Ukraine

I agree -still amazed she was allowed out to hold a press conference at all. I thought she would just disappear.

Isn’t Putins preference to contract out his extra-judicial killings? Having her die in custody is way too obvious

If I was her, I wouldn’t be starting any box sets

I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!

So she worked for the main Russian TV channel for many years, and only now decided to protest, and gets the equivalent of a slap on the wrist (when others holding blank sheets of paper up in public get worse)?

Sounds like a good way to stop western media showing pictures of dead children and burning houses…

There are reports on Twitter of a large Russian navy flotilla nearing Odessa. I’m not able to link atm.

I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!

I believe that’s just for the video she made…. Not for the TV appearance.

Apparently so

Video recorded 20 minutes ago in the village of Mirnoye, in the Belyaevsky district, very close to Odessa. According to c/a fonte, Russian ships are shelling the coast.

Global News – Ukraine#odessa #RussiaUkraineCrisis pic.twitter.com/nkFizEAjCb

— The Intrepid Journalism (@Vegz05) March 15, 2022

Russian Navy Landing Ships Seen Approaching Ukrainian Coast Near Odessa https://t.co/gg6PeRbqFk

— Klart Skepp – – . .??????? (@klart_skepp) March 15, 2022

Hero…

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1501822751031578627?s=21

blokeuptheroad
Full Member
Zelenskyy appears to be softening his position on Ukraine joining NATO. A key concession, hopefully this will bring a ceasefire closer in the ongoing talks.

I think that is a massive development!

It gives Putin the way out of this. Most importantly it could save a huge amount of lives.

The sanctions should continue either way. Putin must go now, even if he stops the invasion tomorrow.

Get Putin removed, let huge investment flood into Ukraine… let it slowly edge closer to Europe… join the EU at some point… and (shhhh…) let it join NATO at some point if it wishes. No, if it’s necessary depending upon Russia’s “direction” at the time.

Most important though, is joining the EU.

I believe that’s just for the video she made…. Not for the TV appearance.

That was the way I’d heard it reported which made me think it was Part 1.

Zelensky stepping back from NATO “should” be the win that Putin needs to start rolling back. I fear it won’t be though.

Sooooo, if Ukraine don’t join NATO, is there anything specifically preventing it from joining the EU?

Maybe the EU super-army calls from a few years ago start to make sense…

Also, if Moldova happened to join EU then Putin invaded/installed a puppet government, how would the EU respond to such “infiltration”?

(All conjecture, I know…)

Sooooo, if Ukraine don’t join NATO, is there anything specifically preventing it from joining the EU?

Maybe the EU super-army calls from a few years ago start to make sense…

I think that some kind of EU army or European defence pact looks more attractive now.  Possibly even replacing NATO.  Especially with Germany’s change in stance and public opinion in neutral countries like Finland, Sweden and Switzerland becoming a bit more hawkish in light of Putin’s actions.  Germany are going to have a very effective military if they follow through on recent defence spending commitments.  Arguably, If everyone signed up it could provide a credible defence against Russia, without being underwritten by the US.  This could appeal to the US who have long called for Europe to do more towards their own defence and make it appear less threatening to Russia without the US in the driving seat.  The US have been a bit luke warm about NATO anyway, looking more towards the Asia Pacific area.  Idle musings, might be a hundred reasons I’ve overlooked why it wouldn’t work.

As long as Ukraine satisfy EU joining criteria and their joining isn’t vetoed the only thing stopping them might be more pressure from their nasty neighbour. Hopefully regime change in Russia might negate that.

Oh, CNN reporting that given the huge commitment Germany has just given to funding its military, it will likely have the 3rd biggest military in the world.

Amazing and (ironically given their history) somewhat reassuring I suspect for us and Europe.

What an odd world.

Ha! As if to reiterate what I posted above.

Germany will buy US-made F-35 fighter jets as it ramps up military spending after Russia’s Ukraine invasion

It’s just sad that countries will be spending all this money that could have been spent improving people’s lives but that’s the world we currently live in.

It’s the world we’ve always lived in. The human race has an attachment to war.

On France 24 this morning ( fantastic news output btw) a politician from Poland was saying the EU army or joint force is a must now. An EU army was aways going to be the piont where Putin went into a western facing country or so I believed, I was aways against the idea BUT I was wrong Putin has done this anyway. So an EU army or at least huge joint strategy is needed now.
What it looks like with Germany spending so much cash on it’s army is anyones guess. Or the USA and uk go back into barracks in Munster/ Poland en mass.

Well done Putin not many feet left to shoot yourself in.
Destruction of the economy, rouge state and your army has been shown less than credible if going up against a major well equipped nation nevermind NATO.
And the USA did not fire a shot.

Has EU membersip been raised in the negotiations yet?

A couple of weeks back I saw an ex NATO staffer say that Putin sees the EU and its twin promise of democracy and economic prosperity as a greater threat than NATO.

I can understand why Putin would see it that way, If Ukraine drops its application to join NATO but succeeds in joining the EU, Putin could project that as a victory to a home audience (if accompanied by territorial gains) but it would be a deep underlying wound for Putin personally and wouldn’t necessarily bode well for long term peace.

I’ve always thought an EU army would be an advantage of EU membership and not a negative. Id imagine that Europe is looking east to Russia and west to the US and realising that its interests are served by neither. Imagine if Trump mk2 is elected in 2024. It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US. Which is great.
It would be even better if some of the high-end manufacturing was returned from China and investment made in Ukraine so that the prosperity from Foxconn factories and EV or microchip production lines is brought to Eastern Europe.

It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.

It’s a lot easier to imagine now that the pesky Brits can’t interfere 😉

Russian Navy Landing Ships Seen Approaching Ukrainian Coast Near Odessa

Amphibious assault with no air supremacy or element of surprise, and defenders potentially armed with javelins? Wouldn’t want to be on the first landing craft, or the first 20, tbh.

It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.

EU Superstate, Equal in what sense?

Economically , maybe.

Conventional military , maybe.

Nuclear power, no.

Now a European Alliance,

Yes,
Yes,
Maybe

Ukranians have their own anti ship missiles

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neptune_(cruise_missile)

They’re going to be tested soon

**UPDATE**

Further to the story of the Russian Navy warships seen approaching Odessa earlier today -> https://t.co/ZB1oAiOThd

Closer examination reveals clear signs that the lead vessel of the column of landing ships was acting as a minesweeper, towing a sweeping device. pic.twitter.com/aCr5eOK8QK

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) March 15, 2022

inkster
Free Member
Has EU membersip been raised in the negotiations yet?

A couple of weeks back I saw an ex NATO staffer say that Putin sees the EU and its twin promise of democracy and economic prosperity as a greater threat than NATO.

Yep, I think Putin sees EU membership juat as big a threat. However, after regime change (in the medium term or sooner I hope…) it’s a lot harder to “market” that to his people as a threat unlike the the manufactured threat of it joining NATO, which he can not plausibly say.

Not that he needs much justification.

We need to be rid of him.

Everything I have read about an EU army has been more along a cordonation of member states military with some structure to allow coordinated deployment (much like most of the EU) rather than the EU army that papers try to present as a army like the US or other nation state army. For instance I don’t think there would be the option of joining the EU army, or even there being EU ships, tanks etc with an EU general in control. More mechanisms put in place to facilitate United responses easier.

@TheBrick, that’s pretty much nail on the head. But I do enjoy reading the media scare stories they used to drum up.

It feels like the EU is about to become a more unified superstate that is the equal of China and the US.

I fear you have rose tinted spectacles

Hungary and Poland on the naughty step, there will be a push back from the small states that don’t want to spend on defence, Germany getting more muscular in its foreign policy will be unwelcome (who appointed them Billy Big Bawes to paraphrase), etc etc

Basics like what will be the EU “army” language with be a bun fight between the French and the Germans etc etc

with some structure to allow coordinated deployment

Just more bloated senior command and not enough bayonets, airlift, drones and trucks

Watching the Fins on Newsnight discussing NATO membership, how quick things change in the lifetime of this thread

Superb take on where Ukraine is now and it might, might not be as bleak as we think regarding a cessation of hostilities.

Ukraine: Putin will search for a way to save face

A little except:

So what will make President Putin come out of this disastrous war looking good in the eyes of Russia’s majority? Firstly, an assurance, perhaps even to be written into Ukraine’s constitution, that it has no intention of joining Nato in the foreseeable future. President Zelensky has already prepared the way for this, by asking Nato for something it couldn’t agree to (establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine), then criticising the alliance for letting him down on this, and finally musing out loud that he wasn’t sure that if Nato behaved like this, it was actually worth joining. As clever and wise political positioning goes, it doesn’t get much better than this. Nato gets the blame, which it can easily cope with, and Ukraine gets the freedom to act as it wants.

It continues to be more horrific. So many thousands have been killed, cities being flattened slowly, full on siege tactics and growing stories of war crimes. 🙁

We’ve got to find a way for Russia to back down because Putin can save face somehow.

Russia it seems launched this conflict afflicted by a short war illusion. Some western observers may also be suffering it.

— Patrick Porter (@PatPorter76) March 15, 2022

Any ‘agreement’ signed by putin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

Germany getting more muscular in its foreign policy will be unwelcome (who appointed them Billy Big Bawes to paraphrase), etc etc

The Bundeswehr forming a key component of European defence isn’t a new thing in modern history. I’ve not seen anything to suggest it’s going to dramatically shift German foreign policy yet beyond what was in place for West Germany. Are there any statements on the from Germany?

Second biggest spender in NATO quite regularly during the Cold War.

As an aside, a brilliant Lego Zelenski and tiny Molatov cocktails have been produced as a fundraiser https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/lego-retailer-raised-over-16000-to-support-ukraine-selling-zelensky-molotov-cocktails-minifigures/
I tried to buy one but too late…

Also I did a very unhelpful join the dots bit of thinking:
False flag chemical or nuclear incident announced by US (they have preempted things before)
Klitchko announces 2 days of curfew
Zelinsky and Polish, Czech and Slovak ministers meet in Kyiv and go by train…

Sometimes waking at 3am not being able to sleep is not good at all.

There’s not much to laugh about in all of this, but this Twitter feed does provide the occasional welcome smirk 🙂

Day 21 of my 3 day war. Dreamed I was naked except for pink pussy riot mask & chased thru Kremlin by Stalin shouting "YOU DESTROYED EVERYTHING I BUILT"

I remain master strategist.

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) March 16, 2022

Any ‘agreement’ signed by putin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

Exactly. A ceasefire would just be an opportunity for Russia to regroup and rearm before a fresh attack. Ukraine knows this. The only ceasefire they are going to accept is one where they are militarily powerful enough to repel any invasion. That basically means they won’t accept a treaty until after they have repelled the current invasion.

Any ‘agreement’ signed by putin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

Indeed. Whatever happens, Russia is now a complete rogue state who nobody, whether state or private sector, will touch with a bargepole. Their word is worthless.

A ceasefire would indeed be an opportunity for Russian forces to regroup, but would also allow Ukraine to do so. Also, well they’ve had quite a bit of time to regroup already and don’t seem to have done so. Talk of another big push on Kyiv, but how many times have we heard that?

The amphibious force off Odesa is another good example of where they can’t seem to decide what to do. It must be pretty demoralising being sat on a ship for days on end waiting for the ground forces to get their act together. A contested beach landing without support from the land side, without air superiority, and without a huge naval bombardment – that would just be suicide.

Indeed. Whatever happens, Russia is now a complete rogue state who nobody, whether state or private sector, will touch with a bargepole. Their word is worthless.

I’m sure global britain will see this as a wonderful business opportunity.

Basics like what will be the EU “army” language

Ironically English now must be a hot favourite for universal EU language because it’s no longer favouring any member state 🙂

Moley you’re a genius 😂

World beating language!

You also have the issues around the use of force, some nations may have very specific rules depending on their legal arrangements, the UK at the most basic level is drawn from UK law.

An example, US forces can use force to protect equipment, the UK cannot. There are many other examples from experience, that’s before we get to doctrine that the various nations favour.

As a sidebar, I really enjoyed working with the Danish, really chill bunch of soldiers with equally chill officer corps.

Basics like what will be the EU “army” language with be a bun fight between the French and the Germans etc etc