Ukraine

Insane footage on the news tonight. I agree doesn’t feel like much chance of peace anytime soon. Putin will keep killing and squandering the lives of Russian soldiers for as long as he can I think.

Listening to some of the Ukrainians though I am reminded of this quote from the Vietnam war.

More on the shambolic Russian logistics.

and we should be seeing a whole lot of them.

Instead, we are seeing the Russian Army use two man carry break bulk boxes of mortar & artillery ammunition like this.

2/ pic.twitter.com/QFmDjkJDUt

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 24, 2022

So it seems those boats hit at the port were the subject of an RT report touting their great work supplying the special military operation.

Looks like the Ukrainian military watch a bit of RT too…

My God that’s insane.

My God that’s insane.

I am not sure RT would have made much difference considering how many locals would have happily been passing messages on saying “shame it something hit here”.
What is insane is the Ukranians have hit the same airbase several times with pretty good results everytime. At some point surely the if we cant stick them in hardened bunkers possibly best to hang out somewhere else should cross a Russian commanders mind.
God knows how this will end up. The week prior to Putin ordering the invasion my opinion was only he would know what was going to happen but now given that his plan of quickly invading and knocking out the leadership was insanely flawed I dont think anyone knows what is going to happen.

All that money we’re still making in Russia… you’ll have to ask the wife about it…

This is why ⁦@JayneSeckerSky⁩ is so brilliant. pic.twitter.com/8DWNBVqtSY

— David Gilman (@DavidGilmanTV) March 24, 2022

All that money we’re still making in Russia

Having had the misfortunate to work with infosys I think the best option is that they continue to operate there. Possibly we should ensure capitas services are also excluded from sanctions.

… I dont think anyone knows what is going to happen.

He ain’t giving up that’s I am sure as this is a threat to Russian’s existence.

People forget that Sunak is a greasy weasely shitbag. Just because he was in charge of furlough people thought he was Dishy Rishi saviour of the needy. He’s always been ideologically the opposite of that.

No it isn’t a threat to Russia’s existence – that’s the yarn he is spinning to garner support at home. It is however a threat to his existence.

Also it isn’t a question of whether he gives up – it will depend on his army. It is hard to say what’s true and not, but there do seem to be increasing reports that Kherson (the only city he has so far captured) is teetering on the brink. I wonder how many of those Rosgvardia thugs they’ve been shipping in there to beat the civilians are willing to lay down their lives to defend it.

It is however a threat to his existence.

Thats the tricky area though. He has managed to take over Russia to the level its quite hard to split his vs Russia’s interests for any poor sod living there and being mostly fed crap.
Hopefully someone senior will help find out he had a undiagnosed allergic reaction to lead being inserted at speed but outside of that I actually think those people staring into a crystal ball have a pretty good chance of being right for once.

This is true, and to be fair to Chewy I do agree he isn’t going to give this up without a lot more death and suffering unfortunately.

Had a good chat with my mate from work tonight whose in-laws were in Kyiv. They’re on their way to the uk via Moldova. They’re not big Zelensky fans apparently. They hate Putin more obviously but are very bitter about how they’ve been f***** by the the west. Take that how who will.

Putin has to have an exit clause, right? There must be some way for him to climb out of this honourably and do an Idi Amin somewhere, surely?

There must be some way for him to climb out of this honourably and do an Idi Amin somewhere, surely?

I am really not sure about that. Where could he go? China?
It does seem, with the benefit of hindsight, he thought it would be a case of invade and take control of Kyiv and either send the current government into irrelevant exile or arrest them. Then install new government and watch the people cheer/shrug and ignore it.
Obviously that has failed so now?
I guess Ukraine could give up the Crimea but would they want to vs a war of attrition? Clearly the latter really hurts them but in the long term would it be the worse option if they have a chance of regaining it? Plus of course anything short of catastrophic defeat could line them up for another invasion if Russia sorts things out.
I really dont think he has an exit clause since I think he was thinking cakewalk.

He ain’t giving up that’s I am sure as this is a threat to Russian’s existence.

It absolutely is not a threat to Russia’s existence. Ukraine is not going to invade Russia, neither is NATO. The problem for Putin is that this is a threat to the survival of his regime, which is not the same thing as Russia. He has built a personality cult around his strength and ability to reconstitute a myth of past Russian greatness. Ukraine has punctured those delusions and Putin is now desperate to maintain control. He’s scared for his own existence, not Russia’s.

The idea of an “offramp” is just another word for a negotiated settlement. Ultimately, wars nearly always end in some sort of negotiated settlement, the alternative is that one side destroys the other as a functioning entity (i.e. genocide). What has to happen is that both sides realize that the best outcome they can get is to stop fighting and negotiate. This means that both sides have to accept less than total victory, which is difficult for leaders to sell politically to their countries. The problem here is that any negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine as an intact liberal democracy would be a huge back-down for Putin. His objective was to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign nation and settling for less will be very hard for him to sell to his Russian supporters. It’s easier for Putin to just dig in and keep sending conscripts to die than to negotiate anything acceptable to Ukraine.

There must be some way for him to climb out of this honourably and do an Idi Amin somewhere, surely?

He is one month into the war today. 2nd Chechen War—a much smaller country with a fraction of population—lasted almost a decade. Major combat went for almost a year.

He is in for the long haul and is not as impatient as many Western observers/media who expect rapid results 2/2

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 25, 2022

At the same time, if Russian military resources are much more scarce than initially thought, the question is whether they can actually sustain a war of months or years. I think the intensity of armour loss and turnover of military equipment of all types is entirely different to anything Russia has fought in the last 30 years and I don’t think they were prepared for that.

The issue is the fields are about to dry and then the armour can deploy. Even if it’s depleted there’s still plenty. Assuming they have file and shells they will sit in range and level everything.
Putin wants land and in the manner of Soviets of old he jus need enough folk to farm the superfields. The rest of the population, meh.

This means that both sides have to accept less than total victory

Which is going to be particularly tough for Putin after describing the Ukrainian govt as Nazis (and drug dealers). If he’s built up this whole image that echos beating the actual Nazis and he’s very plainly not achieved that, and in fact they’ve fought his army to a standstill. I don’t know how he spins that.

• Ukraine accused Moscow of forcibly taking hundreds of thousands of civilians from shattered Ukrainian cities to Russia, where some may be used as “hostages” to pressure Kyiv to give up. Lyudmyla Denisova, Ukraine’s ombudsperson, said 402,000 people, including 84,000 children, have been taken against their will. The United Nations told the BBC that Ukrainians are being arbitrarily detained and subjected to enforced disappearances in Russian-controlled areas.

From the Guardian this morning. I’ve seen this being reported more and more now, Some folks apparently are being moved to the Russia Pacific coast region.

the question is whether they can actually sustain a war of months or years.

My guess is that it will end up similar to the Korean peninsular, with both sides digging and taking occasional potshots, but neither willing to suffer the casualties that would result from trying to dislodge the other. Ukraine was a bit lucky in that the Russian leaders expected to just drive in and take over, so Russian troops took massive casualties driving into prepared ambushes. If the Russians have time to dig in, it will be just as difficult for the Ukrainian troops to dislodge them because they will be the ones driving into ambushes.

The issue is the fields are about to dry and then the armour can deploy. Even if it’s depleted there’s still plenty.

If anyone wants to pay me to take my bike over there and conspicuously change to summer tyres, I can guarantee they’ll remain bogged down until winter starts again.

I heard that on the news last week, possibly 10days ago, that the Russians have been exporting Ukrainians back into Russia. And yep, you pretty much know they’ve been locked up in Stalins Putins Gulags

Interesting article.

https://samf.substack.com/p/losing-wars-and-saving-face

A cornered leader can be dangerous. He might be tempted to escalate in more terrible ways. But he has put himself in this corner by the way that he launched and conducted this war. We can warn him of the consequences of escalation but we cannot entice him out of his corner with minor concessions. Perhaps it will take a shock on the battlefield to administer a shock to Russia’s political system. Whatever the prompts, in the end, the major concessions necessary to end this war must come out of Moscow, and they will only come with a realistic appreciation of the tragedy which Putin has inflicted on Russia as well as on Ukraine.

but are very bitter about how they’ve been f***** by the the west

It’s no surprise that they’re angry. Their country is being destroyed by Russia while the world keeps a safe distance and just slaps the wrists of a few people close to Putin. I’m glad they’re not currently in Belarus on the way to Russia though, as I’m sure they are as well. I hope they are made to feel welcome when they get here, and I hope one day they will be able to return.

Having had the misfortunate to work with infosys I think the best option is that they continue to operate there.

I have similar experiences.

But it’s interesting that one of the people who is in charge of the UK’s response to this war in terms of sanctions on Russia is this close to a business at the heart of the Russian banking system. I mean, he can pretend it’s not a conflict of interests because it’s his wife’s company not his… but it’s not that simple, is it.

It’s no surprise that they’re angry. Their country is being destroyed by Russia while the world keeps a safe distance and just slaps the wrists of a few people close to Putin.

But it is clear that ‘The West’ cannot do much more – there would be an almost certain WWIII if NATO became directly militarily involved. And would China stand back and watch? And how about North Korea deciding to take a pot-shot whilst America’s back is turned? I genuinely fear that an escalation would quickly lead to civilisation as we know it being completely wiped out.

it’s his wife’s company not his

She is only a minority shareholder (0.9% IIRC), not the owner. Still the sentiment rings true – there is a conflict of interest.

So… not much more than a billion dollar share? And, of course, Sunak has other close family members invested in Infosys as well. And his sanction rules don’t touch them either…?

EDIT: you were spot on with your 0.9 %…

Narayana Murthy (0.38 %)
Sudha N Murty (0.79 %)
Akshata Murty (0.89 %)
Rohan Murty (1.38 %)

He ain’t giving up that’s I am sure as this is a threat to Russian’s existence.

No it isn’t.

The issue is the fields are about to dry and then the armour can deploy.

Why did they launch the invasion during “bog” season?

. I think the intensity of armour loss and turnover of military equipment of all types is entirely different to anything Russia has fought in the last 30 years and I don’t think they were prepared for that.

Indeed. According to NATO estimates, Russia has already lost more soldiers, possibly even twice as many, in 28 days than they did in the entire 10 years in Chechnya.

Various estimates suggested that Russian forces would be running out of food, fuel and ammo at about this point. Let’s hope so.

Bit speculative, but either Ukraine had a very well thought out strategy or they got incredibly lucky.

16. 5) once that has happened cut into the rear/middle of the columns to cut supply, damage support, cause chaos. 6) Wait for this to sap Rus morale and effectiveness and then counterattack.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 25, 2022

LBC just had on a black cab driver who was part of a group who drove to the Ukraine border to pick up families and take them… wherever… his trip was to Berlin. Very moving to listen to. If they clip it, I’ll share it here.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/london-taxi-driver-cab-convoy-ukraine/

I genuinely fear that an escalation would quickly lead to civilisation as we know it being completely wiped out.

This. It’s awful but it would be a lot more awful if NATO rolled in.

Agreed. European and American countries are making the right call, it’s probably the best out of a lot of absolutely awful options Putin has given them to choose from. But if the result is that you have to flee your home because your neighbours were under rubble… it would be understandable if you’re angry with everyone. Putin, your own president, and the leaders of NATO (and other non-NATO) countries. It must look as if no one is prioritising keeping you, your loved ones, and your home safe.

Zelensky occasionally stirs the pot on the whole NATO involvement thing by asking for NATO to establish a no-fly zone. Presumably this is because it sounds to some like less than a full scale NATO military intervention so some of those who would not support NATO joining the war may support the idea of a no-fly zone.

Various NATO political and military types are however keen to point out that no-fly zones don’t occur as if by magic and would require direct military confrontations between NATO and Russian forces, and would have the same effect as a declared military intervention – WWIII. Unfortunately presenting the idea that there is an option beyond the current materiel assistance being provided by NATO countries that is not a full WWIII-triggering military intervention probably breeds resentment towards NATO and the West in Ukraine, without being likely to achieve anything positive.

thols2
Free Member
Bit speculative, but either Ukraine had a very well thought out strategy

Strategically they’ll have the best heads in the world helping them tbf. So strategy was never really the issue, it was getting arms in(seems to be working) and Ukrainian willingness and capability to fight(both which seem to be bang on.).

Saying that though, still some caution required, this small push back around Kyiv could be a sign the war is changing, could be a number over other factors too.

Cautious optimism at the moment really I think. A small push back, but hopefully a sign of sea change. But the areas the Russian occupy/are in are probably the size a couple of small counties, combined the land invaded is probably the size of belgium and the netherlands. So a long long way to go.

Good analysis Seosamh. It does feel like it is entering a new, grinding phase. I think one of the biggest dangers for Zelensky is that the public in the ‘West’ become war weary, and this leads to less focus on helping Ukraine. No sign of this yet though.

Ukraine had a very well thought out strategy

I was thinking – they must’ve been planning this for years and even training for it. It was obviously a clear risk after 2014.

Zelensky occasionally stirs the pot on the whole NATO involvement thing by asking for NATO to establish a no-fly zone.

So that his people see him as having done the right thing. I’m sure he knows full NATO cannot wade in.