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The mindset of Putin was clear yesterday. Rockets strikes on residential buildings and shops in the centre of Zaporizhzhia were a warning by him. And rather than conventional tactical weapons there is a power plant which im sure he would like nothing more than to blame Ukr forces for hitting. I mean who would be going in there to check who struck the target? ? Thats the way he works cloak and dagger always.
Amazing!
Well, that's clear!
Yet another reason it’s a good job he wasn’t re-elected…
Not sure talk of "imagine if someone else was President/PM" is that useful. What people intended and stated as regards Russia before this year's escalation of the Russian invasion in Ukraine has often been left behind. Johnson was a perfect example of this. He moved (or was moved) to a new position very quickly. I suspect any PM (and any President) would have been.
It hurts so much to see the leadership of other countries and compare it to the hanging bags of dogshit we have here. 😞
It hurts so much to see the leadership of other countries and compare it to the hanging bags of dogshit we have here. 😞
We are in the diarrhoea straits for sure. It makes me wonder if the 1922 commission will quietly change the Tory party rules, so that their next leader will be chisen by the MPs instead of the party faithful. I could imagine it happening after Truss has lost the next election
/\/\
Thread drift but..
Im being* optimistic that were also heading to the final nadir of that particular brand of populist incompetence. (All other events permitting)
Well, this time round.
*admittedly with a high chance of being delusional
Theres another thread proper for this somewhere, bit its indicative of wider consequences occurring as a result of Russia war on Ukraine. And the resulting loss of influence in, what would often be thought of as their near abroad.
At least they're able to get the leaders round the same table. And agree to a 3rd party civilian mission to the border.
I'm being* optimistic that were also heading to the final nadir of that particular brand of populist incompetence. (All other events permitting)
I hope so! I can't wait for everything to be safe and boring again. Looking at you, 90s! 🙂
Oh jeez the 90s, my worries more or less literally amounted to, "can I afford another Groslch"
Oh jeez the 90s, my worries more or less literally amounted to, “can I afford another Groslch”
Haha yep!
"It makes me wonder if the 1922 commission will quietly change the Tory party rules, so that their next leader will be chisen by the MPs instead of the party faithful. I could imagine it happening after Truss has lost the next election."
Yep. It's called the minority effect and I bang on about it on here from time to time, it's where a small percentage get to decide an outcome regardless of the majority view. Same goes for Labour, the same effect gave us Corbyn.
To bring it back to the thread in question, the same minority effect occurred with the election of MEP's, the elections for which had a very low turnout. As someone who was pro common market but sceptical towards the idea of a federal Europe, (still voted remain thoigh) I have to ask the question; would we be in this position if Europe hadn't decided on this particular political path back in the 90's?
Let’s try and keep this thread on target 🤷♂️
Useful thread on the logic of Putin using nukes. Basically, doesn't work for him if NATO stays unified and doesn't give in to intimidation.
https://twitter.com/hgoemans/status/1578381939316244480
Teleprinters starting to chatter about renewed offensive. The UA are attacking from the North East down the coastal road and have apparently taken the town of Oleksandrivka, which effectively opens up a push on Kherson itself from the East
The UA are attacking from the North East down the coastal road and have apparently taken the town of Oleksandrivka, which effectively opens up a push on Kherson itself from the East
I'm struggling to follow where that is - unless you mean West not East?
Also, having sacked the commander of the Western District on Monday, Vlad the Invader has reportedly sacked the commander of the Eastern District today. But its all good because everything is going to plan..
I’m struggling to follow where that is – unless you mean West not East?
Yup, West not East. All fingers and thumbs me.
The article that I took the sackings info from states he just sacked the Eastern commander, but surely it'd be Western in Kherson?
I thought it had been quiet.
Been reading threads about russian nuke sub heading to the artic and speculation he is going to test his posidean torpedo as a bit of sabre rattling, hopefully just rubbish. But, you would expect a North Korea style "test" prior to using the real thing as a sort of final warning
Been reading threads about russian nuke sub heading to the artic and speculation he is going to test his posidean torpedo as a bit of sabre rattling, hopefully just rubbish.
One could hope that somehow the very large, irreplaceable sub accidently founders of its own accord*
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*Maybe just a touch of RN help with the process.
I had a sneaky suspicion an attack on Kherson from the West might be on the cards.
*Maybe just a touch of RN help with the process.
Or Alec Baldwin
Or Alec Baldwin
TBF, it's easy to blame it on a sailor with a ciggie.
Whatever, it would be useful to see a few of the Russian fleet disappear.
False alarm. It's Velyka Oleksandrivka which is NE of Kherson - part of the advance from the East.
ISW though already shows the front line West of Kherson through or close to Oleksandrivka. Apparently it's a common name in Ukraine.
Aaah. One of the challenging things trying to keep on top of military matters in Ukraine, is that every other town seems to be called the same name. Very confusing. Its as if every county in England had a Little Piddling or a Portlemouth and an East Portlemouth.
Come to think of it it's probably why the Russian invasion stalled. All the infantry have deployed at Oleksandrivka, but it's gone 10am and there's no sign of the artillery. Oleg gets Mischa on the phone and it turns out they're all in Velyka Oleksandrivka. Easy mistake to make. Meanwhile what passes for the Russian airforce is bombing the Church of the Holy Virgin in Olesandrivka in Odessa..
And the reconnaissance guys have ended up trapped in a bar in Oleksandrivka in Kharkiv and are pretending to have been Ukrainian all along
Had a chuckle at that FR
Aaah. One of the challenging things trying to keep on top of military matters in Ukraine, is that every other town seems to be called the same name
Not helped by there being different spellings after translation, e.g. The Dnieper river: Dnyapro (Belarus), Dnyepr (Belarus), Dnepr (Russia), Dnipro, Dnipr and Dniper (Ukraine)
We're as bad; try finding Newport in the UK 🙂
Nothing is going to be crossing the Kerch bridge any time soon.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578606593637486593?t=LNwS9Qix-1pP8hPdH9qPFg&s=19
And while I'm on the subject of translation:
Biden slips again, off camera comments to the point we are destined to Nuclear Armagaeddon very soon not understanding the paranoia and stirring of many a dictator with itchy trigger fingers and the mental health of billions
President Biden was addressing a Democratic party fundraiser at the home of James Murdoch (Rupert's son).
He's currently looking at the US Congress Elections on 8th November where both houses are currently split roughly 50:50 and he really doesn't want the Republicans to gain more seats.
In the official Kremlin translation, President Putin's speech doesn't mention a nuclear first strike, although he would retaliate. This is widely seen as a threat in the west, although as President Putin points out, only the US has ever made a nuclear first strike.
The anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis is from 16th October to 20th November, a neat window around the Congressional vote.
US analysis can't see an "off-ramp" for President Putin; I think that we'd all agree there, but that doesn't take the actions of global players such as China into account. China really doesn't want an escalation, President Xi is up for re-election next week and would rather be partnered with a strong Russia in the SCO (a slightly battered Russia would be good because they won't be accorded equal influence).
We now have a Russian threat, a date and a motive, what more could an incumbent with a falling approval rate (~40%) want?
Nearly forgot an important point:
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Friday (after Thursday's Democratic party speech ^^)
"We have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, nor do we have indications they are preparing to use them. But Putin can de-escalate this at any time, and there is no reason to escalate."
Wow, destroying the bridge is incredible news, couldn't come soon enough. The non-military Russian residents of Crimean will be shitting themselves, and that's crippled supplies to the south.
Putin will be going ballistic.
Hmm, maybe not the greatest description of his mood given recent threats. 😁
Looks to me that they waited for a fuel train to cross. Then hit that for a double whammy. Removed fuel from the front lines, increased bang from exploding fuel tanks, blocking the line
With tons of now scrap metal and probably weakeming long sections of rebarred concrete with the heat of burning fuel....
The Antonovsky bridge was a lot tougher! 🤯
Hope this isn’t a false flag op
Hope this isn’t a false flag op
Doubtful, but hey, if it is do you think they could do the decent thing and blow a few more things up as well? You know, perhaps a couple of airbases, ammo dumps and a few command centres...
I'm just wondering how much explosives were required to knock out two bridge spans that weigh several hundred tons apiece. Some Russian sources are saying it was a truck bomb but to do that job, surely the explosives were placed under the road deck...regardless, thats impressive. I'm also wondering how much heat damage the railway bridge and line will have once the Russians finally put out that fuel fire (distinct lack of emergency services there,,. I wonder if they built a fire hydrant system into the bridge or did they just pay for it and the money got syphoned off into some contractors pocket?) .
I bet they tested to do it on Putin's actual birthday... Or perhaps it technically was?
The crossing is more than 100 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. One explosives expert told the BBC said the fire was probably not caused by a missile.
"The lack of obvious blast / fragmentation damage on the road surface suggests that an air-delivered weapon was not used," he said
He said it was possible that "a well-planned attack from below may have been the cause".
I doubt it's false flag. it really screws the Ru supply. I am surprised it has taken this long. maybe they were giving civilians time to flee. it doesn't look like an cars were caught in the attack
if you were going to false flag it would be a much less important target. like maybe raising a ru village on the border, targeting a school etc...
How many explosives vs how badly built?
Hope this isn’t a false flag op
Generally for false flags you destroy minor things (or maybe kill a general you dont like and who has been eyeing up the top job) like a radio post.
That said for the train I wouldnt rule out someone having a fag on top. The road bridge looks rather precisely damaged in that video. Dodgy construction making it vulnerable at joints to a bit of encouragement from UA special forces?
Update, just looking at some of the stuff on twitter with one particular video from the security cameras, that was a truck bomb (in a moving Artic by the looks things)...blimey.
Hmm, more info suggest it was possibly an ATACMS... 8-0
Is one carriageway still up? Hard to tell from the pictures.
I’m just wondering how much explosives were required to knock out two bridge spans that weigh several hundred tons apiece.
It's where the explosives are placed that matters more than how much. Also, the heat from the burning fuel train will have weakened the structure - that's basically what caused the World Trade Center to collapse.
Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!😐
I suspect civilian areas across Ukraine are going to take a beating now.
I doubt that was caused by careless smoking. I'd say more likely it was an exploding cigar.
Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!😐
Probably a lot like a "Downfall" video 😂😂😂
If this was a suicide attack, that feels like quite an ideological change in current proceedings.
Dodgy construction making it vulnerable at joints to a bit of encouragement from UA special forces?
Doesnt always have to be dodgy construction although I doubt they built it with this in mind, built in demolition points were a thing for cold war bridges I believe.
This covered bridge — a picturesque tourist attraction in the Alpine nation — contained hundreds of pounds of TNT until October.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/why-was-switzerlands-bad-sackingen-bridge-packed-tnt-n285051
I dont really believe that theyd have built demolition points into the Kerch Bridge.
If this was a suicide attack, that feels like quite an ideological change in current proceedings.
"IF" it was, I dont think its going to be a major ideological change in the way we've come to think about those.
Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!
Not a problem. I am please to tell you glorious leader that the people of the Crimea spontaneously decided to hold a fireworks display to celebrate your birthday which has resulted in some minor traffic disruption.
Plus with the length of the table by the time the sound waves reach him you could have sodded off and let the next messenger take the blame.
Whatever the cause, this just really changed things.
The only way in for food and supplies from or retreat to the motherland is either foot and boat.
Or a long drive along the coast. Which after this week is within range of Ukrainian weapons.
Well that's certainly a game changer. As demonstrated in the most excellent thread linked to below, the construction methods of the bridge made it vulnerable to the right type of targeted attack.
The critical nature of the bridge for Russian logistics is clearly explained too. In a word Vlad is now f###ed. Proper f##ked.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572389840007892992.html
Wow
Some sort of massive truck bomb?
Agree suicide bomb would be a huge change of tactics
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578616783572852737?t=BNX9egXAHpYsyQ5PDG-vYQ&s=19
find it amazing footage from the security cameras is finding its way onto twitter. if it wasn't that truck bomb, that driver had some really bad luck. huge explosion too.
Boat underneath rail bridge? They must have known when the fuel train would be crossing
find it amazing footage from the security cameras is finding its way onto twitter.
In corrupt regimes everything can be bought
This has been done by manually placed charges. One on the railway triggered by a passing train, designed to ignite the fuel train. This was set up to trigger similar charges on the adjacent road bridge, with two timed charges there. First to lift the road section up of its bearers, second to displace the road section horizontally while it is off its bearers, so within milliseconds of the first charge.
The other option for the road bridge would be a shaped charge but the photographs clearly show the road bridge deck as being displaced outwards.
If this was a truck bomb or missile strike there would be debris visible and the mass of explosive required to collapse a RC bridge deck would be unfeasibly large.
Doubt it's a truck bomb, would need percussive force to penetrate into the superstructure.
Possibly the ATACMS missiles the Russians have been squeaking about. Each one of these weighs over a ton, hits the target at approximately Mach4 velocity and has a payload of 200lb of high explosive. The area of the bridge struck is of tied arch construction, so a couple of these is going to mean goodnight Vlad.
As an extra bonus nobody is going to be that bothered where (or which) Oleksandrivka is now..
EDIT - speculation of course. Waverider may well (almost certainly does) know more about this than me!
I think a boat may be more likely. A truck would struggle to carry enough explosives for such a big bang.
You could a lot more in a boat/barge.
One of these recently washed up in the black sea
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1573193208913620992?t=ECbx4y9pXYDX-hfhnGxAaA&s=19
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1572612313324077057?t=7HbZ1URfZOCLEMgOz6ky3w&s=19
I'll post link to thread on the bridge again as already disappeared on previous page! Really informative about critical nature of the bridge for the Russians
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572389840007892992.html
still one carriageway standing it seems. not a total loss
Russia's least favourite episode of The Slo Mo Guys ever
Makes you wonder if one side been deliberatly left standing to give a road home for any troops that decide it's time to make a hasty exit?
Looks like Ukraine had a busy night, another target was hit.
Meanwhile, a cargo train in Ilovaisk in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region was hit by a “powerful explosion” Saturday morning, according to the adviser to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andrushenko.
“Not only Crimea. Not only fuel tanks. There is also a cargo train in Ilovaisk. Locals report a rather powerful explosion and subsequent detonation at night. The occupiers now have big problems with supplies from both sides,” Andrushenko said.
That's a good point - hard to move supplies against another civilian exodus too.
Can't move the conscripts, T62s &;unguided missiles to the front lines without rail
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1578663007546023936?t=EhUVsknN4adBinHXToPt8A&s=19
Strongly suspect taking out the rail link was the point, the road damage incidental.
It all comes down to the structural damage to that rail span, as it’s still standing.
As with the Moskva, commemorative stamps already issued!
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1578667659763232768?t=9yX31VbJSSv29gYf7Ulkow&s=19
As with the Moskva, commemorative stamps already issued
Amazing!