Scotland Indyref 2

Wales is working on proposals for a new devolution settlement – Welsh Labout policy is to look towards this. Having the second largest country in the Union leave it pulls the rug out from under that in a major way, making England an even bigger dominant part (unless it decides to break into constitutional bits, which does not appear likely). By contrast, if Scotland were to push for devo max, that would assist the project. The pressure from the other devolved nations is likely to be for that, so as not to be left even more exposed themselves.

Would Spain risk encouraging Catalonian independence?

Post brexit it is a non issue. Its clear Scotland would be welcomed back and there are no insurmountable issues

Wales is working on proposals for a new devolution settlement – Welsh Labout policy is to look towards this.

Scottish labour need a coherent position on the constitution. At the moment its ” the precious union” and “SNP” baaaaaaaaad

rUK doesn’t look like it’ll want to re-adopt a position close to the EU.

As I said, that position is down to voters south of the border, and the people we elect.

So it’s not an “English” decision to have an open border.

It is entirely an “English” decision to be outside shared arrangements that are adopted across Europe (not just within the EU), and which an independent Scotland is likely to be a party to (if it happens) whether it is an EU member or not.

Post brexit it is a non issue. Its clear Scotland would be welcomed back and there are no insurmountable issues

The Spanish diplomat who suggested that was immediately sacked. The issues might not be completely insurmountable but they are major. The finances including currency and deficit, and a land border with a country outside of the EU who the EU don’t trust to even follow the rules it agrees to.

Scottish Labour are too busy recruiting from the bowler-hatted, sash-wearing brigade to appear to be more ‘inclusive’ to be worrying about trivial things like independence.

Re-joining the EU sadly isn’t realistic for either the UK or an independent Scotland. The good deal we had is gone and it’ll be hard to sell an obviously worse one.

“Obviously worse” being subjective.

Obviously worse than what we had before? Yes.

Obviously worse than what we have now? Not really.

In the current climate i wouldn’t be pushing rejoining the EU as being one of the keynote things, there are so many moving parts to that question with recent events. It’s definitely part of the plan to request membership, but it wouldn’t be plan A at this time, which the SNP know pretty well anyway.

It’s been weird the amount of negativity i’ve heard over the last month or so regarding independence, yes you always get the loyalist/true blues talking who are No all day long, but i do hear a lot of grumblings from those who could be Yes due to the Scottish Government just now, it is weird, the more time the SNP have in a position of strength with the Greens the more it can affect the Indy vote.

In the current climate i wouldn’t be pushing rejoining the EU as being one of the keynote things, there are so many moving parts to that question with recent events. It’s definitely part of the plan to request membership, but it wouldn’t be plan A at this time, which the SNP know pretty well anyway.

Given the outcomes of the 2014 and 2016 referenda, I’d imagine rejoining the EU to be a strongly desired goal of many indy-curious Scots. I’d far rather that the Scottish Government had some degree of reassurance from the EU regarding membership criteria and how to realistically achieve same before the electorate is asked to leave our current union. Akin to having an EU shaped life raft nearby before leaping off the sinking UK.

I would support independence for Scotland in any circumstances. Even if I have to sook it through a clarty straw. Howver in the situation you describe @downshep would’nt it be a good idea to get off the sinking ship even if the life raft is’nt particularly nearby.

It is entirely an “English” decision to be outside shared arrangements that are adopted across Europe (not just within the EU), and which an independent Scotland is likely to be a party to (if it happens) whether it is an EU member or not.

Yes, but can you see that happening in the short to medium term? The problem is fundamentally that the UK is trying to trade with other markets and the EU won’t accept frictionless trade with countries that won’t align themselves with it. Neither is going to change it’s stance and no party is going to call for a Brentry(?) referendum for decades, no one wins and it would probably tank the economy/GBP again in the short term with more uncertainty, and that’s if the EU decides it even want’s to risk having a UK that keeps flip-flopping in and out.

It’s going to take some global event like the next financial crisis in another 20 years and then if the UK looks worse than the EU after that then maybe people will have an appetite to join it again. But this far out that’s a coin toss. As it is, all Boris has to do is point at vaccines and blame EU bureaucracy for why we got them so far ahead of everyone else and he’ll get his 52% again.

But then I’m just a pessimistic remoaner who’d quite like to be proved wrong and have some economic good news for the country for once.

Telegraph: After relaunching her case for Scottish independence this week – with speeches, a 72-page economic dossier and the promise of a referendum next year – Nicola Sturgeon had a quick something to add. She did not, she said, intend to dwell on the hard border she plans to erect with England. She’d deal with the “implications of Brexit” another day.

It’s easy to see why she’s not keen to discuss it. Most of Scotland’s imports and exports cross over the border with England, so what impact would it have subjecting all of them to checks, tariffs and customs controls? The SNP often talks about the harm inflicted by Brexit, but Scotland’s trade with England vastly outweighs its dealings with Europe. So “Scexit”, as some Unionists have taken to calling it, would be “Brexit times 10”.

This phrase is from one of Sturgeon’s own economic advisers – and he makes an important point. Brexit has transformed the equation. Not even the most fervent nationalist can now deny that separation would impose massive and permanent economic disruption, a cost far greater than had both countries been EU members. An independent Scotland would need to somehow put itself on a path of fast economic growth. How to do this if it chooses EU membership and massive trade friction with England?

It’s not that Scotland can’t be independent: it’s a rich, ingenious and confident country that could stand proudly on the world stage. Voters certainly are willing to pay a price for greater sovereignty, as Brexit demonstrated. But the price of separation, now, would be sado-austerity on a scale few countries have ever attempted.

Sturgeon leads a 120,000-strong brigade of party members (parts of my family included) anxious for another referendum. They need to believe that the great battle is just around the corner, that their date with destiny awaits. That’s why she has set aside £20 million for a referendum next year. But under devolution rules, the UK Government needs to agree, and it won’t. So her main hope is to sue, persuading the Supreme Court to back a referendum billed as being “advisory” – and, ergo, not a referendum. It’s a rather long shot.

But let’s say she is granted her referendum: what then? She can talk (as she has done this week) about successful small countries. But none of them has Scotland’s economics. Sturgeon’s own officials calculate that state spending amounted to 61 per cent of GDP last year – making it one of the biggest governments, if not the biggest, in the world in relation to the size of the country. And, yes, the pandemic distorts things. But even beforehand, Scots were enjoying Swedish-style public spending while paying normal British levels of tax thanks to the regular Union dividend.

Let’s say an independent Scotland is accepted as an EU member. And let’s put aside some other pretty serious questions, like who pays the pensions and in which currency. Under the Maastricht rules, it would need to get the deficit down to 3 per cent of GDP (from 22 per cent last year). This would be possible, but devastating. The cuts required would be bigger than the post-crash austerity visited upon Greece, Ireland or Iceland. An independent Scotland could close every school, free every prisoner, disband the police force and still not come close to balancing its books.

When I was political editor of The Scotsman, I’d argue for Scotland to be given financial independence alongside devolution. There would, I’d argue, be an incentive to cut tax and grow the economy – far better than begging London for money and complaining when it wasn’t enough. But over time, it became clear what “fiscal autonomy” would mean: the kind of shock therapy that no country should be made to live through.

Had Scotland been brilliantly run under 15 years of SNP rule, Sturgeon may have a claim to be given complete control. But we’ve seen indefensible decay in schools with a widening attainment gap between rich and poor (closing this was supposed to be the “defining mission” of her government). Drug deaths have surged to the highest in Europe. I backed devolution on the ground that it would address such problems. Instead, it opened a debate about independence that went on to overshadow all else. Tory sleaze was eclipsed by SNP sleaze.

In which country, anywhere in the Western world, has the head of government been accused by a predecessor of conspiring to have him imprisoned by framing him so as to remove him as a political threat? Alex Salmond’s full case against Sturgeon is still unpublishable, owing to censorship edicts issued by Edinburgh courts. He was acquitted of attempted rape but what he did admit to in his time as First Minister makes Boris Johnson’s birthday cake session look like a nun’s tea party. A striking proportion of the SNP’s MPs have faced charges of embezzlement, anti-Semitism, sexual harassment and more.

Five minutes into Sturgeon’s speech this week, we had yet another one: Patrick Grady, the party’s chief whip, was suspended for inappropriate behaviour with a staffer. There are many good, even outstanding SNP politicians – including Sturgeon herself. I’d rank Kate Forbes, her 32-year-old finance minister, as one of the most impressive politicians in Britain. But as a team, they are beatable. Especially if their strategy is to run away from the main arguments and fall back upon “small is better” platitudes.

So the referendum demand is a bluff, an act of political theatre. Sturgeon had told friends after the last referendum that it would be political suicide to call another one until separation was backed by 60 per cent of voters. But that point never came. Even now, there’s a (slim) majority for the Union – and that’s after Brexit, an inflation crisis, a not-wildly-popular Etonian in No 10 and the partygate debacle. Polls show barely a third of Scots welcome her new timetable.

So Sturgeon is threatening a vote that most Scots don’t want with a case she can’t win and questions she can’t answer. But her job, now, is to brazen it out, to suspend disbelief. To keep her troops hopeful by demanding a new referendum. And to hope, perhaps above all else, that the Tories don’t say “yes”.

gordimhor
Full Member
I would support independence for Scotland in any circumstances. Even if I have to sook it through a clarty straw

Do chookters really say clarty when they mean clatty? 😆

Sorry, just need to bring the thread around to some important business here!

I’m not a teuchter, but the only place I’ve heard clatty is in Glasgow. Clarty everywhere else.

Clatty? What’s that then? We used clarty in Edinburgh (mostly when talking about Glasgow).

Rockape63 Free Member
Telegraph

The Telegraph appears to be more obsessed with independence than The National. It certainly seems to work for them too, the framing of the Tory party as the one true defenders of the union has apparently helped them a lot north of the border after their late ’90s/early 2000s doldrums.

The “Voters certainly are willing to pay a price for greater sovereignty, as Brexit demonstrated” line is interesting, I wonder how many Brexit voters put a cross next to “Leave” expecting such a price and how many had believed the £350 million a week type stuff? That’s a question for a different thread though.

Futureboy77
Free Member
I’m not a teuchter, but the only place I’ve heard clatty is in Glasgow. Clarty everywhere else.

scotroutes
Full Member
Clatty? What’s that then? We used clarty in Edinburgh (mostly when talking about Glasgow).

Mad chookters, gonny have to sort this out come independence. 😆

The problem is fundamentally that the UK is trying to trade with other markets

When it catches up with Germany, then we can put less emphasis on “trying”. Cutting of ties with its neighbours helps the UK trade further afield not one jot. Scotland can join in with pan-Europe trade arrangements without suffering any loss of access to any country beyond Europe. NI is currently bucking the trend in the UK and increasing it’s trade with the RoW, and the EU, and other European countries. Scotland is being left behind.

When I was political editor of The Scotsman

I didn’t realise you had so much experience! Oh, it’s just a cut and paste. Probably better to quote a snippet, provide a link, and add your own thoughts on what the article says… otherwise Singletrack will just have to pull your post if the writer or publisher of the article complain.

I have to admit I looked this up, Ive always used teuchter but it looks like google says chookter is also OK but a misspelling, that being said im in a glass house so i wont throw stones 🙂

Proud to be a teuchter and yes I’d go with clarty!

@Kelvin

I didn’t realise you had so much experience! Oh, it’s just a cut and paste.

The clue was …

Telegraph:

Thought some might find it interesting to hear some views from outside of the echo chamber.

Never mind eh?

The Telegraph IS an echo chamber

daviek
Full Member

Proud to be a teuchter and yes I’d go with clarty!

I’m noting down names here for the revolution to come! 😆

See the whole EU thing, it’s not an independence question. It’s a post independence discussion we should be having.

It’s not something the argument should be based on at all. It’s a decision for us to make after the fact, not before.

Clarty?

No. Clatty as in Clatty Pat’s.

I can categorically say that we won’t become independent of England.

.

Mind you, I also said brexit would never happen and there was no way Putin would invade.

I think I’ll look my Kilt out.

seosamh77
Full Member
See the whole EU thing, it’s not an independence question. It’s a post independence discussion we should be having.

It’s not something the argument should be based on at all. It’s a decision for us to make after the fact, not before.

TBH, I actually think if Sturgeon makes it a key issue in any campaign, she’ll probably lose. It’s a easy card to play against tbh.

No doubt the Unionist side will have it first and foremost in their agenda.

The clue was …

You posted as though you were saying it, was this on purpose?

Sorry Seòsamh I’m no a teuchter but I’d be happy to be considered one. I wis brought up in Ayr and we ayewis said clarty.

So her main hope is to sue, persuading the Supreme Court to back a referendum billed as being “advisory” – and, ergo, not a referendum. It’s a rather long shot.

It’s interesting to see the Torygraph using these words considering their support for Brexit and how that absolutely advisory referendum (the same status of every referendum we’ve ever had) had to be implemented.

Difference with previous referendums was the parliament had agreed they would be implemented.

The Scottish Parliament has no power to implement the result of an indyref without a section 30 order.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldscotland.com%2Fpolitics%2F20177665.adam-tomkins-legal-strategy-scottish-ministers-will-use-fight-supreme-court-indyref2-battle%2F

I think the key point here is for the SNP to be open about the costs and time involved, talking about the EU is good, but if the other side can clearly point to the reality of applying, being a candidate, getting everything in line and then being a member taking say 5-10 years and a lot of financial rearrangements, then it becomes a negative to voters, same with how they would manage any borders in the current UK, how they would work with landownership/land management of certain areas in Scotland and so on.

I tended to think that there was a good chance IndyRef2 could be a Yes with stuff i was reading and hearing, but when you go wider in the media, or through discussions it does seem that the pro-union side are ahead, it does feel a bit like last time, you have the definite votes on both sides, but that undecided middle is swaying towards No.

Yeah I’d imagine that Brexit has illustrated how hard these things can be and that would probably be a good angle for the No side to run with.

I suspect the “look how bad Brexit has been” argument might be run by both sides, but if the Tories are part of it then they’d have to say Brexit is bad, and the No campaigners would have to run an argument that said Brexit is bad, Scotland should stick with Brexit.

I’m not convinced the Brexit argument is positive either way.

I’d like some proper answers and facts on the important items like trade, currency, pensions etc etc so unlike the Brexit shambles we actually know what we are signing up for.

I’d like some proper answers and facts on the important items like trade, currency, pensions etc etc so unlike the Brexit shambles we actually know what we are signing up for.

Yeah, it needs to be open and honest about what the effects will be, i can’t see a scenario where independence doesn’t cost Scottish companies and taxpayers over the first few years, i think Brexit has shown that in bucket fulls!

It’s weird, but i think Brexit is helping the No campaign, with current stuff like the Irish border, i don’t even think that was a real issue talked about last time.

Anyway, there’s lots to do before hitting the referendum button for the SNP (and Scottish Government), i also don’t think Salmond hovering around will help them!

Given how brexit has turned out, and in my humble opinion is only going to get worse. The SNP pushing the reinsert Scotland back in to the matrix is a vote winning idea. In fact I would think there are many in England now wishing they were Scottish if Scotland can have the opportunity to rejoin the EU.

Would things be difficult, at least to start with in an independent Scotland. Of course they would. But I’m more than sure we would face these challenges and overcome them.

I wonder though how the whole ‘oil’ thing would pan out. The UK as a whole receives something like 45% of all its oil and gas needs from the north sea fields. Given the problems due to the Russian/Ukrainian war and the shortages that has caused, what then would the rest of the UK, England in particular do to ensure their supplies are uninterrupted or not lost.

IMO the pensions thing is a complete red herring dreamt up by unionists as another fear tactic. In the UK, state pensions are paid from taxation, there is no sovereign wealth fund that needs to be divvied-up. Provided the Scottish exchequer can raise enough taxation to cover the liabilities then what’s the problem? For private pensions, it’s even less of an issue – similar arrangements are made when companies merge or de-merge, or when Government roles are privatised – there existing legal frameworks to manage this.
The thing is, for many Scots when you look at the direction the UK is heading through the lens of Brexit, there is no upside – more austerity, rising prices and depletion of public services – it’s only boomers who benefitted from the significant post-war boom that still hold the union in esteem – for the majority of the rest it’s been pretty rubbish.
Many businesses and communities in more rural areas would welcome immigration as there are shortages in many sectors which is hampering sustainability, never mind growth. With the right type of investment in infrastructure, renewables and housing there is plenty of scope for improvement.

Yeah I’d imagine that Brexit has illustrated how hard these things can be and that would probably be a good angle for the No side to run with.

Problem is the No side are the government and their house of cards is built on pretending that brexit is wonderful

there are many in England now wishing they were Scottish if Scotland can have the opportunity to rejoin the EU.

And Wales. This isn’t Scotland vs England, it’s Scotland vs rUK, please try and remember that.

And Wales. This isn’t Scotland vs England, it’s Scotland vs rUK, please try and remember that.

So and Wales and N. Ireland then ?

I doubt there are many constituent parts of the UK with a stronger desire to rejoin the EU than N.I