Ukraine

The UK government are an embarrassment

Micheál Martin said Ireland has so far accepted 5,500 people fleeing the Russian invasion.

He said Ireland’s priority is the humanitarian response to what he termed “the worst displacement of people since World War II”.

“Our primary impulse is to assist those fleeing war,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/dublin-welcomes-dazed-ukrainian-arrivals-with-food-buggies-and-toys

Still struggling to recall anyone seriously calling for a pre-emptive NATO strike or looking forward to a limited nuclear war.

Putin started a war he’s going to win a war. NATO can’t step in and Ukraine can’t hold out. There are harsh realities in war and Russia has an army that it is willing to sacrifice until they’ve ground out the win.

The harsh reality is that Russia does not seem to have an army capable of conquering Ukraine. They have the ability to cause immense suffering and damage, but they cannot give Putin the win that he wanted.

Indeed there has been only one thrust that greatly exceeds the 140km/90mile limit, and that is the long thrust from Sumy to Kyiv. That might have taken two resupplies or a significant extra truck allocation–which is not terribly reassuring in 16 days of campaigning. pic.twitter.com/j88vv8kUM6

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 12, 2022

but they cannot give Putin the win that he wanted.

And neither will Zelensky get the win he wants. His resistance on the surface looks very admirable but where does it end? Is the slaughter of thousands, the destruction of cities and the displacement of millions really worth defending a border or a government? Call me a cynic but I struggle to see how Ukrainian resistance benefits people like my mate’s family who just want to get on with their lives.

Is the slaughter of thousands, the destruction of cities and the displacement of millions really worth defending a border or a government?

The Ukrainian government believes it is. Ukraine is a democracy. If the Ukrainian people prefer to live under Russian domination, they will decide that at the next election.

The Ukrainian government believes it is.

Of course they do, they have a lot to lose. Do they really represent the interests of the people though? If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they’d vote for? The choice between being part of NATO and the EU or under Russian influence was always a false choice. Ukrainians were sold a future that was never possible, and now they are suffering the consequences of decisions and actions which were made over their heads.

If the Ukrainian people prefer to live under Russian domination, they will decide that at the next election.

Well, only if the people of Ukraine are allowed free and fair elections, and foreign interference is stopped.

Tbf they would just move to Russia..
But after the Holodomor I bet most would rather stay.

If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they’d vote for?

These Ukrainians would not vote to be a Russian puppet state. Incredibly brave people, it’s heartbreaking to see the barbarity that Russia is unleashing on Ukraine.

Despite threat of arrest, kidnapping and worse, Ukrainians in their thousands still come out to protest against occupying Russian forces. This latest video from Berdyansk on the Azov coast. pic.twitter.com/AFUf2bz0Wa

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) March 13, 2022

That’s amazing. I think we need a reminder of the brave Russians protesting about this war. The “blank sign” protests (and arrests) I find particularly chilling…

Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022. pic.twitter.com/YprwDqex8V

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 12, 2022

Суд в Ростове-на-Дону арестовал активистку Анастасию Николаеву на восемь суток. В суде ее интересы защищал адвокат Сергей Ковалевич, сотрудничающий с ОВД-Инфо.

Николаеву признали виновной по статье о неповиновении полицейскому из-за одиночного пикета с пустым листом. pic.twitter.com/PpAYZPH04Q

— ОВД-Инфо (@OvdInfo) February 25, 2022

Russian shelling of military base close to Polish border is, I think, putin saying I’m on your doorstep now NATO – what are you going to do about it?
As the base was/is a transit point for supplies into Ukraine it’s making good on the warning that foreign aid – military and civilian – is fair game.
This ratchets up the pressure on NATO.
Will death of US journalist result in US acting unilaterally?
It’s all very well johnson, Biden and others saying that Russia will pay a price – what price?
To putin it’s just more empty threats.
As for sanctioning oligarchs – looks like decisive(?) action and plays well in the media but will have little impact; putin owns them and they know it.
At present it seems the West has been outmanoeuvred, again, by putin.
While the West and Nato dither, the death count increases, the mass exodus of Ukrainian citizens continues and villages/towns/cities are being razed to the ground.

Call me a cynic but I struggle to see how Ukrainian resistance benefits people like my mate’s family who just want to get on with their lives.

What does your Ukranian friend and their family want? To live and bring up their kids under an oppressive Putin backed regime, or keep fighting for their collective freedom in a brave bit possibly futile “better to die free men (and women)” stand?

It really doesn’t matter what any of us here want. We can discuss the alternatives and state what we would do if, God forbid, it ever comes to it here, but very self indulgent to be arguing with each other thousands of miles from the crisis.

Yes Putin is an absolute **** Nugget !! Yes he’s pushing very hard/close to triggering Nato. But he won’t he’s reduced to desperate posturing to get what may save face.

Akin to child throwing a tantrum

What does your Ukranian friend and their family want?

Their view is that they wanted (past tense now as it’s irrelevant) to get on with their lives and live in peace whoever governs them, and if that meant living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously, then that would be better than what they’re experiencing now. They definitely don’t want to sacrifice their lives to defend the Ukrainian government.

The areas hardest hit are those where support for the current Ukrainian government (at the polls) was weakest. Russia is not attacking the current Ukrainian government, or their supporters, they are taking the country by force. Those defending their cities are not defending the government. If they can keep Ukraine independent, they can vote for a different government more to their liking. If they lose completely, they will never have that chance again.

If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they’d vote for? The choice between being part of NATO and the EU or under Russian influence was always a false choice.

They seem to be pretty determined to resist, civilians as well as military.  From those protesting in occupied cities and standing if front of tanks, to those volunteering in their tens of thousands for the local defence organisations.  Are you saying that they should have just have shrugged and said ‘OK then’ to the invasion?  If so, should other countries Putin takes a fancy to adopt the same stance? Are there some that should and some that shouldn’t?  If so which are which? Do you believe it is ever OK for a country to defend itself against aggression?  I’m honestly not having a pop but genuinely curious if you think a sovereign country defending itself is always morally wrong or if there is something unique about Ukraine which makes it so?

I see the Lexiteers still not woken up to the fact they’ve been played by Putin too…just like Corbyn’s reluctance to condemn the Salisbury poisonings.

After the savagery inflicticted by an invading foreign power, some hope that any sort of election held by an occupying Russia in Ukraine would be free and fair? Conveniently forgetting that the Ukrainian’s already rejected a pro-Russian government in favour of a pro-EU one.

A bit like their “making Brexit work” policy – they can get in the sea.

I do wonder if there isnt a deliberate and structred fall back of Ukrainian defence forces.
Let the Russians extend their supply lines for hundreds of km. All along major roads. Then hit back with whatever they can muster.
Yes, yes, amti aircraft guns, missiles etc. How many operational ones do they have left, and how many do you need to protect a supply column the length of say Cornwall.?
Talking isn’t going to work
An ex Putin advisor on R4 last week stated he doesn’t bluff, and he doesn’t back down as its a sign of weakness.

I would not be surprised if the usa secured some polish, Romanian, or Bulgarian hardware and retro’d onto a stealth aircraft at all.

They just need to continually knocknout tanks, rocket launches and apc’s faster tjan the ruskis can resupply the front, attrition rate is critical in modern warfare.

A tiny twinkle of of hope?

“Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in a video posted online.

“I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” he said.
RIA news agency quoted a Russian delegate, Leonid Slutsky, as saying the talks had made substantial progress”.

Russia and Ukraine give brightest assessment yet of progress in talks on war https://t.co/mfw4FgtA07 pic.twitter.com/lfjNgXT4q3

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 13, 2022

bloke – I very much doubt it.

Let’s hope so.

Totally reasonable of dazh’s mate. People have beliefs and values, things they want, but are those really worth the slaughter, destruction, and displacement.

I’ve thought from the start it’s up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight, but to me some kind of Russian-backed government looked inevitable eventually. By choosing to fight they are paying the aforementioned prices and should they lose, will end up with something worse than what they’d have got had they surrendered. Maybe they’d have chosen differently without our support/encouragement/supply from the west.

I’m sad to be writing that, trying to take a realistic view that doing the right thing isn’t always the optimal choice.

I’ve thought from the start it’s up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight,

I agree

but to me some kind of Russian-backed government looked inevitable eventually.

I’m not so sure. Even if Russia ‘wins’ militarily, which Russian backed leader is going to put his head above the parapet when it is crystal clear the population absolutely do not want that. I don’t think they will last 5 minutes. I also don’t think Russia has the manpower, resources or resolve to occupy such a vast country and subjugate 40 million people who very clearly (with the exception perhaps of the eastern enclaves) don’t want them there.

I would also add that the view of Dazh’s mate is absolutely valid and understandable, but lots of his countrymen have a different view.

By choosing to fight they are paying the aforementioned prices and should they lose, will end up with something worse than what they’d have got had they surrendered.

Appeasement does not mollify an expansionist dictator, it emboldens them. We’ve seen Lukashenko’s map: surrendering to Putin simply signs Moldova’s death warrant. And who would be next on the list after them?

In addition, an anti-Russian insurgency would be guaranteed; surrender would not end the bloodshed. Just look at Northern Ireland (and others) to see how long these things can simmer.

And neither will Zelensky get the win he wants. His resistance on the surface looks very admirable but where does it end?

The continuity of Ukraine as an independent country presumably.

The choice has already been made now. Maybe before the drum started beating, or even before the fighting started, the population could have been swayed the other way if the government decided it was the best of a bad choice. Those other countrymen might have had views, but not so strongly held as they (very justifiably) are now. It’s different now because it’s been started, the population has been angered, and I at least have seen Russia weaker than I thought it would be.

On appeasement and who’s next, those are strategic things, the average citizen probably doesn’t care enough about these to get themselves and their family killed, their city flattened, and become a refugee.

Yes an insurgency would be guaranteed if they surrender now, as we’re looking at an angered population and a heavy Russia. Perhaps it would be preferable to actual war. If they’d surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.

I would also add that the view of Dazh’s mate is absolutely valid and understandable, but lots of his countrymen have a different view.

Absolutely. Just look at the variety of life experiences and, consequently, opinions here. People are different so no one can honestly “speak for the people”…

No chance – these people were occupied by Russia before, as well as the Germans. They know exactly what Russian occupation would/ or will look like, and they also knew exactly what Putin would do if they did not surrender. As lots of people have said the model was there for everyone to see in Chechnya and Syria.

Internal Russian document encouraging the use of Fox News’ Tucker Carlso’s pro-Putin quotes against the West and NATO…

Leaked Kremlin Memo to Russian Media: It Is “Essential” to Feature Tucker Carlson

As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.

If they’d surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.

I do understand what you are saying and that at a personal level, maybe strategic or geopolitical considerations don’t matter for some.  And who can honestly say for certain how they would feel in that position?  I like to think I would fight, but that’s very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa.  I do feel though, that Putin’s megalomania and imperial ambition mean that if that was the prevailing view and response to him, the whole of Europe and maybe beyond is doomed.

tim – I’m talking about just having a Russian-backed government – like they had before, not actually being occupied.

Arising from dazh:

Their view is that they wanted (past tense now as it’s irrelevant) to get on with their lives and live in peace whoever governs them, and if that meant living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously, then that would be better than what they’re experiencing now.

If it were possible before this latest fighting started, to have a referendum on Zelensky/EU & war with Russia, vs. having a pro-Russian government and peace, I’m not sure which way it’d go.

bloke – yes, impossible to say from behind this desk on this long-peaceful island. All those things matter to me, but they might not matter enough on balance. Faced with an upcoming event or outcome, people like to think they can do something (in this case, fight) to change it, or choose something else (that might not be realistic), but it’s very possible that the thing will happen anyway and by doing something you end up with worse.

As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.

Plenty of Republicans take a very different view.

Anyway, our equivalent…

I like to think I would fight, but that’s very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa.

I wouldn’t want to fight. I’d hope for a surrender. And then I’d keep quiet and try to get my family out asap. Life wouldn’t just “continue as normal” under a brutal military occupation, it would be hell. I wouldn’t judge those around me that resisted in an armed fashion, and I would be in awe of those standing up to invading military hardware armed with nothing but words. I definitely wouldn’t blame either of those groups for the bombardments and deaths, or imagine my life could continue in the country if only everyone around me just made way for the occupation and kept quiet and acquiesced in the way I would. That’s a naive fantasy.

If it were possible before this latest fighting started, to have a referendum on Zelensky/EU & war with Russia, vs. having a pro-Russian government and peace, I’m not sure which way it’d go.

Me neither, and of course it’s hypothetical.  But what a horribly perverse referendum question that would be!  Be bombed to oblivion if you exercise your right to choose who governs you, or become an unwilling vassal of a corrupt imperial dictatorship.

If they’d surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.

Perhaps. But even if they had surrendered and ‘regime changed’ before a single bullet was fired, the likelihood is that their peaceful lives would have been steadily diminished. Look at Belarus to see what 25 years of puppet state existence gives you: no free press, no freedom of speech, no elections, dissent against the government brings prison or torture, sanctions hobble your economy, and your children might be conscripted for Putin’s next adventure. And look at Chechnya to see what happens if you really step out of line.

Surrender might have brought temporary relief – but it would have been the thin end of a fairly uncomfortable wedge. Of course that’s not to say that some people would have taken it anyway.

If there were so many volunteers why did Zelensky ban 18-60 yo from leaving the country? I’d sooner live under a kleptocratic dictatorship than be pushing up the daisies, had a fair bit of practice.

kelvin – I like to think that I’d fight if the other option was military occupation, but most likely not if the other option was “living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously”. For example (and a very different one, I know), Brexiters probably wouldn’t fight if the EU said rejoin or we invade.

dazh

And neither will Zelensky get the win he wants. His resistance on the surface looks very admirable but where does it end? Is the slaughter of thousands, the destruction of cities and the displacement of millions really worth defending a border or a government? Call me a cynic but I struggle to see how Ukrainian resistance benefits people like my mate’s family who just want to get on with their lives.

In short you stance is that any country suffering an invasion should not resist and simply comply? Are there ever times when you believe that is not the best policy?

If there were so many volunteers why did Zelensky ban 18-60 yo from leaving the country?

Exactly. How do those going on about ‘living as free Ukrainians’ square that with blanket conscription? Call me a coward but I wouldn’t fight, I’d stay with my family and get out if I could or hole up somewhere until it was over. I certainly wouldn’t be putting my life on the line to protect politicians and businessmen who stood to lose out from a Russian takeover. Ultimately it’s very easy for people in the west from the comfort of their sofas to bang on about freedom and fighting against fascism when they’ve never had to worry about it. This is real life not some hollywood movie.

Think how different history might have been if all invaded territories had simply given up without a fight. No Rourke’s Drift. No Alamo. No Custer’s last stand. Those pesky Zulus, Mexicans and Native Americans could have saved themselves a whole lot of aggro if they had simply held up their hands when the invaders came and carried on living peacefully under a new administration I guess. Maybe the invaders would have treated them better in the long run too, had they not put up such resistance. Worked for the Australian Aborigines. Oh, sorry. No it didn’t.