Ukraine

How do you even start rebuilding, even before you consider some buildings of historic importance that can never be rebuilt. How can anyone afford that?

Germany, Japan, Russia, Eastern Europe, etc. had monumental rebuilding tasks after WW2. Provided there’s a pool of labour available and financing, Ukraine should be able to rebuild in the same way. They will need a massive aid package from the EU and U.S. though.

The tricky thing will be that, assuming Putin gets thrown out, Russia may also need a massive aid package to avoid economic collapse. That will be a hard one to sell to voters in democratic countries.

There will be big construction players from all over the world figuring out who will pay them and who has the money.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there companies with russian links in the rebuild mix.
Who will pay is the question. Not Putin/Russia that’s for damn sure.

Where do you find so many brickies, plasterers,

Poland would probably be a good start judging by all the trades in Sw London.

Re the drones…..

Last week mate’s missus (Ukrainian) had a list of things they are in need of. One of those things was any kind of drone.

Drone manufacturer in Taiwan is donating load of them to Ukraine.

An article in the Economist last week detailed how mortars were being fitted with 3D printed fins so that they could be launched/dropped by drones.

Anyone else see this? **** hell, that’s either some weird level mind-**** by putin, or those guys are some of the bravest folks in Russia, backed by many other brave folks to make it happen. Wow.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/mar/19/russian-cosmonauts-board-iss-wearing-colours-of-ukraine-flag

Wow! Brave statement and one that is hopefully not going to go unnoticed by the Russian people.  Another small crack in the Kremlin foundations.

Three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station last night in flight suits made in the yellow and blue of the Ukrainian flag, in what appeared to be a daring statement against the war https://t.co/iBEGV12e63

— The Times (@thetimes) March 19, 2022

Edit: beaten to it by BSN!

The cosmonauts take off & land from Kazakhstan so I imagine if they wanted to defect after landing it wouldn’t be a problem! The sanctions have got to seriously affect Russia’s ability/desire to fund civilian space missions in the future anyway, I’d have thought?
The guy who runs their space agency has thrown his toys out the pram somewhat & threatened non-co-operation, although apparently he does that a lot so is not being taken too seriously yet! 😂

The reason the cosmonaut gave for wearing yellow is priceless “We had accumulated a lot of yellow material so we needed to use it,” he joked. “That’s why we had to wear yellow.”

Bravery indeed, unless it is Putin muddying the water (see also the Russian UN ambassador’s letter).

It will be a Kremlin organised action, showing unity with Ukraine as the liberating “hero’s”

So where do we thinking this is going now? It’s obvious that a full occupation of Ukraine isn’t going to happen, but Putin will need to take something to save face here eh? A pure land grab seems the obvious route? He’s got to be thinking of outs to this by now surely?

He’ll defo be keeping some of the south, cause they need access to the Dnipro River to get water for Crimea(The Ukrainians blocked that pre war), guess question in the South is really how much land is he willing to occupy down there, will he attempt to keep cities like Kherson and similar in that big area north of Crimea and East to Mariupol? The flattening of Mariupol suggests that that isn’t going to get given back anytime soon, seems to be straight up clearing out the city there. Similarly in the North with cities with Kharkiv, Sumi and Cherniv, they are all getting flattened too(Kharkiv defo, unsure if Sumi and Cherniv are faring any better). So perhaps, taking a strip of land north and south as well as Consolidating the Donbas is probably what he’s looking at at the minute?

I think overreaching himself to Odesa is looking like a bit of stretch now? I think Odesa was/is a war aim, as he’ll be wanting to shut off access to the black sea for Ukraine, and also that’s where a lot of Ukraines Gas and Oil fields are in the bit between Crimea and Odesa, so we could potentially see him going for that.

Dunno, probably another while to go, I think the stalemate has to break at some point, eh? Guess it really depends on how stretched/motivated the Russians are, and how dug in the Ukrainians are now(Which is obviously a massive factor, I never guessed they would dig themselves in so well, so fair play to them for that.)

^^I think he’ll settle for the land bridge in the south and the breakaway regions in the east.

He’ll just destroy as much of the rest of the country out if pure vengeance basically. He wants to damage a defiant Ukraine as much as possible financially too with rebuilding a country and society again. Ironically I can see lots of money going into Ukraine and bugger all going into Russia. Unintended consequences.

Either way, the sanctions must continue after Russia withdraws. Putin and his cronies have to go.

I’m not convinced that public opinion would stand for the Russians just casually sauntering back home whistling. They must have done trillions of dollars of damage on top of the genocide and other war crimes.

Belarusians doing their bit

Belarusian railway workers today sabotaged the railway lines leading to Ukraine, making it impossible for the Russians to resupply by train.

The Russian logistics situation near Kyiv just went from bad to worse.

It’s the largest sabotage action in Belarus so far during this war pic.twitter.com/lE5lZUhu5i

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 19, 2022

So where do we thinking this is going now?

Give Putin what he wants unless Ukraine can force a stalemate then try salvage whatever is left in the West Ukraine if they are allowed to.
No point for Biden to go to China to ask China to broker a deal etc as China will only demand access to the world.

Either way, the sanctions must continue after Russia withdraws. Putin and his cronies have to go.

Putin will not withdraw even if Ukraine is wasteland.

I’m not convinced that public opinion would stand for the Russians just casually sauntering back home whistling. They must have done trillions of dollars of damage on top of the genocide and other war crimes.

Public opinion not is important if Russia felt threaten as they are fighting for the existence due to NATO expansion. This is not a domestic politics when one can be threaten etc. One wrong move and you have nuclear war.

kimbers
Full Member
Belarusians doing their bit

Superb. I suspect there might well be a concerted effort from Belarusians to rid themselves of their own mini Putin as an indirect result of the invasion of Ukraine.

I hope it’s not as bloody.

I hope it’s not as bloody.

It might even be worst considering the size of the country compare to Ukraine.

Superb. I suspect there might well be a concerted effort from Belarusians to rid themselves of their own mini Putin as an indirect result of the invasion of Ukraine.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Belarus try to distance themselves from Russia. They maybe see themselves as next in line for a “military operation” if Russia succeed in Ukraine. Maybe Kazakhstan too.

I’m not convinced that public opinion would stand for the Russians just casually sauntering back home whistling.

Without going for WSMO3 what are the options beyond just continued sanctions and….?
Beyond Ukraine will probably say “sure we wont join NATO” since that was a vague goal anyway and “Not a chance we will demilitarise” since outside of them joining NATO disarmament would basically say “please try invading us again next year when we have disarmed” its random crystal ball staring.
At a guess Ukraine might end up giving up Crimea and the other areas since whilst they might eventually win a war of attrition they have the disadvantage of going against a dictator who isnt overly fussed about lives and so an imperfect peace may well win out.
I am still confused though why about why Putin went for the war and when he did why he didnt go for the narrow aim of securing access to Crimea to back up the bridge.

Well let’s hope war criminal Putin will be eradicated before nuclear war. He’s like the bully at school who won’t fight with fists so pulls a knife.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Belarus try to distance themselves from Russia. They maybe see themselves as next in line for a “military operation” if Russia succeed in Ukraine. Maybe Kazakhstan too.

If push too far my view is that there will probably be a first small (sample) of nuclear strike on one of them to keep the rest in line. Even with a nuclear strike NATO can only watch.

Remember if Russia falls China will be next and they will not allow that. If you drag China in now then you are looking a very long war in Europe.

If you wish Russia to stop then respect Russia and talk to them because the mortal enemy is Not Russia but China. Even Russia is afraid of China and China is a sleeping dragon that can sleep for a very long time.

Without going for WSMO3 what are the options beyond just continued sanctions and….?

The very simple option and a very good one is to Respect Russia and let them to be. DO NOT cross the line. Let Ukraine be neutral no matter what. Do that and you will see Russia withdraw. The world is Not created in one ideology like democracy only.

At a guess Ukraine might end up giving up Crimea and the other areas since

See what I said in earlier threads and see what Russia is demanding now. Do that look familiar?

It wouldn’t surprise me if Belarus try to distance themselves from Russia.

Its tricky. Since the only reason their current dictator is still in power is thanks to the Russian deployment of thugs, sorry, peacekeepers so if Russia does overextend then it might come back into play.
However sending their military in risks them dying which not only will upset the relatives but also weaken the ability to control the population.
Lukashenko has a difficult balancing act and hopefully he will fall off without any innocent casualties.
I was in London today and walked past Downing street as the anti Assad activists were walking down towards the Ukrainian picket. I did have a passing thought that they really should be disagreeing with each other since its in the Syrians interests that all Assad’s battle hardened thugs take the cash and go to Ukraine and so allow for a counter attack.

Its tricky. Since the only reason their current dictator is still in power is thanks to the Russian deployment of thugs, sorry, peacekeepers so if Russia does overextend then it might come back into play.

That is their way of life. They have dictators. You force democracy on them then you will see war(s). That region is full of nukes and they are there for a reason.

Respect Russia and let them to be. DO NOT cross the line. Let Ukraine be neutral no matter what.

“Let them be” where? Which countries do we let the RF take by force? What’s “the line” for them? Invading a country isn’t letting them be neutral.

“Let them be” where? Which countries do we let the RF take by force? What’s “the line” for them? Invading a country isn’t letting them be neutral.

The red line is Ukraine or the current non-NATO states that used to be Soviet Union. Try not to convert many more because from now on I see there will only be wars. Probably some small nukes being used too … once the place is uninhabited due to radioactive it will also become the natural buffer zone. The people have two choices either they escape or go West or go East to populate Russia.

They won’t invade a country if NATO is not trying to creep into their space or backyard. i.e. buffer zone. They have a strong arm in influencing the local politics or dominate their domestic politics but that is their ways. They are non democratic but people don’t get shot or bomb.

If they are neutral no harm will come to the people even if they have the most corrupt puppet leaders in the world.

The “East” (former Soviet bloc) is Not the domain of the West.

You don’t push Russia away to China to create an even bigger enemy. You want Russia to side the West to create smaller enemy. Having Russia on the side of the West may even change them in the long run making them less/not hostile to NATO etc …

That is their way of life. They have dictators. You force democracy on them then you will see war(s). That region is full of nukes and they are there for a reason.

Utter nonsense. It is not “their way of life,” why would you say something so ridiculous? The region is not “full of nukes”. Russia has nukes. The other countries in the region do not.

I think we’ve found the line.

Unfortunately I think many more Ukrainians (and young Russian conscripts) will die before this is over, but the war seems to be something of a stalemate now. The Russians are digging in, which means their offensive operations are likely to be over for the moment. They seem to be digging in at the point of extremity for their logistics operation. Maybe they are waiting for the end of mud season, but by then their equipment will be even more knackered, and their men even more demoralised.

I don’t agree with much of what Chewie says but he is right that Putins actions may get more extreme. Mariupol is being made an example of, but it is also important to realise that this is where the Russians are most easily able to resupply.

Time will tell, but I’m not sure how much active help China will want to give to Russia. Probably the most useful thing they could give is trucks and food, but the Russians are probably asking for bigger guns, which frankly won’t help them!

Someone should tell chewie that the Soviet Union has gone and all that’s left is a very nasty kleptocracy which the sensible people of Ukraine don’t want to be part of.

The Russians are digging in, which means their offensive operations are likely to be over for the moment.

Seems to be the case.

A sign we may be seeing an evolution into a stalled phase, Russian trenches. pic.twitter.com/uGxnMU7OyO

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 20, 2022

They won’t invade a country if NATO is not trying to creep into their space or backyard.

Apart from all those countries that they’ve already invaded regardless; Georgia, Abkahzia, Transnistria, North Ossetia (twice), Tajikistan, Chechnya (Twice), Dagestan, Crimea. which are all countries in Russia backyard who aren’t looking to join NATO or the EU.

Parroting Putins’ propaganda about NATO encroachment isn’t a great argument

They won’t invade a country if NATO is not trying to creep into their space or backyard.

It’s not their space, it’s other countries’ space. Russia has absolutely no business in Ukraine. Now they are shipping Ukrainians off to the gulag. The “NATO made them do it” line is just an excuse to turn a blind eye to ethnic cleansing.

https://twitter.com/xxmk23xx/status/1505262367478894597

Morning catch up read completed…

Twitter reported Belarussian diplomats leave Kyiv for Moldova and this morning:

09:24
Russians bombard art school in Mariupol, civilians trapped under rubble. The attack on March 19 hit an art school in Mariupol’s Livoberezhny District, where nearly 400 women, children and elderly were sheltering, Mariupol city council reports. The building is destroyed. The number of casualties is yet unknown.

Putin is morally bankrupt.

Also unconfirmed reports of Mariupol citizens being taken to Russia.
Unconfirmed. horrible if true for those people
I see nestle are still in Russia a shitty company showing it’s true colours again.

And a question for the military types on those dug outs that’s not modern warfare tactics?
No way on earth would I bed down on the side of a road if your opponent had air power. Infact cheap drones could find you it’s like Russian military text books are still from the 50,s

Apart from all those countries that they’ve already invaded regardless; Georgia, Abkahzia, Transnistria, North Ossetia (twice), Tajikistan, Chechnya (Twice), Dagestan, Crimea. which are all countries in Russia backyard who aren’t looking to join NATO or the EU.

If we assume that Wagner are a front for the Russian government then we should include the countries Wagner have interfered with too.

These include – Venezuela, Mali, Libya, Syria, Central African Republic, Sudan, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Angola, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and possibly the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Are we to assume that the above countries are all trying to join NATO & the EU, and therefore cross Putins red lines too?

non-NATO states that used to be Soviet Union

You are making a strong case for more countries joining NATO.

Anyway, you do know that Putin has called for NATO to pull out of the Czech Republic, Poland etc. Should that complied with to “let Russia be”? His line isn’t at the borders of current NATO states at all, as I fear we will discover in the coming years. Germany and the EU are going to have to take his threats far more seriously after the events of recent weeks. Many people in countries like Poland and Lithuania aren’t going to want to rely almost entirely on the USA much longer, they will want Europe to start defending itself, or risk losing lives and territory to Putin (and what follows him).

And a question for the military types on those dug outs that’s not modern warfare tactics?

If you are in static location for any reason for anything other than a short period, you dig a hole. A ‘shell scrape’ if you are in a hurry, a fire trench with overhead protection if you have time. It’s the only effective protection infantry or any soldiers not in armoured vehicles have against artillery and mortar fire.

Squaddies hate it, and winge about it, especially on exercise when they have to fill them in afterwards, but they all know the value of it.

Can the Ukrainian Army actually defeat the Russia without help from Nato? All the hardware thats flooding in will help of course but there is still tactics and training.
Airpower is being neutralized by both sides having serious AA capability so will we see a push back at any point? Or is it a long, slow drawn out attrition with both sides losing men and machines and one side losing their homes ad well.?
The rf just seem to have so much more hardware, although where it is its unrepairable even if lightly damaged.

If Belarus backfill troops from the north, I wonder what they will be thinking heading south past all the scrap and burnt out kit on the way to Kyiv.

Can the Ukrainian Army actually defeat the Russia without help from Nato?

Absolutely not. But they’re not trying to. They’re just trying to resist being captured. No one is trying to “defeat Russia”, they are just defending their homes. There is no ending scenario to this where the Russian army surrenders, or the fight is taken to Russia. But there is the hope that, against the odds, resistance might result in stalling the advance for long enough that Ukraine still exists in the future, and people can live there outside the reach of RF security forces. I don’t fancy their chances at all, but I do want to be wrong and see the people of Ukraine succeed in their resistance to military occupation. The much more likely scenario is vast areas of Ukraine emptying and being flattened, depressingly.