Scotland Indyref 2

argee
Full Member
I tended to think that there was a good chance IndyRef2 could be a Yes with stuff i was reading and hearing, but when you go wider in the media, or through discussions it does seem that the pro-union side are ahead, it does feel a bit like last time, you have the definite votes on both sides, but that undecided middle is swaying towards No.

Quite different from last time, last time the started point was 25% pro-indy, there was alot of room for movement. to actually getting it up to 45% and keep it there over the last number of years is quite impressive, but it has probly settled into 2 45% blocked that’ll never be shift with potentially a 5-10% swing that could happen either way.

All really depends how the campign goes, but opinions are much more rooted now, so it’s quite a different vibe from 2014.

molgrips
Full Member
there are many in England now wishing they were Scottish if Scotland can have the opportunity to rejoin the EU.

And Wales. This isn’t Scotland vs England, it’s Scotland vs rUK, please try and remember that.

It isn’t Scotland v Anyone. It’s Scotland having a conversation with itself. Least that’s how it should be.

I don’t think rejoining the EU is really going to be viable for the UK, even if we had another vote and wanted it, we gave up all our benefits that we’d built over 40 years, the French would fight everything, same as the Spanish, Italians, etc and we’d end up with a poor deal, and pay through the nose for it.

Rejoining the EU as 3 or 4 separate nations might be easier politically. They can form a union later on.

The SNP pushing the reinsert Scotland back in to the matrix is a vote winning idea.

I’d say it’s more than that – it’s crucial.

In 2014 I was a no (actually I wasn’t anything as I lived in England at the time, but I’d have been a no if I had lived in the Scotland). Now, post the Brexit vote and 8 more years of tory leadership propped up entirely by English constituencies, I’m very much a yes. With bells on. It is clear to me that the collective opinion and priorities of the Scottish population is fundamentally at odds with the UK majority consensus. We are on diverging paths. BUT…..the pragmatic part of me might struggle to keep that opinion so vehement if the re-joining EU option was not very firmly part of the plan AND it looked like it would be welcomed by the EU. A Scotland independent of the rest of the UK but part of the EU trade body surely will be more stable and successful than a Scotland cast adrift of the EU though no fault of it’s own and then separated again by free choice.

Politically I would have thought Macron and the EU great and good would love to have Scotland re-enter as a further one in the eye to the English (and yes, I’m pretty sure it would be the English eyes they’d love to be poking, the Welsh and Norther Irish having their own narratives).

Using NI as a test drive for the concept, an independent Scotland that is part of the EU will not be without issue. Boarders and trade deals with the remainder of the UK and goods travelling overland through the UK to and from the rest of the EU would be a nause I’m sure. A Scotland that is part of the EU will by necessity speed up the time it takes for an independent Scotland to feel entirely sperate to the rest of the UK. I suppose this might not be to everybody’s liking, but it would be to mine.

A Scotland that is part of the EU will by necessity speed up time it takes for an independent Scotland to feel entirely sperate to the rest of the UK.

Passport control at the border will likely make it feel separate, from day #1.

Teuchters are highlanders, so called by lowlanders. Ergo if you’re from Ayr you’re no more a teuchter than Nelson Mandela.

And it’s clatty, like Patty’s! Never heard it said as clarty by anyone other than the English (which may as well include the Edinburgh lot).

The Brexit angle does not help the SNP. An indy Scotland joining the EU would shift trade barrier from affecting 19% of exports to affecting 60% of exports.

The paper repeatedly mentions that barriers to trade caused by Brexit will be economically damaging for the UK. Some of us may agree with that conclusion but, given the Scottish government’s argument for independence is predicated on re-joining the EU, the logical inconsistency here is obvious.

After decades of unfettered access to both the EU and the UK single markets, Scotland still exports more than three times as much to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, those barriers to trade would shift from affecting the 19 per cent of Scotland’s exports that go to the EU and instead impact the 60 per cent of exports that go to the rest of the UK.

The evidence of economic damage being caused by EU/UK trade friction is, like the actual fiscal data for Scotland within the UK, an argument against separation, not for it.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-need-to-talk-about-scotland

#WhyNotScotland ?
Admission here – the UK needs to freely EXPLOIT Scotlands abundant resources.. pic.twitter.com/XFCTVbcHz3

— David Hynds (@eRestUK) June 18, 2022

I’d rather read viz for political and monetary evaluation than suffer the free market ideology espoused by the spectator

squirrelking
Free Member
Teuchters are highlanders, so called by lowlanders. Ergo if you’re from Ayr you’re no more a teuchter than Nelson Mandela.

What areas are in Greater Glasgow?
Image result for greater glasgow map
The eight constituent authorities are:
Glasgow.
East Dunbartonshire.
West Dunbartonshire.
North Lanarkshire.
South Lanarkshire.
East Renfrewshire.
Renfrewshire.
Inverclyde.

Ayr is ootside the greater glasgow area, therefore, are chookters. 😆

The Brexit angle does not help the SNP. An indy Scotland joining the EU would shift trade barrier from affecting 19% of exports to affecting 60% of exports.

What is economically a good idea and what people will vote for are not necessarily the same.

the collective opinion and priorities of the Scottish population is fundamentally at odds with the UK majority consensus.

It is absolutely definitely NOT a consensus! There are at least two vehemently opposed groups, it just so happens one is slightly larger than the other. And due to the system that’s not always the one that’s in power.

Politically I would have thought Macron and the EU great and good would love to have Scotland re-enter as a further one in the eye to the English

All EU members would have to agree, including the Spanish who are trying hard to stop part of Spain breaking away. Thisnis important.

Ayr is ootside the greater glasgow area, therefore, are chookters. 😆

Ayr is not in the Highlands though.

It is absolutely definitely NOT a consensus! There are at least two vehemently opposed groups, it just so happens one is slightly larger than the other. And due to the system that’s not always the one that’s in power.

You have misunderstood. Completely.

I’m not talking about independence here. I’m talking about a collective opinion on taxation (we pay more than the rest of the UK and don’t seem to mind – can you see the UK wide population voting for that?), about an attitude to the welfare state. It’s the little things that demonstrate it too; like what we are prepared to pay for collectively rather than individually like prescriptions, university fees and eye tests. My perception is that collectively we have a different opinion on where we put the environment in our priorities. The Scottish voters have consistently collectively voted at national and local elections to prioritise these things in a way not manifested in a UK wide collective. I am Scottish by birth and early years (and now residence again) but lived in the rest of the UK (some North Wales, but mostly England) for the bulk of my days. Living in Scotland does not ‘feel’ the same. Not the geography – but the people. There is a cohesiveness, and a kindness I have not experienced elsewhere. Clearly this is a massive over simplification with anomalies both north and south of the border that counteract everything I’ve just typed, but I don’t have any issue with saying the collective opinion and priorities of the Scottish population is fundamentally at odds with the UK majority consensus.

I’d rather read viz for political and monetary evaluation than suffer the free market ideology espoused by the spectator

But you aren’t disputing the facts. Just because someone is politically left or right from you does not mean they are wrong on every issue.

For the indy supporters on here – given the Scottish Parliament already controls almost everything affecting everyday life – local govt, transport, ferries, police, fire, health, social work etc, what laws would an indy parliament pass to make life better that it can’t pass now?

And immigration. Given that the UK granted over a million visas for people to come to the UK what benefit would an indy immigration poicy have apart from possibly importing cheap labour? In fact could it be a negative as by far the largest group of “foreigners” in Scotland are the half million or so English. Would they be more or less likely to come here if it meant working in a foreign country?

FWIW teuchtars is a Scots word for Gaelic speaking highlanders.

All EU members would have to agree, including the Spanish who are trying hard to stop part of Spain breaking away. Thisnis important.

It’s not, it’s irrelevant – did Spain object to the EU membership of other new states with the break-up of Yugoslavia?

The biggest economic difference is that tax revenues raised in Scotland, stay in Scotland and that the Government would have the ability to attract outside investment rather than rely on handouts from Westminster. The government would also be attract investment into things like renewables and tidal power by issuing bonds, rather than relying on the ‘benevolence’ of Westminster, their free-market ideology and complete lack of a long-term strategy.

Many rural areas in Scotland would welcome immigration in areas like social care and hospitality now that the willing supply from the EU is no longer accessible. Many people would love to be able to live and work here, jobs are easier to find than accommodation. Many businesses have reduced hours and therefore revenues due to staff shortages. There are a significant number of incomers here on the Isle of Mull, many who have established some of the most successful businesses who are also advocates of Indy.

An Indy government would also have the capacity to create legislation more suited to our needs eg. second homes are a major issue as many workers simply can’t find affordable accommodation

There is a cohesiveness, and a kindness I have not experienced elsewhere. Clearly this is a massive over simplification with anomalies both north and south of the border that counteract everything I’ve just typed, but I don’t have any issue with saying the collective opinion and priorities of the Scottish population is fundamentally at odds with the UK majority consensus.

This is not my experience. I know a number of Scottish people who proclaim this, but I feel the evidence is weak to non-existent.

I’m not talking about independence here. I’m talking about a collective opinion on taxation

You misunderstand. I wasn’t talking about independence either. My point is that what goes on down here is in no way a consensus. The UK is not governed like that.

I find it incredible and unsettling that you are suggesting that it is. Because it can be used to spread division where there is none. The people in Scotland who support higher taxation and better public services have many millions of allies in rUK. There are certainly more of them down here, in fact. You are alienating the people of Cumbria from those of Dumfries and Galloway because some gammons in Surrey voted Tory.

By all means discuss independence but don’t you dare group me in with those red faced spluttering Mail reading ****.

I wasn’t talking about independence either. My point is that what goes on down here is in no way a consensus.

sorry for misunderstanding.

I find it incredible and unsettling that you are suggesting that it is. Because it can be used to spread division where there is none. The people in Scotland who support higher taxation and better public services have many millions of allies in rUK. There are certainly more of them down here, in fact. You are alienating the people of Cumbria from those of Dumfries and Galloway because some gammons in Surrey voted Tory.

By all means discuss independence but don’t you dare group me in with those red faced spluttering Mail reading ****.

Until a couple of years ago I ‘lived amongst them’ too. Deep in the true blue, me first, leafy brexit loving money orientated Hampshire. I know not everyone living in the rest of the UK is one of ‘them’. I wasn’t. But the fact still remains that an accumulation of a way of thinking moulds the mood of an area. That area could be a street, a town, a county or a nation – obviously the bigger the area, the more disparate the thinking and feel will be. I appreciate this. Amongst many reasons for my move back to Scotland was to escape from tory centric pro-brexit pro-deportation nastiness of some many of those in my geographical immediacy.

Yes, I’m not naïve enough to think that the whole of the rUK think the same way. Those in Scotland don’t either, but enough think in ways I perceive to be be positive that the collective ‘feel’ is (imo) different.

You would be absolutely right to castigate people like me now for independence when we could/should stay and campaign for change. But I’ve read the runes – the UK is going one way regardless and will drag Scotland with it due to it’s relatively insignificant pollution numbers in comparison to SE England. Scotland has such a strong national identity and a history of separate governance (both recent and ancient) that ‘escape’ from London rule is a realistic possibility. Sorry that you might not have the same realistic option (and others parts of the UK too) but can you really blame people like me for wanting something that might be possible just because you can’t do the same?

Just for clarity – I can confirm that I am not and never have been Nelson Mandela.

gauss1777
Free Member
There is a cohesiveness, and a kindness I have not experienced elsewhere. Clearly this is a massive over simplification with anomalies both north and south of the border that counteract everything I’ve just typed, but I don’t have any issue with saying the collective opinion and priorities of the Scottish population is fundamentally at odds with the UK majority consensus.

This is not my experience. I know a number of Scottish people who proclaim this, but I feel the evidence is weak to non-existent.

Yeah, having been born and raised in Scotland there are good areas, and not so good areas, it’s pretty much like the rest of the UK in reality with that type of thing having spent 25 years in Scotland and 20 in England in my life.

Any way, i think the indy vote is something that is in its infancy, it needs a lot of questions and answers before it starts to be an understandable vote, of course there’s a lot already who are definite Yes or No’s, but that’s against the normal demographics we saw last time as well.

Until a couple of years ago I ‘lived amongst them’ too. Deep in the true blue, me first, leafy brexit loving money orientated Hampshire.

I don’t live amongst “them” either. Nor am I one of them. So this line of reasoning seems incredibly obnoxious.

But the fact still remains that an accumulation of a way of thinking moulds the mood of an area.

No, you choose your circle from the people around you according to shared beliefs. It’s not purely geographical. There are many different social strata in any given region. Especially these days with so much going on on social media.

As an example, the regional Brexit vote share only goes roughly between 60/40 and 40/60.

local govt, transport, ferries, police, fire, health, social work etc, what laws would an indy parliament pass to make life better that it can’t pass now?

As an example, how about nationalising the rail network?

Isn’t ScotRail already government owned?

Scotrail are an operator they’re not responsible for the network.

Network rail already state owned as well?

Yeah but not under control of ScotGov, which was why I gave it as an example under “transport”.

Isn’t ScotRail already government owned?

Umm. The company running the franchise is. Scotrail itself is and always has been goverment owned. Meanwhile the back of house stuff (accounting, procurement etc.) are still run by Abellio. Confused? My wife worked for them and even she couldn’t figure out the tangled web of who did what except to say that it resulted in a lack of accountability that won’t be fixed by a new name on the side of the trains. TBH Abellio won a watch ‘losing’ the franchise, they get to carry on as they were without being the public punching bag for Scotrail’s ineptitude (they are all seperate companies).

Ayr is ootside the greater glasgow area, therefore, are chookters. 😆

Questions of teuchtarship aside, nobody from Ayr says clarty unless they’re Doonfoot aspirants. Or the rest of Ayrshire for that matter.

nobody from Ayr says clarty unless they’re Doonfoot aspirants

I might no be Nelson Mandela, but I am an Honest Man, born and bred. I’m from Forehill no Doonfoot and I say clarty.

Yeah but not under control of ScotGov,

ScotGov funds it so I think we might be splitting hairs here.

I don’t live amongst “them” either. Nor am I one of them. So this line of reasoning seems incredibly obnoxious.

but yet its ok to call them “red faced spluttering Mail reading ****”

You really are a curious little oddity.

ScotGov funds it so I think we might be splitting hairs here.

Network Rail is an arms-length body under the control of the UK Department of Transport.

As far as calling folk teuchters if we go the other way I like to imagine that on a map if you draw a line west of Stirling and another south that anyone trapped in that corner is a weegie 🙂

Molgrips

I dont know how to explian this better but there is a realsense that Scotland is prevented from taking the political direction we would like by being in the union.

While there is huge overlap the political centre in Scotland is different to that in england

Two things show this. Brexiit vote and tory vote.

We cannot have a fair tax system or a fair immigration policy

It’s not, it’s irrelevant – did Spain object to the EU membership of other new states with the break-up of Yugoslavia?

The break up of Yugoslavia involved numerous wars and most of former Yugoslavia isnt in the EU.

I dont see how thats a good indicator for how the EU/Spain would deal with an Indy Scotland.

FWIW, i think theyd (the EU as a whole) be broadly favorable of Scotland.

The EU question is just an unknown, how long it would take to join, what Scotland would need to do prior to this to become a candidate/member, what impact this would have on Scotland/England, etc, etc.

It’s also another unknown as to what state the EU will be in 5-10 years, or what mainland Europe will be like, the only certainty just now is that there is only uncertainty ahead regarding the EU and mainland Europe with all that’s going on just now.

It’s not EU membership or nothing either.

The EU previously said that they wouldn’t interfere in the internal politics of a member state and so gave no outward indication in 2014. That could change for 2023.

Growing up in a town in Aberdeenshire I recall Teuchter being used in my school (in the early ’90s I guess) as a catch-all term for rural folks in the area. While I can see how that connects to its original meaning it does seem to have experienced some linguistic drift/evolution.

I’m not sure I’ve heard clatty before seeing it in this thread, but I’m familiar with clarty.

t I am an Honest Man, born and bred. I’m from Forehill

One of these statements are false. 🤔😉

As I said before, I’ve never heard anyone in Ayrshire say clarty. Not even my phone recognises it as a word! Though in some cases they would be more likely to just use ‘black’.

Growing up in a town in Aberdeenshire

I’m not sure I’ve heard clatty before seeing it in this thread, but I’m familiar with clarty.

Weird. Got mates from Kemnay and Oldmeldrum that say clatty.

This is getting worse than the cheese roasters.

the only certainty just now is that there is only uncertainty ahead regarding the UK, the EU and mainland Europe with all that’s going on just now

Slight amendment.

It’s not EU membership or nothing either.

This needs to be said again and again. An independent Scotland has lots of ways to get involved with the rest of Europe that the UK seems determined to avoid for “reasons”. It doesn’t have to join the EU, it just needs to not set itself against the rest of Europe.