hatter
Full MemberThe Kharkiv offensive seems to actually gaining momentum, new reports coming in all the time
It seems (armchair generalling again) that that's what you'd hope for here- they've sought out an exploitable spot and driven at it, the idea isn't to make creeping gains, it's to overwhelm and get past the russian main positions and threaten softer parts. That'd be typified by initial very high intensity fighting with smallish gains, followed by very aggressive fast movement and fast gains/destruction of targets. Slow sustained hardfought gains would look good on paper but probably isn't what Ukraine is aiming for here.
joefm
Free MemberAll the stuff we know about Putins regime and theft, why did we ever think they had a decent army?
Cynical me thinks partly it was in a lot of people's interests to exaggerate the threat, in order to keep us buying weapons to fight them.
Has anyone thought of saying to Putin "Mr. President, the Ukrainians are coming. Look out of the window"?
In fairness a lot of those weapons are being used to fight the Russians, albeit by the Ukrainian Army.
Id be more worried about a cornered Jackel .. Facing a push of this size where is Putins head at .. And a close Ally in a state of mourning. Id be looking very closely at the goings on around a certain power planet very carefully
Ukrainian penis penetrating Russian rear
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1567935220489273345?t=xvf5tQvOaYwga5kZyfepwA&s=19
Edit: Just seen a report that the Ukr forces are now less than 10KM from Kupyansk, if true then… crikey!
Posted 3 hours ago
Reports of fighting in the Western Edge of Kupiansk already, blimey they're moving fast, absolute mad lads.
This could be the start of the collapse, I just hope Ukr are able to keep the advancing units supplied so they don't overextend and get cut off but so far this is looking like stunning progress.
The Guardian seems to be confirming the Twitter reports of massive gains have been made around Kharkiv
Obviously, the Ukrainians will be watching closely to see if the Russians are able to regroup and halt the advance. Hopefully they can't and are forced into a larger retreat.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1567946834714263561
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1567968523913252864
Girkins latest comment couple of hours ago:
On the Kherson front, today the enemy advances in the area of the settlement. Posad-Pokrovskoye - had a tactical character of "leakage". The village is in our hands, measures are being taken to eliminate the enemy infantry groups that have broken through. South of Kharkov - so far a complete "alles kaput" of organized defense. Balakleya abandoned by our troops. Fights are going on near approaches to Kupyansk. The enemy, using mobile DRGs, makes deep raids behind the lines of our disoriented troops, causing panic with small forces and destroying rear checkpoints, intercepting roads and transport columns. Thanks to reliable communications - these groups are supported by pinpoint missile strikes, and our aviation is not able to recognize "friend or foe" in this mess - therefore, such raids by the enemy are "getting away with" so far. Our reserves are constantly moving into the area of breakthroughs.
Some interesting “on the ground” posts on this Instagram channel
https://instagram.com/guardians.of.the.north?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
and especially from a Swedish volunteer medic
https://instagram.com/okandsoldat?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
What I understood was that in the Kharkiv area where he now is there are professional soldiers whereas in Luhansk it was more middle aged reservists. Or maybe it was a recipe for meatballs. I can’t be sure…
(Some Google translate required)
ISW reckons Kupiansk well fall in 72 hrs
Russians trying to reinforce it
https://twitter.com/Noel_dotsol/status/1567999362294288384?s=19
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1568132510999056385?s=19
It's amazing how much Russian bloggers give away on social media!
Russians trying to reinforce it
With what? Did they pull some more T-62s out of storage and offer convicted criminals a release from prison if they'd go to Ukraine to fight?
Odds are this isn't far from the truth, considering the importance of Kupyansk, the front to the west of it probably already had some 'A-tier' units holding it and the Ukrainians have already punched clean through them.
Any other higher quality units are probably down in Kherson and too engaged to easily be pulled back, the southern offensive is definitely doing it's job of pinning Russian assets in place whilst the Ukrainians mount an absolute thunder run in the North.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they're happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2's blazing.
If you look at pictures from the Northern front of the units that are doing these advances you're struck by how 'Western' they look, HumVees, western style helmets, plate carriers, no AK47's in sight, you have to suspect that these are the units that have just come back from training in Poland, The UK, Sweden etc.
Your taxes in action ladies and gentlemen.
It’s amazing how much Russian bloggers give away on social media!
Yeah, they puggled the life out of me for months tbh, but they see to give fairly accurate information on the tactical side.
Girkin, saying, according to the 'laws of the game' expecting a push in the south too, doesn't seem to think it's a feint, just 2 equal blows.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they’re happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2’s blazing.
This is interesting, I do wonder how much intel they are getting from occupied territory. If the mobile networks are still working what's to stop Ukranians WhatsApping pictures to the UAF all day?
This is interesting, I do wonder how much intel they are getting from occupied territory. If the mobile networks are still working what’s to stop Ukranians WhatsApping pictures to the UAF all day?
Lots! I did see a post over the last couple of days thanking the forces and the people working with them from inside occupied territory. So I'd say there's a lot going on.
And it was only the other day that the governor of Berdyansk got blown up in his car. And that's about as far inside occupied territory as you're going to get. So there are definitely a lot of partisan activities going on.
Come to think of it I also saw a WarTranslated call from a Russian soldier in Kherson complaining that it wasn't safe for the Russian armed forces to go out on patrol alone in Kherson! My heart bleeds for the poor fellow.
With what? Did they pull some more T-62s out of storage and offer convicted criminals a release from prison if they’d go to Ukraine to fight?
I don't think they've got stuff even that capable
https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1568190728886444032?t=88MXHd6P2cqUAahx6Lgh9Q&s=19
Was wondering if they'll send reinforcements, apparently there have been 30-40k volunteer reserves ready to go in moscow. You do have to expect some kinda russian push back. Find out soon enough if they amount to anything if that's true.
Along with Russia complaining at the UNSC, that the country theyve invaded is being sent the means to defend itself.
At the request of the US and Albania, the UNSC will hold an open meeting on the forced deportation of Ukrainians.
“We are concerned that the Russian authorities have adopted a simplified procedure to grant Russian citizenship to children without parental care, and that these children would be eligible for adoption by Russian families,” she said.The filtration procedures of Ukrainian adults judged as close to the Ukraine government or military have involved torture and the forcible removal and transfer to Russian penal colonies and other detention centres, Kehris said.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they’re happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2’s blazing.
Just a guess here, but I think the Ukrainian breakthrough started out as a probe just to see where Russia was strong. Probably the Russians were already very demoralized and just hoofed it when they saw the Ukrainians coming, which led to the Ukrainians surging through the Russian lines and a stampede by the Russians to get out of the way. Let's face it, if you were a Russian soldier, you would know damn well that the war was not going to plan. Would you fight to the death for a lost cause like that?
Not unless the political officers were behind me and I could not arrange an accident for them.
My heart bleeds for the poor fellow.
Well to be fair it's probably not his first choice of how to spend his afternoons.
I read somewhere that America is now quietly supplying advanced GPS guided munitions for the big 155mm howitzers the Ukrainians are using. They’re use of drones for target tracking and aiming is already pretty devastating, this additional accuracy could make a big difference.
Ukraine has already degraded bridges in, I think, the Donetsk area to the point that Russia is having to rely on ferrying supplies across.
Which isn’t vulnerable at all…
On a slightly lighter note, I liked this little example of Ukrainian wry humour:
Now THAT ^ is just brilliant!
It really is looking like the whole Izyum salient is getting cut off and surrounded.
If this collapses and troops/equipment lost, plus the Kherson garrison, that is game over.
The battle for the crucial railway junction at Kupyansk is now very much underway and further south there's now talk that the Ukrainians have advanced so far that (as you can see from the map above) they are in with a chance of surrounding the Russians in Izyum in the next few days, this is dizzying stuff.
Some Russian military Telegram channels are already suggesting they abandon Izyum, a week ago this would have been crazy talk but now the panic is palpable.
This is shaping up to be one of those offensives they write textbooks about. Even if it's almost run its course and things bog down again it's still been spectacular, it it carries on then who knows what the end result will be.
This is shaping up to be one of those offensives they write textbooks about.
Yep.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568250148416798721
Am I right in thinking that the faster the offensive, the less infrastructure and fewer civilian buildings etc gets destroyed?
Omg this is so touching
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1568238418596855809?t=2V9gVi5MsIYumUvILbbMqw&s=19
Not unless the political officers were behind me and I could not arrange an accident for them
Just one ping, Vasili
You've got to worry that the Ukrainians are advancing so fast that they may be overstretched
But it looks like they know what They're doing
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568267855870758917?t=O3cV3814Lc0b1hLKgws0Qg&s=19
How many troops do Ru have in Kupyansk? Will there be a mass surrender or will the Russian reinforcements fight it out?
https://twitter.com/eideticeye/status/1568200881690099713?t=4o4DCEcWKFQHfGgMDAWvWg&s=19
If this collapses and troops/equipment lost, plus the Kherson garrison, that is game over.
Sadly, I don't think it is. Russia has history of not giving any thought to just throwing more bodies and haphazard equipment at a problem.
I do wonder if there will be a winter's front line on that river, and Ukraine will spend the cold months degrading supply lines and storage more with the long distance weapons they now have.
Meanwhile Russia will take it out via indescriminate firing on local population and prisoners.
Please can someone give Pootin a cuppa chai.
seosamh77
Full Member
Was wondering if they’ll send reinforcements, apparently there have been 30-40k volunteer reserves ready to go in moscow. You do have to expect some kinda russian push back. Find out soon enough if they amount to anything if that’s true.
Some trucks and light towed artillery, no tanks, no heavy artillery. Also, no way to resupply them because the Ukrainians now have the key rail junctions within artillery range.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1568219244059398145
With what? Did they pull some more T-62s out of storage and offer convicted criminals a release from prison if they’d go to Ukraine to fight?
That’ll be the North Koreans and some from Eritrea and Somalia I expect.
That does seem to be within the remit of Ukrainian humour
What a fearsome fighting force
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1568285561898827776?t=Ib1PmLgTlsY2SKagjBZdiw&s=19
Did Russia just move almost all its troops to Kherson to fight the well advertised Ukr offensive there?
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568303840062996480?t=iE8AoFgJ0Bh4TK0D8XDYlg&s=19
Incredible
I genuinely never thought I'd see it happen
I thought it would happen, but not yet and not quite so spectacularly. I was pretty optimistic and knew things were swinging in Ukraine's favour but just didn't think we were there yet.
I just pray that Ukraine can just keep it going and turn this from A collapse to THE collapse.
Nobody really knows what things are going to look like tomorrrow, let alone this time next month, it's crazy stuff.
Slava Ukraine!
I just pray that Ukraine can just keep it going and turn this from A collapse to THE collapse
Good point!
ISW map updated, goes further than most others. Looking like the idea might be to push south and circle Izyum.
Is this for real?!
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568374505357320193?t=j50nlvwle2rC1XerEroZMQ&s=19
STill a bit sceptical that Ru wont mount a converted defense of Izyum, Ive seen reports of 10,000 Ru there- with 3 months to dig in, they could make it v hard for UAF
Putin will not be happy
Hopefully just a matter of time before Izium is encircled, then it’s demise is inevitable.
Just seen this as a headline on Sky News.
Joe Biden planning to attend Queen's funeral - but Vladimir Putin not expected after sending note to King Charles.
You'd bloody hope he'd not be admitted! Or maybe assassinated between Heathrow and Westminster Abbey.
STill a bit sceptical that Ru wont mount a converted defense of Izyum, Ive seen reports of 10,000 Ru there- with 3 months to dig in, they could make it v hard for UAF
My guess is that a lot of it will just come down to the Russian troops' morale. They must all know that things aren't going well and that Ukraine will keep fighting until all Russian's are evicted from Ukrainian territory, so what's the point in getting killed? The best way to save Russian lives is for Russians to either flee or surrender. Fighting back will just prolong the inevitable.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1568390564743368705
Armchair pessimist, but I think that UKR has to be careful that local commanders are kept in check and don't freestyle too much in a bid to be the first unit to liberate xyz while ignoring basic principles
I wouldn't be surprised to see a slower pace over the weekend while UKR takes stock, rests and resupplies while keeping up artillery and air support pressure on Russian Forces
I think that UKR has to be careful that local commanders are kept in check
The Mick Ryan thread above covers that. The Ukrainian forces should have orders to stop at a specific point to avoid getting over-extended. So far, the Ukrainians seem to be extremely professional and disciplined. This offensive was planned and prepared for for months, the plan would've been to advance to some specific strategic location and then consolidate a defensive perimeter to withstand any Russian counter-offensive. I'm guessing that the Ukrainian commanders are surprised at the speed of advance, but they won't be foolish enough to think that they can win the war in one week.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slower pace over the weekend while UKR takes stock, rests and resupplies while keeping up artillery and air support pressure on Russian Forces
Hopefully
I certainly want to believe that the Ukrainians appreciate one of their main advantages is professionalism. Not that id know one way or the other with the quality of their info campaign.
The pro Russian sources im seeing over the last two days have been interesting, the Copium is getting some intense usage. Same for some of the MAGA crowd tbf.
...they won’t be foolish enough to think that they can win the war in one week
We lost a ship in the Falklands due to just this 🙁
This is amazing, I don't think it would have been allowed on Russian television a month ago. It's like they are preparing the public for news that they might need to retreat
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1568310989149605888
Hopefully this is the end of the beginning !
Gold standard attained yet?
Looking at the map there is still a long way to go.
Let's hope for a middle order batting collapse.
Multiple Russian and Ukranian sources are now reporting the same, remember a whole 9 hours ago when we were talking about them 'maybe' being able to surround Izyum in the next few days?
There are confirmed images of Ukrianian forces raising the flag in the centre of Kupiansk as well. It seems that the Russians may still hold the crucial Railway Junction in the East of the city... but for how long?
Is it just me or does the room suddenly get really dusty when you watch the videos of the first Ukr troops coming into liberated villages and all the little babushkas coming out to greet them.
And the BBC headline for the war today, “Ukraine takes several towns” - WTF!! 🤷♂️
Yeah, to be fair the BBC is in full on 'Royal succession' mode and not much else is getting a look in.
TBF. The BBC’s coverage of the war itself has been pretty poor. It’s always been very light on detail & is concentrated on the human misery angle (quite rightly in many ways)
And it may be quite possible that outside of the armchair Field Marshalls online, most people just want the suffering to end, ideally with a Ukrainian victory and they're not hugely bothered about hourly updates with all the gritty details.
Not like the lack of coverage has reduced public or government support for Ukraine in any major way.
People have a weird obsession with war, maybe too many movies as a kid?
Often the same sort that I'd meet in uniform often with the line of 'I would have joined but...'.
They're just fantasists who read to many books.
But realistically most people do not want to join, abhor war and would rather earn a living doing something else.
We need defence forces and like every other aspect of life, the Govt since 2010 has cut and stripped the military down to a less effective force. The 15 years we spent pretending to be Deputy Dawg to the US self proclaimed world Sheriff wasn't great for the people involved or the public perception. Now there's a real war nearby the horror and reality of it all is a wake up call
I remember meeting a young local man in the Elan Valley years ago who was about to go to "Kuwait". He was wistfully looking at the landscape. I hope he survived.
Every casualty is someone's son, daughter, Mum, Dad etc. War is awful.
The sooner it ends (hopefully with a Ukraine victory) the better
One thing I still can't wrap around is the fact that Russian conscripts get about a month of training then sent to war. At week 4/5 of basic I still knew absolutely **** all in the grand scheme of things.
Putin really is a ****. A long and painful death seems too good for him.
The issue with anything other than victory for Ukraine and a return to pre-2014 borders is that it sends the message that it's ok to achieve goals via aggression.
The historical precedent for what comes after letting that happen does not bode well.
Wow pretty stunned if izyum gone already. Amazing.
it's ok to achieve goals via aggression.
Err, I think that horse has well and truly bolted. A long, long time ago.
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/jSWy1Mbx/Screenshot-20220910-120158.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/jSWy1Mbx/Screenshot-20220910-120158.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
Screen shot as translation to English.
Err, I think that horse has well and truly bolted. A long, long time ago.
That one even pre-dates Herodotus much to our species shame
Svatobo?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1568561436032483330
I repeat: !?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!
And furthermore, !!!!!!
If true it's bonkers
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1568528536486412288?t=V_IJoy8SzZ0nkcFpxzfPuw&s=19
Putin must be seething!
Anyone got any reliable MSM reports of what is going on?
If they've left Svatovo - possibly without yet coming under attack, then what might that suggest - a retreat to the 2014-2021 borders in the East? Try to consolidate those and reinforce the South?