Ukraine

Call me a coward but I wouldn’t fight,

You don’t necessarily have to fight, just stay and do your job that needs doing – food, power, water, driving around, even shopkeepers are needed.

Have been thinking from the start that China’s position in relation to the situation could be key to how it plays out. Here’s a link to an academic paper which is well worth reading from the ‘U.S.- China Perception Monitor, titled “Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice.”

Uscnpm.org – China’s Choice

It has been doing the rounds on Twitter but not seen it mentioned here, it is interesting to see a perception form that angle…the most encouraging thing is that there is a recognition that China needs to get off the fence and side with those looking to de-escalate, and in so doing could improve both world perception of China and their standing.

I’m sure I read earlier that Biden is meeting in person for talks tomorrow with China, can’t find the source now – if they go with the recommendations in the article then that would be a positive outcome.

I like to think I would fight, but that’s very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa.

If I was single and had no dependents, I’d like to think I’d have the courage of my convictions on standing up to bullies. The reality is I’d have to see the damage that choice would make to my aging parents, my disabled wife, my now “old enough to have to fight” son and my teenage daughter. I suspect my convictions may crumble.

any country suffering an invasion should not resist and simply comply?

And that’s the nub of the question, isn’t it? And that’s why mutual defence pacts exist as the geo-political level so that individual countries can’t just be picked off one by one.

Call me a coward but I wouldn’t fight, I’d stay with my family and get out if I could or hole up somewhere until it was over. I certainly wouldn’t be putting my life on the line to protect politicians and businessmen who stood to lose out from a Russian takeover

I certainly wouldn’t call you a coward, it’s a pragmatic choice.

But it’s not just the politicians and businessmen who lose out. Fair enough not fighting for them. But what about when your country has been asset stripped and there’s nothing left to make a viable life for your family, but there’s armed guards at the border stopping you escaping? What about when a squad of drunken troops kick the doors in of the house across the road, steal everything they’ve got, beat up or kill the males, rape the women? Do you take a stand then? What about when they kick in your own door?

Societies, at all levels, survive because at some point some brave/idealistic/foolish people are prepared to put themselves on the line to protect their family, their neighbours, their culture, the places where they live.

With all these concerns, surely ‘Stop the War’ is tha answer, rather than have I got the balls to be blown up in a competition between two ruling classes? All this bravado nonsense would be better expressed on the Christmas Airfix thread.

Appeasement does not mollify an expansionist dictator

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

BillMC
Full Member
With all these concerns, surely ‘Stop the War’ is tha answer, rather than have I got the balls to be blown up in a competition between two ruling classes? All this bravado nonsense would be better expressed on the Christmas Airfix thread.

I don’t think Putin is inclined to listen to protests laudable as they are.

Those blank sign protests.  Just amazing

As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.

Tucker Carlson has the permanent look of a man that surreptitiously slipped out a fart only to realise he’s followed through in public.

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

It’s deja vu all over again Rodney

Interesting article from endoverend – I can see that how China reacts will have huge implications for it’s international standing going forwards, and backing Putin, or at least not trying to talk Putin down, could see it facing similar united international sanctions which would cripple China the way they are crippling Russia. The article certainly makes a good point that the right choice could secure and cement China’s international position in the short-medium term.

Those blank sign protests. Just amazing

Very much in the vein of the very old Russian joke:

A man was reported to have said: “Nikolay is a moron!” and was arrested by a policeman. “No, sir, I meant not our respected Emperor, but another Nikolay!” – “Don’t try to trick me: if you say “moron”, you are obviously referring to our tsar!”

You have to admire the bravery of people protesting in Russia, even if they don’t now end up in the gulag.

there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism

There really isn’t. If Putin doesn’t want borders with NATO then pushing Finland to join by aggressively invading another neighbour (that itself has borders with NATO) is a funny way of going about it.

EU expansion is potentially another question insomuch as a successful democratic Ukraine on the border would make the people of an autocratic corrupt Russia start to ask questions.

Tucker Carlson, Trump, Tom Cotton, looks like these right wingers all backed the wrong despot.

i_scoff_cake

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

If the Olympics ever incorporate mental gymnastics I suspect you’ll get a call.

Back on topic, those blank sign protesters in Russia. Incredible, brave and very clever at saying everything with nothing. Remarkable courage.

Ukrainian Railways (Укрзалізниця – Ukrzaliznytsia) posted this picture on their FB page showing the current state of their network and functioning stations:

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, and until this had no realistic prospect of membership any time soon. And, as has been said over and over again, it’s a defensive pact that countries apply to join of their own free will. If NATO expansionism exists at all, it’s entirety driven by Putin because neighbouring countries are terrified of his colonial aggression. As witnessed by countries like Sweden and Finland who until recently had no membership ambitions, looking like changing their minds.

The article certainly makes a good point that the right choice could secure and cement China’s international position in the short-medium term.

I can’t be bothered looking now but I said as much about 50 pages ago 🙂

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

Those bloody NATO countries and their bloody invasions, eh? The people who’ve died as they aggressively annexed all those former soviet states

Oh… hang on a minute…

^ if you want to know why we have to revisit that particular turd in the punchbowl…..

NATO is (the warmongering, expansionists) run by America (world leaders in all things capitalism), for the benefit of Isreal, or more accurately Mossad, who “we all know are actively engaged in both international peadophile rings and the MSM who only exist to ensure the true identity of our lizard overlords is not revealed.

apols, i seem to have run out of inverted commas and parentheses

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

Hail Tommy, comrade cake…….or some other indoctrinated bullshit

Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

No, really, there isn’t.

Nope, none whatsoever,”Biden’s CIA director, William J. Burns, has been warning about the provocative effect of NATO expansion on Russia since 1995. That’s when Burns, then a political officer in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, reported to Washington that “hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.”

Which is why Putin has been writing essays on why Russia & Ukraine are really one nation. And saying in public that Ukraine isn’t really a nation. But really we are going round in circles here. People will believe what they want to believe, select the evidence that supports their existing viewpoint & are prepared to ignore the bleedin’ obvious if it doesn’t support their particular world view

Burns, then a political officer in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, reported to Washington that “hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.”

The only reason Russia is hostile to NATO “expansionism” is that it frustrates their colonial aspirations. Eastern European countries have a stark choice.  Voluntary membership of NATO or involuntary membership of USSR/Warsaw pact Mk2.

it’s a defensive pact that countries apply to join of their own free will

Nato doesn’t have to let them join. Furthermore, NATO has been used at least twice to bomb countries that didn’t first attack NATO, so it’s not completely defensive.

The only reason Russia is hostile to NATO “expansionism” is that it frustrates their colonial aspirations.

The Americans have their Monroe doctrine. Do you think we’d be happy with an independent Scotland signing a ‘defence pact’ with China and letting China build military bases in Scotland, may even put nukes there?

i_scoff_cake

Nato doesn’t have to let them join.

Russia doesn’t have to invade Ukraine but it has.

Interestingly Ukraine isn’t in nato….And around and around it goes…

The Americans have their Monroe doctrine. Do you think we’d be happy with an independent Scotland designing ‘defence pact’ with China and letting China build military bases in Scotland, may even put nukes there?

Now if you delete China and insert any other democratic country/countries (a more realistic analogy I think you’ll agree), then personally I wouldn’t feel threatened by it nor have any objection.

Do you think we’d be happy with an independent Scotland designing ‘defence pact’ with China

An interesting assumption about who ‘we’ are given that a lot of people on here are Scottish or live in Scotland?
But what you are saying is that if Scotland became independent, England would have every right to invade if the Scots came up with policies that the English weren’t keen on?

Interestingly Ukraine isn’t in nato….And around and around it goes

Nato has made a kind of soft promise to let them join…at some point. It’s this possibility that is the Russians’ problem.

i_scoff_cake

Nato has made a kind of soft promise to let them join…at some point. It’s this possibility that is the Russians’ problem.

So Russia invade a county and decimate it’s cities over a “soft promise”? Ok.

How about Georgia and Chechnya?

Like I said though, this just goes round and round.

Do you think we’d be happy with an independent Scotland designing ‘defence pact’ with China

A good analogy. Of course it will be ridiculed by those who see geo-politics as a good vs evil battle, where the lives of normal people are secondary to the political and financial interests of the rich and powerful.

I guess the millions in Ukraine who have seen their lives destroyed will feel some comfort in the fact that Putin and his cronies are now persona non grata in the west when previously they were everyone’s best mates. 🙄

Nato has made a kind of soft promise to let them join

This is nonsense

Nato has made a kind of soft promise to let them join…at some point. It’s this possibility that is the Russians’ problem.

But why? Does anyone in Russia (or the world) seriously believe NATO would launch an invasion on their territory from Ukraine if they were in NATO?  Or is it simply because it would have thwarted their desire to seize Ukraine by force.  If it is the latter, then it’s not a reasonable objection IMO.

Nato has made a kind of soft promise to let them join

But since Russia couldn’t make a reasonable counter offer they need to invade.

Lots of countries bordering Russia have already joined NATO and not caused Russia any problem.

The whole “NATO expansion threat” theory simply doesn’t stand up to any logical scrutiny.

It’s more that there are those in Russia who fear & despise liberal democracy. The more countries that embrace it & the closer they are, the more they are scared it will infect Mother Russia.

dazh

I guess the millions in Ukraine who have seen their lives destroyed will feel some comfort in the fact that Putin and his cronies are now persona non grata in the west when previously they were everyone’s best mates.

@dazh
Remind us again how it’s Ukraine’s governments fault that they are dying and not Putin’s?

The whole “NATO expansion threat” theory simply doesn’t stand up to any logical scrutiny.

Agreed, it simply constrains Russian ambitions, borne out of a festering and misplaced sense of grievance to reclaim their old vassal states by force.  That is the sum total of their objections to it.

Remind us again how it’s Ukraine’s governments fault that they are dying and not Putin’s?

That’s not what I said and the implication is offensive. You can either retract it or I can report it and let the mods decide.

On a point of order though there’s a huge difference between the Ukrainian govt and the people who are being slaughtered in their name.

Of course it will be ridiculed by those who see geo-politics as a good vs evil battle,

The baddies are the ones who invaded a country at the behest of a fascist dictator, and are killing civilians. The goodies are the ones trying to defend themselves. Hope this helps.

On NATO expansion, right now if you lived in a Baltic republic would you be agitating to leave NATO as not doing so is somehow worrying Putin?

Putin asking for help

Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/F1IPh1ldhu

— Financial Times (@FT) March 13, 2022

China are tacitly backing Russia so far, but they must be aware that he has ballsed this up massively

Russia are ready to default
Unprecedented sanctions
Hes united the the West, with countries like Germany and France talking about stepping up military spending
Biden looking more like a leader than ever
Fast track membership for both EU & NATO now being requested or considered by Russia’s neighbours
Putins plan for a 3 day blitzkrieg to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership has instead seen his army in tatters, suffering more casualties in 2 weeks than Amrrica & the UK suffered in 20 years in Afghanistan…