Scotland Indyref 2

Don’t worry. Indyref 2 won’t be happening next year. The power to call it isn’t devolved. Despite the dozens of times we have been told it’s just round the corner.

As it stands, Scotland is just being told to shut up and put up with whatever we back south of the border.

To be fair, so is everyone else.

The power to call it isn’t devolved.

There we go… shut up and put up with what the English vote for. Every single MSP could back a referendum on independence, and be elected on that mandate, and still the UK government would just say “What mandate?! You don’t have a mandate down here”.

To be fair, so is everyone else.

Not everyone. A majority* of voters in England keep backing the path we’re on.

*or very nearly… 2016 GE… 47.2% voted Conservative… 2% BP.

I think the timing is great. Thinking there are bigger issues to sort out is a red herring to divert attention, no big issues will be sorted by the current crop of Tories.

As a country we are being lied to on a daily basis by a government that cannot see beyond tomorrow. Indy shines a spotlight on the inadequacies of the government and that in itself is good.

I was born in Scotland but live in Cumbria, when my daughter completes school I will be looking to move north and would welcome an independent Scotland.

As a country we are being lied to on a daily basis by a government that cannot see beyond tomorrow. Indy shines a spotlight on the inadequacies of the government and that in itself is good.

This is a good point

Yeh, I’ll park this in “believe it when i see it”

E.g. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/nicola-sturgeon-fires-starting-gun-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum

Could just be about internal Pro Indy politics rather about actually making it happen.

*or very nearly… 2016 GE… 47.2% voted Conservative… 2% BP.

That should have been 2019 by the way…

2015 GE… 40.9% Conservative… 14.1% UKIP.

Just a question – what happens when regions in Scotland face the same problem with an independent Scotland that Scotland does WRT to the UK? The vast majority of Scotland’s population is clustered around Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen – will this not also result in feelings of under-representation in the Borders, Islands and Highlands? When do we stop sub-dividing?

will this not also result in feelings of under-representation in the Borders, Islands and Highlands? When do we stop sub-dividing?

It already does, certainly for those in the north isles and probably many other non central belt areas.

Bojo’s actions have been the biggest aid towards more people wanting to vote for independence. I voted no last time, I’m not saying I’d necessarily vote yes at the next opportunity, but the last few years has given me more pause for thought.

A majority* of voters in England

But not when you look at parts of the UK.

Sturgeon has to get a vote in some form soon or the internal pressures in the party will split it and she will be out on her ear.

16 year olds get to vote in this one,

as they did in the last one as do EU citizens. I suspect the EU citizen vote might be a critical one and one where there is a lot of switching sides.

Absolutely. And if voters in England hadn’t voted the way that they had over the last decade then independence would be on the back burner, and pressure would be on the UK government to sort out those bigger issues. As it stands, Scotland is just being told to shut up and put up with whatever we back south of the border.

Yep, and I’m a YES.

It is the fault of us down here, sorry. The only hope I can see is a change of UK government that works with the Scottish government on a referendum that includes a change to a federal system for the UK nations, along side independence as options.

Ultimately, we’ve had a series of UK wide votes where voters in most of the English regions have given little to no consideration to how their vote effects other nations and regions within the UK. If things continue that way, it will push people away from the union unless it faces serious reforms.

More carrots from Sturgeon

Despite the dozens of times we have been told it’s just round the corner.

Given the utter mess that Brexit* made politically to the parties in the years after the vote, i can’t imagine anyone sane would want to launch into an Indy vote. The SNP making strident calls for independence while being in the very convenient position to be able to manage precisely NIL to achieve it seems like the way forward for them.

*I’m not saying the SNP would make as much a hash as the Tories, anyone with half a brain can avoid the more obvious elephant traps, but be careful what you wish for seems to be good advice here. The SNP itself is loose and somewhat argumentative conglomerate of right and left wing held together by the one cause, what happens to the party if independence comes along and it ceases to be united under that banner?

Then people vote for whatever parties form in the new, democratic iScotland. As it will have PR, every party will have some influence in shaping the future.

Eventually we get a realignment of all parties in scotland but the SNP would split for sure

The fundamentalist parts of the SNP and the wider movement are impatient and further losing patience. Sturgeon will not be able to hold them together if she doesn’t organise a vote in the next 18 months. Cards are being played close to the chest but she and the rest of the leadership must have some pathway in mind if Westminster plays hardball.

As for a federal solution? It would be my preferred solution but I think its too late. Brexit scuppered that.

Yep, Perhaps timely to remind people that many who currently vote SNP actually hold their noses while doing so as they see it only as a means to a common end; iScotland. If/once achieved, the glue will unstick to some degree and they may well struggle to maintain their current dominance of Scottish politics.

Great, more Customs bollox to deal with at work then, well, if they’re able to join the EU that is. Or will there be a Scottish Protocol ?

Got to love all this Nationalism stuff.

Bring it on. 100% yes for me. It’s time.

Why am I yes, In no particular order and not exhaustive, The Rwanda decision, Brexit, the potential breaking of the NI protocol. Johnson, what actually is there to sway a remain vote?

Perhaps timely to remind people that many who currently vote SNP actually hold their noses while doing so as they see it only as a means to a common end; iScotland. If/once achieved, the glue will unstick to some degree and they may well struggle to maintain their current dominance of Scottish politics.

Eventually we get a realignment of all parties in scotland but the SNP would split for sure

Which is exactly why Sturgeon has to keep stringing the donkeys along. Keep the grievance high and progress low.

Great, more Customs bollox to deal with at work then

Yeah this could be a real problem. Even without EU membership iS would be dependent on a suitable trade deal with rUK and this could be a huge source of friction.

what actually is there to sway a remain vote?

That the practicalities of day to day life are much easier if you are part of a large bloc with free movement of goods and services. It’d be completely different if iS were guaranteed a place in the EU, but it’s not.

If the independence vote happens, and the vote goes against staying in the UK… two of the current home nations will be within, or operate as near as damn it as if they are in, the customs union and the single market that encompass most of Europe… neither will need to be EU members, or part of an EU member, to get that… just the willingness to join in. The question will be all about England and Wales making practical steps to keep dealing with them and the rest of Europe in a sensible cooperative fashion… that’s not up to the people of Scotland, the voters of Scotland, or the politicians of Scotland… it’s down to us South of the border to decide to join in, rather than turn away.

A trade deal with rUK might only be a problem if Scotland was part of the EU. rUK has shown little interest in creating any incoming trade barriers

EDIT: Kelvin makes a good point about a customs union with the EU. Either way the UK would be inclined to bend

Either way the UK would be inclined to bend

Obviously, it absolutely would not if we were in that situation right now… but it’ll be years away… and, sadly, some lessons might be learnt the hard way in the UK over the next few years… and our political landscape might have shifted a bit. It’s not a huge jump towards the Brexit that the Brexit campaigners were pushing hard just 7 years ago… when Norway and Switzerland, with their close trading relationships and more arms length political situations, were held up as ideals rather than scare stories. Adding into that a Customs Unions style arrangement just requires counting… how much do our independent trade deals around the world bring us compared to the deals we’d have with a shared external border with Ireland, Scotland, Monaco, the UK Sovereign Bases on Cyprus, all the rest of Cyprus, France, Germany… [fill in the list yourselves]

the customs union and the single market that encompass most of Europe… neither will need to be EU members, or part of an EU member, to get that… just the willingness to join in

Good point, yes.

Why am I yes, In no particular order and not exhaustive, The Rwanda decision, Brexit, the potential breaking of the NI protocol. Johnson, what actually is there to sway a remain vote?

General dislike of everything the government does at the moment aside, Brexit’s surely been a bit of a gamechanger, but only at a very superficial level surely?

Yes it could be a pathway to locally reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU/EEA.

But surely after those negotiations no ones going to fall for “that’s just project fear” again? Last time the UK government was bending over backwards to appear reasonable during the independence referendum, beyond the occasional reality checking response (e.g. no, you can’t credibly keep using the pound unilaterally unless you want to be subject to the whims of rUK monetary policies). If Scotland voted leave then surely that changes and Westminster switches to looking after rUK’s interests and whatever Sturgeon puts in her White Papers this week will be no more credible than Davis/Gove/Johnsons fantasies of a good deal pre-Brexit?

Also a fairly big deal was made over military spending/Trident last time. I remember pointing out in the thread last time that someone has to send the fast jets out to intercept Russians over the North sea and was told I was being daft and war’s had moved on etc etc. That’s changed a bit! So iSoctland is still going to have to meet it’s NATO targets however it choses it spend it.

that’s not up to the people of Scotland, the voters of Scotland, or the politicians of Scotland… it’s down to us South of the border to decide to join in, rather than turn away.

Fine in theory, but then it becomes Scotlands problem to check all goods at the border as they become an EU border.

There’s nothing to stop a UK manufacturer making products that meet the EU and rUK requirements (unless they somehow diverge in a way that makes meeting them exclusive). But there’d be no requirement, which is the difficult part. That’s the issue with NI, I doubt little if anything going back and forth from Holly Head fails to meet the pre Brexit EU requirements, but its the fact it’s not necessarily required to that causes all the problems.

At this point I don’t really care over the result anymore, I despise the current government, and I’m not Scottish. I’m not convinced that like Brexit that everyone won’t be worse off after a leave result, but the world won’t end.

what actually is there to sway a remain vote?

That you don’t fix a rudderless ship by using the wood to fix it to form a liferaft, hoping that what broke it in the first place doesn’t kill you next. You replace the bloody rudder.

Last time the UK government was bending over backwards to appear reasonable

How likely does “devo max” look now? I think many “NO” voters from last time will be far more sceptical of anything said by the UK government next time.

Fine in theory, but then it becomes Scotlands problem to check all goods at the border as they become an EU border.

Yup, they’ll be in a bigger market, we’ll be an even smaller market, and supply chains and sales channels will be turned upside down and reshaped. It’ll be a right mess. If that’s what we choose down here. That’s our choice to make though. We can be as difficult for Scotland as we have chosen to be with all the other countries of Europe. That’ll be our choice. But it’s years away. We might have learnt a few things by then, you never know.

I also think it’s in the SNP’s interests to have the vote before Johnson gets replaced with someone potentially much more competent, sensible and reasonable; likely from a different party.

How likely does “devo max” look now?

Who knows? Maybe that’ll be the result this time 🤷‍♂️

But the offer shows the notable difference between the two campaigns.

Indyref the no campaign was essentially a Westminster one, and Westminster has to represent Scottish voters until they decide to leave.

Whereas the EU27 were prepared to discuss and present their opinion of what Brexit looked like excluding the uK.

I’d imagine a No campaign run entirely by English, Welsh and Irish MP’s telling Scotland that if it voted yes they would close the border unless Scotland agreed to accept rUK rules would play very differently. As the EU kept saying, you cant have your cake and eat it, you can’t have frictionless trade with the EU, and with rUK, because at least the current Westminster government seems determined to have a bonfire of regulations.

Yup, they’ll be in a bigger market,

They’ll have the option to join a bigger market, that they’re geographically separated from by the sea. Vs the one they have a very frictionless border with.

Sounds awfully like the promises made about transatlantic trade deals. And the USA was never going to accept UK (EU) standards just as the rUK is never going to accept Scotland dictating (EU) standards. However “reasonable” any party want’s to be.

Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and quickly. The killer is that the obvious answer to currency is use the euro and I am not sure the SNP will be able to sell that to the public.

A good answer on money is needed

I’d imagine a No campaign run entirely by English, Welsh and Irish MP’s

I don’t think you’ll get a lot of English/Welsh solidarity in that respect.

Sounds awfully like the promises made about transatlantic trade deals.

Well, apart from Scotland being geographically close to Ireland, NI, Netherlands, Norway etc… that already have arrangements to reduce frictions at borders… and would welcome Scotland into those arrangements… so nothing like the USA. Don’t get me wrong, independence could carry a very high cost for Scotland if England decided to stick to its pretty much unique in Europe anti single market and anti customs union position… but that would be the choice of people/voters/politicians this side of the border… and our choices might be informed by events that occur here between now and and any possible separation. We have a way of solving this, if the English choose it, when/if the time comes.

The National up there is a rag. I should know, my father in law provides his old copies for me to light the stove, and I raise an eyebrow at the slant of the thing as I tear it up.

That said bring on Scottish Independence. I’m all for it. English and Scottish politics are now so fundamentally different it needs to happen.

Irish re-unification is close also.

I don’t think you’ll get a lot of English/Welsh solidarity in that respect.

Depends how big a carrot/stick gets deployed I suppose.

If it came to it then:
a) Boris would presumably only need a rUK Westminster majority to get a deal agreed.
b) Romantic notions of Celtic solidarity aside, it’s not in their short term self interest to side with an iScotland they don’t share a land border with.
c) There’s no long term payback for them, Scotland won’t be at the table when iWales is in future negotiations with rUK.
d) Boris would be negotiating with his own MP’s, how closely aligned is a Welsh Tory MP with general anti Tory sentiment, barely to not at all?

molgrips
Full Member

I also think it’s in the SNP’s interests to have the vote before Johnson gets replaced with someone potentially much more competent, sensible and reasonable; likely from a different party.

Without a doubt. But, this is more or less a manifestation of the divergence of scottish and westminster politics. Basically Johnston is bad weather. But Johnston and May and Cameron are bad climate. It’s not just Johnston, it’s now 12 years not just of Tory misrule to various degrees but no real likelihood of change.

One major problem for the indy campaign, is that previously, Yes leaned heavily on the idea that the rUK would do the sensible things, and cooperate with scotland because it’s in their joint interest. Brexit’s proved that the rUK will happily cut off its own cock as long as someone else gets splashed with blood. This is kinda problematic. Ironically having a government that’s in a state of absolute dishonesty, self-harm and dysfunction, and having that largely accepted, is also an incredibly strong argument for not leaving

We may have waited til we’re too far down the plughole to get out. Anyone in Scotland that isn’t now far more negative about the UK than they were in 2014 is a halfwit frankly but the same goes for anyone that’s not also more negative about independence.

and would welcome Scotland into those arrangements…

The same was said of the USA.

We have a way of solving this, if the English choose it, when/if the time comes.

The same was said of the EU.

It’s not hypothetical, it’s what’s playing out in NI right now. And Boris seems to be doubling down on his position.

The only unknown is how a different colour Westminster government would approach it as this is likely to drag on into the next parliament. And I can’t see Brexit being rowed back quickly, I suspect Boris’s zeal for deregulation will make that impossible. Which means for at least a few decades there would need to be a decision which way do iScotland want to trade freely, because the EU isn’t going to accept an open border to rUK, and rUK doesn’t look like it’ll want to re-adopt a position close to the EU.

So it’s not an “English” decision to have an open border. We could open it and say we’ll trade freely, but it’ll be Scotland unable to accept those terms unless we re-harmonize with the EU.

Ironically having a government that’s in a state of absolute dishonesty, self-harm and dysfunction, and having that largely accepted, is also an incredibly strong argument for not leaving

We may have waited til we’re too far down the plughole to get out. Anyone in Scotland that isn’t now far more negative about the UK than they were in 2014 is a halfwit frankly but the same goes for anyone that’s not also more negative about independence.

Northwind sums it up for me.

Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and quickly. The killer is that the obvious answer to currency is use the euro and I am not sure the SNP will be able to sell that to the public.

A good answer on money is needed

That’s very optimistic. Why wouldn’t Scotland have to follow the rules laid out to join? It’d need a currency it controlled to peg to the Euro before adopting it for a start. Would Spain risk encouraging Catalonian independence?

Re-joining the EU sadly isn’t realistic for either the UK or an independent Scotland. The good deal we had is gone and it’ll be hard to sell an obviously worse one. It’s also likely that the remaining UK would have a Tory government who would find political capital in being as awkward as possible for any trade deals and would likely impose a hard border with Scotland under the pretence of stopping illegal immigration. The disruption would be far worse than brexit as the EU had some goodwill towards us.