Rishi! Sunak!

but it’s well and truly tangled up with him being Islamic.

IMO that is probably more likely to win him votes than to lose him votes.

I doubt that the overwhelming majority of Londoners, 41% of whom were born outside the UK, give a monkeys what religion he is.

On the other hand there is little doubt that some of the Muslim community, who make up 15% of Londoners, don’t like Khan but vote for him nevertheless because he is considered a brother and will always represent them better than a Tory.

Goldsmith tried the “don’t vote for him he’s a Muslim” and it spectacularly backfired.

John Curtice has just unveiled BBC’s projected national vote share: Labour lead 9 points, same as last year

Just about a majority – territory

What’s the point of comparing apples with oranges?

Excellent point Ernie. There’s a big difference between council and general elections.

swing at parliamentary by-elections are historically a much better predictor band thet are in hefty majority territory

They seem to be calling the East Mids mayor for Labour, which is quite an achievement considering I don’t think I knew her name before I put an X next to it.

Labour were confident quite early on when they saw the various piles of ballot papers.

I’ve been working on one of the counts and there was a very significant Labour majority even early on. Her pile of papers was 3x the size of anyone else’s even before official counting had begun.

Good result. 💥

yikes

Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: https://t.co/fHVzJ5Zj93

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) May 3, 2024

Dear London.
WTAF?!

Not good at all if Hall wins, she’s utterly vile.

However, her unique lack of humanity and intelligence, will be ever more visible if she does win.  Probably not going to be a good look for the Tories heading into a GE with her spewing bile over the airwaves.

All the chatter on Susan Hall is a bit premature, as they’ve not even started counting, let alone splitting out the various electoral races. Just social media filling a void of actual news…but I really hope she’s nowhere near, or not near enough for a scare at least…

My council, Dudley, is going to be tight 😫

It’s nice of you to let Dudley know, via STW, I’m sure he’ll appreciate it.

But where is your council.

Sorry – feeling a bit giddy as the Tories have taken another shellacking.

🙂

There’s a reply I could type that refers to Tories and ****ing Dudley that’d get me the ban hammer

I’d struggle to names something Khan has done succesfully amongst all the negative news

Free school meals for all primary school kids + keeping TfL afloat despite central government sabotage after Covid + bus hopper fares + ULEZ expansion + firing Cressida Dick are all positives I (genuinely) remembered offhand. “Not being totally nuts” is an achievement by comparison to his rivals, I suppose, but that speaks to their poor qualities.

You can see his list of what he says he’s done here: https://sadiq.london/manifesto/sadiqs-top-20-achievements/

Apparently Sunak believes ‘voters will stick with us” at the general election

Just watching him announcing that on the news, surrounded by a crowd of Tory sock-puppets with faces like smacked arses! Rishi looks like a delusional half-wit when it’s so obvious that even the party faithful around him know they’re all absolutely ****ed with that muppet at the helm.

I see he tried his hard man routine again, being photographed in front of tanks with rufty tufty men in uniform

His Napoleon complex really is getting worse by the day, isn’t it?

Apparently Sunak believes ‘voters will stick with us” at the general election

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/03/tories-take-refuge-in-fantasy-as-local-election-drubbing-becomes-clear

Amused at the images of Ben Houchin and Rishi, Ben with a face like a smacked arse. Can see him thinking “I won this beacuse of my hard work and local reputation, inspite of you, so don’t come here taking credit. Go on F.O. back to Yorkshire. Oh, yeah, you’re not welcome there either”

top rated comment in the daily fail story of the tories being drubbed….

Electoral reform is desperately needed. Both the main parties are no different from one another. As long as only they get the lions share of the parliamentary seats, they’re happy. Neither care what the great unwashed actually want or care about. And, choosing not to vote for them has little effect

seems the locals are getting nervous, don’t think they’d be singing the same song if lil rishi was on track for 200+ majority

@binners Yeah Rishi now has a Labour Mayor too, deep joy! I have the pleasure of living in Rishi’s Tory heartland constituency and couldn’t believe it really. Just need him to lose his seat next and life will be complete.

Tories are going to be hammered big time in the GE if the current situation is a true reflection of things to come, which I am not surprised.

If Labour wants to remain in power, assuming they win the next GE, they should really think before they speak in regard to their foreign policy related to Ukraine and Gaza.  Unlike the past, this time it will bite hard.

PM Rishi Sunak has no chance whatsoever to turn things around. No chance.  It is a matter of how heavy they will be hammered in the next GE.

It’s a mess online, lots of Tories going full on MAGA and getting ready for a whole Stop the Steal thing over postal votes for Khan.

It’s actually bloody fantastic. They are also blaming Reform… and Reform voters are blaming them (and immigrants obvs) and sane people are just looking on in wonder.

I think the tory party are just holding out in *vain hope reform can be bought off to at least not fielding candidates in key tory marginals.

*  It’s vain because I don’t think it’ll make a blind bit of difference.

Klunk
Free Member
I think the tory party are just holding out in *vain hope reform can be bought off to at least not fielding candidates in key tory marginals.

Interestingly the Reform mayoral candidate out right said he would have considered not running if the Tories had contacted him back after he contacted them. It was on BBC News channel.

It’s still possible unfortunately. I would not be shocked if Reform did strike a deal.

I can see the Tories and Reform now going full Peoples Front of Judea/Judean Peoples Front to chase the racist pensioner vote

They are also blaming Reform… and Reform voters are blaming them (and immigrants obvs) and sane people are just looking on in wonder.

Reform will win loads of votes if they know how to handle the two important foreign policy issues but I doubt they can win anything significant.

If you follow Stephen Bush he’s making some interesting points about the London mayor election based on the possibility of it being closer than expected. Had the Tories fielded a sane/non repellent candidate etc etc. Of course, they don’t seem to have those any more, but you get the gist.

Obviously this is gonna age like split milk

I still think a Tory/reform deal is underpriced. I’m sure tice said no, and that they were intending to smash the Tories and rebuild them in their own image or something, but the poor chap hasn’t been shown the kompromat yet.

All the chatter on Susan Hall is a bit premature, as they’ve not even started counting

The latest jitters appears to be based on a low turnout. Although 40.5% is 1.5% lower than the last mayoral election turnout it isn’t a huge difference and it certainly isn’t the lowest turnout for a London mayoral election.

And I’m not sure why it would necessarily benefit Susan Hall. Of all the political parties the demoralised Tories must have surely have had the most trouble motivating their voters to get off their arses yesterday?

Sure their hardcore supporters will have voted but its not them who are going to make a difference, its the ones that didn’t vote for them in 2021.

35% turnout seems to be the critical number for turnout from what I’m seeing, above which Sadiq becomes increasingly more likely

Although I admit I’m struggling to follow the logic fully

35% turnout seems to be the critical number for turnout from what I’m seeing, above which Sadiq becomes increasingly more likely

Turnout in the East Midlands County Combined Authority mayoral election was 28% overall (across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire). Some areas crept up to mid/high 30’s % – surprisingly the more Tory areas.
Some places were down at 20% turnout.

It’s a weird area actually. Nottingham is strongly Labour/Remain.
Nottinghamshire as a county is strongly Tory/Leave. So some areas had a high Tory vote but it didn’t come close to cancelling out Labour’s share.

A lot of spoiled papers as well, about 2% in the Police & Crime Commissioner election (also won by the Labour candidate).
Lots of swearing, some drawings of cocks, various anti-police slogans… The Mayoral election had one paper with:
“Rishi is a rat-faced xxxx” written across it (with xxxx being a word that rhymes with hunt).
Several saying “none of the above” or “you’re all xxxx”

Pretty nuts that Tories are 3rd party by no of councillors

Now this makes sense:

“There is no doubt that in a low turnout the most motivated voters were the ones angry about Ulez.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-hall-b2539260.html

Apparently the areas with the higher turnouts are Tory areas. Which coincidentally are also the areas that were most likely affected by the ulez expansion.

Starmer did ask Khan to rethink his ulez expansion last summer during a cost of living crisis but apart from the scrappage scheme Khan was adamant that he wouldn’t, I hope that he didn’t miscalculate.

Although with the most Tory favourable poll on the eve of the election still giving him a 10% lead I doubt that he has.

I thought I was being clever and compared 21 to 24 mayor turnout

kahn was down 2.2% on average and hall up 1 on Bailey’s turnout 

this guy went way further  and mapped turnout onto  vote numbers from last time

by his count its could be very close, with inner city turnout down more than outer is up

Ok, here is what I've done. ..

I take the results from 2021 and scale the results according to the change in turnout in each London Assembly constituency in yesterday's election.

This assumes no change in voting behaviour at a constituency level.

Swing to CON is 0.3% https://t.co/RnzYMn4EeZ pic.twitter.com/1Go6E5WVxq

— Marwan???? (@MarwanData) May 3, 2024

of course change to fptp has thrown a lot of  into the air

hard to know how people voted without a 2nd pref available , but it could be very tight, potentially very few votes in it!

As much as I hope Khan gets back in, it’d quite likely be a phyrric victory for the Tories if Hall gets in- it’s only a tiny ray of sunshine in a couple of days of crushing defeat for the party, it loses them one of their favourite punchbags and most polarising and racist-mobilising targets, and Hall herself is an absolute nightmare even for her friends.

But it’d be nicer not to have to find out

it’d quite likely be a phyrric victory for the Tories if Hall gets in

Maybe. But there’s 800,000 children living in poverty in London, and it’s then that will ultimately bear the brunt of an extremist like Hall being elected. 😱

I like this comment:

The Tory campaign had a simple strategy (“It had to be simple,” according to one Conservative activist, “otherwise Susan would have struggled to understand it”), and that was: throw enough mud and some of it will stick.

With 48% turn out in outer London, Khan’s team gets the jitters

If the Tories won the London Mayoral election it would be huge imo. The London Mayor has the largest personal mandate of any UK politician. It would provide the Tories with a massive boost and represent a significant setback for Labour. There have been polls in recent months predicting that the Tories could lose every single seat in London so winning the Mayoral contest would be an impressive reversal of fortune.

Having said that the spectacle of Susan Hall being in the media limelight might do as much good for the Tories as Liz Truss did/does.

of course change to fptp has thrown a lot of  into the air

Absolutely. And voters have been used to being able to both express their true preference, and vote to prevent the worst candidate. This time, for the first time when directly electing the Mayor, many had to choose one or the other. If she gets in, and London is saddled with a Mayor who clearly cares not one jot for social cohesion, public health or the environment… I hope those who chose do use their vote to make a point, rather than stop her, are happy with that.

Chippenham didn’t have council elections this time around, they took place last year, and the Libdems walked away with most seats. Come the GE, and I can see the incumbent Tory MP getting her ass kicked out of office. Her actual office in town has oddly closed and moved somewhere low-profile; can’t for the life of me figure out why… It’s Michelle Donelan, if anyone’s interested. 😏

Pretty nuts that Tories are 3rd party by no of councillors

Green doing well too but the BBC seems to be focused on interviewing Reform bellends rather than anyone from Green.

I spoke briefly to the Green candidate for EMCCA Mayor (who, if you took the Nottingham votes alone actually was second, he got a great response within the city).

Although he looks a bit of a hippy, he was articulate, passionate and intelligent, he came across well.

But oh no, they’d rather get an interview with 30p Lee. 🙄

Green doing well too but the BBC seems to be focused on interviewing Reform bellends rather than anyone from Green.

Blatantly so.

the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!

The bookies odds are still looking very long on Susan Hall.

Do people on here know something the bookies don’t or should I be putting a tenner on it?