U.S. Presidential Election 2020

I agree Kelvin, even though the world has gone mad that is going to play very well with a lot of people I think.

People still underestimate how ******* good he is at this stuff. That is pure attention grabbing, smile inducing, hope filled, bombastic, voter engaging gold

He’s extremely good at mobilizing people who already like him. Problem is, that stuff alienates everyone else (the dancing is silly fun, but the most of his act is pretty offensive). Educated women have fled and everything he does seems designed to repel them. So, yes, he is good at this stuff, but this stuff is the problem, not the solution.

Hopefully it’s way too late anyway… but at this stage he only has “mobilising his people” to do… most other people have voted already, haven’t they?

Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours.. The best odds on him were at 2.89 yesterday, now down to 2.65.. Biden has gone from 1.45 to 1.62.. hoping this is due to the money staked, and not voting/polling data..

Let be honest, it’s 2020, Trump will win as no good things are likely to happen this year!

Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours

Betting odds don’t mean anything. National polls show Biden with a massive lead overall. Polls are never exactly right, but they would have to be about 5 points off for Trump to scrape out a narrow victory. It’s not impossible for Trump to win, but he would need everything to go his way. A Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory.

I hope Trump wins as Biden is NO good to the world.

If Biden wins then those who have voted or supported him deserve all the misery that comes with Biden. This guy is incompetent and this guy is a danger.

Resident troll will troll.

You make a strong and coherent case, as always. Full of love.

A Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory.

Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?

I can predict 50-50 all day long.

You make a strong and coherent case, as always. Full of love.

Vote as you wish. If you can’t make up you mind then you are lost.

Anyone up for building a new killfile? I’d be delighted to donate to a foodbank chosen by the first person to post a link to Killfile 2.

Somebody’s taken a break from masturbating over pictures of Glocks.

Let’s change the subject, trolls sustain themselves on the attention garnered.

This US Election is going to be very difficult to predict but I can guess many people losing their money in bets.

Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?

Er yeah, er no, er yeah, er maybe.

Ah, chewkw – we’ve missed your insights.
Bye bye, off you go.

Remember the scene in Robocop when the former mayor takes the newly elected mayor hostage and demands a recount?

Am expecting that.

Are you saying that both are likely to win? If it is landslide then how can Trump have a narrow victory?

There are a range of possibilities, but some are more likely than others. The most likely outcome is a comfortable win for Biden. A less likely outcome is a huge landslide for Biden. Another lower probability outcome is a narrow victory for Trump.

Therefore, a Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory, but a comfortable Biden victory is much more likely than either of those more extreme possibilities.

Slightly concerned that the odds on Trump have been shortening slightly over the last few hours.. The best odds on him were at 2.89 yesterday, now down to 2.65.. Biden has gone from 1.45 to 1.62.. hoping this is due to the money staked, and not voting/polling data..

Yeah, most Polls suggest that Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and even considering a conservative margin of error Biden is far, far more likely to win. The last few days don’t matter as much in this election, as 2/3rds of votes are already cast.

The, well mostly, non-partisan (in regards to the US anyway) UK press will want to at least create some drama to keep us watching, but if it wasn’t for the 2016 shock result, they only be talking about the scale of Biden win at this point.

If/when Biden wins, and I’m not as confident as I might sound, the Democrats and Americans will have to ask themselves a couple of big, important questions.

1) Would Trump have lost if it wasn’t for Covid? If Biden doesn’t win a landslide, I think they’ve got to ask themselves if they were ‘lucky’ Covid came

2) If it was Covid that ended his Presidency and not all the other many, many issues, is this really the turning point for post-shame politics. 4 years isn’t a long time and they won’t be fighting with a sitting President, they’ll be likely be trying to sell a Black, Female President who will have been VP during some hard economic and healthcare times. Will Trump come back for another go? He’ll be 78, but Biden is 77 now, or will they find Trump 2?

Er yeah, er no, er yeah, er maybe.

Yes, tell me the difference between a landslide and a narrow win? How can someone predict a landslide unless there is some form of indications? If a narrow win for both then that is much more logical.
So explain to me how you predict a landslide. I predict 50-50 and tell me if I am wrong.

Ah, chewkw – we’ve missed your insights.
Bye bye, off you go.

My insight is a narrow win for one candidate which I hope is Trump, but as it is 50-50 it can go either way. Whoever wins will have a rough presidential ride for few years. That’s why I say Biden is not a very bright person wanting to become President during the pandemic or possible world economic downturn. Getting Biden to turn the world economy around then good luck to you as you will find out if he is in power.

There are a range of possibilities, but some are more likely than others. The most likely outcome is a comfortable win for Biden. A less likely outcome is a huge landslide for Biden. Another lower probability outcome is a narrow victory for Trump.

Therefore, a Biden landslide is as likely as a narrow Trump victory, but a comfortable Biden victory is much more likely than either of those more extreme possibilities.

Based on your possibilities above Biden is going to win so why not just say Biden is going to win?

If there is a possibility of Trump winning then all the prediction about Biden winning does not make sense. It sounds like the possibilities of both winning or losing.

I Want Trump to win.
I do not want Biden to win.
The possibility is 50-50 regardless of polls.
Whoever wins I accept but be prepared for roller-coaster ride as the world will take few years to recover from the pandemic.

Remember the scene in Robocop

Quality!

Biden is NO good to the world.

“Don’t feed the Trolls” notwithstanding, I like to hear some actual reasons behind your hyperbole

Quality!

The adverts in Robocop are gold as well, I’d forgotten about that game. I honestly thought a YouTube ad was kicking in!

I’m expecting a day filled with rage and angst.

Hermes are delivering a pair of trail running shoes between 2pm – 4pm today.

…I like to hear some actual reasons behind your hyperbole

Non-sequitur incoming in five…four…three…

This is a polling map showing toss-up states in bronze. That’s where the two candidates are within about 3 points, which is a typical polling margin of error. In other words, it would be unsurprising if either candidate won any one of those states. The most likely thing is that Trump will win some of those states and Biden will win some.

Howevever, Biden does not need to win any of those bronze states if he wins all the states that are leaning his way. Trump has to win every single toss-up state, plus at least one state that is leaning towards Biden. Not impossible, but not particularly likely. It would require the polls to be systematically wrong by about 5 points or more across multiple states. That possibility is why Trump has a about a 10% chance of victory.

It’s also possible that the polls are biased towards Trump, in which case Biden might win all those toss-up states. That would be a landslide victory. That’s a remote possibility, but it’s about as likely as Trump winning a narrow victory.

What’s much more likely is that Biden wins some toss-up states and Trump wins some. That would give Biden a comfortable victory.

I work with someone in Massachusetts, they went to vote at 6:30am and the queue was over a mile long despite the fact that it’s below freezing there!

(Back to the Robocop scene), you can still buy a Blaupunkt car stereo that the hostage negotiator threw in to sweeten the deal. Mega!

https://www.blaupunkt.com/en/nc/products/car-multimedia/car-radio/

@thols2 map is great.

I think (where is it from?) that it understates the importance of PA though. If not statistically in the long run, then certainly in terms of its contribution to how we’ll experience things tonight and when the election result will definitively emerge.

Better to think of PA as a toss-up / bronze, where as it happens early numbers will seem to favour the republicans and then there will be days (weeks?) of slow narrowing until a final result either way emerges.

That puts Biden just short of 270. So for him to win tonight (or even in the next week or so) the bronze states are where the action is, and where attention will be in the early hours…

(similarly, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see at least one other “leans Biden” state on this map called for Trump tonight – prob in the mid-west – putting even more focus on the bronzes….

What’s much more likely is that Biden wins some toss-up states and Trump wins some. That would give Biden a comfortable victory.

In that case Biden will win as that odds are stacked against Trump.

Whoever wins does not matter now as he will become the Pandemic President with no smooth ride for his term in office in the next few years.

If Biden wins he will become a one term President and possibly prolong the economic downturn. Not good for USA or even the world.

This is a polling map showing toss-up states in bronze.

So overnight then, Florida, Texas, Ohio usually are pretty early with results. If Trump loses any of those that’s an early indication it’s going Biden’s way?

Not good for USA or even the world.

I can’t imagine how Biden could implement a more dysfunctional administration. Some family there are currently jobless with a six-figure medical debt under Trump, with no help forthcoming from anywhere.

So overnight then, Florida, Texas, Ohio usually are pretty early with results. If Trump loses any of those that’s an early indication it’s going Biden’s way?

If Trump loses Texas or Florida he might as well concede, he wont’, but he might as well.

I found the source (it’s written on it, well done me). I’l start the evening with this alternative version in mind.

Whoever wins does not matter now as he will become the Pandemic President with no smooth ride for his term in office for the next few years.

Not true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March. Just like Trump inherited Obama’s economic recovery, healthcare plan, trade deals, veteran support and tried to build upon it and say it was all his doing.

I can’t imagine how Biden could implement a more disfunctional administration

The question is no longer how dysfunctional they are but whether he has the guts to do things so drastically different to get the economy turning for good.

Some family there are currently jobless with a six-figure medical debt under Trump, with no help forthcoming from anywhere.

Trump is just about to turn that around but let see if Biden can perform the magic. Like I say if he wins he is one term president.

Not true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March.

That is a strong assumption about finding vaccine.

Not true – They’ll inherit a vaccine and a solution in January-March.

That is a strong assumption about finding vaccine.

The US President says it’s coming any day now, so I think we’re good on that.

The US President says it’s coming any day now, so I think we’re good on that.

Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.

Just noticed that CNN (and prob others) have removed their paywalls for their apps so you can stream live.

Until they have successfully showed that the vaccine works no claims can be believed.

Including this one?

Trump is just about to turn that around

Is chewkw always this insightful? It’s like a troll thats running out of batteries