Ukraine

 Then on Friday a woman from a charity that sorted it all out gave a little insight into how it’s organised, it’s not entirely a matter of registering your interest then a big family rocks up the following day.

One step ahead of me then🤣 I’ll have a listen and hear what she has to say

Maybe if Putin saw that we were individually and collectively prepared to stand by our principles and not just make token gestures, he might take European opinion seriously.

Can’t disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output – their quite happy with short supply

Have to admit, i stopped posting and reading this thread the more this invasion continues, it just defies belief, and it’s honestly sad to know that there’s nothing that could be done without turning this in to WW3, Poland’s offer shows that, the thought of a NATO country providing this level of defence would just turn it up a notch, same with Biden sat there saying the US just can’t do a thing without it going full scale, all because there’s an absolute nutter being followed without thought by almost an entire country.

👀

Ukraine has 56 fighter aircraft remaining on ground, greater than 80 percent of its fleet in tact. Flying 5-10 sorties per day

— Brian Everstine (@beverstine) March 11, 2022

FSB chiefs being put under house arrest, openly anti war talk on Russian tv, 3 high ranking military leaders killed in ukraine as they are having to lead from the front to encourage a demoralised army… am I the only one thinking things are starting to unravel around Putin? Will it be fast enough though?

Can’t disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output – their quite happy with short supply

Given that oil has been at a very low price for ages I’m not surprised.

I have a spare room and would have no problem. I’ve two teenage daughters so I would only accept female refugees or mother and child but I reckon that would be fair enough. My Dutch mother in law did the same 2 years ago with a Syrian refugee for a year and she is a right particular sort so I think if she can manage so can we.

^^ I think the UAE has agree to increase output?

America is even wooing Venezuela… dealing with the devil there I suppose but still not close to having to deal with Putin.

Lesser of evils.

I the only one thinking things are starting to unravel around Putin? Will it be fast enough though?

As much as a shitshow as the Russian effort has been, Putin will keep throwing soldiers into the grinder, and just launch more missiles and artillery.

Russian military losses at least double Ukraines but he can afford to lose more,

We also have to understand that Russia, with a much smaller population than the USA in the 1960s, has suffered 10% of the deaths that the USA suffered in the Vietnam War in .002 percent of the same amount of time as the USA fought the Vietnam War. https://t.co/NLy2SezVqD

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 11, 2022

Still all those deaths will not be popular at home and the sanctions will hurt

Also

To put this in the prospective of the soldiers and their ffamilies, in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan Soviet losses were approximately 9,500 killed in combat, 4,000 who died later from wounds and 1,000 died from disease and accidents.

— NCMountainRoz, (@Rosslyn43508202) March 11, 2022

Defecting pilots will have the repercussions on their families on their mind. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some other anti-defection measures in place, maybe something radio activated. Nice way to cause paranoia amongst the air crew though.

On the refugee question, I have no room. If I did, I’m afraid to say I probably still wouldn’t. So much shit with having strangers in your home even as paying renters who you’ve personally vetted and have a known leaving date.

Very proud of Jnr today
I’m not surprised what a caring thing to do, double helping of pudding.

So you should be Kryton – as for pudding, more like ram raid the local ice cream parlour.

The 80’s documentary with the blond Russian robot boxer (and epic soundtrack) that I mentioned up there ^^ just finished on ITV. I posit Red Dawn for tomorrow night…

Yep, that is quite the plan that Putin and his generals came up with.

It's 4D chess.

— Tim Neale (@TimNeale65) March 12, 2022

I see on Twitter, seemingly reliable report, that the mayor of Mariupol has been kidnapped by Russian troops at gunpoint and with plastic bag on his head.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mariia_Zolkina/status/1502306362960850949

It’s just been on the beeb.

What is wrong with these people?

Can’t disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output – their quite happy with short supply

OPEC shooting themselves in both feet as usual. All they’ve actually managed to accomplish is an aggressive and now politically acceptable switch away to renewable energy in Europe and increased reliance on domestic supply in the USA.

With any luck in twenty years the only things needing hydrocarbons are aircraft and synthetic fuels will be a reasonable proposition at that point.

Some sanity from Biden at least:

I want to be clear: We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of a united and galvanized NATO.

But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine.

A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III. And something we must strive to prevent.

— President Biden (@POTUS) March 11, 2022

We must resist at all costs being pulled into this war based on emotion.

I haven’t heard one EU, UK or US politician banging a drum to get us to get involved at all. Emotionally or not. I hear lots of “Here, have some guns, good luck, hope it goes well” but no one is saying “Hold my beer…”

We must resist at all costs being pulled into this war based on emotion.

Not sure whether this has been linked earlier but an interesting article about the need for NATO to redefine its position on triggers for intervention.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/03/time-for-nato-to-find-a-way-out-of-the-escalation-trap-in-ukraine

Biden is saying what many other political leaders have said.
It provides absolute clarity – if NATO hold to it.
Is of no help whatsoever to Ukraine and it’s citizens.

But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine

FFS. That’s a great position, but to shout it out?

“Vlad here, lads. Just seen the tweet from Biden. We’re good, no great to go with carpet bombing and chemicals – don’t forget the rape squads – it’ll be like Berlin and Austria all over again!”

Biden’s making Trump look like a master tactician.

That’s a great position, but to shout it out?

Everyone already knew it.

Biden’s making Trump look like a master tactician.

To you, maybe…

If this is accurate, it’s pretty amazing.

along with the 9th Directorate of the FSB (Internal Security for the FSB). Head of the FSB’s 5th Directorate, Colonel General Sergei Beseda (born 1954), and his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh (born 1956), have been arrested.

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 11, 2022

The raids, criminal investigations, and the arrests have taken place officially due to some trumped up accusations by the Kremlin against the 5th Directorate of corruption & bribery. The cover story for the raids is so ridiculous I won't even go into further detail.

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 11, 2022

Unfortunately for Ukraine the old “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” strategy is in play

The reality on the ground is terrible

Whether it’s the right call in the long term is another question

Personally I think we are doing what we can, there are rough edges (refugees) and the toll on Ukraine but at the moment we need to be sorting our capabilities out as we will be no where near ready to engage if that becomes necessary

Still crap for Ukraine

thols – that was posted yesterday about 4 pages back.
vinnyeh – very interesting analysis in the link you posted; can’t see any reason why NATO shouldn’t now amend Article 5 – seems, to be, this should become a screaming imperative.
putin’s modus operandi will, undoubtedly, have been noted by other authoritarians; as will NATO’s military inaction.

I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.

Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?

That’s a great position, but to shout it out?

I think the reason they’re shouting it out is to prevent Putin using the possibility of NATO involvement as propaganda. Informed Russians know the war is a disaster, most Russians don’t seem to think Ukraine is an enemy. Russians are distrustful of NATO so Putin would benefit politically from NATO getting involved. Not enforcing a no-fly zone, not supplying rusty old Migs from a NATO airfield, publicly announcing that NATO will not intervene are intended to destroy Putin’s propaganda that he is protecting Russia from NATO by making it absolutely clear that NATO is not involved in combat.

Putin is backed into a corner, he dealt himself a losing hand and has played it badly. His political hail-Mary is to get NATO involved so that Russian popular opinion swings behind him as the man who led the Russian people through the NATO invasion. A single NATO boot on Ukrainian soil will be sold as a NATO invasion of Russia. Biden’s statement was intended to torpedo that propaganda.

I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.

Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?

They’re trying to provoke NATO into getting involved. Propaganda stunt made out of desperation. Russia has realized they are losing badly and are going for hail-Mary stunts.

I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.

Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?

Putin won’t want to be the one to start a fight with NATO. It’s a bluff.

Putin won’t want to be the one to start a fight with NATO. It’s a bluff.

It’s exactly what he wants. He knows NATO will not try to invade Russia because Russia has thousands of nuclear armed ballistic missiles. Any fight with NATO would be limited, not a full-on nuclear war. Putin’s afraid of Russian political opposition and the possibility of a military coup, he’s not directly afraid of NATO. A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.

All politics is local.

. A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.

It would be a disaster for him. From the performance of the Russian armed forces so far they would get absolutely hammered. Their air force would be shot out of the sky and then the NATO airpower would decimate the armour.

On the ground, the T72’s are no match for NATO MBT’s and even the T90 is just a rebadged T72.

It would put him into a corner and could easily escalate.

I think the reason they’re shouting it out is to prevent Putin using the possibility of NATO involvement as propaganda.

A good point, but the media seems so controlled in Russia that they could strike first, claim NATO aggression and the poor buggers in Russia wouldn’t know who to believe, only that they are at (bigger) war.

It’s not unreasonable to take from Biden’s statement that what goes on in Ukraine, stays in Ukraine. Hope is one of the most powerful weapons and I think his message will give heart to the aggressors and demoralise the defenders. Lacked subtle ambiguity and qualification, in my (very limited) view.

This is a good attempt to counter Russian media manipulation and distortion of the facts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60697261

A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.

Not if he’s the one to start it.

Not if he’s the one to start it.

Which is why he’s been trying to tempt NATO into getting involved. Shelling civilians trying to flee the war is deliberate. Putin is trying to lure NATO into sending in troops on humanitarian missions. As soon as NATO boots hit Ukrainian soil, Putin has the propaganda videos he needs to get Russian public opinion behind him and stop his generals escorting him to the window to admire the gardens of the palace. Putin is terrified of Russian public opinion. The only thing that can save him is if NATO gets involved and Russians hunker down to oppose the invaders.

Not if he’s the one to start it.

But he’d claim he didn’t start it! He’s already, with a great deal of success, blaming NATO and the USA especially for his current invasion further into Ukraine.

claim NATO aggression and the poor buggers in Russia wouldn’t know who to believe

Not just in Russia.

The invasion started not long after Biden said no NATO troops would be sent to Ukraine.
Whether they intend to do anything or not the ambiguity is useful in making Putin think twice, saying a definite no gives him carte blanche tk do whatever he likes
But Hols makes a good point about propaganda.
It’s a tricky one…

It may be propaganda, but let’s assume that instruction has made its way into the field.

Like I said, if a Russian soldiern acts upon it, what would NATOs reposne be?

Not just in Russia.

Yep.