Ukraine

Total speculation but I wonder if the Russians are pulling back on purpose as the next thing from the long list of weapons is chemical and going to be dropped on Kyiv.

So that his people see him as having done the right thing. I’m sure he knows full NATO cannot wade in.

Yes – also I think it’s targeted at Russia too. He’s explicitly asking for this help from NATO, they’re explicitly denying it – Putin can’t credibly argue that this is all NATO’s fault, or NATO are escalating it etc. It’s quite smart, and I suspect NATO are aware of this too.

My concern about it was that it might be helping to breed resentment towards NATO and the West amongst the population of Ukraine. As dazh said there’s some already there and if it grows it may cause more trouble further down the road. Of course solving the immediate crisis is the priority at the moment but at some point after the war Ukraine’s attitude to the West will be important and if there’s resentment that we didn’t help them as much as we could (without triggering WWIII) then that could create more problems.

Just reported on BBC website:

Russia to focus on Donbas region – Russian Interfax news agency

Russia will focus on what it calls the complete “liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas region and does not rule out the possibility of storming blockaded Ukrainian cities, according to the Russian news agency Interfax, citing the defence ministry and army.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its so-called “special operation” in Ukraine – one solely within the self-proclaimed separatist republics in Donbas and the other on the whole territory of Ukraine, Interfax reported.

I really hope that’s the start of a Russian climb down….

Not sure if it’s been mentioned anywhere else on the forum, but in other megalomaniac news, North Korea’s latest propaganda missile test video is purely comedy gold

Or it would be if it wasn’t aimed at carrying a big nuke on top

Still pretty funny however

Russia will focus on what it calls the complete “liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas region and does not rule out the possibility of storming blockaded Ukrainian cities, according to the Russian news agency Interfax, citing the defence ministry and army.

I’ve been wondering if there’s a possibility for a Good Friday type settlement for the Donbas; i.e. Ukraine agrees that it can hold a referendum (at some future point of its choosing) of its own people to decide whether to be independent or not.

It’d be a climbdown for both sides, but since Russia has recognised Donbas as independent since 2014 anyway they can’t really argue against it. And Ukraine may find that sentiment within Donbas has shifted away from Putin of late too, so the administration in Donbas might want to kick that particular can down the road for a while too.

If the Donbas got a UN peacekeeping force but no military, it would give Russia a buffer……..

I’ve been wondering if there’s a possibility for a Good Friday type settlement for the Donbas; i.e. Ukraine agrees that it can hold a referendum (at some future point of its choosing) of its own people to decide whether to be independent or not.

Ukraine will not trust Putin to abide by any agreement unless it’s enforced at gunpoint. Putin bet the farm on “liberating” Ukraine. He is not going to agree to any referendum unless it’s administered by his guys. He’s not going to let neutral outsiders monitor it. Even if a referendum was held, if Russia lost, he would claim it was fixed and would ignore it. Ukraine is not going to agree to holding a referendum after the way Russia has behaved.

If the Donbas got a UN peacekeeping force but no military, it would give Russia a buffer……..

When Putin talks about a buffer, he means Russian troops and missiles. He doesn’t mean the UN sending soldiers up to his border to constrain him. Foreign troops being in former Soviet states is exactly the thing he’s fighting to stop.

I know it’s way down the line as well but I want REPARATIONS. Putin and his oligarchs, and the stock currency reserve have to pay for the rebuilding of the country. Sanctions need to stay in place well after a ceasefire deal but will they hinder Russia’s ability to pay?

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That’s probably all true. But I can’t really see any other area that could offer some kind of ground to find a compromise/negotiated settlement?

When Putin talks about a buffer, he means Russian troops and missiles. He doesn’t mean the UN sending soldiers up to his border to constrain him.

I think Dan was being sarcastic there!

That’s probably all true. But I can’t really see any other area that could offer some kind of ground to find a compromise/negotiated settlement?

Putin has no interest in any negotiated settlement that Ukraine would accept. He invaded with the intention of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign nation. He would rather turn Russia into a gigantic North Korea than back down. Nobody’s going to invade Russia so he can keep a border dispute running for years against Ukraine. To him, that’s better than signing any sort of compromise.

Nobody’s going to invade Russia so he can keep a border dispute running for years against Ukraine

Not really – it’s costing Russia a lot of money to keep the invasion going, it’s certainly not sustainable ‘as is’ so either he needs to reduce his forces (but without any sort of ceasefire agreement that would just make the forces remaining much more susceptible to attack) or increase them and hope to actually take his original strategic objectives.

it’s certainly not sustainable ‘as is’

Have you seen what North Korea has been able to sustain for decades? That’s probably where Russia is heading as long as Putin is in charge.

Haven't they had 1800+ vehicles destroyed, damaged, or captured? As someone pointed out, that would be *a lot* of unmanned vehicles.

A destroyed tank is 3 KIA, almost every single time. A destroyed BMP has got to be 4 or 5, at least, on average.

— Patrick Keliher (@pakelihe) March 25, 2022

Russia declaring victory. Probably good news, means they know they are losing, maybe willing to negotiate.

Rudskoy said Russia chose to attack across all Ukraine in order to stretch Ukrainian forces thin so they couldn't reinforce forces in the Donbas. But that goes against what we've seen & seems to be face-saving comment after an embarrassing performance, failure to secure victory.

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 25, 2022

I had a hypothesis that the more minimal aims Moscow could have at this point is to try to take all of the Donbas, pursue some political settlement, then turn around and claim that's what this operation was really all about in an effort to salvage something & declare victory.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 25, 2022

Russia declaring victory. Probably good news, means they know they are losing, maybe willing to negotiate.

A negotiated settlement? In the Donbas? 😉

I was thinking holding the teritory east of the Dnieper River was maybe a goal that could have achieved victory (ie a massive great buffer twixt ‘new Ukraine in NATO/EU’ and Russia). I don’t know if Donbas region would be enough of a buffer. Or maybe that was the hotbed of Nazism that has now been ‘irradicated’ and job done.

Though to be fair, if all these raw recruits are from the ehtnic backwaters in Russia, maybe he’d be happy enough every year just lobbing a fresh 100,000 soliders in to replace the dead ones from last year. A crackdown on the media and tighten his grip even more in Russia might even be a good thing in his mind too.

China must be licking their chops though, the price of the raw materials and gas they need is going to be rock bottom when they come to negotiate with Russia who will be desperate to sell.

Agreed. European and American countries are making the right call

Apart from Hungary.

Just popped this on the military thread, but mate of mine today popped out in his RV8 to write a message in the sky

simply good catering

He would rather turn Russia into a gigantic North Korea than back down.

That’s going to be a touch more difficult. Korea was a poor under-developed place before the war; but Russia has had three decades of modernisation and has a lot of affluent middle class people in places. They will notice if they get taken back in time 50 years.

Basically Russia are ‘changing tactics’ as they’ve had their arses kicked and Putin needs a face saving victory. Apparently Erdogan has sold this to him as a way out (Norwegian news)

Sanctions need to stay Until Putin is gone especially the oil and gas. The west is going to have to keep a very close eye on Putin and his band of crooks. Sadly it seems people don’t count in Russia but $$ do.
Whatever deal is struck if any Putin won’t hold to it he cannot be forgiven for Mariupol.
That amount of destruction only gets ordered from the top.

Unconfirmed report of Russian soldiers killing their own commander following heavy losses to their unit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=623dde6c5fbc655faa01ee04%26Russian%20colonel%20killed%20by%20own%20men%20-%20Western%20official%262022-03-25T17%3A18%3A14.419Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:e309f36b-d6ca-4199-ad96-c2262c83d9a3&pinned_post_asset_id=623dde6c5fbc655faa01ee04&pinned_post_type=share

Can someone that knows their stuff, explain why Russian Tanks appear so rubbish to a ‘modern’ hand held weapon, or am I missing something why you’d send Tanks in to get wiped out.

I worked with a couple of ‘ex’ UK Tank drivers, and they said the armour that went on our stuff was top secret (Choblum) or how ever it’s spelt, and didn’t get loaded on the tank that often.

Can someone that knows their stuff, explain why Russian Tanks appear so rubbish to a ‘modern’ hand held weapon, or am I missing something why you’d send Tanks in to get wiped out.

ex (reserve Colonel)- us tank and ifv commander (iraqi war) take on the matter

I worked with a couple of ‘ex’ UK Tank drivers, and they said the armour that went on our stuff was top secret (Choblum) or how ever it’s spelt, and didn’t get loaded on the tank that often.

It’s called Chobham, after the tank factory down the road from my childhood home. It’s all houses now though…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chobham_armour

A guy at work commented today “Russia are really shit in a competition that they can’t take drugs and cheat in aren’t they?”

Tanks alone are vulnerable. They should be deployed with infantry, scouts and mobile anti helicopter munitions such as stinger. Driving tanks up the single passable road, surrounded by good cover for ambushing troops, without an infantry sweep is pretty suicidal.

Clearly nobody in the Kremlin spend a childhood watching A Bridge too Far every bank holiday…

Carousel autoloader is a phrase you don’t hear very often. One of the main reasons apparently why Russian tanks are so prone to throwing their turrets up in the air. Of course the Ukrainians use largely the same tanks but I guess there’s less opportunity for this sort of thing when you’re defending.

Tanks can armour up. Back when I was involved in challenger2 you had chobham which is basically additional plating, effective but adds tonnes to the tank. There is kinetic which blows out when hit which reduces the effect of the incoming projectile.

One reason we were good at hit and counter was the teams that designed the systems sat in the same office and competed for the win.

MBTs are a compromise of armour over speed/weight. Fast will beat slow but heavy armour will beat light armour (all else being equal)

Can someone that knows their stuff, explain why Russian Tanks appear so rubbish to a ‘modern’ hand held weapon,

I’ve seen what dirt cheap very unsophisticated Russian hand launched  fuel air projectiles can do to a Warrior apc. I also filmed a hell of a lot of shaped charge firings. This is tech over 25 years old now. My advice, join the catering core

Simple really; sneaky beaky types will gain intelligence about said tanks, pass this to MOD intelligence and DSTL types who will interrogate said intelligence and then draw up the requirements that weapons systems and munitions of tenders bids are required to meet.

Kit is made. Kit then kills things. Everybody’s happy.

I’d end it with something about it not being rocket science, but it kinda is. 🙂

Can someone that knows their stuff, explain why Russian Tanks appear so rubbish to a ‘modern’ hand held weapon,

So this meme seems to have been rather prescient

#Shoigu: missing, but missed by no one. pic.twitter.com/Bzfd1TsuIR

— Flenser 5:14 (@FreddieSeer) March 23, 2022

BREAKING: ⚡️ Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a heart attack. Therefore, he has not appeared at official events since mid-March,” writes Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/UGl9EyaPGW

— AlexandruC4 (@AlexandruC4) March 25, 2022

Yes – also I think it’s targeted at Russia too. He’s explicitly asking for this help from NATO, they’re explicitly denying it – Putin can’t credibly argue that this is all NATO’s fault, or NATO are escalating it etc. It’s quite smart, and I suspect NATO are aware of this too.

I was going to say something similar.
As I see it, if Zalensky asks for a no-fly zone and 6,000 ADAMS and then Biden says ‘no no-fly zone, that’s WW3’ then he is implicitly saying that giving the ATGMs is not WW3. Zelinsky has to ask for things he knows he can’t get so that NATO can say no to them and taking some of the attention off the stiff they are giving. The more he goes on about a no-fly zone the less attention is drawn to everything else.

16/25 Therefore, the Russians appear to be evolving their Plan C campaign. What does this look like? First, it accepts that a short war is now not possible. The Ukrainians are in this for the long haul to defend their nation. The Russians appear to be saying the same.

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 25, 2022

19/25 Rudskoy notes this area as a priority in his briefing – “The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal – the liberation of Donbas."

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 25, 2022

25/25 Russia has shown the ability to adapt. But all their adaptation has been upon the back of military failures. It is likely they will shift to a revised, longer-term campaign to husband their forces, attrit the Ukrainians & gain ground in the east. End. (Image-@UAWeapons) pic.twitter.com/Adi0s9t3Zb

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 25, 2022

What is the point of quoting chunks of twitter posts from ex military bods or Ukrainian journalists? Particularly when there is no context.
Who knows what their background or credentials are?
It’s pointless posting to this thread now as it’s become an echo echo chamber and over-run by ‘free members’.
I’ll dip in periodically to see if it’s just the same posters behaving in the same way posting more of the same or – heaven forfend – someone posts something…new!

What is the point of quoting chunks of twitter posts from ex military bods or Ukrainian journalists?

Because they have expertise in the relevant matters. It doesn’t mean they’re always right but they are much more likely to have useful views than some internet rando.

Who knows what their background or credentials are?

If they have a blue checkmark, they should be easy to follow up on. For example, if you Google Mick Ryan, you will find this bio:

https://mwi.usma.edu/adjunct-scholars/mick-ryan/

MICK RYAN

MWI ADJUNCT SCHOLAR
Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan (Australian Army) graduated from the Royal Military College, Duntroon, in 1989. He has commanded Army units at the Troop, Squadron, Regiment, Task Force, and Brigade levels during his three-decade career.

From 2010 to 2011, Maj. Gen. Ryan worked in the Pakistan Afghanistan Coordination Cell on the US Joint Staff, as the Division Chief for Governance, Development, and Engagement, and subsequently in a new Strategy and Policy Division.

As a general officer, he has served as the Director General Strategic Plans in Army Headquarters, Commander of the 1st Brigade in Darwin, and as Director General Training and Doctrine for the Australian Army.

Maj. Gen. Ryan has a bachelor’s degree in Asian Studies from the University of New England and is a graduate of the Australian Defence Force School of Languages (Indonesian). He is a Distinguished Graduate of the United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and a graduate of the USMC School of Advanced Warfighting. In 2012, he graduated with distinction from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies with a Master of International Public Policy.

Maj. Gen. Ryan has a longstanding interest in military history and strategy, advanced technologies, organizational innovation, complex adaptive systems, and adaptation theory. He was inaugural President of the Defence Entrepreneurs Forum (Australia), and is proud Member of the Military Writers Guild. He is a keen writer on the interface of military strategy, the profession of arms, innovation, and advanced technologies (particularly AI and robotics), as well as how institutions can develop their intellectual edge.

He was appointed Commander of the Australian Defence College in January 2018.