anti-war views are tolerated.

Why do you think I’m holding anything back? I’m anti-war. That’s it. There’s really nothing more to it than that I’m afraid.

I’m anti-war too, in the case of Putin and his atrocities in Ukraine, I believe that there are other options available to make the point that Putin’s actions are wholly unacceptable that we’re being far too slow to enact.

all this it means any residual optimism or hope that this can be de-escalated is for the birds. Happy now?

Not happy at all, after the crimes exposed in Bucha there’s no way ukranians will willingly concede (based on a ukranian former colleagues Facebook posts it was never an option)

This is just the tip of the iceberg, there will be more and worse crimes exposed in the regions Russia have abandoned today around Cherniv etc

And the war in the South & East will be brutal

And the war in the South & East will be brutal

It’ll be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen when NATO is dragged into it. And they will be dragged into it. The drum is already beating.

@dazh – our options would appear to be:

a) Do nothing
b) Render economic and military materiel aid to Ukraine and/or impose embargoes of Russian oil & gas

I understand the strength of your humanitarian sentiment but I suspect that your view errs towards b instead of a?

Really? It’s April 2022 and we still haven’t had an inquiry into the Sailisbury attack.

That’s a political assassination Not invading a nation. It happened a lot during the cold war. Similarly the Saudi journalist was also assassinated on UK soil but nobody is declaring war on Saudi or sanction them.

… but I do believe that we have a duty to impose wide ranging economic sanctions on Russia and to stop buying Russian fossil fuels

France and Germany are still buying but not paying in Rubles if I can recall the news.

We’re out of “good” options, but with international cooperation and an end to dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels we may yet be able to economically isolate Russia.

There are no more options.

^This.

Same outcome.

I wonder why indeed. Good job that here in the UK we haven’t seen much evidence of Russian political interference, eh?

Multipolar power politics. They work both ways.

Not happy at all, after the crimes exposed in Bucha there’s no way ukranians will willingly concede

They have to.

It’ll be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen when NATO is dragged into it. And they will be dragged into it. The drum is already beating.

I take comfort from your track record of similarly strident predictions.

Similarly the Saudi journalist was also assassinated on UK soil but nobody is declaring war on Saudi or sanction them.

Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, not in Salisbury using an actual WMD that has killed a UK citizen on UK soil.

Multipolar power politics. They work both ways.

I’m done with the non-sequiturs thanks.

Here’s a realist view:
Ukraine is not going to surrender. They know what the consequences would be so they would rather fight to the death.

NATO is not going to enter combat. That includes no-fly-zones, etc. However, they are currently supplying weapons and will continue to do so.

Russia has not escalated the conflict to attacking NATO despite NATO supplying weapons (and, quite obviously, operational intelligence about Russian deployments, etc.) The NATO supplied weapons and training have allowed Ukraine to gain a military advantage in many areas.

Russia is not going to respect any treaty that provides for Ukraine being an independent liberal democracy unless it’s backed up by a Ukrainian military powerful enough to repel any future Russian invasion. Russia started this war to prevent that, there’s no way they will suddenly decide to accept it now. Russia might use a treaty like that to rearm, but they would only sign that as a ploy to buy time to rearm, not as an acceptance of Ukraine as an independent nation.

Given that Ukraine isn’t going to surrender, the quickest way to bring this to an end is to provide sufficient weapons and support to Ukraine to drive Russian forces out of Ukraine. This might mean a return to the “frozen conflict” situation rather than a peace treaty, with Russia occupying Crimea and Donbass, but that’s realistically probably the best that Ukraine can hope for. Russia is not going to sign a permanent peace treaty and accept an international military force to enforce it.

Calling for Ukraine to surrender, calling on NATO to stop supplying weapons, etc. is not a realist position. Ukraine is not going to surrender, NATO is not going to stop supplying weapons, and Russia is not going to respect a “neutral” Ukraine. Those are all fantasies. Fantasies aren’t part of the realist’s world. Realistically, the genocide will only stop when Ukraine repels the Russians. NATO weapons will make that happen faster.

but I suspect that your view errs towards b instead of a?

I’ve already said we should cut off all economic activity with Russia. As should all other western countries. We should also threaten sanctions against other countries who still trade with Russia. India and China mainly. If capitalism has one benefit it’s that the west has enormous economic power. We should use it. It’ll be far more effective than supplying a few tanks to Ukraine. But it will hurt, a lot, and we’re going to need to be pragmatic to mitigate the economic impact.

our options would appear to be:

a) Do nothing
b) Render economic and military materiel aid to Ukraine and/or impose embargoes of Russian oil & gas

I understand the strength of your humanitarian sentiment but I suspect that your view errs towards b instead of a?

a = Not enough. Talk to Putin/Russia to negotiate no more killings. Surrender/negotiate or whatever Russia’s conditions are.

b = Punitive actions that doe not solve the problem as it is now.

Most importantly there need to be C to simply write down a few simple words ” Ukraine will NOT be a NATO member.

I’m done with the non-sequiturs thanks.

Are you advocating NATO involvement? Otherwise you run out of options.

Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, not in Salisbury using an actual WMD that has killed a UK citizen on UK soil.

NATO member – Turkish soil. Does that count?

Ukraine is not going to surrender. They know what the consequences would be so they would rather fight to the death.

Hence, they need to negotiate to preserve life of ordinary people. Their govt will probably be exiled.

a = Not enough. Talk to Putin/Russia to negotiate no more killings.

I wasn’t talking to you, I was replying to dazh.

Are you advocating NATO involvement?

You’ve already quoted from a post where I state unequivocally that I believe that there are options available that aren’t specifically a NATO military operation.

I’m done with the non-sequiturs thanks.

Once again, if you are going to reply to me on this forum I would very much appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of refraining from deploying the Chewbacca Defence and perhaps supply some actual citations that might support your opinions when replying to me.

Once again, if you are going to reply to me on this forum I would very much appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of refraining from deploying the Chewbacca Defence and perhaps supply some actual citations that might support your opinions when replying to me.

I shall leave you to your views.