Ukraine

Oh and for all Putin’s idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis,

At least one senior neo nazi has died during the invasion. Vladimir Zhoga commander of the neo-nazi Sparta battalion died.
Okay so he was on the Russians side but thats a minor detail.

Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it

I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?

…and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily ‘stolen’ from them in 1858:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun

Yes, the old guards are still sore about this as far as the news I received from far east source. For the moment they let it be but I foresee them wanting it back in future.

Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?

China is onboard but I don’t think they plan to invade Russia an inch. They don’t have to as they have other means in exchange. i.e. finance and military hardware etc.

 Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?

No one, Russia for various reasons shown by Napoleon and Hitler is pretty invasion proof from the west, and given that there’s literally nothing worth invading for in the east, why bother? I mean the geography of Russia does give it issues, but of 99% problems, invasion ain’t one as that well know strategist JZ notes.

Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it

I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?

No-one would invade. But there are plenty of nationalist areas (notably Chechnya, South Ossetia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, etc etc) that need to be kept in line with military force. By moving troops out of those places he’s potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home.

Russian armor heading in the direction of Ukraine, apparently filmed in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.

Krasnoyarsk is like 4000 miles from Kyiv! That’s several days travel, plus time to unload, move, fuel, generally prepare the tanks and get them where they need to be. A week or two before these lot are involved?

potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home

Very good point. Thanks.

Yes hadn’t thought of that – I think especially in the South they are deploying quite a few of their police style militia units too, so it has to be a bit of a risk.

I’m not sure how more armour will help them. If this war has proved anything it is that, on this battlefield at least, the infantryman is King, and the Russians seem massively reluctant to engage on foot, hence lots of pictures of destroyed tanks. A tank without infantry support is just a sitting duck.

And yes I’m just an armchair lieutenant but even the most basic reading of tactics will tell you this.

I’m not sure how more armour will help them.

after 3 weeks of fighting they probably need to rotate out units for refitting and rest.

A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?

To return to chewie’s post earlier that nobody has directly answered.
If that is what a democratic Swedish government decided on then, yes. The EU would allow it. How could they stop it? But the problem with that hypothetical question is that it would never ever happen without a dramatic change in the geo-political environment. Why would Sweden do that? Because they were afraid of an EU invasion? Because they wanted to invade the EU? Because they decided that the Chinese political system was so fantastic that they wanted to remodel in the country on the Chinese example? None of these things are even remotely likely.
This shows up why the Putin excuse is so risible.. NATO has no intention of attacking Russia, has never had an intention of attacking Russia.. The whole ‘buffer state’ argument is a charade to disguise the fact that this is all about Russian Nationalism & a desire to regain their empire while turning the clock back to when Russia hadn’t lost the Cold War. Putin’s speech yesterday attests to that.

I’m not sure how more armour will help them

It won’t. There’s a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.

The Russians in Ukraine have been war fighting now with no break for 3 weeks, at that point it doesn’t matter if your the “most powerful army in the world” TM the effectiveness of your soldiers is probably decayed to such a level that they’re ineffective now, already. Replacement units coming all the way from Siberia is too late. It’s a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the “elite” units

so it has to be a bit of a risk

And that speech clipped up the page… he clearly has “trouble/destabilisation at home” on his mind. He’s talking about “spitting out” Russians not Ukrainians there. Depressing times ahead for the Russian people.

Fearing Poisoning, Putin Reportedly Replaced 1,000 of His Personal Staff. https://t.co/WURrroRBdx

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 17, 2022

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations https://t.co/li9u8UO74d

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) March 16, 2022

It’s a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the “elite” units

Are they the elite, or are the elite actually placed in internal security roles? And the army kept weaker to reduce the power of the army leadership?

My understanding is that the security forces have the power. Their job is to stop the army from overthrowing Putin. Dictators always have to be wary of army officers so the officer corps is composed of people who have shown unflinching loyalty, which means never disagreeing, which basically means incompetent fools. They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade. That’s why they got slaughtered when they met a real army. They also have regular (contract) soldiers, but they are apparently treated appallingly badly. Then they have conscripts. The life of a conscript is a miserable hell. It looks like a lot of Russian soldiers have just abandoned their equipment and deserted in Ukraine. Not really surprising.

Paranoia and fear surely must be ratcheting up in all levels of Russian and Belarussian society and evidently right to the top.

There’s a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.

You been listening to Al Murray? He was talking about that very thing the other day.

Lols I thought it sounded familiar. To be honest I’m getting all my news about this invasion from 1941…

 have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants,

My old neighbour Steve who died at the end of 2019 was a Royal Marine Commando in Normandy. His only complaint was having to take a shit in hedges. As a sniper he was right on the front line and they’d been watching a chateau for a while to be sure the Germans had left. He’d made it clear to his comrades he was going to be first in just so he could sit on a toilet. The only problem he recounted was that when he got in it looked like half the German army had used it before him.

They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade.

Not really. The Russians have plenty of internal security forces for that who are trained and equipped for the job.
Problem for the elite forces is the plan failed.
I think the idea was they would grab the strategic airfields to stop them being destroyed. Then a mix of the tank columns getting to them quickly and air reinforcements would let them hold it.
Problem was the tanks didnt get in and their air transports would be target practice since they dont have air supremacy and, even if they did, with all the weapons being sent to them the Ukranians arent short on stingers and the equivalents.
It was reported they lost several plane loads of paratroopers when they were shot down.
Without those reinforcements they were doomed.

I hadn’t considered that Putin talking up a “purge” could be as much about finding others to blame and punish for military/strategic performance as it is about signalling that civil dissent will be crushed…

The reason for the detention is unclear: per one source he was detained by FSB's military counter-intelligence department over "leaks of military info that led to loss of life", while two others say it was "wasteful squandering of fuel", ahem. pic.twitter.com/UynQuWv8sr

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 17, 2022

Staggering but somewhat predictable.

I don’t see a way out of this for putin. Hopefully he’ll get taken down from the inside.

But for those who worry about prodding the bear.. You think Biden will sit by forever? He may be a ‘dem’ but he’s still a true blue American who won’t be seen to back down either.
I think that’s why the Americans have been relatively tentative so far…

Putin must be aware of the path he’s taking all this on.. It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?

It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.

You been listening to Al Murray?

He has a WW2 podcast doesn’t he? Not for a while (got a bit same-y) but he loves his Normandy, so I’m not surprised. It’s pretty well known after all.

It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.

…and of course Zelenskyy is actually one of the people who did say ‘no’ to Trump with negative consequences for military etc aid:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal

which shows he’s good at saying no to these twits, but makes me worry even more about the next US election.

It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?

He hasn’t lead a normal life for a very long time, his view is distorted by being surrounded by sycophants and yes men (whether those are true believers or just hustling for personnel gain). I am not sure anyone is in a position to challenge him at all, never mind dethrone him. And as bleak as the current situation is in Ukraine I suspect the long game is worse for Russia as his cronies need to explain the failures, everyone could be in the crosshairs. There will be a ratcheting up of purges and secret police state activity, neighbours spying on neighbours out of fear and to survive. It is going to be **** horrible.

This is an interesting read on strategy, especially on how to end the war.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-folly-a-case-study-of-an-inept-strategist/

It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?

I think he is.

Putin content to pour as many tanks, soldiers and bombs as possible into the fight, if he’s forced to negotiate a way out he will want maximum leverage.

Doesn’t bode well for Ukrainians

Although it seems that UA making inroads at recapturing Kherson, (only city Russians have captured)

?? Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade and aligned units liberated Posad-Pokrovske. The town is located on the road between Mykolaiv – Kherson https://t.co/3d4oQiQsh0 #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/yfGy8F7Niq

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 17, 2022

Meanwhile Ukrainian grannies don’t take shit

A video from Bilozerka, Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainians block and curse at Russian soldiers.

One older woman shouts at Russians “you scared of fighting a grandma one on one.” pic.twitter.com/oMjU6qltXo

— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 14, 2022

From reading the last two pages of this it seems Putin is doing an excellent job of slowly hanging himself.

putin is definitely NOT stupid – look at how he came to power and has stayed there for 20+ years, becoming ever more powerful and the wealthiest oerson in the world; until his Ukrainian misadventure everything he did went, generally, unchallenged by the west.
He came to believe he was invincible and completely misread how Ukraine- and the west – would respond; also over-estimated possible Chinese support.
A living example of how absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Hubris.

Hold the party poppers, he’s not dead and buried yet.

No wonder the Russians are surrendering – the universal power of grannies!!

I think Putin will only dig in harder now
The advances may be stalled but if they sit still they can still inflict huge amounts of damage as Ukrainians come to them.

Meanwhile Uzbekistan showing some definite testicular fortitude

Uzbekistan’s foreign minister said it won’t recognize the so called LNR and DNR, fully supports Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Also that Uzbekistan will provide a humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This is massive.

— Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) March 17, 2022

mattyfez
Free Member

It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?

I very much doubt he’s stupid. But even a powerful train can be on the wrong tracks. Smart people can believe they’re smarter than everyone else- when they’re wrong they can assume it’s everyone else that’s wrong and they’re right. They can get too used to easy wins and believe themselves to be unbeatable. All sorts of things. Delusion and intelligence are two different things.

 Hopefully he’ll get taken down from the inside.

with a frozen sausage

Well… after Sting saying he won’t perform any more private gigs for Russian Oligarchs, now Bono has written a poem for the people of Ukraine

NEW: Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she'll be "reading a poem written by Bono about Ukraine" at Annual Friends of Ireland Luncheon later today. https://t.co/X72o9cqRGN pic.twitter.com/8N9mzv0Dzz

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 17, 2022

The pressures on, for sure. No word of any specific action planned by Bob Geldof, as yet

No wonder the Russians are surrendering – the universal power of grannies!!

I was in Grozny in mid 90s and remember a bunch of said grannies haranguing a Russian tank that was dug in in the middle of the main road until they upped and left.  I was more than a little bewildered and impressed with what had just happened

The pressures on, for sure. No word of any specific action planned by Bob Geldof, as yet

shit’s gettin’ real fo shu

shit’s gettin’ real fo shu

Not until James Blunt slams Putin on twitter.

Yeah, come on Blunt!

Talking about the meeting of celebrity and politics… someone post Arnie’s little message, it’s actually quite good. Hang on… I’ll find it…

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share. pic.twitter.com/6gyVRhgpFV

— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) March 17, 2022