Ukraine

Putin reacted not when Ukraine talked about NATO membership but when they talk about EU membership, happened in 2004 after the orange revolution when Russia tried (& failed) to rig the election because he didn’t want pro EU Yukashenko to win, happened again when Yukashenko actually moved them toward EU membership and Putin had him poisoned.

And then when Yanukovich became president and tried to pivot away from the EU, Putin was so outraged at the euro maiden revolution that he invaded Donetsk & Luhansk

Putin sees Ukraine as a province of Russia, he couldn’t stand the thought of it getting all the benefits and freedoms of EU membership

The NATO line is just propaganda for the easily led
Its parts of ‘his Russia’ as prosperous free democracies in the EU he fears

NATO did not “chip away” at anything. Countries asked to join NATO. That’s because they were afraid of Russia because of its long history of barbaric treatment of its neighbours.

Of course they have to be afraid of Russia coz they have nukes, but Russia let them go as they are not strategically important and could easily be nuked.

Yes, NATO (EU as well) is chipping away to the east and if they have some respect for Russia they would not have done that.

Doesn’t matter now coz that’s history. Now it is a matter of how to not escalate the war/conflict/special operation whatever further.

We will only learn when it is too late and when many are vaporised, those who survive will starve and regret but that’s too late.

At the moment we are slowly moving towards a nuclear war if NATO/EU does not back off.

The key thing that Putin said is that he doesn’t believe Ukraine is a real country, he thinks it’s part of Russia. What enraged him was that Ukrainian’s turned away from Russia and wanted closer ties with the EU. This happened because most Ukrainians do not want to be part of a gangster state.

Doesn’t matter whether Ukraine is or is not a real country. Putin/Russia does NOT tolerate NATO in Ukraine and Ukraine has to realise that. This is the red line and Putin/Russia is fighting for their way of life.

he NATO line is just propaganda for the easily led

A very simple fact. Ukraine has no say in this matter. They are better off being “neutral”. Even pretending to be siding Russia is better than totally flatten.

If EU is foolish enough to provoke the matter further they will have a rude awakening when the real war starts with NATO and Russia. Unlike all the previous wars, this will truly be a devastating war which I hope I don’t have to witness.

But judging from some of the arguments regarding 19th and 20th century people, it looks someone will have to learn the lesson very hard with no return.

If Ukraine is “not a country”, why doesn’t Putin bring this up at the UN? Where does this annihilation of independent countries, and their right to sign up to international organisations as a free state, begin and end? Why can Ukraine be an UN country, but not join up to any other transnational body?

At the moment we are slowly moving towards a nuclear war if NATO/EU does not back off.

Back off to where? Should RF also back off? You’re a bit one sided with this.

They are better off being “neutral”.

Neutral in what way? Sweden and Finland don’t describe themselves as neutral countries any more. If you’re talking nuclear armament, or aggressive military capability, then that’s fair enough, but if you mean bunker down and don’t form trading and political relationships with any country to the West of it… that’s a slow death instead of a fast death if Ukraine is forced down that path. Especially if the routes South are cut off as part of “New Russia” in a land grab deal.

Back off to where? You’re a bit one sided with this.

Tell Russia that Ukraine will not become part of Russia and concede the negotiation. Yes, that sounds like NATO’s ego taking a knock but think of it this way. What not cut the loss? Unless you are suggesting that NATO’s ego is so strong that they Must win? If so then be prepared to fight to the end which I foresee only very few standing and even that no one is winning because both sides will be so damage they are starving.

Neutral in what way? Sweden and Finland don’t describe themselves as neutral countries any more.

They are not NATO member yet and besides they are not as strategic as Ukraine.

That doesn’t answer my questions.

If Ukraine isn’t a country, why is Putin not concerned about their membership of the UN (a founding member no less)?

Where should the EU back off to? What does that mean?

Where should NATO back off to? What does that mean?

When you say “neutral”, what do you mean? And which country could that be modelled on?

Your replies might make more a sense if NATO and/or the EU had gone to war with Russia, even if in defence of Ukraine. They haven’t. Russia has invaded Ukraine (again) and that invasion is being resisted by the people of that country.

That doesn’t answer my questions.

All western logic or perspectives or laws etc does not apply.
Russia will hammer Ukraine into submission whether they like it or not.
Russia will apply force to make Ukraine submit.
Ukraine is to be subservient to Russia/Putin.
Ukraine has No say whatsoever and must agree.
This is a nuclear power nation beating the neigbour blue black into submission.

This is No domestic politics.

This is real.

And what is it you want NATO and the EU to do? Make Ukraine surrender? Not mobilise troops in countries that border Ukraine to defend them in case they might be next?

Where do you want them to back off to?

Ukraine is to be subservient to Russia/Putin.

Is that your answer to what being a “neutral” country means for Ukraine?

And what is it you want NATO and the EU do?

NATO/EU should ask what Russia wants and give them. i.e. Russian’s condition.
Ukraine will object but then they are in a tight spot they can hardly get out.
I am sure Russia will comply (stop) and let the people rebuild.
Russia is Not going to expand West put it this way.

Make Ukraine surrender? Not mobilise troops in countries that border Ukraine to defend them in case they might be next?

Yes, Ukraine needs to surrender. i.e. dismantle their defense / arm forces infrastructure.
Countries border Ukraine can arm themselves to the hilt so long as the buffer zone is not crossed.

Then we can all live another day in this life a bit longer until the next mother of all wars.

Where do you want them to back off to?

No more NATO along Russia boarder unless with Russia’s consent.

Is that your answer to what being a “neutral” country means for Ukraine?

Not to join NATO forever.
No arm forces infrastructure.

No more NATO along Russia boarder unless with Russia’s consent.

Back to this again… NATO has always bordered Russia. What you are asking for is that European countries should disarm, which is now the furthest thing from the mind of any country bordering Russia or Belarus.

And again, you’re very one sided on this. Russia can have troops up to the border of other countries (and even invade them) but you’re all about how the rest of Europe must lay down its defences and lay on a welcoming buffet?!?

Back to this again… NATO has always bordered Russia. What you are asking for is that European countries should disarm, which is now the furthest thing from the mind of any country bordering Russia or Belarus.

Yes, some of the smaller NATO nations are but Ukraine is not the same.

Ukraine is of strategic importance to Russia and NATO/EU knows that but just pretend not to know.

And again, you’re very one sided on this. Russia can have troops up the to border of other countries (and even invade them) but you’re all about how the test of Europe must lay down it’s defences and lay on a welcoming buffet?!?

Of course it is one sided because you need to have one side stand down otherwise you will have a full nuclear war.

If NATO/EU does a preemptive strike even with a conventional weapon, all sides will be in deep poo poo. No one will come out claiming victory other than feeling regret.

How do you want NATO and/or the EU to “stand down”? They haven’t engaged, haven’t invaded, haven’t even threatened to.

You are arguing for the abandonment of defence as a response to the threat of invasion. The opposite will happen. European countries will now take the threat from Russia more seriously, and will, sadly, have to increase their spending and attention on military defence. It’s all a big step backwards, instigated by one man.

How do you want NATO and/or the EU to “stand down”? They haven’t engaged, haven’t invaded, haven’t even threatened to.

Ukraine needs to stand down.
NATO/EU stops the arms supply.

You are arguing for the abandonment of defence as a response to the threat of invasion. The opposite will happen. European countries will now take the threat form Russia more seriously, and will, sadly, increase their spending and attention on military defence.

For a start Ukraine stand down then take it from there to deescalate.
As far as past evidence is concerned Russia has not invaded a single NATO nation. Will never because they (Russia) will be defeated and they know that.

NATO/EU should ask what Russia wants and give them. i.e. Russian’s condition.
Ukraine will object but then they are in a tight spot they can hardly get out.

OK, say this happens, Putin gets Ukraine, either as part of Russia or as a puppet state or whatever.
Then he decides that he would quite Poland too
NATO/EU should ask what Russia wants and give them. i.e. Russian’s condition.
Poland will object but then they are in a tight spot they can hardly get out.
Then he decides that he want East Germany….
.
This is the problem with appeasement.
With hindsight we should have done what we are doing now in terms of sanctions and supplying weapons when he invaded Crimea, but it’s too late for that now we are where we are. A line has to be drawn somewhere.
It’s all very well saying give him what he wants but the people in Lithuania and Latvia sound much less keen on that idea!

Then he decides that he would quite Poland too
NATO/EU should ask what Russia wants and give them. i.e. Russian’s condition.
Poland will object but then they are in a tight spot they can hardly get out.
Then he decides that he want East Germany….

No, as far as I know I do not see that happening. Will Not happen unless provoke.
Russia has no capacity nor ability to full scale invasion nor are they silly enough to trigger a nuclear war because of Poland and they know it. Putin/Russia is not that foolish.

This is the problem with appeasement.
With hindsight we should have done what we are doing now in terms of sanctions and supplying weapons when he invaded Crimea, but it’s too late for that now we are where we are. A line has to be drawn somewhere.

In hindsight US should not even arm Ukraine (Trump actually supplied arms to Ukraine according to some sources). Ukraine should Not even be encouraged at all.

It’s all very well saying give him what he wants but the people in Lithuania and Latvia sound much less keen on that idea!

Small countries and not really a strategic importance, hence Russia/Putin let them go.

No, as far as I know I do not see that happening. Will Not happen unless provoke.
Russia has no capacity nor ability to full scale invasion nor are they silly enough to trigger a nuclear war because of Poland and they know it. Putin/Russia is not that foolish

What hes doing in Ukraine wasn’t provoked either. Yes, I know he’s coming up with all sorts of ‘justifications’ about NATO expansion and Nazis and god knows what else but they are just for public consumption, Putin knows as well as anyone (who isn’t being fed a diet solely consisting of Russian state media) that it was totally unprovoked, but he obviously can’t say that, he needs a justification for his land grab
And Putin won’t need a big army to take another country if we let him have Ukraine, all that shows is that he needs to threaten nuclear war and he gets his own way. We then either let him have whatever he wants or we call his bluff.
I am not in Ukraine and so it’s pretty easy for me to say, but Ukraine has to be the place where a stand is made. Its too little too late but not drawing a line here is much, much worse.

At the moment we are slowly moving towards a nuclear war if NATO/EU does not back off.

NATO and the EU are not in the war, it’s between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a nation and the Ukrainians are not going to disarm and surrender.

NATO, the EU, and Ukraine did not start this, they did not attack Russia. Russia attacked Ukraine. The only country that needs to back off is Russia. What sort of twisted logic leads you to believe that the responsibility to end this rests with the victim of aggression?

What hes doing in Ukraine wasn’t provoked either.

Ukraine is a strategic importance.

And Putin won’t need a big army to take another country if we let him have Ukraine, all that shows is that he needs to threaten nuclear war and he gets his own way. We then either let him have whatever he wants or we call his bluff.

No, Putin is not that foolish to trigger such war nor does he want Poland (already in NATO).

I am not in Ukraine and so it’s pretty easy for me to say, but Ukraine has to be the place where a stand is made. Its too little too late but not drawing a line here is much, much worse.

Yes, taking a stand is the right thing to do but in this case Ukraine is standing on Russian/Putin’s foot. Yes, take a stand but not standing on others foot.

NATO and the EU are not in the war, it’s between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a nation and the Ukrainians are not going to disarm and surrender.

Ukraine is Not going to survive. Better to become a puppet state than no place to call home.

NATO, the EU, and Ukraine did not start this, they did not attack Russia. Russia attacked Ukraine. The only country that needs to back off is Russia. What sort of twisted logic leads you to believe that the responsibility to end this rests with the victim of aggression?

Doesn’t matter whether Ukraine started this or not. Living next to a nuclear power means they need to consider the views of the nuclear power before deciding.

 (Trump actually supplied arms to Ukraine according to some sources).

IIRC the US did supply some weapons early in Trump’s term but then stopped later on when they refused to frame Joe Biden’s son for corruption.
[Edit] Wikipedia appears to know more than I do on the subject https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal

IIRC the US did supply some weapons early in Trump’s term but then stopped later on when they refused to frame Joe Biden’s son for corruption.

Yes, big mistake (Probably advice from the Blob) which gives Ukraine the impression someone is coming to help them. Now, they are in dilemma.

Ukraine is standing on Russian/Putin’s foot.

This is utter nonsense. Ukraine did absolutely nothing to provoke Russia apart from trying to be a liberal democracy. What you’re saying isn’t even that Ukraine spilled Russia’s pint, it’s more like they refused to buy Russia a pint so Russia decided to pummel the life out of them. And you think that’s justified? Why on earth do you twist yourself into such knots trying to justify the actions of a murderous tyrant?

This is utter nonsense. Ukraine did absolutely nothing to provoke Russia apart from trying to be a liberal democracy. What you’re saying isn’t even that Ukraine spilled Russia’s pint, it’s more like they refused to buy Russia a pint so Russia decided to pummel the life out of them. And you think that’s justified? Why on earth do you twist yourself into such knots trying to justify the actions of a murderous tyrant?

Just showing the intention to join NATO is a good enough existential threat to Russia.
I am just viewing it from Russian’s perspective as this is no ordinary politics.
Justification or not does not even come into the equation at all, because a nuclear power is threaten and that is not good.
Also I am not trying to twist anyone’s arm but to let people know the world is walking into a huge mistake or disaster if situation escalate.
If all things kick off we will all be regretting for a very long time as this is a war with no winners but full of regrets which is too late.
If the nuclear war starts there will be no goodies or baddies because those who survive will be starving.

Also notice the effect of sanctions? Funny thing is that we are feeling it as well.

Just showing the intention to join NATO is a good enough existential threat to Russia. I am just viewing it from Russian’s perspective as this is no ordinary politics.

There was no existential threat to Russia. That’s just nonsense that Russia trots out to justify invading other countries.

Can we stop going round and round on NATO/Russia – it’s been done previously on this thread. Keep this discussion for updates/information etc

There is no existential threat to Russia. There is a definite threat to Putin’s regime and popularity at home. He knows if public discourse turns against him enough someone might pop him off. His popularity has naturally increased due to this war. It seems one of the most naturally catastrophic aspects of human nature that when the big chief decides war, everyone gets behind him regardless. We are merely looking at domestic politics being played out in geopolitical processes. I think Putin has actually hastened his end as the west will not stop now in marginalising both Putin and Russia until he goes. It probably won’t be next week or month but Russians, particularly richer ones really love their new found lifestyles and will likely work to get them back.

Chewk you are not arguing from Russia’s perspective

You are arguing from the perspective of Putins made up narrative, that he’s using to justify his latest land grab

I think what Chewkw is trying to say is that whilst there wasn’t an existential threat, Putin thought there was, which was enough apparently.

I think what Chewkw is trying to say is that whilst there wasn’t an existential threat, Putin thought said there was, which was enough apparently.

FTFY. He’s just uncritically repeating Putin’s claims.

I think what Chewkw is trying to say is that whilst there wasn’t an existential threat, Putin thought there was, which was enough apparently.

Although there is seemingly a deep rooted fear of invasion from the West in Moscow, I think this regimes “fear of threat” is different in the Putin has framed himself as the defender of Russia from that threat, regardless of that threat not being real (except perhaps in retaliation). Combine that with long standing Imperialist ambitions and you have enough for Putin to invade.

A “good” reason doesn’t really have anything to do with it. And no, that doesn’t justify sacrificing countries to pander to a regimes desire for domestic control and Imperial ambitions.

I think what Chewkw is trying to say is

He’s got a hard on for “strong” leaders?

Last English “strongman” was Cromwell and he was a mass murderer too.

So, educated, wealthy people can evade the draft by bribing someone to issue some sort of certificate about technical skills but poor kids get sent out as cannon fodder. I have a feeling this won’t actually persuade anyone with real tech skills to stay in Russia.

Russian government has granted a waiver from army service to all tech experts of draft age. An attempt to stop mass flight triggered by war in Ukraine. Source: KP.

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) March 29, 2022

Reading this last page or two is depressing, NATO have done nothing wrong, bar countering Russia’s recent aggression and being a bit slow with responses, Ukraine is a country with a population of 45 million, they are not some little provincial area of Russia, they have decided their own fate for a generation now, and are fighting to continue that.

As for threats to Russia in joining NATO, the only valid threat is that if Ukraine had joined NATO, then the Russian invasion would have meant a NATO response, as for strategic importance, honestly, anywhere that borders or that can launch an attack is ‘strategic’, so you’re saying that Russia also have the likes of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, etc in mind.

The reality is that this is all happening because of the whim of one person, who has dreams of past Soviet glory from a long time ago and astounded that tens of millions of people don’t want to revert back to those times!

Must be difficult to run a social media misinformation bot campaign without techies.

Im sorry Chewy, but you’ve lost the plot. Acting as you suggest is what caused WW2. Europe cannot give in to the bully.

Our biggest error is our addiction to Russian gas/oil, which MUST be cut off. If Russia wants to be a part of the world economy, it needs to play within the rules.

Our biggest error is our addiction to Russian gas/oil money laundering, which MUST be cut off.

FTFY. The gas/oil is the second biggest error.

Is there any chance that this thread can stick to updates and useful/interesting information? Not the who fault it is which has been has been round the houses plenty.

I’ve not seen this on the BBC/Guardian websites, but who many tanks and planes does Russia have? before the start of the war? There was something on here, I think, that said the number of tanks lost was about the same as the total number owned by Britain or France.

I know Russia had hundreds of tanks more than most of Europe combined, but not all of them would be active, how long would it take to get them from long term storage (saw something on here about the terrible state of some of there vehicles, to they may not be good to go). Same with Aircraft.

At some point they are going to start running low on these things, even if they have lots of ammunition.

I commented at the beginning of this thread that I did not want to interact with Chewkw in any way – this sums up why:

FTFY. He’s just uncritically repeating Putin’s claims.

Chewkw has a habit of repeatedly parroting what he’s heard on Fox News or read on Breitbart and conflating with reality. He’s done it with practically every controversial subject that I can recall. It’s the reason why I choose not to interact with him – the lack of critical thinking there really irks. This is the reason why I choose not to interact with him until such a time as his behaviour changes.

I’m very troubled with the notion that a nation of 44m people should immediately capitulate and do whatever Putin wishes – I would imagine that the people of Czechoslovakia felt similarly in 1938 when their country was sacrificed to appease a dictator bent on territorial expansion and genocide under flimsy pretexts.

It seems they have a reasonable supply of cruise missiles.

Looks to me that if those (and perhaps bombing runs also) were countered the situation would be quite different right now.

Although there is seemingly a deep rooted fear of invasion from the West in Moscow

You can understand it though – the north European plain goes from France all the way to the Urals, and has been used by multiple invading forces in the last few hundred years.

the north European plain goes from France all the way to the Urals, and has been used by multiple invading forces in the last few hundred years.

Though never successfully?