Scotland Indyref 2

Yup – anecdotaly compliance has been better up here despite more severe restictions

Interesting

Monica lennon ( candidate to lead labour in Scotland) is open to a second referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/16/scottish-labour-back-independence-poll-monica-lennon-leadership

Presumably that means she will be cast out for Heresy

I’m not convinced she was ever in with a realistic chance of the post against the son of millionaire Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar.

scotroutes
It’s easier to hide lack of progress with a tunnel.

I think you underestimate Boris’s sagacity.

He’s already aware that the explosives for the necessary blasting are already in place in the Beaufort Dyke.

A million tons, I read somewhere.

I’m not sure of the purpose of the 25,000 or so tons of mustard and phosgene munitions though. Perhaps to finish off the fishing industry?

https://www.naturphilosophie.co.uk/what-lies-beneath-the-toxic-legacy-of-post-war-ammunition-dumping/

With his duties reduced, Gove is expected to step up work strengthening the ties between the countries of the United Kingdom as head of the Cabinet Office “union unit” in the run-up to elections in May, the Guardian understands. “There will be more focus on it,” one No 10 source said.

Johnson himself holds the position of minister for the union but had previously been urged to create a dedicated role to respond to growing support for Scottish independence as well as tensions in Northern Ireland.

Another gift for NS from Boris because Gove telling the Scots we are better in the Union will go down well (odious little —–)

🙂

Another gift for NS from Boris because Gove telling the Scots we are better in the Union will go down well (odious little —–)

The thought process is probably about having a Scotsman living and working in England campaigning for the Union to offset all those Englishmen living and working in Scotland campaigning for iS

As for Gove’s personal qualities he has his fans and his detractors. I’m sure they are all put aside on Burn’s night.

Johnson himself holds the position of minister for the union but had previously been urged to create a dedicated role growing support for Scottish independence as well as tensions in Northern Ireland.

FIFY

I’m sure they are all put aside on Burn’s night.

Absolutely.

<you have seen the Wicker Man, right?>

Dont you ever get tired of trolling and trying to wind me up with snide references BIg and Daft? You really do look foolish you know. Still – it gives me someone to laugh at which is not to be sneezed at in these times

It’s OK, it’s all in hand as knowledge of Scotland only discretionary for job in Gove’s ‘Union Unit’ in Whitehall:

Union Unit

That’ll suit the mandarins of Whitehall fine who in my experience tend to go a bit funny when they venture further north than the midlands.

That is just the most westminster “unionist” thing ever isn’t it.

BREAKING

Oliver Lewis has quit Number 10 as head of the Union unit

Lewis – a Dominic Cummings ally – felt his position was being made 'untenable' by others in No 10

Lewis worked with Boris Johnson on Vote Leave, his leadership campaign & helped strike the Brexit deal

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) February 19, 2021

Interesting on Lewis’s departure

There’s a certain element of Leavers that would be quite happy for Scotland to leave the UK ( any comments session on the BBC quickly descends into attacks on Sturgeon & wishes for Scotland to go)

I wonder if Lewis was in that camp or just clashed with the Allegra Stratton/Spectator PR op being run from No.10

So the Strurgeon/Salmond thing has legs

Im not convinced it will dent the SNPs vote that much, by May it will be chip paper?

meanwhile, Im not sure the tories in scotland quite get how this indy thing works

meanwhile in No.10 I think they may be realising that just slapping down a 2nd ref is counter productive

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-a-new-realism-in-no-10-about-scottish-independence-8djlmgw0n

Salmond has lost the plot IMO

His ego is taking him to places he really should not be going. His admitted behaviour during the trial was abhorrent. I think his issue is he is such a dinosaur that he does not understand the effect of a big powerful ( both physical and politically) man pressuring women.

Yes his accusers overegged the pudding and again IMO built up the accusations to criminal when they may not have been but the idea that the whole thing was simply a conspiracy against him is pure paranoia

I think it will cause a loss of votes but I do not think Salmond will get the support from the electorate that he thinks he will

Salmond really is an odious toad.

met him once at the airport when he was the FM. Really did not like being in his company, I really felt uncomfortable about his body language and his leering at women in the group.

Just a media frenzy created by the Tories / Unionists because they don’t actually have any policies to address the electorate because they know that Boris, Gove etc are pretty toxic. The whole thing will fizzle out with no / minimum consequences.

Dovebiker – I am not so sure about that. There would seem to be various factions infighting / power stuggling over a variety of issues and some of those groups are using the Salmond situation to exert leverage

I have issues over some Scottish people believing that Scotland shouldn’t be a country. Just can’t fathom it. Especially with the argument that the UK should be a country in its own right, and not subject to the whims of the EU.

It’s probably better for the 4 nations to be 4 nations.

Dynati

there are some people like my family that have connections both sides of the boarder. I myself had big doubts about abandoning my friends in the north of England to the tender mercies of the tories ( but no longer)

The other main strand I have seen is forces people. they felt it a betrayal of those they had fought alongside.

right or wrong these views have some validity to the people expressing them

Dynati

Hyphenated please lol.

Heavens sake, nobody is suggesting we rebuild Hadrian’s wall and man it with machine guns every 50m. Just the Scotland be what it always has been but legally and not some other county of England.

I think missed nuance again – I was just giving two of the main reasons I have heard that make some sense from people who are doubtful about independence ( I did not include the nonsensical too small too poor too stupid)

Because of my own doubts I had a lot of conversations with a lot of people from different backgrounds before finally voting YES

Really interesting analysis of the polls including everyone’s favourite pollster John curtice here

https://www.podbean.com/media/player/k6fyd-fbe0b0-pb?vjs=1

If Scotland did gain independence and then membership of Europe, would the country assume/expect to be treated in relations with England the same as France etc or would there be some expectation of some kind of special relationship with England because of the land border and the practical difficulty of any ‘conscious uncoupling.’

Thanks

mrsheen
Free Member
If Scotland did gain independence and then membership of Europe, would the country assume/expect to be treated in relations with England the same as France etc or would there be some expectation of some kind of special relationship with England because of the land border and the practical difficulty of any ‘conscious uncoupling.’

Thanks

Would more than likely be on the same terms as france. Which is why we should have a serious discussion about it before committing to anything.

EU membership shouldn’t be taken as a given.

If Scotland did gain independence and then membership of Europe, would the country assume/expect to be treated in relations with England

Call me crazy,naive or just plain deluded, but I’ve kind of considered England’s only hope is if Scotland becomes independent, then rejoins the EU and allows England to work through us for EU markets, kind of like making brexit that is brexit in name only.

Of course we’d need to placate the Scottish unionists, who would no doubt look to cause trouble.

I think what happens with NI will be important for an Indy Scotland, it could well end up with something more like Mays deal & CU membership after a few years , which would make things a lot smoother between England & Scotland , even if not whatever process & tech is eventually used to smooth the rUK NI issues will be easily applicable to Scotland

Ultimately it will depend who is in westminster, looking at whats happened since Brexit, the tories will happily try & blame everything on Scotland & adopt a policy of deliberately stoking division to boost populist supprt in England

would the country assume/expect to be treated in relations with England the same as France etc or would there be some expectation of some kind of special relationship with England because of the land border

In 2014 the independence side talked a lot about close links, friends over the border and so on and clearly would be looking for some sort of closer relationship

However the unionists torpedoed this with their scorched earth policy

so IMO it would depend very much on how Westminster acted and who was in power. It could be like the velvet divorce or it could be an utter shitshow

tjagain
Full Member

so IMO it would depend very much on how Westminster acted and who was in power. It could be like the velvet divorce or it could be an utter shitshow

Yep. And tbh the only sane way for the ruk to handle it is the velvet divorce, it’s massively better for all concerned. But brexit proves that sanity isn’t neccesarily a motivator and that you can’t assume that westminster will do what’s in the UK’s own interest if they think they can spin it better if they choose a self-harming route. So much of the last indy campaign was based on “We expect this to be the outcome because it’s the only option that makes any sense” and that ought to be the case but it’s not.

This is obviously a good reason to want independence, but it’s also a pretty big concern. Weird that Westminster can weaken the case for independence by running the country really badly.

Call me crazy,naive or just plain deluded, but I’ve kind of considered England’s only hope is if Scotland becomes independent, then rejoins the EU and allows England to work through us for EU markets, kind of like making brexit that is brexit in name only.

Deluded

The EU will act to protect the single market. That means day 1 iS is a third country in respect of the EU-UK trading agreement and rules of origin.

If and when iS joins the EU there will be a EU single market border.

No-one has given a realistic scenario where there won’t be a border.

The first priority of the proto iS government will be the iS-rUK agreement, how much bandwidth will there be to negotiate in parallel with the EU? It’s a foreseeable risk that iS is unable to conclude both and so has to choose a priority. Issues such as tripartite regulatory alignment, iS state aid rules etc etc all will eat negotiating time.

In 2014 the independence side talked a lot about close links, friends over the border and so on and clearly would be looking for some sort of closer relationship

However the unionists torpedoed this with their scorched earth policy

so IMO it would depend very much on how Westminster acted and who was in power. It could be like the velvet divorce or it could be an utter shitshow

It’s not 2014, UK has left the EU. The nature of the EU-UK trade agreement means a hard border. Westminster is only one party in the matter. Westminster as the only bogeyman is kidding yourselves, the EU will want to make sure the single market is protected, iS is outside that and therefore already on the back foot.

The EU will only make vaguely friendly noises until there is a section 30 yes vote. Anything else would be a massive diplomatic incident. So no agreements, no formal statements, nothing but vague press briefing. If there is a yes vote then they will turn the thumbscrews as they know any “rejoin” campaign in iS needs the EU more than the EU needs iS.

Anyone arguing for “rejoin” has to tackle the currency and fiscal rules issues. What currency, when is it adopted, how fast are you complying with the fiscal rules?

If it’s not on the ballot paper as part of the “yes” campaign then it’s already at least one parliamentary term away.

I think what happens with NI will be important for an Indy Scotland, it could well end up with something more like Mays deal & CU membership after a few years , which would make things a lot smoother between England & Scotland , even if not whatever process & tech is eventually used to smooth the rUK NI issues will be easily applicable to Scotland

Your massive unstated presumption is that iS rejoins the EU. Is that on the indyref2 ballot paper?

Your massive unstated presumption is that iS rejoins the EU. Is that on the indyref2 ballot paper?

I shoulve quoted it, but I thought it was obvious I was replying to mrsheen’s question as were all the posts above mine!

Maybe not. But Britain being out of the EU is a major reason why support for Independence has grown. So what would be the point of a yes vote if it didn’t mean reversing Brexit for Scotland?

But Britain being out of the EU is a major reason why support for Independence has grown

Agreed, curtice chats about it in the podcast I linked to

Realistically, Brexit + Sturgeons far more grown up handling of covid crisis means that an SNP majority is very likely come May (salmonds egowar not withstanding) EU membership is a bit of a distraction and at last another term away that B&D, Andrew Neil etc have got hung up on.

What really matters is what happens when/if Johnson says no to the next ref

Its SNP policy that we rejoin the EU.

I think you are very muddled here BnD

firstly your post is full of your opinion stated as fact. Secondly you conflate the SNP, the Scottish Government and the wider independence movement and finally you continue to ask things that have no answer at this time

You also keep asking us to give a definite answer to questions that can only be answered by the first post independence government

Maybe not. But Britain being out of the EU is a major reason why support for Independence has grown. So what would be the point of a yes vote if it didn’t mean reversing Brexit for Scotland?

Because yes I agree getting back into Europe would seem to be the best way to go, however since the brexit vote it is now very apparent that what Scotland wants and what England wants are poles apart and some (myself included) would just prefer that the Scots choose which way the country goes.