Ukraine

In that article, Tariq Ali states that in November, Joe Biden decided to “proceed with NATO enlargement – starting the process of incorporating Ukraine”.

Can anyone find a source for this? I can’t find any info about it.

I can see plenty of info about how in 2008, NATO said that Ukraine would probably, eventually, become a member, and how ever since 2014, Ukraine has been going ‘hey, can we be in NATO now?’, to which the reply has consistently been ‘no’.

It’s a shame he didn’t provide a source because I’d be interested to read more.

Interesting background material from T Ali:

I like this sentence especially “And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia” that’s aged well.

 Personally I’m not a Blairite and don’t support all this bombing and killing.

Well good, I don’t think anyone here has expressed support for all this bombing and killing, Blairite or no.

OK, genuine question if you’re not up for “bombing and killing” how else are you going to deal with Putin and his expansionist agenda?

To be fair, I’ve seen just as bad in the back of a Saxon after 5 days on Salisbury plain.

Nothing compared to the back of Barrys Saxo after butlins

It’s hard to see how Russian withdrawal at this point would be anything other than a complete failure for Putin. If he withdraws, he’ll only have shown that he’s not the mafia mastermind we thought, he’s a deluded madman chasing decades-old USSR dreams. That he’s surrounded himself with yes-men who have enabled this shit-show. Meanwhile, the Russian armed forces that we’ve feared for some time look incompetent and anaemic.

Even the messaging at home (AKA propaganda) appears to be falling apart, so I can’t see how he could possibly spin this as a victory even internally. Although it’s hard to know how much we’re being shown (journalists’ protests, resignations etc) is actually reflective of what they’re seeing.

Meanwhile China keep ominously quiet on the whole thing. Does anyone else feel like the world order is shifting? We’ll soon forget about Russia and it’ll be the West vs China?

Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back? Beggars can’t be choosers and all that but even then there are limits 😂

Russians are still losing serious amounts of equipment even in places they’ve ‘captured’

15 helicopters and several mobile missles launchers destroyed at Kherson Airport by Ukrainian mobile rocket trucks yesterday

First March 16th imagery of Kherson airbase following a Ukrainian attack that destroyed multiple helicopters via @planet (left). Compared to the @Maxar imagery from March 15th (right) there appears to be additional damage. pic.twitter.com/fYklB5WFuZ

— Bellingcat (@bellingcat) March 16, 2022

I hope this is true!

I read that the International Court of Justice has ruled and instructed Russia to cease military operations

Do they have any weight behind them?  Are Russia obliged to observe this ruling?

The answer will be some kind of conditional neutrality. No NATO, but Russia agrees to not invade, or NATO will help defend it. Obviously somebody cleverer than me will draft it!!

I think this is pretty much how it will pan out, it’s just so utterly tragic that that there were lives lost over what is essentially a political spat.

That said, the russian economy is now absolutley shafted, and now the russians have shown thier (military) hand…it will be for decades to come.

Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.

I’ve just watched highlights of Zelensky’s speech to Congress. It is incredibly powerful. If you watch nothing else of it watch the video he played (though it’s graphic in places). If that could get broadcast in Russia it would make a big impression.

kato – my understanding is that neither Russia nor the US are members of or recognise the ICJ and ICC so the ICJ ruling is symbolic.
Even if Russia were members it’s unlikely they would comply as democratic and legal norms mean nothing to putin.

timbog160
Full Member

Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back?

No wonder they’re doing so well, with Uhtred son of Uhtred getting involved

what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?

Didn’t we gift some Saxons to the Ukrainians a few years back? Beggars can’t be choosers and all that but even then there are limits 😂

I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland!

Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.

I agree.
The bit that concerns is every day means hundreds, even thousands, of deaths and more war crimes being committed.

When I landed in Kabul during the Afghan Conflict they tried to drive us to the British base downtown in Saxons. We declined the kind offer & slept in Hammocks down the back of my herc instead!

The airport also had the benefit of each ISAF nation stationed there having its own bar. The Estonian field hospital bar was my local.

what happened to that convoy approaching Odessa yesterday?

Don’t know, but I’d have thought that a few tanks parked on the coastline would cause a lot of trouble to the landing craft.
Let alone soldiers armed with javelins!
(Although they might be the wrong sort of weapon for dispatching landing craft.)

BBC are reporting that Russians bombed a theatre where 1000-1200 civilians where sheltering.

Are they really complete c++ts or is the Russian intelligence/artillery simply not up-to-the-job and this was a “mistake”?? 😳

Both

I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry.

I liked saxons, they were a piece of piss to fix. Electrically anyway…..

Based on the good old MJ weren’t they? Just googled some reports and the gist of it seems to be the Ukrainians thought they were ‘ok’ if used in very specific circumstances…

In other news reports Ukrainian SF have apparently freed Ivan Federov, the kidnapped mayor of Melitopol. Brilliant news if so and really does make you wonder what the Russians are playing at..

Unless it’s a massive bluff from putin, and he plans to double down, he’s finished, it’s just a matter of time.

No, I don’t think he bluffing. It is his way of saving face. Note that Putin has been saying no NATO in his backyard even before 2014. He kept telling NATO/West that he/Russia was very uncomfortable with NATO/West in his/Russia backyard i.e. encroaching on his territory. He was even telling the reporters/media about this many years ago but the media was just bemused at his reaction.

If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.

Remember Cuban Missile crisis? American went all the way to prevent Russia having a foothold in Western hemisphere. The American tried all tricks to prevent that until today. The same reaction Russian is having now.

What Putin doing now is to empty the cities of people to create his “buffer zone”.

What the world does not want to do now is to push Russia towards China. China is no push over and they have time on their hands.

Do Not encourage countries bordering Russia to join NATO because Russia will not have it unless NATO wants full scale war. Russia is not trying to expand but they also do not like NATO coming near to them.

If Ukraine insists on joining NATO then the world must prepare for a harder and longer war.

Remember the US Foreign Office blob? There is a reason why all the US administrations (both Republicans and Democrats) called the US Foreign Office blob?

I can only imagine the horror of an amphibious assault onto a defended beach with modern weaponry

https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1503309191523536896

NATO stuff is BS (admittedly only my opinion) – Poland, Latvia, Estonia all have borders with Russia and have been in NATO for years. Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that. But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees. Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.

Putin basically sees Ukraine as part of Russia though, and I think genuinely believes that.

Regardless, that is his “territory”. Putin/Russia has never invaded a NATO state but Ukraine’s intention is too close for comfort as Putin is seeing this “territory” shrinking or NATO expanding.

But I agree ultimate outcome is probably some kind of commitment not to join NATO in return for security guarantees.

Yes, not join NATO especially countries bordering or neighbour to Russia.

Of course this is exactly what Ukraine had when it gave up its nukes and look how that has worked out, but at least it might stop the killing for a time.

Putin/Russia would leave them alone as long as there is no sign of wanting to join NATO.

If the NATO/West keeps encouraging Ukrainian people to stand their ground, then be prepared to see many more suffering. Do Not push the people toward the angry bear.

I feel even more sorry for them now, they were shocking. When we moved into the mechanised role at Tidworth we were told that they were originally designed for export, but were so crap no one wanted them, they even had to be up armoured to do public order duties in Northern Ireland

My understanding is that the Ukrainians quite like them, they work as a light armoured taxi and can do 70mph, cheap and cheerful, fit for the role they were employed in

https://defence24.com/armed-forces/useless-saxon-vehicles-surprisingly-useful-in-ukraine-kiev-benefits-from-the-cost-effect-ratio

I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!

Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..

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I agree that is probably the key thing at this moment, but he will keep coming back. Even today he admitted that would not be the ‘final solution’. I don’t know if those words have the same meaning in Russian or whether something was lost in translation!

Apologies if this was posted earlier but it did make me chuckle..

There are some areas that are of strategic importance to Russia/Putin and he considers that “his territory”. Do you not think Putin/Russia can also feel threaten?
He does not want Tomahawks stationed next to him (because NATO can have them stationed there) put it this way. Putin actually mentioned Tomahawks to the media.

Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.

Biden has officially called Putin a war criminal, not sure it’ll bother this particular Godfather.

Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.

Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.

I don’t think he did.

I don’t think he did.

Check this article … NYTimes Op-ed by Putin Sept 11, 2013.

If the Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop then NATO/West really need to assure Putin he has his buffer zone.

The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations. Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?

If he withdraws, he’ll only have shown that he’s not the mafia mastermind we thought, he’s a deluded madman chasing decades-old USSR dreams. That he’s surrounded himself with yes-men who have enabled this shit-show.

Maybe some of those “yes men” have been waiting for him to do something stupid.

to create his “buffer zone”

Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…

a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power

b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home

[ EDIT: it’s not really either/or, is it ]

Even Obama has a good relationship with Putin.

Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.

Russia is not trying to expand

Chewkw – I’ve read your posts on this thread with interest – its been good to have your perspective, but ^^^^ is bobbins. Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him – Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.

Russia doesn’t own all these other countries, and they don’t want him there. If he can’t see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.

The problem with Russian buffer zones is that they appear to come with Russian backed puppet governments against the wishes of their populations.

You can have a puppet government or a full scale war. Choose.

Why on Earth do you suppose there has been an almighty scramble to achieve the requirements to join NATO by many ex-USSR countries?

Because they have a big bear next to them and they are afraid of being devoured so that balance of power must be maintained. But when that “balance” of power starts to creep into the bear’s territory that’s when the bear takes a swipe at them. If they are not that close to the bear then the bear cannot reach them.

Russia borders a hell of a lot of countries… so… either…

a) all those countries should feel threatened by Russia if not heavily defended or aligned to a major world power

b) it’s an excuse to increase the RF by force, bringing a significant region into his empire, and look strong at home

They have No strategic importance to Russia unlike Ukraine.

Well, he absolutely tried to have one. A lot has happened since then. Obama was naive/hopeful.

Actually it is the Blob that dictated to Obama what he could/could not do …

Putin is imperialist and wants vassal states surrounding him – Syria, Belarus, the enclaves in Georgia/Moldova/Ukraine.

Apart from Syria the rest are strategic importance to Russia.

Notice NATO did not even bother about Syria? They actually “give” Syria to Russia because it is of no strategic importance to NATO.

Russia doesn’t own all these other countries, and they don’t want him there. If he can’t see that his behaviour towards his neighbours pushes them into the arms of NATO to avoid being invaded, then he is as stupid as he is crazy.

Own or not does Not even come into the equation. If they are neighbouring to a big bear they better not “poke” the bear. Nobody will come to their aid unless they want a full scale war.