Osbourne says no to currency union.

For some light relief, there’s a brilliantly-named group called The Hills Have Ayes who are putting huge Yes signs on various hills:

On more serious matters, it turns out that some people with postal votes have been receiving, in the postal ballot pack, a “Guide to voting No” – an official-looking leaflet showing how to put an X in the No box.

Which is not only patronising, it’s a very dodgy thing for whoever’s sending them out to put in with the official ballot forms.

epicyclo – Member

Meanwhile, back on the currency question, the £ is still tanking because of the threats by BT
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9696-citys-verdict-on-westminster-currency-threat-dont-write-cheques-your-arse-cant-cash#comments

Lol at that article.

First paragraph:

After 2 years of largely ignoring or laughing off the referendum, the City of London is finally waking up to the fact that the Scots will vote for independence. After all, who wouldn’t choose economic freedom?

Freedom. Control over your own affairs and economy. Got it.

Quote from Goldman Sachs he bases the rest of his article around:

“One of the main lessons from the euro area crisis is that a reasonably high degree of fiscal and/or financial integration is necessary, as a means of effective risk sharing, for a monetary union to work. Without political and fiscal integration, it is difficult to see the rest of the UK agreeing to provide a monetary and financial backstop to Scotland.”

Yet he says it is Better Together’s fault for not wanting rUK to enter into an unworkable currency union without this.

What is also clear is that contrary to what Unionists sadistically hope, any damage inflicted could never be isolated to Scotland. A Westminster-engineered breakup of the sterling union…

Ah yes, that’s it. Refusal of currency union is just a unionists sadistic hope to damage iS’s economy, engineered by Westminster. As opposed to rUK simply protecting their own interests.

@epic the currency moves have very little if anything to do with the currency union. The markets would hate a currency union fyi. The moves are more to do with the potential damage to the UK in the event of independence, a currency union would make that damage greater not less. The article is a fanciful peice written by someone with very little clue, he even quotes Goldman who are arguing against what he’s saying.

Anyone know what the Irish viewpoint is on this?

The Irish had a currency union with Sterling until the seventies, I think, when they gave up, at least in part because of the effect of North Sea oil on the UK economy.

Given that Scotland has gazillions of barrels of oil remaining, it seems like a bad idea to try to link our two economies in this way.

Meanwhile, back on the currency question, the £ is still tanking because of the threats by BT

That’s not really balanced informative journalism is it 🙄

The £ has been very strong against the $ for ages now. An fx of 1.63 isn’t low its just slightly lower than its recent high.

I’d be looking at the strengthening $ first before saying the £ is weakening 😉

Outside yS documentation that newsnet article has to one of the most economically and polticallly illiterate pieces written during this whole process. The confused state of the writer is there from the start – the buffoon talks about depriving Scotland of its own currency (has he followed this debate at all!?!) with not agreeing to a CU. And that is just for starters. Compete bllx

@tmh – if there is a more illiterate piece I haven’t read it and I would only do so for a laugh / stick in a scrap book of “all time bllx”

Chew – Member
…I’d be looking at the strengthening $ first before saying the £ is weakening

I’d be looking at what is actually happening to the pound rather than listening to spin.

This was a predictable result of the stand off on CU. I’ve said before that it is my opinion that Salmond has been using the CU as a red herring.

He would be only too aware that the UK would have more to lose than Scotland if he stood his ground against the threat. There’s no downside to the Yes campaign from this, Salmond benefits from being seen to stand up the threats, whereas the UK was letting Darling and Osborne expose its currency to what is now happening.

Prediction:
Salmond will now be hoping for a panic reaction in the government ranks in which they’ll messily take control of the Better Together campaign by ditching Darling and his Labour mates. This will have the effect of making the campaign a very visible Tory one, thus alienating the few remaining Labour faithful in Scotland and increasing the Yes vote.

jambalaya – Member
@tmh – if there is a more illiterate piece I haven’t read it…

Here’s a more literate piece then… :)[/url]

Of course, the pound sinking like a stone was previously forwarded as proof of why Scotland needed to be out of a sterling CU by a certain politician 😉

I’d be looking at what is actually happening to the pound rather than listening to spin

Only it isn’t spin. The markets have been expecting and predicting USD to strengthen vs GBP for months and in managing my employer’s FX exposure for the last several months I’ve been banking on it. The predictions have nothing to do with the referendum and everything to do with the US economy finally starting to come to life.

@epic – the move in sterling is absolutely nothing at all to do with a CU. A CU would be really bad for the GBP and for the UK, that’s why we are not going to have one. You are totally wrong in every way possible in saying that the UK has more to lose. The currency issue is 100% Scotland’s problem and one they have not faced up to.

Have you not seen the news about NATO today and the UK providing 25% of the ground troops. That has far more to do with a currency move.

With regard to your prediction – you are correct in parinig the word hope with Salmond as that’s what his plan is based upon as opposed to anything remotely concrete.

EDIT: Just seen your other link, the GBP has been very strong recently, easy to argue too strong (peak close to 1.72, its correcting back to more normal recent levels in the 1.60’s). This makes sense given the NATO issues plus further sanctions against Russia being likely (which will hurt the UK more than the US). the referendum has been largely ignored by the markets as they see it as a small side show (yes/no making not so much difference certainly in the short/medium term)

I re-read that linked piece again and in 35 years in finance its is the single biggest piece of nonsense I have ever read, that includes some research published in 2007 which said how strong the Icelandic Banks where.

jambalaya – Member

@epic – the move in sterling is absolutely nothing at all to do with a CU. A CU would be really bad for the GBP and for the UK, that’s why we are not going to have one…

You don’t have to convince me about the CU.

oldbloke – Member
Only it isn’t spin. The markets have been expecting and predicting USD to strengthen vs GBP for months and in managing my employer’s FX exposure for the last several months I’ve been banking on it…

That’s interesting. Markets move usually for a number of reasons. So you are sure the CU issue has had nothing to do with the £ decline at a time when we keep getting told our economy is recovering?

I’m asking because I moved a lump of cash out of sterling when they announced no CU, and have done nicely so far. I’m contemplating some more, but don’t have your level of expertise. I usually base my investments on actions rather than what is being said, and now I’m wondering if Cameron isn’t writing a cheque bigger than he can cash with the NATO commitment, so possible further weakness.

So you are sure the CU issue has had nothing to do with the £ decline at a time when we keep getting told our economy is recovering

You sure it is declining? It has recently been strengthening against other currencies I have to deal with like CHF, CAD, AUD. But hey, that doesn’t suit your argument, so it can be ignored. On the other hand you could go and read the various market forecasts from a few months ago which are now coming through. A bit late but still happening because of the reasons predicted and with the effect predicted.

Epic, in this I agree that the recent Short term movement is due to the prospect of higher levels of uncertainty surrounding the vote and triggered by the latest poll. Amusingly though yS supporting economists (including a very good friend of mine) were arguing on Monday/Tues that you can’t blame this on the close poll announcement (I disagree) and to do so was political stirring. Seems no one can make their minds up on this one. 😉

Still reckon buying vol is the best bet,

Not sure about our NATO commitment althoug radio was saying that we have dipped slightly below 2% of GDP, but perhaps you want a quick punt on defence suppliers and naval outfitters. Long Portsmouth property, short Faslane property (that’s a joke BTW!)

A NATO rapid reaction force has been vaunted since about, ooh, 2002, and never seemed to actually amount to anything other than on paper.

It will never be effective unless placed under direct NATO command without national veto, which is never going to happen!

It’s a slight tangent and there are other threads on this but love the fact that not only have we extended NATO eastwards against assurance given at unification of Germany and now this. And we wonder why the rUssians react in the way they do???

oldbloke – Member
You sure it is declining? It has recently been strengthening against other currencies I have to deal with like CHF, CAD, AUD. But hey, that doesn’t suit your argument, so it can be ignored…

The currency I work with is AUD (simply because I have a better chance of understanding the Oz economy). Check the movements. I haven’t imagined it.

Edit: Of course you’ll know the movements. Sorry, telling you to check them was rude.

But the £ is approx 10% down on the AUD in that time

Not sure where you’re getting your data from but theres noting unusual outside of normal currency fluctuations

Some Data

Chew – Member
Not sure where you’re getting your data from but theres noting unusual outside of normal currency fluctuations

I’m using XE Currency.

Just checked the 1 year chart. £1.00 got you AUD$1.87 at the beginning of March and latest is AUD$1.67

The currency I work with is AUD (simply because I have a better chance of understanding the Oz economy). Check the movements. I haven’t imagined it.

Indeed. Apologies. Quite why I wrote AUD when my brain told my fingers to write NOK is a concern as I don’t touch AUD. I’d better get that sorted before I pick up the ballot paper!

The others stand.

oldbloke – Member
Indeed. Apologies. Quite why I wrote AUD when my brain told my fingers to write NOK is a concern as I don’t touch AUD. I’d better get that sorted before I pick up the ballot paper!

You’ve probably picked up at some stage on me being from Oz.

Don’t worry about the ballot paper, I can advise you. 🙂

Pretty much sums up my point of view.

Yes, that’s very good.

A more serious video, here’s Andy Brough, Executive Director of Schroders Investment on the Bloomberg Channel:

He thinks Scotland will vote Yes, and that there will be a currency union.

I think this is a more learned analysis. Warning, this video contains swears, because it has scottish people talking.

Aye, that’s what we’re dealing with. Still, they plan to head south after a Yes vote – so sorry about that, England 😉

I just been at a dinner at a well known Uni with several MPs, one ex-minister and DTI types – castigating them for their lacklustre efforts at exposing the DO for what he is. 😉 There seems to be a general astonishment at how things have got so close – I prefer complacency and it’s been shocking.

The event was actually an international affair and our foreign guests were astounded at the whole process. Why would the Scots want to leave they asked….I am afraid they asked the wrong guy! Given that it was Tories and Labour MPs involved, they were in the same boat!!!

I gave them the link to STWs 1000 posts for enlightenment!!!

The Scotsman had a funny article about Johann Lamont getting comprehensively dingied in Govan. I say “had”, it’s inexplicably disappeared from the Scotsman website. Luckily it’s still here:

https://archive.today/oi5Qd#selection-1753.4-1753.50

😀

This is nicely done:

We’ll done indeed Ben! but when you are peddling BS it needs tricks and gimmicks to make it palatable. They will be painting YES on hillsides next 😉

Why take the piss out of Lamont – she could be running the whole show one day.

You’re a downer. I’m going to call you Deputy Downer from now on.

teamhurtmore – Member
We’ll done indeed Ben! but when you are peddling BS it needs tricks and gimmicks to make it palatable….

Urgent! Tell Project Fear that… 🙂

I am teasing Ben, it was a good dinner!

DD better than DO though!!!

Oops

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29087393

The SNP’s Derek Mackay said: …

“People across Scotland have already started casting their votes in the referendum – for them to be able to make the right choice they must be given the facts.

😆

Well Derek there are a few days left, better late than never.

The event was actually an international affair

what, English and Scottish people, then?

I’m slightly amused by the parallels of some of my Facebook friends coming out, in more or less exactly the same way as others came out about their sexuality. Just with a different subject matter. The sense of relief from them is palpable.

The Pie Street car stickers competition is still at 1-1, no window stickers at all. Lamp post stickers have (literally) peeled back from a 7-0 drubbing in favour of no. To a 2 – 0 in favour of yes.

I have to admit, I’m glad I got my postal vote away. Now I can get back to trying to not be a total arse, which requires considerable concentration tbh.

Its amazing,in his frequent dinners, CA has never met a yes voter.