Ukraine

The sub text of your post is that people on here are somehow enjoying this.

I never said that either. I don’t think anyone’s enjoying it, but I see plenty of evidence that people are being sucked into the sort of propaganda which sustains and escalates war.

If you boil it down to the schoolyard you have people who take sides and hype up the differences and amplify the aggression, and you have people who stand in the middle desperately trying to tell the rest that it’s not worth it. I’m not apologising for being the latter.

BBC reports that China now involved in supplying weapons to Russia. Although arguably they were involved a month ago when Xi asked Putin if he wouldn’t mind delaying his little genocide for a few days because he was enjoying the skiing.

If you boil it down to the schoolyard

Now who’s oversimplifying?

Didn’t you recently say how people should take the forum too seriously.

Very true and I still stand by it. Trouble is I’ve been labelled as a Putin apologist for voicing an anti-war viewpoint, and have been reported and banned when I tried to call out (admittedly a bit too personal which I’m not doing any more) those who in my view were getting a little over excited.

I’m sticking to the issues from now on but I’m not going to be misrepresented or bullied into keeping quiet. As I said to the mods, if this thread can’t tolerate alternative anti-war (which is where I’m coming from) views it should be deleted and all discussion on Ukraine banned.

Now who’s oversimplifying?

At least it’s not making stuff up that other people didn’t say 😉

I think this sticker on the back window of the car gives an important insight into Russian nationalism.

Putinist ideology is dualist. The dark force of Nazism fights against force of light, Russia. Hence, anyone who objects Russia *now* is Nazi. Finns, Poles and ofc Ukrainians. Having Ukrainian identity is itself a proof of your Nazism. If were not Nazi, you'd just become Russian pic.twitter.com/pyRyfpaDju

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 13, 2022

for voicing an anti-war viewpoint

Perhaps everyone else here wants the war to stop, and never wanted it to start, and doesn’t want it to escalate. If you keep that in mind when you post, rather than talking about people in this thread (even if generally rather than naming them) as if they are pro-war, you’ll find a lot of agreement.

 I see plenty of evidence that people are being sucked into the sort of propaganda which sustains and escalates war.

Pretty sure Putin is not being whipped into a murderous fury because of what he’s reading on this thread.

Sorry if this war doesn’t fit with your Citizen Smith world view, but twisting facts won’t make it fit either.

dazh

I’m sticking to the issues from now on but I’m not going to be misrepresented or bullied into keeping quiet.

Ok, no hidden agenda in anything I’m saying here.

I totally agree, you’ve said nothing that warrants hitting the report button in our exchanges tonight. Not even close.

dazh

As I said to the mods, if this thread can’t tolerate alternative anti-war (which is where I’m coming from) views it should be deleted

There is only one point we disagree on in this thread and we’ve discussed that at large. Other than that we agree on pretty much everything from what I’ve seen in your posts. That’s what I want to reinforce here.

My thinking:

War is utterly futile and ultimately both sides are diminished by it. The after shocks can lead to conflicts that can go on for decades or even centuries. Utterly futile.

War is instigated by the powerful but the cheque is always picked up by the little people that are pawns in their “games”. The powerful rarely feel the impact or the tragedy.

All efforts should be made to resolve the conflict in ukraine. I wake every day hoping that I read of progress in the talks between Ukraine and Russia.

I don’t doubt for a second you anti war credentials and I completely agree with them.

Pretty sure Putin is not being whipped into a murderous fury because of what he’s reading on this thread.

Of course not, but war has a way of polarising opinion and encouraging the darker side of human nature. It’s very easy to get sucked in to the adversarial nature of it and it poisons everything else. This thread is a good example IMO.

^^^^ All that that Poop said.

War is utterly futile and ultimately both sides are diminished by it. The after shocks can lead to conflicts that can go on for decades or even centuries. Utterly futile.

War is instigated by the powerful but the cheque is always picked up by the little people that are pawns in their “games”. The powerful rarely feel the impact or the tragedy.

Totally agree. This is the singular point where I’m coming from.

BBC reports that China now involved in supplying weapons to Russia

Link? All I can find anywhere is that Russia asked for them.

Incidentally I just watched the Winter On Fire doc on Netflix. As Kelvin (I think) rightly said in an earlier post I’d normally be the first to defend revolutionary action, and I still do as long as it’s largely peaceful.

I need to watch again and do some more reading but my first reaction is that like many revolutions they get co-opted by powerful interests which dilute or replace what the people who were rising up actually wanted (eg Egypt and the Arab spring). The 2014 revolution doesn’t seem to be any different in that regard. The main difference is they were rising up against a military super power with a megalomaniac leader with wafer thin support from the west.

Probably not a popular opinion but the more I see and read about Ukraine the more I think the west has completely misled them and sold them out.

Is the problem that the “west” hasn’t supported them enough? Or shouldn’t have supported them at all? Probably too glib a question actually, sorry. Doing more or doing less would still have left Ukraine in an awful position.

bikesandboots
Full Member

BBC reports that China now involved in supplying weapons to Russia

Yeah, that’s a big potential development of true. The Americans seem to still be sharing intelligence openly as they have done through this.

Link? All I can find anywhere is that Russia asked for them.

China thus far has said nothing or “I have not heard of that” depending upon the source.

It puts China in a bind as they are publicly staying neutral whilst supporting Russia domestically via social media and statements.

They are walking a tightrope and its fair to say that Putin either intentionally or in error misrepresented the complexity of the invasion to them.

It’ll be interesting to see what they do.

It’s also interesting in regard to Russia if they did indeed ask. It again hints at a military simply not prepared for such a campaign and hence the draconian use of artillery and rockets etc.

War is instigated by the powerful but the cheque is always picked up by the little people that are pawns in their “games”. The powerful rarely feel the impact or the tragedy.

There’s no dispute, the question is why?

Why do the powerful feel the need to instigate wars?

Or are all wars started by powerful madmen without logical reason?

What happens if…?
China says no. Is that really Putin’s last chance? Can he continue the invasion without their help? Will he have to withdraw or will he escalate to non-conventional weapons, chemical maybe? Or are the Chinese weapons just nice to have but not essential and they can carry on without? How would China ‘siding’ with the West be seen by Russia and by NATO?
China says yes. We appear to have Russia and China lined up against NATO and the one person who might be able to talk Putin down taking his side. We also appear to have Putin beholden to Xi.
.
.
I suspect they won’t want to get involved. Let Russia and NATO argue it out amongst themselves, talk Putin down from his nuclear high horse (will he consult Xi prior to doing anything of that scale?) and then swoop in and buy all the Russian companies for peanuts as soon as the stock market reopens again.

Why do the powerful feel the need to instigate wars?

Or are all wars started by powerful madmen without logical reason?

This guy gives a good talk.
It’s one long monologue to camera but he is surprisingly entertaining. He’s an archaeologist but also studies behavioural evolution. This video is about war and human nature and some theories about why we might do it

My guess at what is happening here is that the US is trying to pre-empt this. This has been a constant pattern – they would release intelligence reports to the media about Russian invasion plans, false-flag attacks, etc. in order to disrupt those plans. The message it sends to Russia and China is that the US knows what is happening and isn’t going to sit back and pretend that it isn’t, and that China might be sanctioned if it doesn’t back off support. It gives China the opportunity to back out of it and claim that it was just US intelligence agencies making false accusations.

The development comes as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan plans to travel to Rome on Monday to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi.

“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” Sullivan told CNN.

A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said he was not aware of any such request for assistance. “I’ve never heard of that,” he said in an email to The Washington Post.

Russia is asking China for military equipment, U.S. officials say https://t.co/o9gnUycrC0

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) March 13, 2022

This is why Ukrainians believe that fighting is preferable to surrender.

I'm only just starting to understand the scale and extent of Russian atrocities in Kyiv region over the past 2 weeks. It's unbelievable. It's not just Irpin, Bucha, Hostomel, Borodyanka etc. Dozens of smaller villages were completely terrorized, cut off, people were executed.

— Isobel Koshiw (@IKoshiw) March 13, 2022

I think this is a push back against resistance. Blow 1 tank up, fine but the other 6 tanks take ypu out.
Then the tankers mates take revenge on the next village as they saw their friends burn.
Unless you force that battle group into retreat then this scenario might happen.
Catch 22. I just hope that the invaders keep on getting hit hard enough to demoralise them, wear out their equipment and run out of fuel and ammo.
Not happening yet though as the advance is slow and steady and, i have a feeling, planned. I suspect areas controlled are being made safe so the Russian army does not get hit from the rear.

I think this is a push back against resistance.

It was standard USSR doctrine, and now it’s standard Russian Fed doctrine. Deliberate targeting of civilians in battle areas creates casualties, denies use of houses and creates panic and physiological terror, ultimately refugees,  and gives your enemy other things to have to deal with other than fighting and is intended to cause quicker surrender.  The propaganda that denies it’s use alongside the absolute routine use of it is also part of the same tactic.

Remember Putin arresting his top FSB chiefs a week or so?

It turns out that the FSB were given billions to ferment regime change in Ukraine before the war, they were meant to recruit likely Ukrainian pro-Russian organisations and anti Zelensky groups ready to make sure Ukrainian would “welcome” the Russian troops, turns out the FSB bosses did none of that work, and just trousered the money instead.

Deliberate targeting of civilians in battle areas creates casualties, denies use of houses and creates panic and physiological terror, ultimately refugees, and gives your enemy other things to have to deal with other than fighting and is intended to cause quicker surrender.

Sounds very much like US tactics in North Vietnam and Cambodia. What other reason could there be for using B52s to deliberately carpet bomb concentrated civilian areas with no military significance?

It’s every armies tactic, injure and maim. A dead soldier is dead an injured on takes others to carry him, treat him, move him, feed him etc all of that is personnel, time and kit being diverted.
Do it to civilians and you also scare them into wanting nothing to do with the defending force because they don’t want to bring more down on themselves.
(It is abhorrent but a harsh reality.

The Russian brutality is quite likely intended to lure NATO into intervening. The Russian public don’t see Ukraine as an enemy, hence Russian media are apparently barely even reporting that there’s a war on. NATO is seen as an existential threat. If Putin can lure NATO into combat, then it’s a popular war and opposition will melt away.

Been saying it. It's Putin's only way out. Doesn't mean we have to take the bait. https://t.co/iqaKwUJ1lo

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 14, 2022

Putin needs that because his war has been an utter disaster and his military can’t sustain an extended war.

Everyone will focus on what China will decide to do, but an important aside: what great power needs military assistance after less than a month of kinetic activity?! https://t.co/RTrdWJLPRj

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) March 13, 2022

If a pro-Kremlin pollster is saying that only 70% of Russian support the war after a couple of weeks of fighting and Russian media only showing good news about it, it’s hard to see how there will be support for a war that lasts months or years and results in tens of thousands of Russian deaths. Putin needs NATO to get involved to shore up public support.

1) VTsIOM has a bad reputation (much worse than, say, Levada). I would not put it past Fedorov to just make up numbers to suit the Kremlin's narrative, and his own obvious pro-war bias (displayed in this interview) raises further doubt about his – and VTsIOM's – reliability.

— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) March 14, 2022

Monumental FP decision for China; do they throw Russia under the bus to maintain good relations with the West or do they throw in their lot with Russia and try to set up their own anti-Western bloc?

Otoh, if the Chinese rebuff the request or delay/prevaricate in fulfilling it, would support the idea that they want this thing over. Russia has certainly put them on the spot with this request.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 14, 2022

The same tactics were used in Chechenya

The fact that there are Chechen troops fighting for Putin who have a horrendous record with civilian deaths there bodes ill.

But Russian casualties will have an effect at home, 6000 deaths, maybe 3 times that injured and 1000s captured, at some point public will learn of it and that will say opinion.

Monumental FP decision for China;

Right now they are probably in a position to quietly negotiate a ‘blind eye’ to their South China Seas activities as well as enjoy the favour of the West as a ‘peacemaker’, or at least a ‘war-ender’ in practical terms. And a greatly-diminished Russia could be taken advantage of as well.

Or do they back Putin, who could be gone in months?

Sounds very much like US tactics in North Vietnam and Cambodia.

Yes, exactly so. I imagine it’ll be as successful in the long term as well.

Re the targeting civilians, it’s the quickest and most (brutally & cruelly) efficient way to achieve your intended outcome. Deliberately targeting the population will break the will to fight on all levels a lot quicker than fighting against a motivated & trained force of regular or irregular soldiers.

In the beginning numbers killed & injured strengthen resolve, then it reaches a tipping point and people just want it to stop. There’s always the possibility of third parties intervening, but in this case we’ve done to death why that won’t happen.

It also doesn’t take a madman to do it, the justification is horrifically easy when you honestly believe you’re in the right or that your foe is ‘evil’, or that it’s for the greater good of your nation.

It also helps when you have little regard for the individual and only care about the whole or state; it reduces war to a very simplistic win/lose scenario. The belief at that high level is there may be those perceived as winners/losers, but on the human, individual level there are only losers. There are only ever losers when it comes to armed conflict in the modern world.

Saw this and thought of STW!

After an amazing two years as an infectious disease expert I am moving on! I am now an expert in no-fly zones and Eastern European affairs. Excited to make the most of this new opportunity

A bit unfair really as this thread mostly has some interesting views and some useful information from a variety of contributors.

Thankfully, the talks seem to be progressing, from the BBC:

“Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” Podolyak said in a video online. “I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days.

There’s always trouble brewing when you try to ‘ferment regime change’.

After an amazing two years as an infectious disease expert I am moving on! I am now an expert in no-fly zones and Eastern European affairs. Excited to make the most of this new opportunity

Oh god, it’s funny ’cause it’s true! two down on the four horseman, what’s left Conquest and Famine?

I hope China doesn’t supply Russia with weapons. I’m amazed Russia doesn’t have enough!

also waiting for the rank hypocrisy of people saying China is in the wrong for selling weapons to Russia when we sell them to Saudi etc.

Monumental FP decision for China; do they throw Russia under the bus to maintain good relations with the West or do they throw in their lot with Russia and try to set up their own anti-Western bloc?

I thought this was a really interesting analysis of the strategic options for China:

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice 

I’m trying to assess it’s objectivity – it’s published in ‘The U.S.-China Perception Monitor’ which obviously has a focus on improved China/US relationships.  But the article was not not commissioned by them and the author’s credentials sound legit:

‘Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor’.

what’s left Conquest and Famine?

Sadly there is a fairly good chance of famine making an appearance due to the invasion of Ukraine. Its a major source of wheat and currently the farmers are all busy nicking tanks to be planting seeds.

Deliberately targeting the population will break the will to fight on all levels a lot quicker than fighting against a motivated & trained force of regular or irregular soldiers.

Can you provide some examples of when that has happened? Germany and Japan were bombed to rubble in WW2 yet kept fighting. Japan only surrendered after the Emperor declared that it was time to give up. Even after that, fanatics broke into the Imperial Palace and tried to destroy the recordings of the Emperor’s message to the nation before they could be broadcast. Stalingrad was reduced to rubble but didn’t surrender. Malta too.

All major nations sell/supply weapons – its big business.

As an ex military man, I am positively Anti War. For me an ethical strong military is there to dissuade attack, not as a big stick.