Ukraine

You can see the confirmed Russian losses on this site:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Russia inherited thousands upon thousands of tanks etc. from the Soviet Union. Some of that stuff has been upgraded and they’ve built some new stuff, but I doubt anyone has an accurate count of how much of it is actually serviceable, even the Russians. Their entire system is plagued by corruption and incompetence so what their maintenance records show is probably just made up numbers. They will be able to have some tank shaped objects to deliver up to the front lines, but whether they have modern sensors and armour is another question. Also, whether they have trucks to deliver fuel and ammo is probably more of an immediate concern for them than tanks.

Russia has lots of tanks, but a lot of them are old and rubbish, as is being seen now. What’s being iøllustrated now is that while on paper Russia has lots of stuff, in reality a lot of it is rubish, and the tactics, organisation of units and training are very substandard. This is especially true with aircraft. Apparently on paper Russia has amazing SAM’s , best in the world, but in reality, as in Syria they’re not very good. They have super aircraft, but in reality, can’t get air superiority, and lack of training means they can’t do ground support, especially if people shoot back. They have amazing tanks, apparently, but how many Armata – 50 delivered.? And if crappy organisation and logistics mean they have no fuel or ammo??
Corruption is also an issue – the government pay for one thing, the quality delivered is something rather different.

In reality , versus Nato, Russia will suffer horribly as they will get thrashed in the air, and that leads to a thrashing on the the ground. Remember Hitler and his praying for salvation from a miracle weapon . when you hear about the Russians launching ‘hypersonic missiles’ from a Mig 31, that’s rather equivalent

If all things kick off we will all be regretting for a very long time

We’ll be regetting it for as long as it takes for food stores to run out and then however it takes for us to starve to death. So not very long at all, probably 6-12 months?

According to @IISS_org Military Balance the Russian Army has 2,927 Main Battle Tanks in service.

According to @oryxspioenkop there is video/picture evidence of Russia losing 318 in Ukraine (this number is likely under reported).

11% of Russia’s active MBTs gone in a month.

— Luke Coffey (@LukeDCoffey) March 29, 2022

Russia has lots of tanks, but a lot of them are old and rubbish, as is being seen now.

That perfect square, outlined in red is the welded hull portion that houses the terminal side suspension arm & torsion bar, and torsion bar base for opposite side suspension arm. This is an unbelievable separation. ZERO quality. It only *looked* like a weld.

— Osgüd Schläuter (@The_Tech_Son) March 29, 2022

Though never successfully?

Yes and no. Whilst it’s true that they’ve never (so far as I know) been defeated and occupied by an invading force, they lost the Crimean war and their naval presence in ice-free waters. The cold war saw them lose much of their western territory, since the USSR/ Warsaw pact was essentially an enlarged Russian empire. Don’t forget that most of the Russian population is in Europe so inevitably they consider perceived threats from the west.

Sometimes I get the impression that chewkw is simply trying to give the perspective of the Russian state (i.e. Putin, or at least it seems that way at this point) but the way he puts it certainly gives the impression that he buys into that perspective.

If Russia wanted to keep Ukraine within its “sphere of influence” it should have tried harder to make it seem like an enticing prospect rather than screeching a demand that it do so and sending in the army when Ukraine declines.

Sometimes I get the impression that chewkw is simply trying to give the perspective of the Russian state

Seems to me he’s an advocate for authoritarian regimes, which is a refreshing perspective but I’d not want live or be influenced by one.

Though never successfully?

Irony being that they should be most worried about what’s coming from the east if its history setting the precedent.

The big question is does our forumite who shall not be named think Putin is a Zombie Maggot or not?

Sometimes I get the impression that chewkw is simply trying to give the perspective of the Russian state

In chewkw’s defence he has stated that quite clearly on more than one occasion. Though admittedly through the lens of someone from the Far East where there are ample examples of strong man politics.

Germany completed defeated Russia in World War One.

Despite the hype, the Soviet victory in WW2, was only achieved with unbelievable losses. It would of been unacceptable or impossible for any other nation.

They lost 45,000 T-34’s alone. Something like 150,000 AFV’s in total.

Russian army introduces vehicles Ukrainian farmers don't want pic.twitter.com/xqrwTRk4Sf

— Sputnik (@Sputnik_Not) March 28, 2022

Despite the hype, the Soviet victory in WW2, was only achieved with unbelievable losses. It would of been unacceptable or impossible for any other nation.

They lost 45,000 T-34’s alone. Something like 150,000 AFV’s in total.

Not forgetting the huge amount of lend-lease and equipment that enabled them.
But when it comes down to it, the individual is cannon fodder for such regimes.

Sometimes I get the impression that chewkw is simply trying to give the perspective of the Russian state

He clearly is. From his point of view we’re all Western as hell and we clearly have no idea of how things work in other parts of the world.

Doesn’t seem too keen on the point of view of the Ukrainian people though.

When everyone in the room is expounding the same points why join in? Surely the view that’s not being discussed is the one that needs bringing up?

Are you all unable to distinguish between explaining a point of view and supporting it?

Doesn’t seem too keen on the point of view of the Ukrainian people though.

Exactly.

Surely the view that’s not being discussed is the one that needs bringing up?

There’s a whole lot of views that haven’t been discussed on here. For example, we haven’t had anyone explain Hitler’s view that the German’s were stabbed in the back and had the right to invade other countries. If you really believe that views that haven’t been discussed need to be raised, why not start there? (Clue: some viewpoints are flat out wrong. Hitler’s views were wrong, that’s why nobody intelligent tries to “explain” them. Same goes for Putin – he’s flat out in the wrong here and trying to explain why he’s misunderstood is something no sensible person would get into.)

For example, we haven’t had anyone explain Hitler’s view that the German’s were stabbed in the back and had the right to invade other countries.

That view has been explained a great deal over the years. It’s wrong, obviously, but that’s what he was thinking and it’s crucial to understand that.

Again – explaining and understanding isn’t the same as condoning or agreeing with.

trying to explain why he’s misunderstood is something no sensible person would get into

That’s not what’s happening. Chewkw is trying to explain how he thinks Putin is thinking, which is vitally important. This is not the same as supporting it!!

Same goes for Putin – he’s flat out in the wrong here

Absolutely 100%. All I’m saying is there are some geographical and historical reasons why Russia fears the west.

Clue: some viewpoints are flat out wrong. Hitler’s views were wrong, that’s why nobody intelligent tries to “explain” them.

Whilst wrong intelligent people did pay attention to them and tried to figure out how to negate them. Hence why in WWII there was the unconditional surrender strategy to try and avoid the entire cycle repeating again.
That said I think the uncritical repeating of them doesnt add anything especially when its linked to the claims about Nato expansion missing that its countries which ask to join.

That’s not what’s happening. Chewkw is trying to explain how he thinks Putin is thinking, which is vitally important. This is not the same as supporting it!!

He’s gone a lot further than that. He keeps saying that he thinks the Ukrainians should surrender in order to end the war. That’s basically just endorsing the view that Ukraine is not a legitimate country and has no right to exist. That’s Putin’s view, so he’s endorsing Putin’s world view, not trying to explain it.

historical reasons why Russia fears the west.

the biggest one of course being the rise of liberal democracies. The west hasn’t presented even an abstract threat to Russia since the Cold War ended. I think the only explanation that the anti anti-putins apologists can come up with is that the institutions of the west present an existential threat to Putins notion of an historical Russia.

it’s still not a reason to invade another country though

He keeps saying that he thinks the Ukrainians should surrender in order to end the war. That’s basically just endorsing the view that Ukraine is not a legitimate country and has no right to exist

No, it’s not ‘basically’ doing that. It’s pacifism, a perfectly rational world view that places human life above politics. You can say that it’s wrong that Putin wants to take over Ukraine whilst also thinking it’s not worth thousands of deaths to prevent.

I don’t like this interpolation that goes on on internet threads – as if you are actively looking for a reason to kick off against someone like some kind of tabloid newspaper. That’s a Bush-ist ‘with or us or against us’ idea, and it stinks.

No, it’s not ‘basically’ doing that. It’s pacifism, a perfectly rational world view that places human life above politics. You can say that it’s wrong that Putin wants to take over Ukraine whilst also thinking it’s not worth thousands of deaths to prevent.

The above is the same thinking that a few countries had in WW2, but in the same manner, if Ukraine were to surrender, Russia were then to put in the puppet government and basically police the area, how many thousands, or even millions do you think might ‘disappear’?

I’m not justifying it. I’m explaining it….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60912754 – UK seizes first superyacht in British waters.

Is it just me or has that most definitely got a face?

the biggest one of course being the rise of liberal democracies. The west hasn’t presented even an abstract threat to Russia since the Cold War ended. I think the only explanation that the anti anti-putins apologists can come up with is that the institutions of the west present an existential threat to Putins notion of an historical Russia.

Yes, I think liberal democracies along Russia’s western border are antithetical to that notion, and probably other romanticised notions of historical strong leaders (Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Stalin)

No, it’s not ‘basically’ doing that. It’s pacifism,

Blaming the crimes of a murderous tyrant on NATO is not pacifism. A pacifist would blame the war and the war crimes on Putin (i.e. the guy who is actually doing the war criming).

Blaming the crimes of a murderous tyrant on NATO is not pacifism.

I don’t think that’s what he was doing.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1508787566711128065?s=20&t=oTrnqD8VsnSOke122CmFVQ

Seems the talks have led to a) agreement to back off forces around most areas not in the east of the country and b) pathway to Zelensky and Putin actually meeting…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60890199

Please tell me that Zelensky will wipe the floor with PooTin on the PR and tactical front, and in front of the worlds cameras.

Hopefully Zelensky can give Putin a gift of his favourite novichok covered door handle.

Yes, I think liberal democracies along Russia’s western border are antithetical to that notion,

They are definitely a threat to his regime. You dont really want your people looking across the border and asking why are those people looking a lot happier and better off than us.

Please tell me that Zelensky will wipe the floor with PooTin on the PR and tactical front, and in front of the worlds cameras.

I dont know about that. His style might be cramped by the full NBC suit that, if I were him, I would be wearing before getting anywhere close to Putin.

Maybe that’s what he’s afraid of. Domestic propoganda would have to create a whole deepfake version just to air it and they’re still running windows XP

PJM1974
I commented at the beginning of this thread that I did not want to interact with Chewkw in any way – this sums up why:
FTFY. He’s just uncritically repeating Putin’s claims.

Be open minded as all perspectives are valid coz that’s how I view things anyway. Yes, I see things very differently to “most” perhaps in a “realist” perspective. You have your own perspectives on things which is good to know (general reference to other threads), but that does not mean we have to agree. Clash of perspectives is normal.

Chewkw has a habit of repeatedly parroting what he’s heard on Fox News or read on Breitbart and conflating with reality.

I don’t watch American news etc but only BBC and Channel 4 (occasionally ITV) News or perhaps other far east news, which have their own interpretation but certainly not the same. I am just interested in the way the nuclear nations decide and negotiate their way around as the stake is high.

Doesn’t matter whether Ukraine is or is not a real country. Putin/Russia does NOT tolerate NATO in Ukraine and Ukraine has to realise that. This is the red line and Putin/Russia is fighting for their way of life.

That’s a direct quote. Seems clear to me that Chewkw is posting from a position of doubt.

From his point of view we’re all Western as hell and we clearly have no idea of how things work in other parts of the world.

Which is a very valid point – we have a very Liberal Western western world view. Doesn’t matter if chewkv agrees with it or not, he puts forward an alternative view. His earlier posts pointing out that Putin needs something out of this to “save face” before he can pull back is very true.

Be open minded as all perspectives are valid

They are not. For example, NAZI perspectives have no validity. You can’t claim to be a pacifist and say all perspectives are valid because you are acknowledging anti-pacifist perspectives as valid. And you cannot argue that NATO is to blame and also argue that pro-NATO perspectives are valid. That whole relativism thing is just lazy nonsense.

They are not. For example, NAZI perspectives have no validity. You can’t claim to be a pacifist and say all perspectives are valid because you are acknowledging anti-pacifist perspectives as valid. And you cannot argue that NATO is to blame and also argue that pro-NATO perspectives are valid. That whole relativism thing is just lazy nonsense.

I am saying that they exist but we don’t have to agree with them regardless of whether they are right or left, right or wrong etc.

Pacifist or anti-pacifist is irrelevant when nuclear powers are engaged in a bit of confrontation. Once nuclear war starts ALL will regret. We are not there yet but we are slowly heading in that direction if not careful.