Ukraine

What’s Chewkw’s expertise in Russian/Chinese policy etc.

Genuine question from a lurker on this thread

Same as the rest of us “armchair politicians”

I had an idea.

Seeing as, apparently, millions of people think this is an avoidable act of barbarism and should stop at once…

What if some of these multinational millions travelled to Ukraine and walked, in peaceful protest through the country? Walked to the battles and filled the areas? Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

I believe they would. It would be portrayed in Russian propaganda as a NATO plot to invade Russia. Putin doesn’t give a **** what the rest of the world thinks, he just needs Russians to not revolt.

 Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

[Russian General of Information]

Dear citizens of the world, you have walked into an active war zone. Your safety is at risk. We will cease operations (not really) for 24 hours to allow you to evacuate, after that; we will resume operations, we cannot be held responsible for any injuries or death as as result of your own decision. Thanks you for your attention at this time

[/Russian General of Propaganda]

I fear that would instigate massive escalation – it’s unlikely that Russia would stop hostilities (design or accident doesn’t even matter), and he’s then firing on NATO country’s civilians.
NATO then has to get involved, and no-one really knows where that ends up, but worst case is really, really bad…

Hey ho.

I find it hard to imagine, but then I wouldn’t think of rolling tanks into another country and trying to turn it to dust either…..

NATO then has to get involved

They don’t. Not if it happens in a non-NATO country.

Off you pop then, I’ll hold your coat.

.

gofasterstripes
Free Member
I had an idea.

Seeing as, apparently, millions of people think this is an avoidable act of barbarism and should stop at once…

What if some of these multinational millions travelled to Ukraine and walked, in peaceful protest through the country? Walked to the battles and filled the areas? Would the Russian Army dare to fire on these people in their thousands or tens of thousands?

You’ll get told to leave and if you don’t you’ll probably be designated an enemy combatant.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-z-fifth-columnists-intl-cmd/index.html

I’m usually a bit sceptical of CNN tbh. But his seems an entirely plausible assessment.

The Russian people, Putin added, will “always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors, and simply spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths, spit them out on the pavement.”

The uncle was a medic in the Donbas between 2016-18. Now he is hiding with his son and daughter. The daughter’s husband was a professional soldier 2015-2018 and was returned to the army after the war began. He is fighting in Luhansk Oblast, presumably near Sieverodonetsk…

— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) March 20, 2022

This is a mad article about the last two journalists in Mariupol, the ones who took the photos of the bombed maternity hospital, who had to flee because the Russians were trying to hunt them down to stop more photos and news getting out.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede

Incredible, that apnews article.

Incredible, that apnews article.

I can’t find the words. War is truly horrific. Unless you’ve been invaded – and we haven’t been for a thousand years – you just cannot grasp what it means.

Horrific isn’t it? Hard to believe people can even exist in those conditions. The feeling of dread that must accompany every waking minute is hard to conceive of…

What’s Chewkw’s expertise in Russian/Chinese policy etc.
Genuine question from a lurker on this thread

None whatsoever.
But I understand, speak (mandarin but not the CCP type) and know how they think.

Also in SE Asia most of the opinion from ordinary folks is “US” is behind current episode of implanting ideas into Ukrainian people and NATO/EU expansion. They support China but I don’t … so there you go. If US/NATO start to push Russia east they are going to survive no matter how hard the sanctions can be. Probably need to sanction half the world if they don’t agree openly with US. At the moment most of the governments are “neutral”.

I fear that would instigate massive escalation – it’s unlikely that Russia would stop hostilities (design or accident doesn’t even matter), and he’s then firing on NATO country’s civilians.
NATO then has to get involved, and no-one really knows where that ends up, but worst case is really, really bad…

Russia will not escalate unless they are attacked first. They do not have the technology to do so. With Russia it will only be land war. If NATO enter their land/space (vast country) there is a possibility minor nuke will be used, which in this case is still nuking their own land.

This is a mad article about the last two journalists in Mariupol, the ones who took the photos of the bombed maternity hospital, who had to flee because the Russians were trying to hunt them down to stop more photos and news getting out.

Terrible and Russia will continue until they get what they want.

I can’t find the words. War is truly horrific. Unless you’ve been invaded – and we haven’t been for a thousand years – you just cannot grasp what it means.

It is Not easy to invade another country in 21 century unless they are linked by land. UK has the advantage of the sea as buffer zone just like USA. These are the two countries most difficult to invade. Nobody will even think about it.

Chewk actually exemplifies a very good point

Hes repeating Fakenews Russia is deliberately targeting elsewhere

The majority of pro Russian disinformation, especially blaming Nato etc is directed not at the west but at the rest of the world

When we say Kyiv is winning the information war, far too often we only mean information spaces we inhabit.

Pulling apart the most obvious RU info op to date (as we did using semantic modelling), very clear it is targeting BRICS, Africa, Asia. Not the West really at all. pic.twitter.com/GA5KUQo77S

— Carl Miller (@carljackmiller) March 18, 2022

I have no idea how accurate this report is.

⚡️General Staff: Russia loses tank detachment in failed Kyiv assault.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian army’s 6th tank regiment has been destroyed on March 20.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 20, 2022

Chewk actually exemplifies a very good point
Hes repeating Fakenews Russia is deliberately targeting elsewhere
The majority of pro Russian disinformation, especially blaming Nato etc is directed not at the west but at the rest of the world

I watch news from BBC/Channel 4 only while other sources are mainly analysing China CCP.
As for the Russia/Ukraine situation I can only deduce from their actions. Plenty of information online but I don’t really read them. Can’t be bothered really as the current situation is rather obvious which can be interpreted from both sides, which I do. The war is no good to everyone but the problem is that both sides are very determined which is a recipe for more suffering. Both sides do not want to back off and the result is what it is now.

That’s a very good comment. Feels like there is a lot more death and suffering to come before this is resolved sadly.

These are the two countries most difficult to invade. Nobody will even think about it.

Lots of countries are very difficult to invade, either size, geography or location. Off the top of my head, Russia, Ukraine…But also, Australia, New Zealand, Canada,US, Iran, Greece, Turkey, China. the list is a long one. In fact unless you’re a country with a land border in Africa or Europe, it’s next to impossible

I’ve just read the AP article about the last journalists, and was about to post a link after reading the latest posts, and I see I’ve been beaten to it. Truly frightening situation, and I have to say that journos who report from war-zones like that, unarmed, are performing a heroic service in bringing back the truth about what’s being done to innocent people by a megalomaniac.

Lots of countries are very difficult to invade

Funny that’s where the borders ended-up, eh?

Various KIA/wounded figures floating around, this one got a brief airing on the Pravda channel.

Major pro-#Kremlin Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda website just had a story that:

– 9.8k Russian soldiers died in Ukraine
– 16.1k injured

Now *poof* story has disappeared.

Here's the archive: https://t.co/ujvEhNJ9JJ pic.twitter.com/5dfeHTj5HP

— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) March 21, 2022

And there is some suggestion that this does not include ‘private contractor’ (Wagner/Liga) deaths, which may also be significant.

In terms of manpower lost, Russia is approaching its 10-year Afghan totals within a month. A terrible slaughter, if true.

Blimey, if those Russian dead and wounded figures are even ball park correct, Putin isn’t going to be able to keep a lid on the domestic situation.

With thanks to Paul Woodadge I thought this was rather good…

[/url]

On Panorama tonight a Ukrainian official said 15,000. There were trains full of bodies.

Channel4 news was a hard watch this evening. The interviews with refugees in Poland, and their host, hit me harder than the reports from Ukraine. Easier to relate to the families who have left parents/children behind to defend their homes than those still there facing the bombings, incursions and occupations first hand. And then they played this at the end…

Seven-year-old Amelia Anisovych – who went viral after singing the Frozen hit song 'Let It Go' in a bunker in Kyiv – performs the Ukrainian national anthem at a charity concert in Poland for victims of the war. pic.twitter.com/wBIkS3vNmF

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) March 21, 2022

So, technically, Japan and Russia are still at war?

https://t.co/57CDRYVOzU

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 21, 2022

I won’t believe ANY* figures of dead/injured, on either side, whether military or civilian until this war is over and validated by a credible, independent source (if that’s even possible…)

* Even “order of magnitude” figures are going to be subject to propaganda usage

So, technically, Japan and Russia are still at war?

Russia’s response to countries adding to its increasing isolation is… to further isolate itself?

I won’t believe ANY* figures of dead/injured, on either side

Wise. I don’t see any Russian media publishing inflated figures for Russian losses though, do you? Not citing RF military sources, anyway.

Wise. I don’t see any Russian media publishing inflated figures for Russian losses though, do you? Not citing RF military sources, anyway.

No, as it wouldn’t suit their propaganda needs. The figures MartinHutch references in his Twitter post above are being attributed to a website hack by someone who is, presumably, not pro-Putin (and, strangely, I actually find the hack claim to be believable!)

Interesting. Who’s identified that it’s a hack, rather than published by staff… and then edited after publishing by staff?

Interesting. Who’s identified that it’s a hack, rather than published by staff… and then edited after publishing by staff?

BBC Live Update

Hmmm…link may not work but C&P:

We reported earlier that our colleagues at BBC Russian had compiled a list of 557 confirmed Russian military deaths in the Ukraine invasion, mentioning that Russia’s defence ministry has so far only once provided fatality figures – 498 deaths as of 2 March.

All that suddenly changed in the last few hours, or so it seemed…

The staunchly pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) published an article quoting the ministry as saying 9,861 Russian servicemen had died, a figure which exceeds even US intelligence estimates of Russian fatalities.

It gave the number of wounded as 16,153.

Minutes later, this part of the article disappeared from the page, but we were able to take screen grabs of the relevant paragraphs.

KP editor Vladimir Sungorkin subsequently told the BBC the information had been the result of a hack, and said the paper will post an explanation later.

KP editor Vladimir Sungorkin …

Lots of countries are very difficult to invade, either size, geography or location. Off the top of my head, Russia, Ukraine…But also, Australia, New Zealand, Canada,US, Iran, Greece, Turkey, China. the list is a long one. In fact unless you’re a country with a land border in Africa or Europe, it’s next to impossible

I feel The Princess Bride has been missed off the World Leader’s 101 viewing list…

“The only tank manufacturer in Russia has stopped working

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Uralvagonzavod has stopped its work due to a lack of foreign-made components.

It is the only Russian company that carries out assembly series of tanks.” https://t.co/rC7vxRJDfF

— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 21, 2022