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What's the point of Russia doing this? Is Putin having a tantrum? Has no-one ever said "no" to him before?
This just makes things worse when inevitably they have to face up to reality.
Ukraine was calling for about $300Bn in reparations a few days ago - that actually seems like quite a reasonable request. But this kind of thing just adds to the final bill for Putin's party.
this event, which to be fair is organised by the left, includes no Ukrainian input on the panel but does include someone banned from entering Ukraine for his pro Kremlin views. I can imagine how enraged Ukrainians would be by this, as evidenced by some of the comments.
Exactly. It's an embarrassment (although I am assuming they aren't going to conclude that we should send weapons and money to Ukraine so that they can expel Russian forces, if they do, credit to them.)
What do we make of Putins demand that the oligarchs fund and build their own armies?
Putin flees Moscow.
Goat deflowerers are being sent to round up Russian army deserters.
Regional deputies are issuing letter of no confidence.
There are no supplies for an army (and that’s ignoring the lack of willing volunteers).
Ukraine has struck strategic military targets in Russia.
There’s been a fair bit of chatter on all of those topics some of which may or may not be true but all seem to have some grounding in truth. So what happens now?
What are goat deflowerers?
Wild stab in the dark here, but I'm going to guess it's a derogatory term for Muslims, probably Chechens.
Enquiring minds want to know. ^^^^ 🤷♂️
ISW is reporting the surrender negotiations (caveated) - they’re usually reliable.
Thats a derogatory term for Kadyrov's Tik Tok Battalion. Ive not seen it used more generally but im sure someone has.
Id post THAT night vision video with the goat.... but id really rather not. (Which has to be faked anyway)
What’s the point of Russia doing this? Is Putin having a tantrum? Has no-one ever said “no” to him before?
Ukraine has been an embarrassment to Putin - after the breakup of the soviet union former soviet states have flourished and Russia has stagnated. particularly during the time of Putin's leadership. Ukraininans have been enjoying a much better quality of life that their Russian neighbours. So although Putin has been calling this a 'liberation' he's been destroying infrastructure and shopping malls and housing since the start - its never been the aim for life to be better there in future. But its easier to make things worse in Ukraine than it is to make things better in Russia
If you think back to the Vietnam war there was a change of strategy by the US from one for winning to one for losing with their interests in mind. The campaign of carpet bombing was nothing other than vandalism it wasn't an effort to win - they just wanted there to be nothing for the winners - it was just covering the landscape in craters and unexploded ordinance so that it would be un-farmable - a way of ensuring poverty in the country for generations to come.
I’m surprised that UA has not moved past the Oskil river and further pressed its advantage. I supposed an operational pause is needed for supply lines to catch up with the advance.
Thats a derogatory term for Kadyrov’s Tik Tok Battalion. Ive not seen it used more generally but im sure someone has.
There are loads of Ukrainian trolling memes suggesting Kadyrov has 'a fondness' for goats. The guy seems a nasty piece of work but I've not seen any evidence of that. It does sometimes seem to be extended to Chechen fighters generally, which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.
Yes I've seen this meme
https://twitter.com/MariuszCieslins/status/1517830002137571329?t=v3fIL_J7lP0D9zIiXJL0vQ&s=19
which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.
No arguing with that.
how did we get from a hypothetical Russia being defeated by Ukraine on Ukrainian territory to ‘you’ (do you mean me, Ukraine, the West) moving to to Asia and threatening China? That’s some leap and not what we were talking about.
I think Chewkw's point depends on certain conspiracist assumptions. Viz:
1. This is actually a proxy war between Russia and NATO/The USA/The West/etc etc
2. So if Russia is defeated and has settlement terms dictated to it, these terms are actually NATO/The USA's
3. Thus, if forced to accept these terms, Russia now becomes some kind of vassal state of NATO/The West
If we accept the above premise, it does logically follow that China would be unhappy with the sudden influx of US troops and Walmarts and Aircraft Carriers and branches of Dick's Sporting Goods that would shortly appear on its Siberian border. Understandably. But it's all a little bit fantastical.
Echoes of Balaklava Company and the Thin Red Line shortly?
which despite the fact they have no business in Ukraine, is borderline racist and pretty unpleasant.
They are at war, this isn't some diversity and inclusion seminar. 🤦♂️
If we accept the above premise, it does logically follow that China would be unhappy with the sudden influx of US troops and Walmarts and Aircraft Carriers and branches of Dick’s Sporting Goods that would shortly appear on its Siberian border. Understandably. But it’s all a little bit fantastical.
US companies where operating freely in Russia and Ukraine before this conflict so not sure how much will change if Russia is defeated. Apart from Starbucks and Maccies wanting their businesses back.
But it’s all a little bit fantastical.
The whole idea that NATO is a puppet-master pulling strings is mostly just a fantasy. NATO and the other U.S. alliances (Japan, South Korea, etc.) are really quite uneasy marriages of convenience. Countries bordering China and Russia don't trust them and see an alliance with the U.S. as a better choice, but they are also suspicious and resentful of the U.S. and have their own agendas that are somewhat in conflict with the U.S. agenda. If Russia, China, and North Korea weren't so belligerent, the Western liberal alliances probably would have faded away. The idea that the U.S. just snaps its fingers and its allies do its bidding has no basis in reality.
They are at war, this isn’t some diversity and inclusion seminar.
Those that consider goat ****er an insult are in fact demonising the goat ****ing community
Maybe they need to go to a diversity and inclusion workshop to learn how to be less judgemental towards people who love goats a little too much?
They are at war, this isn’t some diversity and inclusion seminar. 🤦♂️
Well thanks for explaining that to me. I'm a cheerleader for the right of Ukraine to defend their sovereignty with all the force available to them. But, Ukraine has had a problem with the extreme right in the past, and though exaggerated that has been weaponised by Putin and used as one of the trumped up reasons for the invasion. In light of that, maybe Ukrainian memes implying muslims are all fond of bestiality isn't the best ploy. Just a thought.
it does not explicitly mention religion just an individual and his acolytes
it does not explicitly mention religion just an individual and his acolytes
It's directed towards Chechens who are largely muslim and plays on some unpleasant national stereotypes.
The whole idea that NATO is a puppet-master pulling strings is mostly just a fantasy
Although ive no doubt NATO is making the most of it.
Although ive no doubt NATO is making the most of it.
When something like this happens, every country has to think about what their national interests are and how they can best deal with the situation. The West has generally decided that supporting a democracy that was invaded by a violent autocracy was the best course of action. That's not the same as being a puppet-master pulling the strings, it just happened that Ukraine's self-interest aligned with the other democracies.
I wonder why they didn't align in 2014?
When something like this happens
Well, quite.
You can accept an aggressively expansionist authoritarian state expanding on your door step.
Or you can do something to contain it.
I wonder why they didn’t align in 2014?
It's all about the situation at the time I guess. Back in 2014 the Russians were a bit more 'subtle' about what was happening. Plausible deniability and all that. In addition there was a feeling that the Crimea really was (and wanted to be) a part of Russia (gifted by Stalin etc). In addition the Donbas was seen as an internal conflict (albeit supported logistically by the Russians - but then the West has form for supporting domestic insurgencies when deemed appropriate to our interests) which was up to the Ukrainians to resolve.
Because the Russians were circumspect enough about their involvement we were left with a situation whereby the only way we could be meaningfully involved would have been to put boots on the ground. We aren't going to now and certainly weren't then.
However what we did do was start to invest significantly in the training and development of the Ukrainian army, as well as supplying them with advanced weaponry. After all those tactics and anti tank missiles that pushed the Russians back from Kiev didn't just materialise overnight.
As we now know, Putin’s big mistake was to push the West into a position whereby we were forced to get involved. That and seriously underestimate the Ukrainian reaction whilst seriously overestimating his own army's capabilities.
I think, also, Ukraine had a history of serious corruption and it wasn't obvious that military support would achieve anything. A big part of Ukraine's success has been that the people chose democracy and wanted to be like a European country. The West urged them to deal with the corruption problem and provided support for creating a more professional army, but it was the Ukrainians who actually did the work of creating a functional democracy because they didn't want to be like Russia. With hindsight, it seems inevitable that things would turn out the way they have, but back in 2014, it was not so clear. History is full of the U.S. supporting governments that turned out to be worse than the ones they replaced, Ukraine is one of the shining counterexamples.
^^Two great posts 👍
"Still going to be a bloody rough winter for Ukraine. I don’t see Putin doing a U turn anytime soon. He doesn’t care how many (of either nationality) he sends to the meat grinder."
The same about/Blair / Obama /Bush etc and many other world leaders .
I think the West only really woke up and aligned when it was clear Ukraine were going all in to resist and fight the invasion and the conflict was going to be bloody. If Russia had walked into Kyiv with no shots fired I they wouldn't be supported in the same way at all. I think when it was obvious Ukraine was willing to fight the West had to decide to just stand by and watch or to support Ukraine with arms.
The same about/Blair / Obama /Bush etc and many other world leaders .
You'll find many here that were vocally against what Bush, Blair and others have done abroad... but still think Ukraine should be helped to stand against the invasion by Putin. Have a read of the thread.
What's with the spaces before full stops thing? I've noticed you do that a lot. What's your first language?
so far
What’s your first language?
Binary ...
let me think...
He doesn’t care how many (of either nationality) he sends to the meat grinder.”
The same about/Blair / Obama /Bush etc and many other world leaders .
I'm not a fan of Bush or Blair, Obama was quite different from those two. However, Putin is an order of magnitude worse than any Western leader since the Vietnam war, and even then, he's still worse (because he won't quit peacefully like Johnson and Nixon did). The invasion of Iraq was a colossal blunder, but the West's military strategy was not to just indiscriminately murder and torture civilians in the way that Russia's strategy has been. Yes, a lot of civilians died, that will always happen when there's warfare in urban areas, but that's not the same thing at all as simply telling your soldiers to loot, murder, and rape on a massive scale as the central part of your strategy.
Your boy Putin is up there with Hitler and Stalin on the war crimes list, plus he's losing this war badly. You're on a hiding to nothing trying to pretend otherwise.
Binary …
😂
I think when it was obvious Ukraine was willing to fight the West had to decide to just stand by and watch or to support Ukraine with arms.
There had been some support prior to the start of the war (lots of trainers over there since 2014) but if you look back to just prior to it the general expert consensus was that the Russians would win the conventional war quickly although there would be a good chance of it ending up as a guerrilla war. In which case the NLAWs and other light weapons would still be very useful for the Ukrainians whereas something like a HIMAR would just be a donation to the Russians.
After the Russian decapitation strike failed and it became obvious the Russians were performing about as far below expectations as the Ukrainians were exceeding expectations it then became more viable to start providing the heavy weapons.
There was also strong resistance to provoking Russia, which is why NATO would never have accepted Ukraine and why they wouldn't sell Ukraine long range missiles.
Ironically once Putin evaded the threat of provoking the bear was removed, now there's talk of ever more powerful weapons being sent to Ukrainian AF
He is far cleverer than just about anyone else and very well trained .
Yes he is a master strategist. A 4D chess player of the highest order.
His military campaign in Ukraine has been a work of genius.
I spotted "18D Chess Player" earlier, quite liked that one.
His military campaign in Ukraine has been a work of genius.
Might as well talk to your toaster.
Putin loses NOthing. he is not the sort of man that worries .AS long as he lives , he will live well . He has way too much money and way many contacts and favours . The west allowed him to grow into a huge machine . His control over things is unreal. fuelled by fear or greed . Many take the greed side as its well rewarded . Even low grade “friends” of him in London etc receive roughly £200k cash a month to spend and all their rents paid for .These rents can be £15k a week . He is far cleverer than just about anyone else and very well trained . Ruthless and one of the best “gangster Type” leaders the world has ever seen . Unless someone kills him, we will be dealing with a very dangerous situation .And if someone does kill him….. They will not do it to restore the country etc , they will do it to be “Gangster number 1” .
Pure comedy genius.
So how's the Swinley riding going, BTW?
Thats the thing, When did I say I was going to Swinley Forests ?
So how’s the Swinley riding going, BTW?
I assume they will be doing it on Zwift 😉
Thats the thing, When did I say I was going to Swinley Forests ?
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/swinley-forest-early-mornings-weekends/
36DD chess morelike
This tbo thing is all very bizzare. I wish it would FO as it's derailing a useful thread. Which I suppose is the intent.
What’s with the spaces before full stops thing? I’ve noticed you do that a lot. What’s your first language?
Russian obvs! Doubt there's many native English speakers in St Petersburg. But let's not educate (let alone feed) the troll. He's trying his hardest, but he's about as credible as a chocolate teapot. And as useful. Still, he probably has a minimum number of posts to fulfill on a daily basis, so we can expect some more nonsense in due course.
As for our resolve. Can't speak for other European countries, but for all our faults, as a nation we've never liked megalomaniac jumped-up dictators. And we have a particular dislike for Nazis. And be under no illusions, Putin's regime is a Nazi regime, viz: Destruction of free press, crushing of free judiciary, jailing of political opponents, demonisation of population groupings (internal and external) to create a unity if hate, slavish devotion to a fatherland type ideal etc etc.
We've shown before (and by we I mean the man and woman in the street) that we'll put up with years of degradation and devastation of our living standards in order to fight for the greater good. And I'd like to think we'll do it again. And furthermore we'll do it in the knowledge that whatever hardships we face, they are nothing compared to what the Ukrainians are/will be facing and we'll do it in the knowledge that facing down a murderous dictator like Putin is until in everyone's (including the Russians') best interests
too bloody old
Free Member
You seem to be delusional .
too bloody old
Free Member
Putin loses NOthing. he is not the sort of man that worries .
LOL. This was Putin when he got news that his army had just run away and left all their weapons behind for Ukraine.
a few people seem so insecure they think everyone is a Bot /troll
No, just you. You've been asked several times, what's your first language?
This tbo thing is all very bizzare. I wish it would FO as it’s derailing a useful thread. Which I suppose is the intent.
It'll only get derailed if anyone responds to him! Honestly, just ignore completely and it'll just be the odd random interjection that makes even less sense. I realise me even posting this is perpetuating the problem. 🙄
FFS, can we get the thread back on topic please?
No, just you. You’ve been asked several times, what’s your first language?
Please, just stop engaging it - that's EXACTLY what it's hoping to achieve
A question for the armchair warriors on here.
Should we (NATO) train UAF on NATO MBT's and aircraft over the winter, ready for a spring offensive?
Or are the logistics and maintenance too much for them to learn in a few months?
From what happened in the Gulf Wars, surely a load of Challengers, Abrams and Leopards would tear up those T-72's?
FFS, can we get the thread back on topic please?
Actually I was going to derail it a bit in a different direction. Sorry!
Can one of the resident Geopolitics experts ELI5 the background of Armenia / Azerbaijan? I know of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, and that RU is an ally of Armenia, but what's the wider context? Turkey are broadly pro-Azerbaijan? And Iran aren't?
This tbo thing is all very bizzare. I wish it would FO as it’s derailing a useful thread. Which I suppose is the intent.
Which is also why NAFO exists, except instead of having to rely on bots and employees. You get volunteers, and theyre all unique.
Can one of the resident Geopolitics experts ELI5 the background of Armenia / Azerbaijan?
yes, I'd like to know the same. In a different thread please if it's genuinely unrelated or likely to be distracting.
Cant vouch for any of this but might be worth a look
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1569438991409348611?t=Hq2V-8eY0Rqfv0iB0izWpw&s=19
Edit, just followed one of those handles and found a report on a Ukrainian family identifying their murdered father as he was being exhumed. So you may want to give that a pass.
The analysis handle.
All good questions and warrant their own thread 🤷♂️
Should we (NATO) train UAF on NATO MBT’s and aircraft over the winter, ready for a spring offensive?
Or are the logistics and maintenance too much for them to learn in a few months?
My understanding is that the American gear is extremely maintenance intensive and the U.S. military rely on civilian contractors for most of it. That means that Ukraine would need to sort out contracts for maintenance. I think German armour would be much better for Ukraine's needs, but I don't know much about tanks and armoured vehicles, just that the turbine engine in the Abrams is expensive to run and maintain. HIMARS can handle the interdiction stuff much more cheaply than an F16 anyway, best to just stick with that.
Javelin's etc seem to be making a good mess of the Russian's tanks anyway.
Drones... Cheaper , safer . Who know what Drone technology is been used by Ukraine or other SF troop units etc there. But given state of art stuff or others using them on Ukraines behalf is a lot better than Tanks etc .
Once this is officially over I hope that Ukraine gets invited to be a part of NATO and as part of its economic recovery it becomes part of the EU.
When Putin gets ousted, what happens? Will whoever takes over go 'we're under new management, let's renegotiate those sanctions' and the world just treats them like they did before?
Is there an opportunity to give them a chance at democracy and better align their politics with the rest of the world?
Eg we'll lift some sanctions if Russia agrees to open elections with EU/US/whoever representatives over seeing them?
Should we (NATO) train UAF on NATO MBT’s and aircraft over the winter, ready for a spring offensive?
I would also go with maintenance and supply being a problem. That said I wouldnt be surprised if some are being trained up on F-16s or similar less for a spring offensive but longer term.
Armchair Arms Dealer says Saab Gripen.
Lower maintenance, easier to disperse.
My thoughts are not my own.
Seems reasonable. Good bit of kit, that.
This is unbelievable
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515?t=cpJtzZqph9dtDdcD_PYO8A&s=19
Should we (NATO) train UAF on NATO MBT’s and aircraft over the winter, ready for a spring offensive?
I'm not sure that it's either simple or effective. It's not just drivers that you'll need but the logistics, the technicians, the stores of weapons and spares, refuelling (especially in-flight refuelling) etc, etc.
Some of the more up to date systems might have to be removed for reasons of operational security and ease of training. It'll take months just to sort the admin and logistics; don't forget that you'll have to supply everything because Soviet kit won't fit in the barrels and talk to the western kit
The German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has been taking a kicking in the media for refusing to send Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) and MBTs until a consensus has been reached in the west. She's been accused of lying because Oz has supplied the Bushmaster, but she's correct; the Bushmaster isn't classed as an IFV in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe because the weaponry is too small.
Far better IMHO to support UKR in its use of Soviet IFVs and MBTs (they build them) and help out with logistics, maintenance and supplies from other former Soviet NATO members.
Similarly with the aircraft; UKR know how to fight with the Soviet kit.
Update the former Soviet NATO members to NATO kit which enables them to integrate better and sort UKR out as and when they join NATO and the EU
This is unbelievable
I'm actually amazed that any of them actually stayed this long, assumed they all fled after the airbase attack.
A lot of supposition & rumour but the above could be related to this
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1569387369945513984?t=1ukGw9Adtgk0f_MOnIpg_g&s=19
Manchester Guardian has a decent little article that has some of the background to the Armenian/Azerbaijan dust up.
I really don't remember a 2020 six week war! Suppose it was overtaken by Covid news.
Eg we’ll lift some sanctions if Russia agrees to open elections with EU/US/whoever representatives over seeing them?
Possibly. But Putin is only in this for himself. And that is purely based on greed and ideas of his legacy.
Russia will not surrender to the point where the west can place the terms on to Russia. This is not like WW2 where Germany was made to unconditionally surrender because it had no choice. Ukraine is not going to go all the way to Moscow and make Putin's regime untenable. Russia will still have an army.
The only hope we have is the Russian people revolting when sanctions really start biting. Whether Putin gives a shit is another matter.
Can't see the sanctions going anywhere anytime soon
A lot of supposition & rumour but the above could be related to this
It seems that is August footage of the airfield attack in Crimea. Trent Telenko (Great name BTW) later retracts that tweet and admits he got taken in by it.
The only hope we have is the Russian people revolting when sanctions really start biting.
Although we've not heard much about it recently, there was quite a lot of unrest about Putin in the eastern regions a while back. If the military getting their arse handed them results in a lot of dead soldiers or more criticism from regional leaders, this hopefully this will expand and start a revolt sooner. Just hope it doesn't end in military violence against civilians.
The US has 400 HIMARS systems, they should send them all.
The US has 400 HIMARS systems, they should send them all.
Ammo is going to be the problem. They are already working through the stockpile especially since they have the M270s (same ammo but tracked vehicles instead) as well.
Putin is assembling his most elite troops
https://twitter.com/PatrickLiberal/status/1569692251621670912?t=P_n_MUXMxxDd4qj5OGNxSQ&s=19
I do feel that jigsaw pieces are being put in, and perhaps we are at the point where the picture is clearer and there are only a few hundred pieces of a 5000 piece puzzle to get in place...
I do feel that jigsaw pieces are being put in, and perhaps we are at the point where the picture is clearer and there are only a few hundred pieces of a 5000 piece puzzle to get in place…
Ah but that's the slowest bit! You've done all the interesting stuff and now there's just a load of identical blue pieces to finish the sky off. Nightmare. Takes ages.