U.S. Presidential Election 2020

The question is also if he does lose, no doubt there will be conspiracies and fraud claims etc, but will he actually stir up violence amongst his supporters, and will they listen? Sadly I think yes, and yes. With most police being firmly pro Trump, things could get seriously ugly.

I think ultimately though the military would uphold the law/constitution, even if the police won’t.

I think ultimately though the military would uphold the law/constitution, even if the police won’t.

I have no doubts about the military and federal police. I think people underestimate the local police. There might be a few nutters in the small towns, but most cops are not going to side with outright lawlessness.

The question is also if he does lose, no doubt there will be conspiracies and fraud claims etc, but will he actually stir up violence amongst his supporters, and will they listen? Sadly I think yes, and yes. With most police being firmly pro Trump, things could get seriously ugly.

I think ultimately though the military would uphold the law/constitution, even if the police won’t.

The US would do well to suspend his Twitter account on election night, in fact if they won’t / can’t someone should wrestle the phone out of his tiny hands.

Yes, he will tweet “fake news” he will at the very least tip toe around calling for armed up risings, and I suspect some parts of US Police will support him, although **** knows why.

I’m saying…. at least a few localised riots nationwide and several deaths linked to protests and more mass shootings linked to Trump in the next few years.

The US is a **** up place in parts.

Huge poll from Morning Consult just dropped. Canvassed 14,500 likely voters (most polls have a sample size between 600 and 1500). This means it has a margin of error of +/- 1% (as opposed to the normal +/- of 3-4%). So very accurate.

Puts Biden on 52% to Trump’s 44%. So 8% lead.

Which tallies with the last 6 national polls prior to this one, which average at 7.85% lead for Biden.

Turnout this year is going to be very high. Some saying as high as 150million.

If we say 140million to be safe, 52% gives Biden 73million votes, Trump has 61.5. So an additional 11.5 million votes for Biden.

In 2016 Clinton beat Trump by just under 3million votes and he just managed to scrape through the electoral college.

This time Biden has an additional 8.5 million votes over and above what Clinton had.

Critically though, the electoral college doesn’t work on a pure majority, and in theory Trump can win again using the same base that won it for him. Namely white voters and specifically non college educated white voters.

However, in order to do this he needs a properly convoluted route to win, most likely by taking Texas and Florida and Georgia (two too close to call and one within margin of error, with Biden ahead by 3 points in Florida and .2% in Georgia, and Trump ahead by .7% in Texas) as well as taking enough from the rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio and Iowa). Biden is ahead by 8% in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by 5% in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Nevertheless if we accept that Minnesota and Wisconsin are too far out for the Orange baboon, then he needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania (despite being 5 points down) as well as Ohio (.7% up and Iowa (2% up). In Texas he’s 1.3% ahead, albeit the latest large scale poll (Morning consult again with margin of +/- 1%) shows a dead heat. Georgia is essentially all square, and Florida Biden is up 3%.

So Trump needs to win a bunch of states, all of which he is either behind in (in two states by more than 5%, above the standard margin of error) or essentially all square, other than Ohio and Iowa, both of which are well within the margin.

So doable, but very, very difficult.

However, where it gets really interesting is HOW he won in 2016, or more accurately WHO won it for him.

In 2016 Trump smashed the non-college educated white voters, winning 67% of a demographic that makes up approx 44% of the electorate. And crucially more than 50% of the electorate in the rust belt. Clinton got a paltry 28%.

Polls nationally show that Trump’s base in this area has shrunk considerably, from 67% to 55%. Whilst Biden’s has grown to 44%. This means that Trump loses approx 8million votes (41m to 33m) whilst Biden gains 10m (17m to 27m).

More importantly in key rust belt states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump’s gone from 62% to 52% Michigan and from 64% to 52% in Pennsylvania. In the same states Biden goes from 31% to 45% and 32% to 39%.

So you have a picture whereby Trump has been haemorrhaging support nationally within the constituency that got him elected, and to the same extent within the core states that swung it for him and that he will need to carry this time to have any chance. Based on current polling he cannot win without at least one of Michigan or Pennsylvania, and probably both given that to only need one he would then have to win all of Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which he is 2-3% behind in.

In other words, unless he pulls an absolutely enormous rabbit out of a very, very large hat, he is boogered!

but most cops are not going to side with outright lawlessness.

I dunno, I think lots of the police have been radicalised, essentially. They see liberal protestors as antifa terrorists – they were shown to be supporting the Proud Boys surreptitiously at recent marches etc, even offering advice on how to not get arrested etc

If they think the ‘deep state’ has stolen the election from Trump who knows how they will react.

Did I hear rightly that some Walmarts have pulled guns and ammo from the shelves in certain states for fear of violence after the election? Its seems absurd that an operation like them would remove money spinners from the shelves on moral grounds. But then again its 2020 innit.

Did I hear rightly that some Walmarts have pulled guns and ammo from the shelves in certain states for fear of violence after the election?

You heard right. The problem for the US is that I can’t see exactly when it will be safe to return them, regardless of the outcome this week.

Unfortunately I reckon there will be riots regardless of who wins 😭

It’s just a matter of who riots and where …..

As a non-American I’m just wondering what Donald Trump has done or what policies he’s put in place in the last 4 years that would make anyone want to vote for him?

The only thing I can see is that unemployment continued on a downward trend until COVID-19 hit.

what Donald Trump has done or what policies he’s put in place in the last 4 years that would make anyone want to vote for him?

Spaaaaacee Fooooorccceee!!! Although he didn’t start that, it’s been in the works for years.

The US system makes it tough to figure out who did what. The president might sign something into law even though congress, or a particular congress person was really responsible for it happening.
It the president might sign an executive order which is entirely his or her work.

Probably the biggest thing he’s done is appoint a lot of judges at all levels, which will change the leaning of the legal system from top to bottom for years to come. That will appeal to right leaning and religious ‘christians”.

As a non-American I’m just wondering what Donald Trump has done or what policies he’s put in place in the last 4 years that would make anyone want to vote for him?

American politics isn’t about policies, it’s about persuading people to vote for you. So you just have rallies and tell people what they want to hear. That’s all Trump does.

The fascinating thing about Trump is that his administration has actually done some things which should be good for people who would generally vote democrat.
If he stopped the lying and bluster long enough to point some of them out, the voters might vote differently. It’s the constant ego-driven BS that gets in the way.

It’s a long list but scan it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/opinion/fact-check-trump.html

Good news from Texas with the drive-through vote case being thrown out- that was pretty much a test, a petition which openly had no legal standing but which they’d hoped could succeed because the Texas Supreme Court is packed with republicans (and which they also knew that the supreme court would not overrule). It got absolutely laughed out, best possible outcome and hopefully a nice reminder for people that filling a court with republicans doesn’t mean they’ll break the law for you.

cromolyolly
Free Member

If he stopped the lying and bluster long enough to point some of them out, the voters might vote differently.

Well sort of. Yes there are policies that he could pitch at a lot of traditional democrat voters, but only at the cost of admitting that most of his policies have hurt most of his current voters. He could never do both. I mean, he could try, by lying to both, but that hasn’t worked out, because you can’t fool all of the people all of the time especially when Some Of The People can literally see that you said something contraductory to another Some Of The People.

P-Jay
Full Member

The Democrats have done what they needed to, okay Biden isn’t Bernie or Corbyn so those of a very left of centre persuasion think he’s worse than Trump, but he’s not.

No, they do not. The closest you’ll get to “Biden is worse than Trump” is from the people who think 5 more years of Trump will basically trash the post-war concensus so badly that the next election can bring in an actual left wing government, and that it’s basically harm today for progress tomorrow. But they’re very rare.

I mean, “very left of centre” is rare in itself in the states so a subset of that subset is basically about 30 people with a geocities website.

only at the cost of admitting that most of his policies have hurt most of his current voters. He could never do both

The troubling thing is I don’t believe for a second he needs to. His base will vote for him no matter what he says. They will parrot his lies until they sound true, even if they didn’t believe them to begin with. He signed into law some pretty progressive criminal justice measures which will primarily benefit poor african americans while telling his base he was going to lock up everyone in sight and protect people from being attacked in their own homes. His base listened to what he said and I bet not a single one of them would know about the legislation.

I fear that we might be making the same mistake as the first time, where everyone took him literally, no one took him seriously.

Biden isn’t Bernie or Corbyn so those of a very left of centre persuasion think he’s worse than Trump, but he’s not.

Before he became Obama’s bro, he was a seriously non progressive legislator. He voted against school bussing, for seriously draconian sentencing laws, for the iraq war. Not being funny but his time with Obama whitewashed that. Trouble is you don’t really know what you are getting with Joe, other than not Trump. The really ironic thing is that Harris is being portrayed as a socialist. This is the woman who zealously prosecuted death penalty cases in California, and supported hardline policies that affected largely minorities. Who knows what you are really getting with her.

It’s incredible to think that in this day and age, in a western country, people are seriously talking about the police and/or army going rouge, gun fighting in the streets between members of the public, the old Pres refusing to leave office ….. sounds like Zimbabwe!

Just listened to the bunker podcast with Brian klaas

In terms of election night itself, he said best thing to do is wait for results from Florida, north Carolina and Texas where mail in and polling booth votes are counted at the the same time so you ll get a final result at 3-4am our time. Those results likely to come in at a similar time

If biden gets any of those then it’s done. Saves having to pull an all nighter.

northwind – the separate case in from of Judge Hanen is being heard today but no decision yet as far as I know so it’s not finalised yet.
Hanen is staunch republican.

Saves having to pull an all nighter.

Think I’ll do what I did last time and set an alarm for 3am. Dunno why, I have a sinking feeling Trump will surprise everyone. On the surface the large turnout looks to benefit Biden but it’s so polarised both sides have equal motivation to get the vote out. Not that I think it matter much. Biden is the least inspiring democrat candidate in a long time. Clinton wasn’t much better but at least she had the benefit of being a woman. I just despair Sanders didn’t win the nomination. If Biden does win the next four years will see a masterclass of inaction and fudging.

Just listened to the bunker podcast with Brian klaas

Caught that this morning. Was a good listen.

Biden may be uninspiring but he is “safe” enough for any rational non-trumper to vote for. And, my personal prediction, president for a year before providing a soft entry for Kamala who will then show everyone how it is done in time for reelection. I hope.

Geocities is shut down soz

My money is on Trump calling it early with the heavy mob of lawyers. Every time the press say Jo has it on the bag Trump wins a little bit more of the vote.

I have no doubts about the military and federal police. I think people underestimate the local police. There might be a few nutters in the small towns, but most cops are not going to side with outright lawlessness.

On an official / managerial level no. But the police unions can be pretty nasty pieces of work

https://www.motherjones.com/crime-justice/2020/05/minneapolis-police-union-president-kroll-george-floyd-racism/

So bad apples within the police department have the backing of their union and while officers aren’t instructed to behave in a violent and lawless manner, if they do.

The actual actions of the police are perhaps less of a worry than their inactions. Throughout the BLM protests of late there have been lots of incidents of ‘Negligent Response’ – 

This week, police in Kenosha, Wisconsin, faced intense scrutiny over their response to armed white men and militia groups gathered in the city amid demonstrations by Black Lives Matter activists and others over the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black father of three who was left paralyzed after being shot in the back. On Wednesday, Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old who appeared to consider himself a militia member and had posted “blue lives matter” content, was arrested on suspicion of murder after the fatal shooting of two protesters.

Activists in Kenosha say police there have responded aggressively and violently to Black Lives Matter demonstrators, while doing little to stop armed white vigilantes. Supporting their claims is at least one video taken before the shooting that showed police tossing bottled water to what appeared to be armed civilians, including one who appeared to be the shooter, the AP noted: “We appreciate you being here,” an officer said on loudspeaker.

Police also reportedly let the gunman walk past them with a rifle as the crowd yelled for him to be arrested because he had shot people, according to witnesses and video reviewed by the news agency.

The Kenosha sheriff, David Beth, has said the incident was chaotic and stressful.

German told the Guardian on Wednesday: “Far-right militants are allowed to engage in violence and walk away while protesters are met with violent police actions.” This “negligent response”, he added, empowers violent groups in dangerous and potentially lethal ways: “The most violent elements within these far-right militant groups believe that their conduct is sanctioned by the government. And therefore they’re much more willing to come out and engage in acts of violence against protesters.”

Yup.

A heavily redacted version of the 2006 document had previously been published, one of a handful of documents revealing federal officials’ growing concern with white supremacists’ “historical” interest in “infiltrating law enforcement communities or recruiting law enforcement personnel.” A different internal document obtained by The Intercept in 2017 had also noted that “domestic terrorism investigations focused on militia extremists, white supremacist extremists, and sovereign citizen extremists often have identified active links to law enforcement officers.”

https://theintercept.com/2020/09/29/police-white-supremacist-infiltration-fbi/

Many police forces in the US are heavily militarised also.

Yeah, police unions in the states basically aren’t what you think they are. Kind of ironic that after over a century of villifying and crushing genuine unionisations, the right has now so completely embraced the one example that genuinely does act like an organised crime gang.

I mean seriously, check this out. An armed mob- of policemen- attack a car for no reason, smash in its windows, drag the passengers including 2 kids out, abduct the kid, beat the mother in the street then arrest her with no justification then release her without charge, don’t get medical attention for the kid despite the injuries he took during the attack, and do nothing to help her recover the vehicle. All that not bad enough? How about faking up some propaganda pics using the kid?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/30/philadelphia-fop-posts-toddler/

“We are not your enemy. We are the Thin Blue Line. And WE ARE the only thing standing between Order and Anarchy.”

to do is wait for results from Florida,

Florida has voted with the eventual winner since the 70s with iirc only a couple of exceptions. Wait up for those results and then go to bed. Set the alarm for 7am or 2025 depending.

I just watched the video of that incident Northwind referred to, jeez. And they call antifa thugs.

https://fusion.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-police-car-video-west-unrest-child-backseat-20201028.html

“We are not your enemy. We are the Thin Blue Line. And WE ARE the only thing standing between Order and Anarchy.”

Very creepy doublespeak.

On the police unions etc stuff, it really is worth listening to Robert Evans’ Behind The Bastards 5 or 6 part special on the history of the police. Some truly staggering stuff in there and a good timeline to explain how they are how they are today.

Just in – Judge Hanen rejects GOP case at Texas federal court.
https://www.axios.com/texas-harris-county-drive-thru-voting-5a874c81-b927-48e7-8dcb-3bc1d5d76f6b.html

In theory the judiciary is independent from both the executive and Congress but of course each side promotes its own favourites. Sometimes it seems judges like to assert their independence – or maybe they have an eye on the future. Didn’t Trump’s first nominee to the Supreme Court, Kavenagh, vote with the Democrats on his first judgement?

Yes, Kavanaugh’s first vote on the SC sided with the Dems argument but at the end of last week he voted against extending the deadline for counting mail-in votes in Wisconsin.
If the GOP appeal the Texas decision, we’ll have a chance to see how he, Gorsuch and Barrett will vote.

The Supreme Court seems to be holding a line that this close to an election they should just let the states do what they will, as long as it’s not outright illegal or unconstitutional. That might cut both ways but it gets really messy where state lawmakers and state law enforcers clash. And really really messy if/when state judges cross the line, as it’s clear the republican party expects and demands they do.

So far, state judiciaries have decided the multiple cases brought by the GOP impartially – unlike the partisan SC decision regarding Wisconsin.
I was surprised that Hanen tossed the case in Harris County; given his political persuasion and reputation I expected him to find for the GOP but to say their case had no standing was good news.
Two of the three republicans who brought the case have form with multiple previous claims and there has been talk of them being either sued or barred from bringing further cases as vexatious litigants.

The trump show is on bbc2

Its going through his episode where he drew an extension onto the weather service diagram because he had it in his head that a hurricane would strike alabama

He is deluded

Assuming the polls are right and trump does lose, there’s no telling how low he will go

Another GOP challenge to voting/counting fails – but an appeal is possible.

A judge has rejected a request by Republicans to stop ballot counting in Clark County, Nevada.
The Nevada Republican Party and Donald Trump’s re-election campaign had filed a lawsuit last month claiming the county violated state election laws.
The lawsuit argued that aspects of the ballot counting process were not observed closely enough, so officials should stop counting and verifying mail-in ballots.
However on Monday, District Court Judge James Wilson denied the request saying that there was no evidence of improper vote counting.
Nevada Republican Party Chairman Michael McDonald said the party has not decided if they will appeal to the state’s Supreme Court.

It seems the judiciary are acting impartially and applying the law as intended; donny won’t be impressed.
Well, that’s just tough shit for the orange buffoon.

It seems the judiciary are acting impartially and applying the law as intended; donny won’t be impressed.
Well, that’s just tough shit for the orange buffoon.

We’ll see. In Bush vs Gore in 2000 the SC ended the recount with a conservative majority without all the ballots being counted. The count in Miami Dade was ended by Republican activists trying to break into the count and threatening the counters and supervisors. This causwd them to miss the deadline.

That’s the value of packing the Supreme Court before an election.

Alright folks! The polling spreadsheets are locked and our final model run of 2020 has kicked off. This map shows our penultimate election forecast for each state. Our final forecast (which shouldn't be very different!) will be up by morning.https://t.co/O6Lknvo6Kp pic.twitter.com/v2wnjxBicH

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 3, 2020

Much to Fivey's chagrin—or perhaps delight—Biden keeps oscillating between like 89.9% ("favored") and 90.1% ("clearly favored") in our forecast with every random poll we add. (And boy have there been some random polls today.)https://t.co/ajG88SznSA pic.twitter.com/FdOT1ODMe7

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020

That’s the kickoff.

Whoa, @JoeBiden has beaten @realDonaldTrump by five votes to none in Dixville Notch, N.H.-in the traditional kickoff 2020 Election Day voting. Huge surprise. Polling had them running neck and neck! https://t.co/UAmYFh1yQl

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 3, 2020

Clear election fraud in Dixville Notch. SAD!