I think there will be many in the Conservative party who will question the wisdom of facilitating the referendum, so there will be naturally questions asked about Cameron’s Leadership. I think he will survive it.
I don’t see a Yes vote making a Labour government more likely in 2015, all the UK parties supported the No campaign so a Yes vote is an equal defeat for them all. UKIP’s popularity has forced all the major parties and in particular Labour to face up to the immigration issue with is very important to the UK electorate. The voters of France and Spain have moved very dramatically to the right in the past 18 months.
In the even of a Yes vote I think the UK parties will make how the negotiations are dealt with a key issue in the 2015 election, I think there could be a little bit of a contest to show who’s the toughest.
FWIW I think Westminster politics and policy are hugely favourable to the rest of the country at the expense of the South East which pays far more in personal or business taxes than it gets back. Scottish independence, if it occurs, is going to show the rest of the UK the lie that is politicians promising Nirvana. An independent Scotland is going to struggle financially and socially, in my view is going to be much worse off than at present. IMO this will strengthen the center and right political parties in the UK over time.