Ukraine

They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.

You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.

[ EDIT: I see you’ve added another line. Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please. ]

Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained.

So how will that be done without Russia “devouring” them?

Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.

Nobody poked the bear – the bear stuck it’s head in the hornets nest (sorry couldn’t think of an analogy) and now can’t get its head out, even though it is being stung over and over.

You’ve posted a lot of good content in this thread, but that last line makes no sense. Any of the bordering countries are of strategic importance, if the aim is to have a “buffer region”.

He does have a point though. Ukraine is important beyond being a buffer – Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc, and obviously it doesn’t freeze in winter like most russian ports. So getting a land bridge to Crimea is going to be one of his main aims, as and when he climbs down from full-on occupation. Also, it has a lot of natural resources, importance for agriculture, etc. Estonia et al don’t really have those advantages.

So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?

Putin took Crimea (back then), partly because the naval base in Sevastopol gives him great access to the Black Sea / Mediterranean etc,

Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.

Putin’s plan was to take the entire country

His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night

He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he’ll be back for the rest.

Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually “give” Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.

The NATO intervention unraveled when labour voted against intervention and thus the lead partner for the US said no

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/03/10/ed-miliband-should-hang-head-shame-should/

Tonight has been an education.

Went out for a pizza and a beer with an Italian mate. I didn’t know before but his father was Ukrainian.

His take on all this;

Stalin was in league with Hitler when the Germans invaded Poland and they’ve been Nazi’s ever since.

In his eyes Putin is just the continuation of Stalin

His Ukrainian father was captured fighting the Russians when they invaded Ukraine and then conscripted to fight the Germans, as were many others. It was that or the Siberian Mines to die

They’ve always been waiting for this. They always knew that Russia would invade Ukraine it was just a case of when

His opinion of the Russian people would demolish any sweat filter.

They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!

Glad in Ireland we never accepted our fate of living next to a Big Bear.

Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?

I would suggest that Ireland and it’s history is very different to Ukraine’s

Don’t start retreating back into your “the Blob” type language, keep engaging on ideas, please.

Their foreign policy is a mess caused by the Blob (Foreign office establishment).

So how will that be done without Russia “devouring” them?

Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.

So we should sit back and let Putin expand as and where he pleases?

The case for Ukraine now is really to think hard because NATO/West will not intervene to escalate the situation. NATO/West will only provide background voice but not much beyond that. Ukraine is more or less on their own and the ordinary folks are going to hate the NATO/West now having bought into the “dream”. Yes, they hate Russia/Putin too but many will feel cheated.

Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.

Turkey is a bit vague but I doubt they want to trigger any displeasure with Russia. They seem to be comfortable with both sides.

Putin’s plan was to take the entire country

Yes, Putin thought he could walk in without realising Ukraine would resist so strongly.

His 3 day decapitation collapsed about the time his paratroopers were massacred thinking they could take the airport outside Kyiv on the first night

That will make him more determined because he knows he cannot afford to lose his buffer zone. He will fight no matter the cost and even ask the Chinese CCP for drones etc.

He might settle for the regions he has taken so far, for now, but he wants it all and he’ll be back for the rest.

My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means. If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.

Which side of your analogy do the nutters still setting bombs off and shooting people sit on?

I would suggest that Ireland and it’s history is very different to Ukraine’s

i would suggest you need to read some history and concentrate on the history of Ireland from another perspective – there are many parallels. Invasion, occupation, genocide. Domination by a giant superpower that saw its neighbour as being a colony.
If Ukraine is continuously occupied nutters will occur as an insurgence.

They are a breed apart and they are utter ****s!!

Ah, you’ve met my old Finance Director from Moscow…

He’s dreaming if that’s true – he’s not driving the people out. His forces are all over the place – one minute trying to capture Kyiv, the next the Black Sea coast, and a land bridge. He’s used up his entire initial force and is now having to call in mercenaries and troops from all over his empire. He has no air superiority, and all the time the Ukrainians are getting more and more weapons and aid pumped to them and are clearly better trained, better motivated. Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me.

If there is no ceasefire it will just be a long and bloody war of attrition while his economy disintegrates.

Be neutral with no threat to Russia i.e. no Tomahawk station.

Desperately naive

Putin wants Ukraine, he sees it as part of Russia
He wants Finland back too

He is so convinced it’s part of Russia he believed his own propaganda that the Ukrainians would welcome his troops with open arms

Instead he’s pummeling the country into rubble and throwing his own troops into a meat grinder to get it : 1000s dead, many more injured, over 1000 captured

Don’t get me wrong I have no doubt there will be continued massive destruction, but capture half the country?

No water, no heating, no food, nothing available for people apart from constant explosion or building being destroyed, nobody can last long in those situation.

My view is that he wants at least half of Ukraine hence he is driving the people out by all means.

Agreed, he won’t be happy just linking the Crimea by land to Russia in the East, he also wants the whole of the coast line and a considerable area in the South, ie “New Russia”. What he wants might have already been changed by the people of Ukraine though. Maybe they can reduced his realistic ambitions further.

If Ukraine continues to resist he will push further to drive more people out even if it means Ukraine is a wasteland.

If they hadn’t have resisted, he would already have pushed further, and there would be twice as many refugees in the surrounding countries. And there would be no Ukraine. That may still come. Let’s hope not.

Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.

I think it’s gone beyond that now, and chewk makes some interesting points. (I never thought I would say that!)

Notice that putin is not attacking ex-soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, but is happy to pick on countries like Georgia and Ukraine…

Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.

Apparently it’s not gone down well. According to the BBC “a move Russia said was unforgivable”. Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!

Well for balance, I only worked with one Ukranian, he was a very normal IT consultant type and quite a nice bloke.

I worked with a couple

One did a PhD project in our lab, she worked her arse off tbf
Anyway her Facebook posts are quite grim, she lives in Kyiv and her hatred of the Russians is now immense

I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.

Meanwhile Russia bombed a theatre!

A theatre sheltering a lot of children

Drama Theater from the inside before the #Russian bombing

Just look at how many children are there… pic.twitter.com/Sgg4q8gPmP

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 16, 2022

They’d even written ‘children’ in Russian outside
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1504199975877632003?s=20&t=_okNLw3-SW06dfhLkfd73g

Another horrendous war crime in Mariupol. Massive Russian attack on the Drama Theater where hundreds of innocent civilians were hiding. The building is now fully ruined. Russians could not have not known this was a civilian shelter. Save Mariupol! Stop Russian war criminals! pic.twitter.com/bIQLxe7mli

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 16, 2022

There’s only 1 hospital left in Mariupol and there’s some footage from inside it that I won’t post

Well let’s hope if Russia does take over the entire Ukraine coast the Turkish blockade of warships in the Bosphorus continues.

Well yeah – officially, they’re allowed to close the Bosphorous ‘in times of war’. So that could become interesting if and when a peace deal is signed. But for the time being at least, that should be possible?

I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO? If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.

Yeah that argument doesn’t wash at all well!

I personaly think Putin wants Europe to over-react, to give him an excuse for more violence. despite the atrocites he has already comitted, and play straight into his narrative.

I think Europe is playing the game as well as it can in the face of a mad man.

A report I just read said that the theatre had an underground shelter, presumably a relic of the Cold War – let’s hope it is not as bad as it might have been.

Spectator

Peter Hitchens and Dr Mike Martin discussing Ukraine.

I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument.

That’s because it’s nonsense. Putin isn’t afraid of NATO so much as he’s afraid of liberal democracy. His aim is to reintegrate the former Soviet states into a new Russian empire. He succeeded in Belarus. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian people rejected being a puppet state and turned to the EU. NATO membership was not on the cards, it was EU membership and democracy that set Putin off.

Claiming that Ukraine would be better off as a puppet state makes no sense. Ukrainians have rejected that and have chosen to fight. The Ukrainian army hasn’t defected, neither have their TA units. They prefer to fight than to be subjugated by Russia.

This war is not about NATO “expansionism”. It’s about Putin wanting to subjugate Ukraine and launching a war after Ukrainians elected a democratic government and turned towards the EU.

“but capture half the country? Feels like a tall order to me.”

If Putin wants half the country he doesn’t necessarily have to capture it. In negotiations he could trade the land he now occupies in the South West and North of Kyiv for the as yet un captured land East of the river.

Not saying that’s what’s going to happen but I think it’s a scenario that’s been plausible since about day 4, when the capture of the entire country began to look less likely.

In terms of bargaining chips at the negotiating table, it would make more sense for Russia to attack more strategically important sites (ports and industrial cities etc) in the West, rather than try to occupy the vast, mostly agricultural lands yet to be invaded in the east.

I think it highly likely that Crimea, Luhansk, Dombas and a land corridor between them will be ceded to Russia. I think Putin sees them as in his pocket already. He’s bludgeoning the cities remorslesly because he wants more than that, and probably needs more than that to claim it as any sort of victory back home. Half of Ukraine would constitute an enormous agricultural resource, (Ukraine is huge don’t forget).

Peter Hitchens and Dr Mike Martin discussing Ukraine.

I’m sorry, but I’d rather take a fistful of rusty 6″ nails and ask the local “problem drinker” to hammer them into my scrotum after imbibing a bottle of ouzo then to listen to Peter Hitchens.

I don’t really get the ‘buffer zone’ argument. Wasn’t Ukraine before the invasion the buffer zone – a non-NATO country between Russia and NATO?

Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join NATO.

If Russia were to take Ukraine, their new neighbours would be… NATO. Like the other NATO neighbours they already have.

That’s not the true Russia so still a buffer zone.
Remember Russia has seen their “empire” reduced from Soviet Union to Russia. They see their position/land slowly diminished and the counter balance of power slowly tilted away. When NATO slowly encroached on their neighbours they could see NATO moving east into their territory and eventually will cross the red line. Although a country with the largest landmass situation can easily turn against those in power and their way of life. They know the softly softly approach would not work because that’s the tactics used by their opponents. Hence, their approach is direct and to the point.

Putin isn’t afraid of NATO so much as he’s afraid of liberal democracy.

Yeap, I totally agree with that. Liberal democracy is a Trojan horse and he knows that. The fundamental of liberal democracy is individual rights as defined by West, while in the East or Russia such concept of liberal democracy is being imposed upon them. Hence, the Blob’s view that the world must be “created” in their image with them in charge.

Yes, Ukraine was a buffer zone until they decided that wanted to join NATO the EU.

FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.

FTFY. What triggered the invasion back in 2014 was Ukrainian voters rejecting closer ties with Russia in favour of closer ties with the EU. It was nothing to do with NATO, it was about liberal democracy.

The question is where did they get the idea or if anyone funded the campaign?

Remember US sent the contras back to South America to topple the governments there? I am not saying that was the case in 2014 but there must be something that triggered it.

Hence, the Blob’s view that the world must be “created” in their image with them in charge.

There is no USA “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there. The main help offered to Ukraine by the USA itself (with the UK) over the years was to persuade and assist them to decommission their nuclear arsenal, and send the warheads to Russia, so that the country would not be a threat in future to Russia or other European countries (or the world).

inkster – I’ll restate my view of what putin wants from any ‘negotiation’ and add that any agreement with him isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

He wants to save face and present any agreement as a win – I think that means 4 main objectives:
– russia to keep most territorial gains
– russia not required to pay reparations
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join NATO
– Ukraine to drop it’s aspiration to join EU

I have no connection with Ukraine but I cannot see any of these being acceptable to Zelensky – with possible exception of no reparations.
Despite reports to the contrary I’m not convinced Ukraine will drop their NATO wish.

Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.

He wants all of Ukraine.
He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.
It’s gone to ruin he has bankrupt his own people by becoming the worlds richest man and now a war criminal.
China must be licking it’s lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.
The worlds largest country won’t even have an international flight operation as no one is going to lease jets to them.
Hardly a master tactical mastermind.
I do think he will try and drag the EU in now or at least have a go at it I don’t think failed war mongering is going sit well with him.

There is no “Blob”. There has been an extending of offers of trade and cooperation towards former Warsaw Pact countries by the EU, sometimes with the support of the USA, sometimes with them opposed to it, depending on who was elected to high office over there

Trading is fine but when their political influence is exerted further that is where Russia does not feel comfortable.

Nobody is imposing liberal democracy on Russia. Nor for that matter, are they imposing it on Ukraine. Also, just as a further reminder, Ukraine isn’t Russia.

As I said earlier, it does not matter whether they are imposed or not on Ukraine as the “tide” is moving east towards Russia. The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.

He has wanted the USSR back for years he openly says it has written about it. his legacy project to the motherland.

No, he understand that is not achievable and he does not want to see Russia also turning.

China must be licking it’s lips at getting Russia into debt now no one else is going to lend Russian banks cash or prop up the stock market when (if) it opens.

China is playing a very long game. Time is on their side. Remember China claimed they discovered America first long before the Europeans?

Do Not push Russia towards the Chinese CCP. Solve the problem in Ukraine without China.

The only way Russia knows how to response is via force as they perceive a threat.

This is true. But what is that “threat”? It is not a military threat on Russia. It is a threat on restricting and resisting Putin’s plans to expand the RF by force. It is the threat of the people in bordering states becoming an example to the people of Russia.