The bookies odds are still looking very long on Susan Hall.

Do people on here know something the bookies don’t or should I be putting a tenner on it?

What’s MrsBinners doing?

the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!

Let’s face it, they all still believe that Brexit was a wonderful idea.

It’s a mix of delusion and utter stupidity. The current crop of Tories are all there because they’re Brexiteers – all the sane ones got purged during Johnson’s reign when he had to create a Government based on the idealogy of Brexit, in spite of no-one really knowing what it was or should be.

What started as a wonderful sailing ship, the SS Great Britain with lots of former Red Wall MPs on board, is now a barely floating wreck being tossed around in the sea of reality. The marginally smarter Tories have managed to find a life vest in the shape of Reform or GB News grifting and have abandoned ship.

The dumb ones are still clinging to the remnants of their once mighty ship, fervently believing that it’s still a magnificent sailing vessel destined for greatness if it can just hold on over the next wave and occasionally having fights over who gets to hold the rudder next.

Meanwhile Rishi is there clinging to the remains of the rudder informing everyone that he’s definitely got a plan and he’s steering the ship dutifully – while ignoring the shouts that there’s a massive rock called General Election just up ahead.

I hope those who chose do use their vote to make a point, rather than stop her, are happy with that.

Interesting that you are hoping to shame people into voting the way you want rather than hoping the Labour party finds some way of addressing the concerns that led to people to not vote the way you want.

The Greens took 34/70 seats in Bristol so within a whisker of overall control. Remarkable.

Let’s face it, they all still believe that Brexit was a wonderful idea.

CCHQ Mandated news sources

1. the Daily Express.

Interesting that you are hoping to shame people into voting the way you want rather than hoping the Labour party finds some way of addressing the concerns that led to people to not vote the way you want.

thats a feature of fptp, with a binary outcome votes for smaller parties are wasted

Which is why the Tories just changed back to fptp for mayoralty votes

votes for smaller parties are wasted

But presumably only if the votes they get don’t go to your preferred party. I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted. In fact given how the Greens preform I suspect that they are mostly satisfied.

the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!

Some hapless Tory drone was just on Radio 4, having drawn the short straw and been sent out to deliver the ‘Ridhi’s plan is working’  repeatedly

It was then pointed out to him that they’ve just lost control of councils that have ALWAYS been Tory

thats a feature of fptp, with a binary outcome votes for smaller parties are wasted

And yet UKIP/Reform voters have been driving the direction of the country for the last 15 years.

Tories chase Reform voters.  Labour chase Tory voters.  Green chase Labour voters.

Everyone ends up chasing the votes to the right of them and before you know it you’re out of the EU and living through some neo-liberal hellscape.  And the boiling a frog nature of the process means many people don’t even notice.

In terms of direction of the country, UKIP/Reform voters have achieved more than any other group.

But presumably only if the votes they get don’t go to your preferred party. I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted. In fact given how the Greens preform I suspect that they are mostly satisfied.

i should have added the caveat ‘in a tight race’

as I said there’s very good reason there Tories wanted fptp ,

i should have added the caveat ‘in a tight race’

I would argue that voting for ‘no hoper’ parties in tight races is more important.

If the chances of a majority are hanging by a thread then where the lost votes are going is very very important and the desires of a handful of voters can drive the direction of an entire city or even an entire country.

Isn’t FPTP brilliant!

Just looking at our local results and I’m sure this will make some nice reading in the MEN for our local Tefal-headed cockwomble and deputy of the Tory party, James Daly.

A sign of things to come. Hopefully as soon as possible, tick tock..

“There were scenes of jubilation as Labour sprung a major upset in Bury. Mirroring the success the party enjoyed nationally, the shock win in North Manor saw the party make further inroads into the Conservatives’ traditional heartlands.

A huge roar from those in red rosettes greeted the announcement that John Southworth had toppled Conservative Liam Dean following a dramatic recount. The result is believed to be the first time a Labour councillor has ever been elected in what is historically a Tory stronghold previously held by Bury North MP James Daly.”

😃

According to Sky News despite “wild rumours” both Labour and the Tories believe that Sadiq Khan has “clung on”.

If the best that he can do, in a Labour stronghold, under the present political climate, is to cling on to power, then it will surely be time for him to pass the baton to someone else next Mayoral election.

On the other hand, if the Tory candidate hadn’t been a total disaster zone Lab might have campaigned harder?

The last Tory mayoral candidate was a disaster too, it was as if the Tories accepted that they stood no chance and just put up a token candidate, and yet Sadiq Khan only beat him by less than 5% in the first round.

If Kier Starmer hadn’t reacted to Uxbridge by saying “yeah, this ULEZ is all a bit crap, innit, what idiot approved that?” instead of supporting Khan and articulating why ULEZ is the solution thr country’s biggest city needs, maybe a one trick pony like Hall would have gained less traction.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/22/labour-considers-stance-on-green-issues-after-ulez-linked-uxbridge-lost

So it’s Starmer’s fault that Sadiq Khan isn’t as popular as he should be?

Well apparently what’s going on in Palestine is Starmers fault, so I don’t see why he should get away with this.

Its also rumoured he was personally responsible for the fact that you can no longer buy Worcester sauce flavour Wheat Crunchies, and if that’s true then I’ll have to question my own vote at the general election

It’s begun. Some no name minister on BBC Breakfast just saying (unchallenged) that a vote for Labour at the GE would mean “the most left wing government in history” and “an amnesty for immigrants”. The attack lines and who they’re trying to appeal to are pretty clear.

 I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted.

Quite. Twenty years ago, there were no Green councillors in Bristol, now it’s by far the largest party. That would never have happened if people listened to the usual nonsense that they were wasting their vote.

I expect the culture war bullshit will go in to overdrive now that they know how bad things really are

Rishi will bottle it now and postpone a general election until the last possible moment, leaving 6 months of ‘Labour will make you take a trans, muslamic, terrorist immigrant into your house and let them eat your cat’ nonsense

So it’s Starmer’s fault that Sadiq Khan isn’t as popular as he should be?

That’s unknowable but I don’t think he should be publicly undermining the most powerful Labour politician currently in office.

the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!
Posted 3 hours ago

Fake it till you make it

and yet Sadiq Khan only beat him by less than 5% in the first round.

More than the Brexit margin you were so enthusiastic about. 😉

That’s unknowable but I don’t think he should be publicly undermining the most powerful Labour politician currently in office.

If Starmer’s relationship with Khan is affecting Khan’s popularity with Londoners it is likely to be because Khan is seen as being too close to Starmer.

It is widely being accepted that the one issue which had a negative effect on Labour’s vote on Thursday was its stance over what Israel is doing in Gaza. Despite being a Muslim, and calling for a ceasefire early, Khan is seen by many of the 15% of Londoners who are Muslim as a Labour establishment figure. His closeness to Starmer significantly adds to that perception. And undoubtedly a major factor if the Greens have done well at Labour’s expense.

And btw:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/greater-london-ulez-londoners-tories-mayor-b2514438.html

More than the Brexit margin you were so enthusiastic about. 😉

I have never expressed any enthusiasm for the “Brexit margin”.

If you go back through this thread you will see that yesterday I remarked, concerning any Khan victory, quote:

“Whether he wins by ten votes or a hundred thousand makes no difference to his powers as London mayor”

@binners He’s made a huge tactical blunder by waiting until after the LEs though. There are now a whole load of disillusioned ex-Councillors and local party members who will be nursing a grudge and may not bother to campaign come GE time, with fired-up opposition parties.

The longer he hangs on, the worse it will get for them. And in the meantime we don’t really have a functioning government.

Also

London: Merton and Wandsworth result. Sadiq Khan first round lead over Shaun Bailey, 16943. Sadiq Khan first round lead over Susan Hall, 33749.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) May 4, 2024

Greenwich and Lewisham: Sadiq Khan lead over Susan Hall 46970, Sadiq Khan lead over Shaun Bailey first round 2021 33425.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) May 4, 2024

On the face of it (and it’s early) Khan could well have this sewn up. I wonder if it’s a function of the change in voting system, ie. people who’d have voted LD/Green 1st and Lab 2nd are now just voting for Lab having been horrified by the potential of Hall?

First London borough to declare wasn’t particularly close! Over 80k votes for Khan and 35k or so for Hall.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/susan-hall-pickpocketing-tube-crime-tfl-sadiq-khan-lbc-nick-ferrari-b1125117.html

Although it’s six months old I have only just read that ^^. It’s **** hilarious and well worth a read!

I loved her claiming that she didn’t know whether or not she had been pickpocketed despite her getting her wallet with 40 quid back. And being asked how she can be trusted with London when she can’t be trusted with her own wallet!

@binners He’s made a huge tactical blunder by waiting until after the LEs though. There are now a whole load of disillusioned ex-Councillors and local party members who will be nursing a grudge and may not bother to campaign come GE time, with fired-up opposition parties.

@ratherbeintobago – funny you should mention that. I’ve just been reading lots of disgruntled moaning on Twitter about our useless MP James Daly and also Jake Berry ( in the neighbouring constituency) not bothering to put in an appearence during the counts, to see lots of local Tory councilors lose their seats.

I can understand them not wanting the ‘Thick Of It’ style optics, but its clearly not gone down well at all with the people who’ve been doing the donkey work on the ground. Like you said, maybe come GE time, when central office want people to campaign, they’ll find something a bit more worthwhile and less thankless to do instead.

I posted earlier on the thread about the Tory candidate for Manchester Mayor defecting to Reform amid accusations that he had received absolutely zero support from Tory Central Office. Rishi and chums are not making themselves any friends in these places with the people they’ll soon be relying on to campaign for them.

Its almost like they’re rich, aloof and over-privileged London-centric elite, filled with a sense of their own entitlement, who don’t know how these things really work in places too icky and frightful for them to bother getting their hands dirty with?

I wonder if it’s a function of the change in voting system, ie. people who’d have voted LD/Green 1st and Lab 2nd are now just voting for Lab having been horrified by the potential of Hall?

Very likely I would have thought. I didn’t decide until Thursday after seeing the survation poll that it was safe to vote Green. In the previous mayoral election I didn’t hesitate at all to vote Green and make Khan my second choice.

The thing I found really odd (in a ward that near enough neighbours Bury) we have three Tory councillors, two of whom are useless and largely get re-elected off the back of the other one’s personal vote, and everyone knows this. If Lab or LDs had campaigned seriously this year or last…

That’s unknowable but I don’t think he should be publicly undermining the most powerful Labour politician currently in office.

Starmer’s flip-flopping around in search of the populist approach to the whole Uxbridge by-election thing was a disgrace. Both Conservative and Labour were claiming that ULEZ was a factor but for opposite reasons and Starmer threw Sadiq Khan under the bus in search of the populist answer too.

He could have backed the mayor completely, explained why ULEZ was essential (and that it was originally proposed under Boris Johnson anyway) and killed a whole load of conspiracy theory crap in one go but he did his standard “refuse to commit to anything” sit on the fence answer.

Thankfully the early results for London look pretty promising. 🤞

A vote for Labour will mean “the most left wing government in history”

Fingers crossed…

History Q: What was the most left wing government in the UK’s history?

We’re still paying for the ULEZ bollocks in Uxbridge (and if memory serves the Lab candidate was against it too). However it’s in now and I suspect a lot of people will have found they’re not actually affected by it?

Attlee 1945 IMO, PCA.

According to the Daily Telegraph the first two declared London mayoral election results actually represent about a 5% swing to Labour.

Labour have claimed victory in London. Swing so far at 5.7%.

I know count is by area but is the London contest a simple most votes overall?

The majorities in the (now 4) declared in absolutes total up to something like 350k to 165k, although it is noted that these are mainly inner city rather than outer london ulez areas.