Osbourne says no to currency union.

2: rUK perspective: rUK would be more and unilaterally exposed to much higher levels of fiscal and financial risk from and independent Scotland

What are these risks?

It’s not obvious to me, how a much smaller country can destabilise a much larger one just by sharing the same currency.

The crux is not the risks themselves (even though they are real) it is the lack of balance between the positions of rUK and Scotland under the yS proposal. It’s a great result for Scotland but a poor one for rUK. Hence the recommendation from HMT, that they would not support the idea. All three major political parties in the UK have accepted this conclusion. IMO, they are correct to do so.

It’s not obvious to me, how a much smaller country can destabilise a much larger one just by sharing the same currency.

Greece and the Eurozone crisis: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000

Greece and the Eurozone crisis

Good analogy, but a lot of the rot set in when Greece was allowed to join with the Drachma over valued and the debts hidden. In the case of Scotland we know the books backwards as they’re ours already….

On balance then,i really cant see why Mr Salmond & Co haven’t stated they will set up a Scottish Central bank using the new Scottish pound

as THM later said

It’s [ currencncy union] a great result for Scotland but a poor one for rUK.

ie its better for scotland to have a union than not as all those negatives, of a new currency, disappear – the issue is that [ arguably] they transfer to rUK [ some clearly do]

Surely he would have been (politically) better off saying that Scotland would take her share of the BoE assets & would set up a new Scottish currency & bank – or am i missing something obvious here?

he wants to get them to vote yes and insist little will change [ I assume to attract floating voters] so politically its a good strategy even if it is [ still not convinced it will definitely NOT Happen but it is unlikely] complete and utter BS.

The deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives has agreed it would be “rational and sensible” for an independent Scotland to keep the pound.

Jackson Carlaw also said he would argue for Scotland to be automatically admitted to the EU in the event of a “Yes” vote in the referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26296632

Scottish Conservatives – so that’s 3 rangers fans in the back room of the pub?

Can we stop the thread now?

If the Yes vote wins maybe we can all give ourselves a pat on the back that a group of people can secede without a single shot being fired.
Events around the world seem to suggest this is a rarity.

I had a look at that House of Stuart Express report. I saw it as I am sure most reasonably minded people would. A slightly quirky and interesting article with an unbelievable and sensationalist headline to try to attract readers. If the yes camp reckon no voters are fearing the return of a Joan Rivers lookalike to the Scottish crown, they are much mistaken.

I see that very article is highlighted on the propaganda site that is Wings Over Scotland. An information service where nationalists can receive regular hits of “reality”. Takes clearly reliable sensationalist headlines mainly from the gutter press, and twists them with an unpleasant tone, so the yes camp can take it’s rantings as stating the view of the no camp verbatim.

That BBC Scotland link also has the Scottish Tory making the point that, in the event of a yes vote the momentum swings to the UK.
The UK doesn’t have a voice in the independence referendum, but then an iScotland wont have a voice in the ensuing general election – and that’s where the mandate for CU needs to come from.

Muddy dwarf If Scotland votes yes Scottish mps would still be returned to Westminster for the period from the UK general election until the formal date of independence..You’re right though Scottish mps should not have a say on rUK issues such as a potential currency union in that situation. IMO the correct thing to do would be to take no part in the debate and show CMD what not involved really means.

Given that the main party leaders, business leaders, HM Treasury all say they don’t support the idea, the BoE says CU won’t work without Political Union & the electorate appear to be increasingly against the idea then how likely is it that iScotland will be able to swing a deal that is so obviously against the interests of the UK?

I can’t see that happening somehow.

You’re right again, I personally would be happy without any currency union or pegging but I do believe Mr Salmond is right to stick to his current position till proper negotiations begin . I also believe that Mr Osborne will negotiate without going as far as currency union.

I think the only sensible option is for Scotland to create a central bank and separate currency & go on from there. Best for Scotland & best for the UK.

Someone mentioned currency speculation, would a Scots currency be at particular risk from such?

Only if iScotland pegged its exchange rate – Sorostastic!

THM’s post ignores the easiest options: unilaterally adopt the pound or the euro without being in currency union.

On balance then,i really cant see why Mr Salmond & Co haven’t stated they will set up a Scottish Central bank using the new Scottish pound, its not as if they don’t have the facilities to print them now is it?

Because central banking is expensive, because the world doesn’t need another poxy little currency, because buggering around transitioning software/stationery/systems is an unnecessary cost, because the public are morons who are still confused by buying bananas in kilos and petrol in litres.

THM’s post ignores the easiest options: unilaterally adopt the pound or the euro without being in currency union.

If you mean the so-called panama solution, well all sides have ruled that out as a non-starter and so would I. Totally inappropriate for Scotland (unless you are from the Adam Smith Inst, and that’s for very different reasons)

I think the only sensible option is for Scotland to create a central bank and separate currency & go on from there. Best for Scotland & best for the UK.

Could just adopt the Euro. Would also quash all that fudtalk about Scotland not being allowed into the EU.

Scotland would have to be prepared to help bail out failing countries, but the worst seems to be over now and they could perhaps negotiate some kind of cap.

Once they’d switched to the Euro, the next logical step would seem to be to switch to driving on the right….

EDIT: of course Scotland would have to give up a lot of fiscal independence to the EU, but it’s never been about money, it’s always been about being free of the English yoke. Even an EU yoke is preferable.

That goes a step beyond the West Lothian question!

😆

Turns out the scottish government did ask westminster to make a joint approach to the European Commission, the Scottish seccretary refused
Joint approach refused

Wonder how the PCS vote is going

Yes: 5775 votes
Neutral: 18025 votes
No: 0 votes

Good grief, just had a nosey at one of these online polls.

You can vote again as many times as you like by hitting the refresh button.

gordimhor – Member
Turns out the scottish government did ask westminster to make a joint approach to the European Commission, the Scottish seccretary refused
Joint approach refused[

It would be interesting to ask 100 people to read that old news item and summarise in one sentance. I reckon there would be (quite a lot of) different conclusions!

well all sides have ruled that out as a non-starter and so would I. Totally inappropriate for Scotland (unless you are from the Adam Smith Inst, and that’s for very different reasons)

When you say “all sides”…

It’s not a politically glamorous solution for Salmond or the rUK politicians.

THM BikePawl asked if the Scottish Government could ask Westminster to approach the European Commission. I thought that was a fair point so decided I would check up when I had time. So it seems an approach was made and rejected over a year ago.

But everyone seemed to agree that to do that, then you’d have to agree and put forward a precise scenario, so you’re back in the trap of pre-negotiation of a hypothetical ‘what if’ that no doubt certain people would be turning into a ‘this is what we have agreed’ – particularly in a situation when the SNP have still not published their independent legal advice on the issue, as they have repeatedly promised to do, despite the rUK government publishing theirs a full year ago.

Can’t help feeling its a ‘cake and eat it’ situation where they’re demanding things off everyone else, but not following through on their own promises!

Sure you would need to present a precise scenario or even 2 or 3 but that’s not difficult to do and even at this stage it could be done. More than a year ago there would have been plenty time. I don’t accept the prenegotiation point as that is exactly what Osborne has done on currency union.

FWIW, I blame Thatcher.

Depends what you are blaming her for of course, there is no doubt she created a mindset and attitude towards the Tory party up here.It will be at least a generation before the memory of the 80s/90s Tories government fades. Most new voters weren’t born during her tenure,but she/they are still hated up here. Mind you,they do make it easy…They voted against their own leader being allowed to marry recently.

gordimhor – Member
THM BikePawl asked if the Scottish Government could ask Westminster to approach the European Commission. I thought that was a fair point so decided I would check up when I had time. So it seems an approach was made and rejected over a year ago.

That is interesting, cheers for looking.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/push-for-scottish-independence-losing-momentum-1-3316371

The poll is interesting but that ICM changed their methods between the previous poll and this one. Prof John Curtice analysis[/url]

Any analysis of the other poll just out?

I’m not sure that helps.

😀

Duckman do you know that pic has linked to your photobucket account?

Currently trying to sort that out 😕

Can’t help feeling its a ‘cake and eat it’ situation where they’re demanding things off everyone else, but not following through on their own promises!

Cannot understand why, except to confirm your own political bias, you would single out just one political party leader for this criticism

They are all guilty of only presenting the evidence that assists them and /or spinning reality to support their position

It is not just AS doing this.

Its also very poor to do this when rUK wont negotiate and them blaming him for the uncertainty – it is not of his making [ though he is probably grateful and manipulating it]

Its also very poor to do this when rUK wont negotiate

The flip side is that the whole thing is still completely speculative right now, so no point worrying about the detail too much just yet. If the vote goes yes, there will be plenty of compromise on both sides.

Larry Elliot is not too impressed either:

But this is fantasy politics. The idea that after a yes vote, Scotland could quickly negotiate a currency union with the rest of the UK, and be accepted for EU membership without lengthy debate about such issues as whether Edinburgh would be eligible for a slice of the UK’s budget rebate, seems improbable. The misgivings of the Bank of England and the Treasury about a currency union are valid: the experience of the eurozone is that a currency union without fiscal and banking union is inherently unstable. In the case of an independent Scotland, the tensions would quickly become apparent because the country that formed the smaller part of the currency union would have a social-democratic bent while the bigger part would, by virtue of having lost Scotland, have a more conservative economic approach.

At the very least, there would be strict rules on Scotland’s fiscal autonomy, with curbs on the size of its budget deficit. These sort of arrangements have proved burdensome for the smaller members of the eurozone and a post-referendum Scotland would find them difficult to accept. Perhaps that is the point: Salmond may be playing a long game in which Scots find a halfway house arrangement so unpalatable that they go for the real thing next time.

For, make no mistake, this is a halfway house. There is a case for an independent Scotland, but it is not being made in the current campaign. It would be a strange sort of freedom in which all the decisions that matter are made in London. It is an independence of sorts but it is the independence of the granny flat.