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  • Ukraine
  • @metaam, the ‘Trump was a lying con man who fooled his extremely dumb followers’ thread? Comedy gold in there for sure.

    binners
    Full Member

    The “anti-net-zero” conspiracy stuff is going on in the UK as well. Stay of Social Media to keep your faith in people.

    Its all being advocated by a familiar line-up of headbangers, all tainted by Russian Money.

    Why on earth would the interests of a violent dictatorship, presently needing to fund a war, who’s only income is fossil fuel exports, be interested in fuelling climate change deniers in the UK? Its a complete mystery.

    Nigel Farage’s hard-right faction won Brexit. Now net zero is in its sights

    In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, there is a comfy and complacent view around that the links between rightwing populists and Putin will hasten their downfall.These people do indeed look suddenly wrongfooted and nervous – but Farage and his allies play by a different set of rules, partly because they do not have to worry about parliamentary representation and any aspiration to power (and, therefore, responsibility). Because they have been shut out by our electoral system, they long ago developed a much craftier and more light-footed way of operating: making as much noise as possible outside the normal structures of power and politics while encouraging rebellious Tories, and thereby putting continual pressure on the Conservative party via its right flank.

    I found this photo quite ominous. Ukrainian tank crews positioned to defend against seaborne landings in Odessa. While chaos reigns elsewhere they’re sat waiting.

    It’s the Monument to Duc de Richelieu under the sandbags.

    piemonster
    Free Member

    https://mobile.twitter.com/expatua/status/1503477321642217483

    I believe this is the Russian TV protester.

    Dont browse that Twiiter account if you dont want to see some grim content

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    I see Abramovich had moved his super yacht and personal jet to Russia… as well as himself.

    What a rat. Lucky the Tories game him enough time to get his assets on the move.

    nickc
    Full Member

    So, it turns out that many Russian airline planes are registered in Bermuda under their Civil Aviation Authority (tax, natch) and they (Bermuda) have suspended their certificates of airworthiness for over half of them (about 500 planes) over “safety concerns”. so today Putin signed a law that will make it possible for Russia to nationalize (steal) 500 or more planes that western companies pretty much abandoned in Russia when the restriction of flights took place.

    It also has to be said, lots and lots of people register their airplanes in Bermuda for tax purposes, it’s one of, if not the largest off-shore aircraft registry.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Thanks Piemaster, I was looking for that pre-protest video she shot. Let’s get it embedded here:

    dissonance
    Full Member

    500 or more planes that western companies pretty much abandoned in Russia

    They werent abandoned. They are planes which were leased by western companies to Russian airlines and its that they didnt really have any ability to recover them (I think they got a few back which were in western countries at the time) beyond saying “please fly them back”.
    The use of Bermuda was for the leasing companies benefit apparently there are some other advantages not just tax including in theory better protection against the airline stealing the plane.

    muddy@rseguy
    Full Member

    This goes far beyond private jets, the majority of airliners globally are leased by airlines and the leasing fees are usually paid in dollars. Russia is under sanctions now so has decided to offer to pay the lease fees in Roubles or threaten to “nationalise” the aircraft from the leasing companies. One of the two companies hit by this is based in Bermuda, the other is based in Ireland.

    Remember that the vast majority of these aircraft are Boeing and Airbus models. Russian companies like Illushin and Sukoi do build airlines but they tend to only have a small Russian domestic market. If you look at the safety record of these airliners then you’d probably think twice about flying on them…

    Big issue here is that the leased aircraft now can’t be used outside or Russia or possibly their affiliate countries as they can be legitimately be seized and grounded if the lease fees have been withheld or the lease contract has been broken. The other thing is that if the airworthiness certificates (v important if you feel that safety is important when you fly) are invalidated so the aircraft (and their engines which come from western companies like RR, GE, CFM etc) are both uninsured and out of warranty. Supply of spare parts will be, to put it mildly, an issue. Again, this comes back to the safety factors and international laws that are at the heart of global commercial air travel.

    The Aircraft lease companies involved here are heading for a bunfight with their insurers too as their own exposure looks to be in the region of about $10Bn+.

    Final point here is that Russia can nationalise the leased aircraft but it doesn’t mean they can use them. Once this all is over you can just imagine how willing lease companies are going to be to work with the likes of Aeroflot…

    binners
    Full Member

    Remember that the vast majority of these aircraft are Boeing and Airbus models.

    Boeing and Airbus were two of the first companies to announce they were pulling out of Russia. Without their maintenance and parts contracts that meant, according to Boeing and Airbus, that every single one of those aircraft would be grounded within 2 weeks.

    Those planes might actually physically be in Russia, but they’re not going anywhere as they won’t be airworthy with no parts or maintenance. So that means no internal flights within what is a massive country

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Good article on CCN I think about this, read it lady night.

    As said, those planes won’t be worth much by any definition within weeks.

    It also has huge implications as when Russia (it’s airline/s) tries to lease planes in the future they will understandably be told to **** off.👍

    Putin wants a need “golden age” of the Soviet era… well, it’s happening but not in the way he imagined!

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Ah but with the cavalier attitude to air safety in Russia, they’ll still be in the air for now. If one falls out of the sky they’ll blame the US backed separatists in UzbekiGhaniMeniCaucausstan and say they were using new Decepticon tech provided by Zlenskiiiy’s Nazi friends in Israel

    johndoh
    Free Member

    Lucky the Tories game him enough time to get his assets on the move.

    His wealth is so vast it wouldn’t matter a tiny bit had he not managed to get them out – only vanity and greed made him do it.

    binners
    Full Member

    It also has huge implications as when Russia (it’s airline/s) tries to lease planes in the future they will understandably be told to **** off.

    I think it’ll be safe to say that that will apply to pretty much anything involving sums of money and the honouring of contracts

    He is indeed leading his nation back to the Soviet glory days…

    1917

    avdave2
    Full Member

    It looks like we might have to relinquish the crown of Greatest Act of National Self Harm to Russia.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Poopscoop

    Full Member

    Good article on CCN I think about this, read it lady night

    Lady night? 🤔

    It looks like we might have to relinquish the crown of Greatest Act of National Self Harm to Russia.

    Hold my beer, says Johnson….

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    I hate bloody predictive.😁

    Me too, it’s ducking annoying.

    thols2
    Full Member

    nickc
    Full Member

    Thoughts on casualties

    Looking at the various reports for numbers of Russian casualties/ captured, the Ukrainian MOD numbers are daft, but reputable sources are saying perhaps as many as 5,000 killed/injured, with perhaps as many as an additional 8,000-10,000 captured from a strength of 190,000 Most of which won’t be front line infantry (they’ll be drivers, cooks, artillery gunners, loaders, tank drivers, radio, logistics and so on and on). Maybe as few as 40,000 – 45,000 will be infantry. Normal rule of thumb says an army has a third fighting, a third held, and a third in reserves, replenishing and resting, so that’s about 13,000 soldiers at a time fighting in 4 or 5 battle areas that aren’t joined up, are totally static (so not mutually supportive) and have been since pretty much the beginning of March. Perhaps as much as a third of their fighting infantry capacity gone so far. No aircraft support no helicopter support, or medical evacuation/rescue. And these are some of the  “elite” of the Russian Army This is unsustainable in every sense.

    In country there are estimated to be 20 Generals, 5 of which are known to have been killed so far. That alone is going to have a huge impact on this army’s ability to fight battles against well armed and motivated Ukrainian forces There’s been difficulties with logistics; food, and weaponry and replacement vehicles and all the other things that a army this size needs,  and no new large numbers troops have been to deployed to relive forces who’ve been fighting now for as long as 3 weeks. Again unsustainable in every sense.

    What a waste of all those lives, both Russian soldiers and the civilians that have died, on the absolute nonsense of one man’s vanity victimhood.

    dovebiker
    Full Member

    Do you think we’ll see the Russian’s repurpose these jets like the Cubans did with old American cars from the 1950s with Lada engines? 😜 Speak to anyone who experienced Russian domestic airline travel in the 1990’s – they often felt they were simply lucky not to crash / get out alive. Luckily I managed to dodge the bullet but other colleagues didn’t.

    There was an ex-VCDS Major General on the radio yesterday and having war-gamed the scenarios are predicting that the Russians will reach the point of over-stretch shortly. Believing they’re trying to take Kyiv and then Putin can announce ‘victory’ having ‘secured’ Donbas and established a land bridge to Crimea.

    dissonance
    Full Member

    His wealth is so vast it wouldn’t matter a tiny bit had he not managed to get them out

    I dont know about that. Getting a replacement yacht or plane might be tricky right now no matter no much cash he can offer.

    dissonance
    Full Member

    So that means no internal flights within what is a massive country

    Maybe. Boeing and Airbus might consider them unairworthy in a couple of weeks but so long as you are more relaxed about safety chances are you would be able to keep them going for sometime slowly cannibalising some to keep others going.
    Wouldnt be able to fly them outside of Russia and I definitely wouldnt want to be on one in a few months time or under the flightpath but so long as you are relaxed about the bodycount you could keep things going.

    pk13
    Full Member

    I read Putin also issued safety certificate laws the other day on a news feed.
    As long as the paperwork is in order it’s good.
    Apparently

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Speak to anyone who experienced Russian domestic airline travel in the 1990’s – they often felt they were simply lucky not to crash / get out alive. Luckily I managed to dodge the bullet but other colleagues didn’t.

    MrsMC did a years VSO in Russia in 97-98. They were given strict instructions not to take internal flights.

    thols2
    Full Member

    Probably worth monitoring airplane parts on ebay, might be some bargains coming up.

    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    @binners Glad it’s not just me that’s suspicious of the curious coincidence that the Faragists are now anti-Net Zero and the Russian economy depends almost entirely on fossil fuel.

    Ukrainian tank crews positioned to defend against seaborne landings in Odessa

    I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?

    freeagent
    Free Member

    I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?

    Navy ships are densely packed with all sorts of plant and equipment – there are pipes and cables everywhere.
    there is little chance of a ‘through and through’ but it would make a proper mess inside.

    avdave2
    Full Member

    I had to fly with Aeroflot from Moscow to Paris once, not my choice of airline and I was slightly worried. I needn’t have been, the nice hotel is Moscow gave me food poisoning and I spent the entire flight in a cold sweat, all my clothes soaked through while filling sick bag after sick bag without the slightest concern if we plummeted to earth! One of my colleagues was sat beside me doing the same. I did fell slightly sorry for the other person in our row.

    mrmonkfinger
    Free Member

    Without their maintenance and parts contracts that meant, according to Boeing and Airbus, that every single one of those aircraft would be grounded within 2 weeks

    Been a tough couple of years for the big boys in aviation land.

    With a bunch of possible new sales to replace these aircraft, things are looking up for Boebus.

    ayjaydoubleyou
    Full Member

    I wonder what kind of a mess 125mm APDS would make of a ship? Or would it just go straight through the relatively thin plating and out the other side leaving a neat hole?

    on a warship?

    jeffl
    Full Member

    Googled a Type 45 destroyer. Apparently it has “Kevlar splinter protection, 70 mm magazine/VLS”.

    They’re not designed to slog it out and take multiple hits from big shells like battleships in WW2. They’re designed to strike first and avoid getting hit.

    Bit like a jet fighter.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Zelenskyy appears to be softening his position on Ukraine joining NATO.  A key concession, hopefully this will bring a ceasefire closer in the ongoing talks.  Possibly Putin’s ‘off ramp’.  Even though it was a BS excuse for him, as there was no possibility of them joining anyway.  But if it allows Putin to ‘save face’, maybe no bad thing?

    However even if it’s not NATO, I can’t see how an independent Ukraine (if hopefully, it still exists) can survive in future without some kind of security cooperation with Europe/US.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    All the (industrial) music:

    https://componentrecordings.bandcamp.com/album/for-peace-against-war-who-is-not-a-compilation-for-the-people-of-ukraine

    “For Peace. Against War. Who is not?” is a quote by Susan Sontag, an American writer, filmmaker, philosopher, teacher, and political activist

    All proceeds from the sale of this compilation will be split evenly between the charities Vostok SOS and the Ukrainian Red Cross.

    vostok-sos.org/en/about/mission/ -Vostok SOS
    redcross.org.ua -Ukrainian Red Cross

    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    @ayjaydoubleyou Yes, as @jeffl says much less armour than a WW2 ship of similar size, and definitely much less armour than any NATO tank you can think of, which is what APDS is designed to defeat.

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!

    frankconway
    Free Member

    dan – I don’t think that’s the end of it.

    ayjaydoubleyou
    Full Member

    Seems I was wrong, modern warships have pretty much given up on plate armour. Modern naval combat weapons are too good to even bother to try to withstand a direct hit.

    scuttler
    Full Member

    They’re not designed to slog it out and take multiple hits from big shells like battleships in WW2. They’re designed to strike first and avoid getting hit.

    I lost an hour once watching a youtube documentary on the decision processes for guns vs armour for the various classes of WWII battleships from different countries. Continual tradeoffs of offensive vs defensive vs survivability vs weight vs speed with a smattering of treaty compliance thrown in. Fascinating stuff.

    binners
    Full Member

    I am utterly amazed that TV demo lady has been released with a £300 fine!!

    We’ll see if she’s still alive this time next week

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