The effect of a Scottish Yes vote on the rest of the UK?

Scots each receive almost £1,300 more public spending than the English

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10692466/Scots-each-receive-1300-more-spending-despite-oil-tax-drop.html

Do you only read the torygraph, or do you sometimes add the Times for a bit of balance?

Maybe you could look at it (as I and lots of others up here do) that successive westminster governments, of all colours, have prioritised London and the the South East, to the total exclusion of everybody else

you could also look at it the other the way, the south east produces more per head and generates more revenue through tax (income, stamp duty, VAT, corporation tax etc) and that money goes to the rest of the U.K. helping the obese and liver damaged live longer and keeping the great unwashed feckless idle work shy layabouts in fags, booze and sky sports subscriptions.

🙄

You could, but apparently it’s patronising condescending twoddle.

Do you only read the torygraph, or do you sometimes add the Times for a bit of balance?

Nah just googled, ’tis easy you should try some balance.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/public-spending-per-head-in-scotland-revealed-1-3197170

A ‘yes’ vote will affect the rest of the UK massively for the next 15 years or so due to the existing infrastructure. Scotland won’t suddenly become independant and the rest of the UK taxpayers will continue to bail them out financially for years to come irrespective of oil revenue. Salmond knows this and it is the only way he could possibly afford his idyll of Brigadoon.

Nah just googled, ’tis easy you should try some balance.

Looking at that figure in isolation is hardly balanced!

Well I find it interesting, not news though as it’s always been this way.

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn04033.pdf

Maybe you could look at it (as I and lots of others up here do) that successive westminster governments, of all colours, have prioritised London and the the South East, to the total exclusion of everybody else. Nobody else’s interests even figure on the radar when setting policy. We’re just meant to suck it up! .

Except that the facts don’t actually show that. The facts show that the South East supports the rest of the UK. So the Westminster government sends a disproportionately larger amount of money from the South East to the rest of the country.

In good news though; currency traders are presently making a killing on Sterling. Every cloud eh?

firestarter – Member

I think the majority in England will just be glad when its over. Im sick of bloody seeing it in the news
and this atttiude is why many Scots feel disenfranchised with the UK. The great neighbour 10 times our size dominates policy and news. Life in Scotland is different, no matter which way you view it there is a dreadfully patronising approach to much in Scotland.

@mudshark – that approach has been rubbished so many times recently. Resources in England cost less per capita becuase they’ve got 10 times the population.

HS2 for example – how wouyld that central spending including Scottish tax contributions benefit Scotland?

@ Mr Smith – Corporations and other wealth generating initiatives in the UK have favoured the SE for so long that it has resulted in the massive gulf in economic circumstances. Finance is London’s big industry, successive governments, after the collapse of heavy industries failed to redress this leaving Northern England, Wales and Scotland without meaningful investment.

jambalaya – Member

@digga, Sterling hit 1.73 vs USD recently, far higher than it’s been in the past 5 years

Cable is already taking a clobbering, it’ll get even more stick on a decisive YES.

IMHO, Carney would be compelled to react, no matter what the effect of higher rates might be on the overall econmy, in order to avoid imported inflation. It would be unlikely to be desireable to let sterling fall too far. Already it’s at 1.61 today: http://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/1541-dollar-rate-today-conversion-rates-vs-pound-and-euro-534543

From the Guardian this morning. Bad news all round for companies either based in or with links to Scotland.

Nearly £4bn has been wiped off the value of FTSE 100 companies with strong links to Scotland, writes Nick Fletcher, Guardian columnist and writer of the Market Forces column.

Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland have taken the biggest hits, down £1.6bn and £1.14bn respectively after weekend polls showed the yes vote taking a lead ahead of next week’s referendum.

In more bad news for the UK government, which wants to keep the union intact, the fall in the two banks means the value of the taxpayer’s stake has dropped by £786m.

Elsewhere electricity group SSE has lost £351m, Standard Life £296m, Babcock International – which employs 4,750 people in Scotland and recently warned independence could lead to job losses – has seen £190m knocked off its market value, pumps maker Weir has dropped by £119m and Aberdeen Asset Management by £59m.

You’re missing the point. The present economy is the result of decades with all the parties being London centric, in thrall to the banking sector, and absolutely shackled to a certain narrow neo liberal economic model. This has benefitted a certain part of the economy to a ridiculous degree. The parts of the country this economic model didn’t suit, were ignored, then just abandoned to their fate. With devastating results in places!

My point is that given a modicum of independence, and the ability to unshackle itself from this rigid, narrow economic model, then other parts of the economy would be in considerably better shape. Its not a case of looking at economics purely as they now are, but how they could be given a different form of governance. This applies to social policy too. As Scotland is presently demonstrating

THIS is what a lot of Scots are (very sensibly IMHO) voting Yes too. And I’d bloody love the chance for the North to go the same way

@digga well that would make our exports cheaper. You cannot hold up a currency with interest rate changes if there has been a shift in fundamentals.

mudshark – that approach has been rubbished so many times recently. Resources in England cost less per capita becuase they’ve got 10 times the population.

Rubbished? Point is a separate Scotland will have to pay that money itself – maybe the oil money will cover that for decades to come.

binners – Member

You’re missing the point…………..

Binners, it’s pointless.

They know this to be true, but they genuinely don’t care how other people live.
They care purely for themselves.

There is no such thing as society anymore……..

In good news though; currency traders are presently making a killing on Sterling. Every cloud eh?

Zero sum game, as many winners as losers. Exporters are happy, importers less so.

He’s withdrawn millions of pounds of benefits, food banks have increased, the NHS is being sold off and staff haven’t had pay rise beyond 1% since he came into power and that’s just for starters. Losing Scotland no one cares about.

Let me fix that for you…

He’s withdrawn millions of pounds of benefits reduced benefits slightly and still to a level that when adjusted for inflation is much higher than they were under Labour in 2002, food banks have increased at a lower rate than under the last government, the NHS is being sold off has received year on year budget increases despite Labour saying at the last election they wouldn’t commit to that and staff haven’t had pay rise beyond 1% since he came into power have received 1% plus their annual length of service awards over a period when other sectors experienced mandatory wage cuts and redundancies and that’s just for starters. Losing Scotland no one cares about.

The great neighbour 10 times our size dominates policy and news.

No. The economic and political centre of YOUR COUNTRY dominates policy. As for news, hardly. Yes there’s a lot about Westminster, but that’s because it’s where YOUR COUNTRY is run from, so of course it would.

To get back to the original question:

The effect of a Scottish Yes vote on the rest of the UK?

Somewhatslightlydazed’s prediction is:

Nothing much at first. It will take years to define what both sides mean by “independence” and then to seperate the two countries both legally and economically. By then, times will have changed and people may find they do not like whatever version of independence our leaders have lumbered us with.

Meanwhile the Tories will have won another general election and rUK will get Cameron’s promised referendum on the EU. A fit of anti-Scottish and anti-European sentiment will sweep aside any logic and rUK will spend years trying to unpick 3 decades of social and economic legislation that have bound us to Europe. And again, when its too late, people will start wondering if this was such a good idea.

Whatever happesn, don’t go holding your breath waiting for the great leap forward, whatever side of the border you live on.

I think ‘Labour’ will unelectable for a generation until Blair and Brown’s legacy has faded.

Right now, without Scotland, Labour would only be three seats short of a majority. Enough to hang a parliament with the Lib Dems, Greens and independents.

If someone like David Milliband was running the show, they’d be out in front.

The cult of the individual, isn’t it?
If you discredit the idea of collective good and promote the idea of the self above all else, then this is the consequence.

This +1, when you have the conservatives espousing rampant individualism and UKIP espousing rampant nationalism this is the logical consequence. Look forward to seeing the Welsh leave as well. It’s going to be fun watching the right **** the country up even more whilst bleating about labours overspending. At least they didn’t preside over the dissolution of the country.

I suspect a break from Scotland may also be one of the first steps towards the UK leaving Europe as those political parties who lean to the right will end up with a greater majority over Labour and the Lib Dems.

Which will lead to the demise of the UK’s financial sector, discourage foreign investment in the country and land us unable to deal with an ageing population. Meanwhile we will still have to listen to EU regulations. But the right will still claim it a victory for Engerrrland!

people may find they do not like whatever version of independence our leaders have lumbered us with.

Are any of the bookies taking bets on that?

robdixon – not much ‘fixing’ as ‘breaking’ that I can see…

What is the date for splitting parliaments if they get a yes vote?

Will they get it done before the general election? That in itself will create some complication as if a government is formed based on UK MPs then the Scottish parliament splits we will need another election if the majorities are not maintained.

When the NE was considered for devolution type systems years ago they turned it down. I still think it would be the wrong thing to do. Yes you get more local politicians who know the area better but they are still politicians and I would imagine you would just creat more layers of beaurocracy.

No – not before 2016.

The term ‘zombie MPs’ was used in the media today, which amused me. Are there any other kind?

Meanwhile the Tories will have won another general election

Will be a first since 1992…

An iS will kill Cameron’s career deader than roadkill. If the Scots vote yes, he may as well go straight to the Queen. Next UK govt will be Lab/Lib Dem. coalition.

When the NE was considered for devolution type systems years ago they turned it down. I still think it would be the wrong thing to do. Yes you get more local politicians who know the area better but they are still politicians and I would imagine you would just creat more layers of beaurocracy.

Indeed. It was rejected in the North West for the same reasons. It was blatant tokenism. It would have involved creating a load more bureaucracy, another load of parasitic politicians. As far as actually devolving any real power from Whitehall, some actual decision making, that was never being offered. That would be kept firmly down in London.

If there was any actual political will to genuinely allow communities to make their own decisions, they could easily do it without creating new authorities. But they don’t want to do that. And fight it at every turn. Thats why we’re seeing blind panic now, and essentially the offer of the Devo Max that Salmond wanted in the first place, but which Westminster rejected out-of-hand. All of a sudden its on the agenda as the possible least worst option. But look how far its gone to the wire before they would countenance it.

Britain is the most centralised economy in the developed world. London is virtually an independent City State. But its an Independent City State who’s economic policy, set to serve its own interests exclusively, is having a massively detrimental effect on the rest of the nation.

And right now that isn’t healthy for anyone. Not even the South East. Its experiencing a recovery that is propelling house prices into the stratosphere, while the rest of the countries economy stagnates, or in places, carries on to shrink further. Does anyone think this is a good thing? Apart from London Estate Agents, and landlords?

Its in the interests of everyone to devolve power to the regions. Even the South East. But those who control the levers, want to keep the status quo, as themselves and their friends are the very few clear winners

An iS will kill Cameron’s career deader than roadkill. If the Scots vote yes, he may as well go straight to the Queen. Next UK govt will be Lab/Lib Dem. coalition.

Well pretty much all the Tory voters I know are smiling at the prospect of far fewer Labour MPs and more certainty over future Tory governments

Could be good for Royal Mail, they can split in two and the universal service obligation for Scotland will go to Scottish-Mail, which will improve profitability for Mail-rUK.

The ‘no’ camp, particularly the Tories, really just don’t get this at all, do they?

The London Mayor, over-privelidged Tory Toff, and all round Bullingdon bell end has just been on the radio. Essentially telling uppity oiks north of the border that they are destroying the Union, and therefore are very very naughty indeed, and should just bally well do as they’re told!

I’m sure that’ll help matters Boris. Alex Salmond must be loving it! watching the polls shift every time another one of them opens their mouth. They’re doing his job for him

I’m laughing at the comments about the power balance being right due to the south east being much more prosperous and having to bail out the rest of the country. That’s the whole bloody point! Do you think we in the north like living off the coat tails of our wealthy brethren in the south? There was a time in this country in the not too distant past where the northern working class had pride in their work, their communities, and their collective ability to be self-dependent. That’s now been replaced by benefits-dependence, drink and drug addiction, crime, anti-social behaviour, obesity, celebrity envy and a general culture of hating your fellow humans. Is it any wonder that they might look to alternatives to the London-based government which has put them in this position?

Is it any wonder that they might look to alternatives to the London-based government which has put them in this position?

That’s a gigantic oversimplification.

The North (and South Wales and wherver else) was based on heavy industry and manufacturing. That was ALWAYS going to be moved to other countries because they can simply do it cheaper. It was inevitable, that’s got nothing to do with government policy. The only way round that is protectionism, and that never a good idea.

I haven’t read the whole thread but;

The average temperature for the rest of the UK will increase if Scotland leaves it.

So I think they owe it to us English to give us warmer summers by leaving.

brooess – Member

Who knows?
Some companies currently based in Scotland have already announced they’ll be moving out if there’s a Yes vote – Standard Life and Bank of Scotland being 2 significant examples.

Ah, this is the thing where you say something untrue in one thread, get corrected, then just retreat from that thread and post it again in another thread hoping to avoid being picked up? Bonzer. Neither company has said they’ll move out if there’s a Yes vote.

The North (and South Wales and wherver else) was based on heavy industry and manufacturing. That was ALWAYS going to be moved to other countries because they can simply do it cheaper. It was inevitable, that’s got nothing to do with government policy. The only way round that is protectionism, and that never a good idea.

We’re not stupid FFS!! We realise this! Its not about economic policy. Its about humanity. Or the lack of it!

Its the way it was done! Communities were decimated!!!! They were simply abandoned to their fate by central government. With the consequences listed above. And did anyone even notice in London? Did they ****!!! Michael Heseltine was a single voice raised that this was absolute stupidity!!! But was he listened too? Again… was he ****!! As long as the Champagne kept flowing in The City, then all was at one with the world.

So why the hell wouldn’t you vote for independence from a system that has treated you with nothing but contempt for decades, and has been absolutely indifferent to the social problems created, wilfully blind to peoples suffering, purely pursuing policies that further enrich those who never suffered any ill effects from this monumental shift in the economy in the first place?

Its an absolute no brainer, to me. I can’t even believe its this close! Why you’d want to hang on to an utterly bankrupt system. It’d be like the woman who sticks around in an abusive marriage. Getting a kicking every night when he gets in from the pub, but won’t leave….

That was ALWAYS going to be moved to other countries because they can simply do it cheaper.

And that’s not also a massive simplification? Even accepting this was inevitable, which I don’t, then the primary responsibility of any government should have been to cushion the blow and manage that change in a way that would cause the least possible harm to those affected and the country at large in both the short and long term. What happened to northern industries in the 80/90s was not a government reacting to economic events, but the result of carefully considered, and efficiently implemented government policy.

primary responsibility of any government should have been to cushion the blow

Of course. But it’s not really right to blame the loss of industry on Westminster, which is what you were appearing to do.

The thing is binners, despite your heart-felt political beliefs, do you really believe that things will be better for Scottish residents, especially those resident outside the southern belt, after a ‘yes’ vote?

Or will Edinburgh (or maybe Glasgow?) replace London and the southern belt replace the SE? I don’t personally think that Utopia is even what Salmond is offering but it is what some believe they are being offered.

Do you mean the central belt? I can’t see Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders becoming the new Kent :p

I keep hearing claims from No voters that all the Yes voters are expecting Utopia. I’m not, and I haven’t seen anyone else claim that. We all know it’ll be a gradual process to change things for the better but you’ve got to start somewhere.

Peston says companies will move, he knows stuff….

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29103437