Ukraine

This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a threat on Russia, it is a threat on Putin’s plans to expand the RF towards Germany.

Putin and Russia are the “same”.
No, he will Not expand towards Germany. He might be brutal but I doubt an ex-KGB can be that naive. Besides moving west means entering the western hemisphere which is the domain of the superpower the American and they (Putin will be) are far far away from home. They will become fish in a barrel.

A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?

No, he will Not expand towards Germany.

That’s exactly what he’s doing. If you mean he won’t make it as far as Germany, I suspect you are right. But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.

The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?

The rest of your post, I don’t understand. Are Sweden asking China to defend them? Who from?

I am trying to illustrate a point that both sides do not want their territory to be encroached no matter how peaceful they can be. i.e. America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard nor do Russia wants them to be in his backyard. Both sides will see that as a threat no matter how both sides try to explain.

But if I lived in Poland or Lithuania right now, I would be looking to move, rather than take that risk.

No strategic significance to Russia.

I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.

America/Nato/West do not want Russia in their backyard

They don’t have much choice. Russia has bordered NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.

No strategic significance to Russia.

Safe for you to say sat further west.

I just hope the Ukraine/Russia war can be solved asap.

We all do. Sadly, whatever is agreed and signed when this stage of the Russian war on Ukraine is over, it quiet clearly won’t be the end. See 2008, 2014 etc. Putin will be back for more, and occupation will cause ongoing conflict.

They don’t have much choice. Russia has boarded NATO since its formation. There has never been an EU without a land border with Russia. And the USA is just across the water.

But Ukraine is the last straw …

Safe for you to say sat further west.

There is simply no evidence of them moving into a NATO member state. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).

A few week ago we were listening to…

There is simply no evidence of them moving into Ukraine. None. In fact they have been shrinking (influence).

But I hope, and I think, you are right, and that other countries like Lithuania and Poland have nothing to worry about. If I lived there I’d be getting my family out though, rather than wait to be proven wrong.

do not want their territory to be encroached

Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.

Ukraine is not Russia. No one has encroached on Russian territory.

Nor is Cuba on American soil yet Cuba is still under embargo.

Crikey… The old chwewks is back.

I withdraw my previous comments.

Russia has invaded another country. That’s it. That’s where we are at now.

The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?

Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.

They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine was run by corrupt oligarchs backed by Russia. There were mass protests and the government fell. This angered Putin greatly and he invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine still has massive problems but it has made huge progress on fighting corruption and the army is firmly behind a democratic government.

This happened because there was huge popular support for liberal democracy and joining the EU. It was nothing to do with being manipulated by foreign influence. If you have any evidence that foreign money was behind it, please share it, otherwise drop it. The “just asking questions” thing is just a way of implying that something happened without providing any evidence.

Putin needed an explanation for why Ukraine turned away from Russia. The best his propaganda people could come up with was shadowy foreign agents funding a campaign against Russia. The problem for Russia is that Putin has been in an information bubble for many years and believed his own propaganda – his advisers would have been too scared to tell him the truth so blaming “foreign money” was an easy excuse for them. Putin’s delusion that Ukrainians actually liked him is why Russia thought they would drive over the border and be greeted as liberators by grateful Ukrainians. The reality of being greeted by anti-tank missiles and machine guns and crowds of civilians protesting the Russian invasion is a clear demonstration that the pro-EU campaign was driven by a Ukrainian desire for self-determination, not by foreign money.

The foreign money “question” is just a Russian propaganda line that has no evidence. If you’re going to raise nonsense like that, please show the evidence for what you’re saying.

Russia has invaded another country. That’s it. That’s where we are at now.

Russia is actually exercising their own “Monroe Doctrine“. i.e. no foreign power in the backyard.

Also refer to the Bucharest Summit 2008 i.e. NATO expansion. (Summary from Wiki)

Russian explicitly says No but they still let it slides until now.

They got the idea from looking at how life in EU countries was much better than in Ukraine and Russia.

Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown, then it snowballed from there …

Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown.

The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him. He tried to suppress protests with force but failed. Ukrainian soldiers seem a bit less keen on turning machine guns on civilians than Russian soldiers. Ukraine now has a democratically elected government that favours closer ties to the EU. Putin’s anger was not that a coup occurred, it was that a popular revolution overthrew a corrupt pro-Russian government and replaced it with a much more liberal democracy.

This is the sort of thing that Ukrainians voted against. The idea that Putin has any legitimate interest in Ukraine is nonsense. Ukrainians knew just how bad Putin was and they wanted no part of a Russian Empire led by a murderous tyrant.

https://t.co/NW76Eob1ir

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) March 17, 2022

The President fled when it became obvious that the country turned against him.

I bet he was fearing for his life but now everyone fears for their lives. If force could be used at that time then force is being used again this time. Democracy is not their style in that region.

Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.

Democracy is not their style in that region.

It is now. That’s why Putin is so angry. Democracies popping up all over Eastern Europe, showing that there is an alternative to brutal repression. Or are you saying that Ukrainians have no right to live in a liberal democracy because their country used to be corrupt and authoritarian? In many countries around the world, democracies have replaced dictatorships. Are you saying that those democratic governments are not legitimate because democracy was not the “style” in those countries so they should revert to being dictatorships?

If Tom Nichols is worried, I’m worried.

This is an astonishing number of casualties. If the Pentagon's 7000 figure is correct, that's more than twice as many deaths as we took in 20 years in Afghanistan in *just three weeks*.
The implications for Russia are immense. /1 https://t.co/ETXrxQxZXv

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 17, 2022

But it also means that Putin might be getting close to his Hitlerian "The Russian people have failed me" moment. His speech today was totally crazypants; so far, he's blaming the rich Russians who have turned against Russia. But at some point, he will see traitors everywhere. /3

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 17, 2022

I do not want to speculate on worse outcomes. But when a paranoid like VVP decides that his own army and security people are traitors, and he has priests telling him that he's God's chosen instrument against the drag queens and the vegans, well.
/5x

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 17, 2022

Those same people are now very angry as they are slowly coming to realise that the generations below them have grown up largely in the shadow of Russian imperialist violence, and that they have lost control of the narrative that comforted them through decades of the war on terror

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) March 16, 2022

Many of these very mainstream figures engaged in outright war crimes revisionism on Syria, due to their ideological position that could not see a non-US aligned state as an aggressor. They suffered no personal, political or professional consequences for doing so.

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) March 16, 2022

That is what is playing out now in Anglo-left spaces. An entire generation of pundits finding their outdated and prejudiced political ideology is no longer tolerated in spaces they used to dominate. The show is over. And we're left with nothing but the wailing & gnashing of teeth

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) March 16, 2022

Bottom line is No foreign forces in the backyard regardless.

But it’s not their backyard… it’s next door’s garden. Any forces there are going to be foreign – all countries have their own militaries, some bigger than others. The only reason it’s an issue is if you plan to invade them, or you fear that they are going to invade you.

The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.

The only reason that Putin has invaded Ukraine is to try to bolster his popularity within Russia. Putin has invented this crisis with the express purpose of casting himself as a strongman leader, and the good guy.

As it turns out – he’s completely **** ed it: The international response has been 10x what he must have expected, he’s going to have to make some serious concessions to get those sanctions lifted (which he’ll fear will make him look weak) and the Russian armed forces are being made to look like a bunch of incompetent/brutal arseholes….. so pretty much the opposite of what he hoped he’d achieve.

Very significant and chilling. https://t.co/QhEhaadEj8

— Daniel Finkelstein (@Dannythefink) March 17, 2022

This is an interesting take. Putin essentially channelling the line “If you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere” line to a somewhat more chilling effect than the May-bot could achieve

The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse

You can keep telling people all you like, if they’re not prepared to hear it…But as you point out, for Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine to work he’s reliant on the West’s military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing. Thus sort of revealing what he really think’s of NATO.; that it’s a talking shop and poses him no threat whatsoever.

Something going on Belarus allegedly

https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1504194054585831429

Massive explosions in a number of cities in #Belarus. Residents of Baranavichy, Luninets, Stolin, Hantsavichy, Slutsk, Kletsk and other cities reported sounds similar to explosions. We are trying to understand what happened

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) March 16, 2022

More than 7,000 Russian troops have died since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, according to American intelligence estimates. The number is greater than that of American troops who have been killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. https://t.co/kaD3S9RABG

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 17, 2022

New York times reporting thousands of Russain dead, and MOD intelligence breifing saying that the Russian advance has stalled on all fronts.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1504336242997174274

The NATO expansion excuse is quite clearly just that, an excuse. The best way to prevent NATO expansion IS FOR RUSSIA TO STOP **** ING INVADING PEOPLE.

NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly) than anything else. It’s why they’ve repeatedly defaulted to military intervention to force Moscows goals.

Chewie’s points are I feel false and illogical, BUT they do serve to illustrate what Putin and some of his people believe. His speech yesterday was completely bonkers – it can’t have escaped the attention of his people that he is becoming more and more deranged. Will be difficult to see where this goes next. People keep talking about an off ramp but I can’t see that on the current Russian demands, Ukraine won’t accept it – why would they as there seems to be currently no risk of Putin imposing his will by force. So, either Russia manages to ‘unstall ‘ its military operation, or Putin has to compromise. I think we’re in for a long haul…

But as you point out, for Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine to work he’s reliant on the West’s military organsation to do what it normally does when he destroys another country; absolutely nothing.

No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians. The one thing he has left that will unite Russian public opinion behind him is NATO joining combat against Russia. This would confirm all the propaganda he’s spouted about NATO secretly aiming to destroy Russia.

NATO and EU expansion has always looked more of a political failure on Moscows part (a failure to bring countries towards Moscow willingly)

Exactly. Russia never offered those countries a deal worth considering. It saw them as subservient to Russia, not sovereign countries to be treated as political equals. Russia could have been like Germany is in the EU, a powerful member of an economic bloc that dominates the economic sphere but doesn’t need to send troops and tanks to keep the others in line. But that would have required renouncing the dream of being a military superpower again. Putin doesn’t want Russia to be an important country in the region, he wants it to be a global equal to the U.S. The aspirations of other Eastern European countries carry no weight for him, that’s why they turned to the West.

No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening

yes, now he certainly is. At the beginning of the “special operations” I think he was banking on NATO absolutely not intervening. Classic hubris of the autocrat really, underestimate your enemy, don’t plan properly, believe your own hype.

❗️❗️❗️Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets❗️
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus. pic.twitter.com/4OagAmYMN6

— Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022

I’ve no idea what’s going on with that

No, a flurry on twitter last night , now nothing.

No, I think he’s now trying to lure NATO into intervening, hence the deliberate targeting of civilians.

No, he is not trying to lure NATO/West into escalation. He is going to flatten the place because it it is cost effective without having to maintain the place. Invading the place is “easy” but maintaining the place needs money. Flatten the place is much more cost effective. Hence, driving out/terrorising the population is the best way forward because Russia/Putin does not need to “feed” the people, considering the size of their economy.

I’ve no idea what’s going on with that

Supposedly a military exercise, they just forgot to warn the country this was happening.
I wonder if intimidation of the Belarusian people is an aim here – there have been protests, there have been military refusals to operate apparently, they seem to have more access to information than many Russians….

Have they accused the Ukrainians of firing missiles into Belarus yet? Not that this would be unjustified, given those that have been fired from their airspace into Ukraine.

Feels more like a way to shore up Belarussian support for the war, and domestic support in Russia. How convenient for Putin that he doesn’t even have to blow up his own people like he did in the run-up to Chechnya, he has Belarus as fodder for his propaganda.

We’re waiting for more info on how many have survived

— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 17, 2022

Belarus are drafting soldiers and more equipment moving closer to border

The movement of military equipment has intensified in Belarus. Columns were seen in the areas of Bobruisk and Dobrush. That's realy near to the UA border /Kyiv.

Not good…. pic.twitter.com/2tTktfX7cF

— OTTO (@idemetrescu) March 17, 2022

Also moving battle groups from Georgia

Confirmed: Russian units from the 4th Guards occupation base in Tskhinvali are leaving the region through the Roki tunnel and heading to fight in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/dJMi2yH9Pv https://t.co/SkbAAWqc7o via @visionergeo #Ukraine #Georgia

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 16, 2022

And as far away as Siberia

Russian armor heading in the direction of Ukraine, apparently filmed in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.#Ukraine #Russia #StopRussiapic.twitter.com/vZUtV2TNK2

— Intel Rogue (@IntelRogue) March 16, 2022

Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
Which is quite remarkable

I don’t know – Lukashenko must be feeling pretty nervous right now. He is 100% dependant on Russian troops and money for his continued survival. Was reading about the rebuilding of Aleppo yesterday – it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!

Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!

Background on Belarus – Lukashenko doesn’t really want to do it. Belarusians don’t want him to do it. But he might have to.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/

There’s a good reason for that caution. Joining the attack against Ukraine would be hugely unpopular — a survey found that only 3 percent of Belarusians support such an idea, according to Ryhor Astapenia, who leads Belarus Initiative at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program — and it could break the military, which is one of the key pillars keeping Lukashenko in power.

“The Belarusian army has never fought anywhere, the army is not prepared for external conflicts,” said Valery Sakhashchyk, a retired army lieutenant colonel and former commander of the 38th Airborne Brigade based in the city of Brest near the border with Ukraine. “Lukashenko is far from being a fool. He understands that there is a large risk that the Belarusian army will not succeed, that it will suffer heavy losses, and then his last supporters could very well turn away from him — and that would be a disaster [for Lukashenko].”

Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!

The real risk would be from China
They’d love Siberia resources…..

Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown

Followed by elections in 2019 which Zelenskyy won by a landslide. Oh and for all Putin’s idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis, far right groups polled about 5% in that election.

The real risk would be from China
They’d love Siberia resources…..

…and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily ‘stolen’ from them in 1858:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun

Aleppo yesterday – it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!

Chechnya has a strong connection to some of the middle eastern countries so the funds might come from there.

Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!

You know how the Russian’s have logistics problems in Ukraine? I’ve heard Siberia is quite large and there aren’t a lot of gas stations along the way.