Osbourne says no to currency union.

Latest Daily Record poll has Yes 47%, No 53%. Interestingly, if people are asked how they’d vote if David Cameron was going to be reelected, it switches to Yes 54%, No 46%.

So…the outcome depends on a few short-sighted numpties and David Cameron’s electoral chances?

Ben, that says a lot (excuse the irony there) about how this whole narratative is being framed.

It’s not about the man, on no wait…

The poll is here http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bombshell-daily-record-poll-shows-3678091 if you’re interested.

A total of 39 per cent plan to vote Yes on September 18, with just 44 per cent saying No.

Dear leader thinks it is partly a popularity contest. In interview a couple of days ago he was saying that it is not all about the message, but rather the messengers. Stating that messrs Sturgeon, Cannavan and Jenkins are far more popular than Darling, Cameron and someone else.

Well, they kind of are.

But as everyone knows, you shouldn’t play the man.

The leading edges on both sides of this debate statement of beliefs really are just a bunch of showers.

I would be far happier with a decisive majority result, but whatever happens. That seems extremely unlikely.

Stating that messrs Sturgeon, Cannavan and Jenkins are far more popular than Darling, Cameron and someone else.

Go on, name them without google.

So…the outcome depends on a few short-sighted numpties and David Cameron’s electoral chances?

Well, maybe – there are short-sighted numpties on both sides, though – worries about start-up costs and EU membership are pretty short-sighted.

I suppose the worry about Cameron isn’t so much that he wins one more election – it’s that the UK is the kind of country that looks at Cameron and all he’s done and decides they want more. Whereas people in Scotland don’t want to be part of that. He’s a symbol for how the UK has shifted to the right.

Scots will back independence if they think David Cameron will remain Prime Minister

Well since when asked the straight question they don’t back independence this presumably means that most Scots think that David Cameron won’t remain Prime Minister, that’s interesting, I can’t say that I feel particularly confident that he won’t remain PM, although I suspect that he probably won’t.

It also suggests that with less a hundred days to go a convincing case for the benefits of independence beyond “you won’t live under a Tory government” hasn’t been made. And to be fair nor has it on this thread.

So clearly the Yes camp’s best tactic at this late stage would be to focus on the likelihood of a Tory victory next year and denigrate Labour’s chances.

And of course if Labour do win in 2015 and Scots have opted for Yes it will simply add in the coming years to the woes of the nats, as they have to contend with a nation that were unconvinced of the benefits of independence beyond “you won’t live under a Tory government” and are disappointed by failed promises.

I suppose the worry about Cameron isn’t so much that he wins one more election

The Daily Record who’s poll results you posted suggests exactly that, ie, they are concerned that he will remain PM**, beyond that they’re not really that concerned. Are you disputing the findings of the poll you posted ?

** Presumably they are unhappy with Cameron because he is a Tory and would feel the same whichever Tory was leader ?

Well since when asked the straight question they don’t back independence this presumably means that most Scots think that David Cameron won’t remain Prime Minister

Um, no. It shifts by a few percentage points when asked how they’d vote if Cameron was definitely going to remain PM. That’s in no way “most Scots”.

It also suggests that with less a hundred days to go a convincing case for the benefits of independence beyond “you won’t live under a Tory government” hasn’t been made. And to be fair nor has it on this thread.

Maybe it’s not convinced you, but luckily it is convincing a lot of other people – getting rid of nuclear weapons, being able to control our own affairs for the benefit of people in Scotland, not being over-ruled by our larger neighbour matters to people. It remains to be ween whether it matters to enough people.

The Daily Record who’s poll results you posted suggests exactly that, ie, they are concerned that he will remain PM**, beyond that they’re not really that concerned. Are you disputing the findings of the poll you posted ?

No, read the rest of what I said.

worries about start-up costs and EU membership are pretty short-sighted.

On the contrary Ben – the track record of change influenced by Scottish Government shows nothing to support the ability to deliver either speed or low cost:

SNH relocation. Announced Nov 2001. Achieved summer 2006. Holyrood committee examining it later condemned both the inadequate justification for the move and the cost.

Creative Scotland. Its creation announced Jan 2006. Delivered July 2010. For the effective merger of two bodies! The waste of money and the lack of clear political leadership was frigtening.

So go on, please do list examples of public sector change in Scotland which have been managed at speed and low cost to justify your confidence in both the 18 month transition timetable and the set up costs.

Oh ok 🙂

So what are you saying – that Scottish people just aren’t capable of running a country properly? Because those weren’t SNP projects, they were Labour ones (and you can add in the trams and parliament too). I’m not a SNP supporter, but they haven’t made any big mistakes like that, have they?

But, even if you’re right and the start-up costs really are as bad as the Treasury’s 10x too big estimate, that’s still less than half what HS2 would cost Scotland. It’s 1/3 what the Trident renewal would cost Scotland. In the absolute, never-going-to-cost-that-much worst case, it’s still cheaper than staying part of the UK.

@ben the last Mori poll 10 days ago was No 56 Yes 34 Unknown 10. So those who have expressed a choice its approaching 2:1 in favour of No. If all the unknowns vote Yes the outcome is still No. Anyway polls can be quite fickle and no one is being complacent. Still a long way to go.

It’s no surprise AS and the SNP are focusing on Cameron as an individual, he is quite an easy target for left leaning Scotland given his background. It is no surprise that the Yes vote is stronger with the scenario that there is another Conservative government in the UK.

On another topic raised earlier I do think a Yes vote is a vote for AS as Prime Minister and I can see that would hurt rather than help the Yes campaign.

I am surprised at the important of the nuclear issue. Does it really matter whether they are based at Faslane or 5 miles over the border for example.

Yes, of course all polls must be taken with a pinch of salt.

I am surprised at the important of the nuclear issue. Does it really matter whether they are based at Faslane or 5 miles over the border for example.

Yes, for several reasons. For one, we won’t be paying for it, so can instead use the money for better things. For another, we won’t have the moral responsibility of having them. They won’t be 30 miles upwind of our largest city even if they are based 5 miles over the border.

So what are you saying – that Scottish people just aren’t capable of running a country properly? Because those weren’t SNP projects, they were Labour ones (and you can add in the trams and parliament too). I’m not a SNP supporter, but they haven’t made any big mistakes like that, have they?

They were decisions of the Scottish government of the day, you’ve already pointed out several times that this is a vote for Scottish independence, not an SNP administration, that the system was designed to avoid domination by one party, and that after independence the next government is most unlikely to be SNP led – so how is that supposed to reassure anyone that the huge mistakes and cost overruns are less likely to occur after independence?

So what’s special about a Scottish parliament or the Scottish people that we get huge mistakes and cost overruns? Westminster’s track record in that direction isn’t brilliant either 😉

So what are you saying – that Scottish people just aren’t capable of running a country properly? Because those weren’t SNP projects, they were Labour ones (and you can add in the trams and parliament too).

You’ve been quite clear on the need to separate the independence debate from SNP and how it could be any party in future. They were public sector projects. The SNP had the last 3 years of the Creative Scotland project to demonstrate their capability.

I live and work in Scotland in a Scottish Company which is proud of what it and its people achieve. Scots (and the Poles, English, Irish, Oz etc who are all part of the modern Scotland) are capable of wonderful things. But the capacity of the public sector change machine to get bogged down in procedure and consultation and decision avoidance should not be underestimated.

Anyhow, how about those examples to give us confidence it can be done quickly and cheaply?

So what’s special about a Scottish parliament or the Scottish people that we get huge mistakes and cost overruns? Westminster’s track record in that direction isn’t brilliant either

Correct, but it isn’t proposing change. The Scottish Government is. So it needs to demonstrate its capacity to deliver. Which it hasn’t.

the 18 month transition timetable

Is that remotely likely?

I reckon the UK 2015 General election will scupper that and I would have thought that they’d allow for it, I seem to recall Salmond asking for the election to be postponed 🙂 so they obviously knew there would be an impact but they’ve stuck with the 18 month time-scale

I can’t imagine much parliamentary work going on with an Independence bill much before Q3 2015

I think the 18 month timetable was more about trying to do it before the next Holyrood election than any thoroughly assessed timetable of what could be delivered when.

I think your assessment of the impact of the UK election is about right, but with an added ability for UK manifestos to cover negotiation points on what rUK would or would not agree to with an iS as it is inevitable that in the event of a Yes vote, the negotiating positions of the UK parties will be a significant factor in the election.

As part of the UK, the ‘shock’ of cost overruns are insured against and absorbed by a much greater and bigger government machine – a £500m cost overrun on one project is fairly inconsequential against an overall £729 billion per annum government budget – whereas a £500m overrun on the one project has a pretty drastic knock on effect on a £65 billion annual budget!

@jota180 +100

Nothing material is going to happen in terms of transition until after the UK election and thereafter the new UK government is going to have many other priorities. I see a transition as being a 3-4 year project and so it should be. As I posted before if there is a Yes vote I expect UK parties will make the negotiations an election issue, effectively asking the UK voters what their stance should be. I can imagine the Tories manifesto could be quite robust in that regard.

It’s no surprise AS and the SNP are focusing on Cameron as an individual,

AS is delighted no one has decided to do the same to him
This thread really is folk just moaning at the “other side” whilst defending “their ” side when they do exactly the same thing [ or they just deny they even do it ]

for example you ended with

I do think a Yes vote is a vote for AS as Prime Minister and I can see that would hurt rather than help the Yes campaign.

You can claim that but it is clearly the exact same thing you just claimed [ and obviously untrue]. A Yes vote is not a vote for the SNP never mind AS anymore than a no vote a vote for Cameron ?

You are THM and I claim my troll badge from you as well

You are THM and I claim my troll badge from you as well

haha ! Perhaps TMH and I should come for a STW “Referendum Ride” with your good self so you can see that’s not the case. No political talk though.

The AS comment I was responding to what others had posted. I do believe the SNP would be the winner in an independent Scottish election and I think there are Yes supporters who won’t vote for that outcome as a result. I fear for an iS with AS at the helm and in control of your tax and spending.

Duckman, I can’t remember who Salmond mentioned. I chose not to google it the time as I could not be bothered.
You could Google it for me, and tell me how much more unpopular they are than Sturgeon, Cannavan and Jenkins if you like.

less than half what HS2 would cost Scotland

I think we all know HS2 isn’t going to be delivered on budget so that’s even more of a saving for an iS, hopefully the prospect of having to pay for all of it will lead to it’s cancellation.

Well that worked for ID cards 😉

Problem is all the money that’s wasted before it’s cancelled – Universal Credit is going that way too.

According to the Huffington post a majority of english people would prefer to have a no win in the referendum than have England win the world cup.
Huff post world cup survey

I wonder what would happen if the same question was posed here?

According to the Huffington post a majority of english people would prefer to have a no win in the referendum than have England win the world cup.

Well a majority of just 1.

What an incredibly silly poll btw, I can’t imagine many of the respondents took it very seriously.

Meanwhile, how do people feel about the UK government spending £750,000 of taxpayer’s money on sending a leaflet to every home in Scotland telling us that there are no guaranteed further powers after a No vote?

(Okay, the leaflet doesn’t quite say that, but it doesn’t guarantee any more powers and the Scottish secretary has said any further powers would be a matter of negotiation.)

Small change when considered in the context of the total waste of money involved in the whole flawed process. Both sides proposing pretty much the same thing and yet we waste all this time and money pretending there is a genuine debate going on. A complete lot of tosh.

Both sides proposing pretty much the same thing

In what possible way is full independence pretty much the same thing as the status quo?

A sensible article in the Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/13/scottish-independence-change-england-more-jk-rowling

how do people feel about the UK government spending £750,000 of taxpayer’s money on sending a leaflet to every home in Scotland telling us……

I guess it’s part of the free mailshot which both sides are allowed to have so that they can put their case directly and unhindered to Scottish voters to help them understand both side’s argument and make a slightly more informed decision ?

Well I feel quite relaxed about it, I like the thought that Scottish voters can sit down in their homes and read the arguments put directly to them by both sides. Presumably you feel that this is the wrong emotion and people should feel outraged ?

I take it that you don’t like the thought of Scottish voters being allowed to read unhindered the No campaigns views and feel particularly incensed because you don’t like what the No campaign have put in their free mailshot ?

Correct, its worse, now you might get a foreign country running your economy!!

It’s an expensive comedy show – typified by your own side proposing policies that are completely incompatible with the idea of independence.

Well a majority of just 1.

Swayed by southerners and girls as well…best not do that punchline eh 😉

It’s not the No campaign who have done it, it’s the UK government, and it’s not paid for from campaign funds the way Yes Scotland and Better Together leaflets are, it’s paid for by UK taxpayers.

The UK government isn’t bound by the funding limits either, though it has said it will voluntarily comply with them.

Are you saying that the Yes camp aren’t allowed a free mailshot too, paid for by the UK taxpayer ?

If that’s the case it’s clearly unacceptable & must breach the rules laid down by the electoral commission.

EDIT : I’ve just checked and both sides are allowed one free mailshot which isn’t “paid for from campaign funds the way Yes Scotland and Better Together leaflets are”, it’s paid for by UK taxpayers.

I think this is probably a non-story.