Should Theresa May resign?

Boris is circling, the other two are busted. I’m wondering what DD has on her that he’s still in the cabinet, whilst AR needs to find a seat where she’s likely to still be an MP after the next election (if it wasn’t for that, she seems the most credible option).

decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.

You may well be right on the first part, the second part depends on who wins the election, and whether those negotiating for the EU consider it worth extending the timetable to get a better deal for the EU (hint: I doubt they’ll feel that way about the Tories).

As said before, Rudd is never going to be an option with such a tiny minority, Davis reputation is ruined – his mad gamble on an early ge was obviously to give himself a cushion because he knew the negotiations were gonna be a shitshow way beyond his abilities

slowoldman – Member

Well it is perhaps questionable that the government should be in a position of possible favouritism with one of the major players in NI politics with respect to the peace agreement and brokering power sharing.

Hands up everyone who remembers what happened last time

Tories will never agree any figure as they know thats an election loser so decent chance nothing is agreed before another eelction and A50 hard exit is then just (say) 6-12 months away.

Slightly comical that jamba is back predicting away, having just got everything about the election completely and utterly wrong. Crack on, jamba!

Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE, that was May all the way. Davies has a strong following in the party his biggest threat for the leadership is Boris.

Result gives Davies some interesting options, he can be as bold as he likes now, if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won’t agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50

DrJ I did pick the winner just not the margin I (and all the commentators) thought 8)

Not what is being reported.

if EU play hardball he can just say Parliament won’t agree / UK needs another GE and EU knows that will mean any deal is impossible within 2 years and we will be out and onto WTO automatically under A50

Yay, will of the people. Though see my comments above regarding EU attitude to a UK team willing to negotiate rather than demand.

and it begins :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/

still time to edit your post Jambalaya .

i said the tories would win with a smaller majority than they expected so technically i was actually more correct on this than you 8) and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well 😉

Not sure Davies had much to do with the early GE

According to Andrew Neil last night he was the man who persuaded May

Result gives Davies some interesting options,

He was all about concessions last night

http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/hung-parliament-brexit-single-market-eu-latest-news-theresa-may-majority-tory-mandate-david-davis-a7780541.html?amp

He’s looked rabbit in the headlights for a while now as the reality of Brexit has dawned on him

and i only made one prediction and i can remember it as well

😀

Another reason why this election has significantly reduced the likelihood of Brexit actually happening, is the collapse of the UKIP vote.

A majority of the Conservative MPs did not support Brexit, and the referendum only happened because of the votes that UKIP was getting at the expense of the Conservatives and threatening the seats of some of their MPs.

If, as appears possible, the main focus of politics in Parliament and the UK is moving back to a traditional Conservative/Labour (Left/Right) battle with all eyes on an early election, and UKIP are a much weaker force and no longer able to threaten to split the right wing vote in Conservative constituencies, then the majority of Conservative MPs will not be interested in actively pushing for progress in Brexit negotiations: all they will care about is winning their own seats and getting a majority in the next election.

I doubt that they would elect David Davis as leader, precisely because he is a conviction politician who would stick by his beliefs and principles regardless of the political cost to himself, his party or fellow MPs. The Conservative MPs don’t want a conviction politician who would be willing to risk their seats and overall victory to pursue a Brexit, when they themselves either do not believe in it or are at best lukewarm: they want a political star, a proven vote winner who will help them get re-elected.

That means Boris. And Boris as leader is probably the worst hope for those who support Brexit. If Boris perceives continuing with Brexit is harmful to him and his political ambitions, he will do a 180 degree turn and jettison it, and he is probably the one politician who has the political skills and charisma to get away with saying to the electorate that he tried, but it just wasn’t possible, and now we need to forget Brexit and focus on the future.

Slowster you missed your calling

Thanks for the advice earlier

We’re in for very interesting times.

I still don’t understand Theresa May’s folly in cosying up to the DUP and risking destruction of the Northern Ireland peace deal. It’s apparent that Ruth Davidson of the Tories is pretty livid about this. Tory infighting can be breathtakingly destructive, remember that is exactly the reason why we ended up with a referendum whereby pretty much no-one in the country had access to the full facts before making a decision.

Meanwhile, May is back at Downing Street with the same tired cabinet, the same message, the same priorities and a weakened hand. She’s learned nothing about this election and unless she finds a way to reach out to the various hostile factions in her own party, she’s in deep trouble. The problem for May is that her leadership style is isolated and authoritarian, not exactly the qualities required right now.

in this mad world Boris not negotiating Brexit makes perfect sense I no longer fear him.

For the second time today, Slowster is on the money.

But I wouldn’t discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren’t tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Jezza looks to have united a skeptical Labour Party and some of their big guns who’ve sat on the fence until now look to be negotiating for shadow cabinet posts.

But I wouldn’t discount a challenge from Raab or Hannan, rising stars who aren’t tainted with the baggage from 2016. Amber Rudd is a probable too, although her constituency majority is very vulnerable.

I’d say Rudd is damaged goods as well: She didn’t exactly come out of the campaign well, and it showed in her near defeat.

As fars as I can see: Corbyn is the only one who can unite the country, at the moment.

On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot’s motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen’s speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.

Do you think she cares at all about the NI peace deal? It seems at this point she is quite happy to be remembered as the shittest PM ever so long as she gets to feel powerful for a bit longer – or maybe her hubris is such that she simply doesn’t realise what everybody thinks of her (I see parallels with Facha).

On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot’s motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen’s speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.

@Aracer, your explanation is indeed the simplest and most logical. It’s also the most potentially dangerous of the UK. Listening to a tired, aged May make her speech outside No 10 this afternoon, her voice tinged with hysteria made me worry that our PM is quite unwell.

Is it just me but I can’t see that the Tory/DUP coalition is going to last?

Firstly it jeopardises the NI peace process, in the middle of a negotiation to rebuild powersharing in stormont
the Good Friday agreement is probably one of the greatest UK political achievements of my lifetime, wtf !

Secondly the DUP are about as toxic as it gets, re terrorism, evolution, creationism, abortion, gay rights… Ask Ruth Davidson

They’ve still got a tiny majority- 2 seats!, no consensus on Brexit among other things, several of her MPs were only elected on the tiniest of majorities, they will be very aware of what they are voting on and how it plays in their constituencies

We are now a joke, May launched into her GE, much to the annoyance of the EU, at the worst possible time, she looks weak and the mandate for her Brexit has evaporated,

So whens the next election?

she is no thatcher more Gordon Brown in that she is clearly just not equipped with the skills for the job. Neither had much charisma/ bon hommie either and both were shit with voters.

As always when in doubt I check the odds – can get almost 2/1 against another GE this year, reckon I might go for that, it seems implausible they can last 6 months.

The only quality I was suggesting she shared was hubris.

I don’t think a purely tory party with a 2 seat majority would be succesful let alone this, tbh. Tories love self-preservation but they also know about the tipping point where hanging on for an extra day hurts you for longer.

But at the same time they know the next election, however many weeks or months away, is probably going to be much worse for them. Scottish unionists on the left have woken up to a Tory government that they created by their obsession with the indy ref- it was so easily avoidable, literally a couple of seats, I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again. Labour is, well, not united but at least mostly going in the same direction, for the first time in a long time, and they have the momentum and the credibility. Nobody in May’s government is untainted.

(After seeing Dugdale and co celebrating, I almost missed that they increased their vote share by all of 2.7%.)

There’s no good next step for the tories and I don’t think they’ll be able to decide which is the least bad either.

Brown did lack charisma, but I think he was in politics for the right reasons and cared about society. Unlike May. Brown didn’t have the PR skills for modern politics, he was more suited to a previous era, perhaps a few decades earlier.

Agreed – I was no fan of Brown, but he had different (better) motivations to May.

indeed i think his heart was in the right place and his moral compass from his clergy parent helped his moral compass more than hers.

Another thing they share in common and both were controlling

Open Democracy has a pretty insightful run down on the history of the DUP. Complete with historical ties to that Bastian of race relations, Enoch Powell and campaign funding tied to Saudi intelligence.

But don’t worry because it will be “in the national interest to provide certainty and keep the country safe”

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/so-who-are-dup

surely of the tory MPs, there must be a significant number who are aghast at the deal with the DUP, Mays staggering Hubris, and the ramifications of NI instability and Brexit **** up.

push her out, install a leader with no brexit/corbyn slagging smears, and reach out for some quality bipartisan politics for the good of the country.

Stephen Fry?Verified account @stephenfry
Surprised to find that I feel almost sorry for her. Imagine having power, yet no shred of authority, dignity or respect. Faintly pathetic.

Murdoch is out to get her big time

http://news.sky.com/story/matter-of-time-before-theresa-mays-minority-government-crumbles-10910572

loving that he left the Times election party in a rage after seeing the exit poll

DrJ I did pick the winner just not the margin I (and all the commentators) thought

You did indeed – well done. Now – why don’t you tell us again that theory as to why the polls all under-predicted May’s performance?

well the message from rupert is pretty clear

On the contrary, it makes complete logical sense once you understand the Maybot’s motivations. The only thing which is important to her is her own political ambition, the only way to sustain her position as PM was to do a deal which would allow her to get a queen’s speech passed and the only possible deal which was going to enable that was one with the DUP.

Do you think she cares at all about the NI peace deal? It seems at this point she is quite happy to be remembered as the shittest PM ever so long as she gets to feel powerful for a bit longer – or maybe her hubris is such that she simply doesn’t realise what everybody thinks of her (I see parallels with Facha).

Lots of interesting insights into her character there – known her personally for a long time have you?

No 10 this afternoon, her voice tinged with hysteria made me worry that our PM is quite unwell.

This but I’m not sure what the options are.

So first she’s announced an alliance with the DUP, and then this weekend she’s entering into talks with them? Bodes well for Brexit with that negotiating nous.

Tweet from Robert Preston:

Senior Tory MP: “We all f***ing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally f***ed us”.

So first she’s announced an alliance with the DUP, and then this weekend she’s entering into talks with them? Bodes well for Brexit with that negotiating nous.

+many

Gives her advisers time to google their policies, I suppose. And hopefully work out the ramifications of screwing up the peace process in NI for short term Parliamentary gain.

his moral compass from his clergy parent helped his moral compass more than hers.

Wow! One of the STW uber-atheists showing that sometimes religion can be a positive thing! What next?

Trying to hard there fella – i thought we were all about rapprochement of late.

Turns to him the other cheek